New Versions of Older Exclusives - what does it mean to LEGO Investing

[c_rpg]

Just now, scuttfarkas said:

Carousel is 7+ years old.  UCS Falcon is going on 10+.  They're obviously going in a theme park/ride direction and STAR WARS is experiencing a resurgence.  It'd be bad business for them to NOT remake these....particularly if the buying public/AFOL/people who have come out of their Dark Ages are asking for cheaper alternatives to the secondary market.

Obviously they saw that 75105 has sold very well, so a UCS version of the Falcon should do well too.

I think with the Carousel they are seeing more sales for the Ferris Wheel than the Fairground Mixer, so maybe they want to play it safe this time and re-release something similar.

I'm honestly surprised we have not seen re-releases for modulars yet. Green Grocer perhaps?

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

Obviously they saw that 75105 has sold very well, so a UCS version of the Falcon should do well too.

I think with the Carousel they are seeing more sales for the Ferris Wheel than the Fairground Mixer, so maybe they want to play it safe this time and re-release something similar.

I'm honestly surprised we have not seen re-releases for modulars yet. Green Grocer perhaps?

They can still squeeze the modular theme dry with new buildings and by not retiring PS.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Val-E

[Val-E]

But I am sure we are not far from an Ideas type open vote over which "iconic" sets to rerelease.

[KShine]

4 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

I'm honestly surprised we have not seen re-releases for modulars yet. Green Grocer perhaps?

Oh, the Modular re-releases are coming - so don't act surprised.

[trekgate502]

[Val-E]

[jaisonline]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

I don't know that it will destroy the market, but it will stop $200 sets from going into the $1,000's.

what you and ed said plus killing the secondary market value of the original sets.  heck, it will cause "recession" for lego resellers.

[c_rpg]

4 minutes ago, Val-E said:

But I am sure we are not far from an Ideas type open vote over which "iconic" sets to rerelease.

They did it in 2000 and 2001 with some sets I think (without the community vote). Black Seas Barracuda and some others.

[jaisonline]

18 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

As I said the car thing was an example. I'm talking about a large group of people that have a large disposable income, not about one single person. If you go to a wealthy neighbourhood, people tend to drive nicer cars, have bigger houses and wear expensive clothes. You're making it sound like all rich people wear rags and drive a Fiat.

Was the old one designed by Jamie Berard? I think he did a fantastic job on the Ferris Wheel and Fairground Mixer in terms of mechanics, so if it's as well designed as those it should be great.

yeah, Berard's one of the elite designers.  he use to be a MOCer like some of us.  maybe that's part of the reason he hasn't had a flop yet (that i know of).

[Val-E]

When they run out of "ideas" it´ll be the next thing. Best of Excusives range, available for a limited period, retiring soon.

In the meantime, as long as no exclusives retired in the last 2 years are appreciating, the market is already being shaken up.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Val-E

[scuttfarkas]

Modulars are a tough call in regards to re-releasing them.  One one hand, I'd imagine that they'll EVENTUALLY get around to redoing Town Halls/Fire Houses/Cinemas.....truly unique and individual buildings that decorate a real city......but that will be fairly far down the line....but I don't know if it'd be any more profitable for them to redo a Green Grocer/Hotel etc. exactly as it was.    

 

ETA: You'll probably see more things like Farmers Market or Corner Coffee shop or something like that.

Edited April 21, 2016 by scuttfarkas

[c_rpg]

Just now, Val-E said:

When they run out of "ideas" it´ll be the next thing. Best of Excusives range, available for a limited period, retiring soon.

This is the most realistic scenario for a total market collapse.

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, c_rpg said:

This is the most realistic scenario for a total market collapse.

It has already started.

[Phil B]

 

37 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

This is the most realistic scenario for a total market collapse.

35 minutes ago, Val-E said:

It has already started.

Shamelessly copying @KShine:

[Val-E]

I´d say the tide is turning. Investors with boundless optimism about future values are getting fewer and further between every day. Brickfolio values don´t lie and it seems to be affecting older sets too.

Stock photo from a recent ebay lego reseller hangout.

 

Edited April 21, 2016 by Val-E

[Ed Mack]

8 hours ago, KShine said:

Oh, the Modular re-releases are coming - so don't act surprised.

Well, they ran out of ideas so they have to start reproducing the oldies.  Good ideas are just so hard to come by!

 

[Pseudoty]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

Oh, the Modular re-releases are coming - so don't act surprised.

10th Anniversary Cafe Corner now with interior 1/1/2017 

[Rimmit]

1 hour ago, c_rpg said:

As I said the car thing was an example. I'm talking about a large group of people that have a large disposable income, not about one single person. If you go to a wealthy neighbourhood, people tend to drive nicer cars, have bigger houses and wear expensive clothes. You're making it sound like all rich people wear rags and drive a Fiat.

You previously stated that you believed that the type of car someone drives is "a perfectly good indicator of how someone is doing financially."

I argued against that and my subsubsuquent posts never indicated people who are wealthy all wear rags and cheap cars.  I did argue that there is a difference between wealth and having a salary capable of buying nice things.

I am not sure how things were in 2007 in Belgium but the US had a housing bubble that burst due to thousands and thousands of people buying houses that they should not have ever been approved for and bought.  Just because the bank approves and finances something whether it be a car or a house does not mean you can afford it.  

In your country perhaps Belgians have more self control and only buy things they can truly afford, but here in the US that is not the case.   Many people here put off retirement, college funds, and savings just so they can buy a 5 dollar cup of Starbucks coffee every morning.

I deal with people in my job from all walks of life, and based on their appearance, purses, clothes, watches, cars, I have found that there is minimal correlation between how they look and what they own and there actual true income status, and even less correlation between that and wealth.  While I am not a mortgage broker, I do have access to addresses and other financial information, and it can truly be shocking sometimes seeing where people live and the kind of balances on accounts people carry.  I have had people that have it all including their own tanning bed at home and Coach purses and other luxuries on Medicaid (American govt. healthcare for low income families).  That is just one example.

This is not about "one single person."  This is about society.  3-6% if the households in the US have a net worth of a million dollars based on the state you live in.  While there are definitely pockets of wealth and zip codes wealthier people congregate, many of the people living in these high end neighborhoods are jurt trying to keep up, and vice versa for the lower socieconomic neighborhoods.

Lego is without a doubt a luxury item, and definitely more commonly bought by the middle-upper and upper class.  Just because people have iPads for their kids and buy 200 dollar legos does not mean they are wealthy.   Heck, my cleaning lady on Medicaid drives a nicer car than me and just bought a 65 inch 4k tv this last Christmas.

How this will affect the resale value and future of Lego investments due to remakes, who knows?

Edited April 21, 2016 by Rimmit

[SLL]

6 hours ago, Rimmit said:

All driving an expensive car means is that you drive an expensive car.

In the US the #1 car driven by a millionaire isn't a Ferrari or a Porsche, it's the Ford F-150.

Yes, we love driving muscle car A friend of my told me yesterday he just bought a brand new Ford F-150 for his college kid, a girl

[Val-E]

Actual American businessman with Ford pickup.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2016 by Val-E

[Ed Mack]

As a car wash owner for over 20 years in a varied economical community, I can tell you having a nice car is a personal choice more than a financial one.  Many people who can't pay their rents drive $100,000 cars and farmers who own hundreds of acres of valuable property and are real life "millionaires" drive pick up trucks.  I drive a pick up truck.  Why?  Because I like them.  Many people do.  They are functional, safe and fun.  Needless to say, it does have leather and navigation for my softer side, but I also added a leveling kit and bigger wheels and tires to keep it a truck.  

[oneknightr]

5 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

As a car wash owner for over 20 years in a varied economical community...  

I'm calling you Walter White from now on. 

[Ed Mack]

3 minutes ago, oneknightr said:

I'm calling you Walter White from now on. 

Let's hope not.  That didn't end well.  

[Darth_Raichu]

14 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

As a car wash owner for over 20 years in a varied economical community, I can tell you having a nice car is a personal choice more than a financial one.  Many people who can't pay their rents drive $100,000 cars and farmers who own hundreds of acres of valuable property and are real life "millionaires" drive pick up trucks.  I drive a pick up truck.  Why?  Because I like them.  Many people do.  They are functional, safe and fun.  Needless to say, it does have leather and navigation for my softer side, but I also added a leveling kit and bigger wheels and tires to keep it a truck.  

Plus it is easier to haul 4+ boxes of exclusives with a truck than in one of those sports cars with little to no trunks 

[SLL]

4 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Plus it is easier to haul 4+ boxes of exclusives with a truck than in one of those sports cars with little to no trunks 

Truck is meant for 40+ boxes