New Versions of Older Exclusives - what does it mean to LEGO Investing

[Ed Mack]

Puts things in perspective....LEGO is getting lazy with creativity.  

MOD EDIT: Generated after looking over this list posted here.

20 hours ago, meowsmeowsmeows said:

Some of these D2C sets have been discussed in their own topics, but I found this list on Eurobricks that CM4Sci posted a few days ago that may be of interest:

http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=129744&#entry2533889

10251 Brick Bank X
75257 Ghostbusters Firehouse HQ X
76052 Classic TV Series Batcave X
75098 Assault on Hoth X
21128 The Village
10253 Big Ben
10252 Volkswagen Beetle
71040 Disneyworld Cinderella's Castle
10254 Winter Train
????? Carousel
75159 The Death Star
75144 Snowspeeder

Sorry if this list has been mentioned before.  This seems to further validate the ideas of a holiday train set and UCS type of snowspeeder.  Curious about the Carousel D2C set as it may be a new entry into the fairground theme and/or be an update to the Grand Carousel. 

 

[dcdfan]

1 minute ago, Ed Mack said:

LEGO is getting lazy with creativity.

Absolutely. Agree 100%

[Darth_Raichu]

9 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Puts things in perspective....LEGO is getting lazy with creativity.  

Didn't I say that when they announced Winter Toy Shop remake ?

[inversion]

Maybe it's named 'Carousel' on purpose, without the 'Grand'. If it exists, I would guess around 2k pieces.

[Ed Mack]

9 minutes ago, inversion said:

Maybe it's named 'Carousel' on purpose, without the 'Grand'. If it exists, I would guess around 2k pieces.

Maybe.  We all better hope so.  

[KShine]

And the downward spiral continues

Although most LEGO fans, and investors don't have the original sets, and they will sell well - So can you really blame LEGO?

 

Edited April 20, 2016 by KShine

[Battrax]

10 minutes ago, KShine said:

And the downward spiral continues

Although most LEGO fans, and investors don't have the original sets, and they will sell well - So can you really blame LEGO?

 

 

Not sure I understand.For who? Collectors, investors/resellers, general buying public,  LEGO themselves?

[Zelgazra]

2 minutes ago, Battrax said:

 

Not sure I understand.

People are questioning Lego's creativity. By creating more remakes it leads one to believe they've run out of fresh ideas.... hence the downward spiral comments. 

[Ed Mack]

9 minutes ago, KShine said:

And the downward spiral continues

Although most LEGO fans, and investors don't have the original sets, and they will sell well - So can you really blame LEGO?

 

I have to agree.  Out of the original list of twelve, five are possible remakes with a terd in the Hoth Base.  The reissuing of iconic sets on a large scale is the worst possible scenario for the LEGO investing and reselling Universe. 

[Darth_Raichu]

28 minutes ago, inversion said:

Maybe it's named 'Carousel' on purpose, without the 'Grand'. If it exists, I would guess around 2k pieces.

 

18 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Maybe.  We all better hope so.  

Maybe it is a Friends Carousel to complete the county fair sets (roller coaster, hot dog stand, etc) ?  Since Ninjago got a D2C set, why not Friends?

[Ed Mack]

6 minutes ago, Battrax said:

 

Not sure I understand.For who? Collectors, investors/resellers, general buying public,  LEGO themselves?

 

[Battrax]

16 minutes ago, Zelgazra said:

People are questioning Lego's creativity. By creating more remakes it leads one to believe they've run out of fresh ideas.... hence the downward spiral comments. 

So a "downward spiral of creativity" is the concern here? As I deal with numbers all day and deciphering data for a living...  do we have any numbers that show that the  "unoriginal ideas" are a greater percentage of LEGO's overall portfolio than they have been in the years since restructuring (as the years right before that seemed to have almost completely been made up of badly thought out or executed "original ideas")? Is that even the best measure when we consider the breadth of themes and releases now that LEGO is a colossus?

Sounds a bit like the statement always made that "all LEGO does nowadays is sell specialised sets unlike when I was a child where we only had a few elements" which did not really pan out when it had been examined.

Or, maybe, going through the numbers would show an actual statistical trend towards tightening of the portfolia and separate lines with fewer variations between lines. Who knows?

13 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

 

As you've been dealing with LEGO sets as an investor for quite a long time, what do you feel is the concern? Devaluation of retired sets? Brand dilution? This may be a much bigger question, leading to many more questions, I am sure...

Edited April 20, 2016 by Battrax
I AM A TTYPPO EPXERT!

[Val-E]

I think it´s normal that every theme should have a flagship exclusive - why should it only be Creator expert (CITY for AFOLS) and Star Wars (Space for the nerdier AFOLS that spend hours overanalysing and complaining how many prints a limited Stormtrooper torso should have then collect them all anyway)?

In many cases, they are acquiring a license and want to wring every last dollar they can out of it (Disney business plan). Surprised they didn´t do a really big JW set, demand was there last year.

It´s also probably a way they can get back a share of the secondary market as they have seen people willing to pay 2 or 3x RRP for some popular retired sets so why not cater for those people by offering them more pieces for the same price if they can afford it?

Definitely a pity that there seems to be more rehashing going on and this will certainly continue to impact negatively on secondary market values for themes that now become vulnerable. On the other hand, done themes like Harry Potter, will continue to grow as their rarity value in a world of remakes increases - unless Lego decides to make a "best of" reissue series. Then we can all start popping seals and building what´s left of our portfolios!

 

Edited April 20, 2016 by Val-E

[Ed Mack]

Bottom line is this....If Mr. LEGO fan and collector (and throw in resellers) believe that a LEGO set is going to never appreciate like before, who is going to drop $400.00 on a box of plastic.? Sure, I love iconic and unique LEGO sets and would still buy a few, but if my buying habits change, what will the average LEGO consumer do? It's funny that I never see a regular family buy a big exclusive at a LEGO store. The LEGO Group's success has coincided with the creation of secondary market sites like eBay. The perceived value of a LEGO set on secondary market sites is a major success factor for the entire LEGO marketplace. It won't be a fast death, but a slow suck. Remakes on a large scale will kill the secondary market and will eventually hurt the bottom line of LEGO.

[Alpinemaps]

5 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Bottom line is this....If Mr. LEGO fan and collector (and throw in resellers) believe that a LEGO set is going to never appreciate like before, who is going to drop $400.00 on a box of plastic.? Sure, I love iconic and unique LEGO sets and would still buy a few, but if my buying habits change, what will the average LEGO consumer do? It's funny that I never see a regular family buy a big exclusive at a LEGO store. The LEGO Group's success has coincided with the creation of secondary market sites like eBay. The perceived value of a LEGO set on secondary market sites is a major success factor for the entire LEGO marketplace. It won't be a fast death, but a slow suck. Remakes on a large scale will kill the secondary market and will eventually hurt the bottom line of LEGO.

I was going to suggest that it would be an interesting analysis to see just how much of the line is "remade" year after year.  Is that a perception or is it reality?

But you hit the nail on the head - "believe"

Doesn't matter what the real numbers are.  But if the believe and the perception is that a consumer just has to be patient...

[yang]

If this is indeed Grand Carousel v2, then I will give up Lego investing and go back to be a normal Lego builder and collector. I know it's sad for the business, but to myself I'm actually happy I can finally get my hands on this set, since I missed the original.

Maybe they will also remake Taj Mahal and 10179......

[KShine]

5 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

I was going to suggest that it would be an interesting analysis to see just how much of the line is "remade" year after year.  Is that a perception or is it reality?

But you hit the nail on the head - "believe"

Doesn't matter what the real numbers are.  But if the believe and the perception is that a consumer just has to be patient...

It is not simply perception - Many lines have been crossed over the years, each time it starts with just a single instance, but then it has always expanded into becoming the new normal.

In the words of an old LEGO man (Bob Dylan) "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

 

[Migration]

31 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Bottom line is this....If Mr. LEGO fan and collector (and throw in resellers) believe that a LEGO set is going to never appreciate like before, who is going to drop $400.00 on a box of plastic.? .........It's funny that I never see a regular family buy a big exclusive at a LEGO store.

Who exactly buys them then? Only collectors? Resellers? Over the last few years I've purchased many large exclusive with high MSRPs and all of them came from kids that outgrew their collections. The parents that bought those sets for their kids don't give a .... about the secondary market. Their kids wanted something so they bought it. Lego as an investment will end only when kids no longer care about the product.

[Salimr]

I have bought many large used sets like you also. Almost all of them from kids going to college and want extra college money. I have even helped some of my friends teenagers organize and sell their expensive sets. Most my friends are scientists, engineers and doctors and did not mind getting their kids something they also enjoy.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Salimr

[Battrax]

I don't have really old sealed sets squirreled away so I don't have a dog in the reissue "Beetle/Grand Carousel keep for many many years because it will grow no matter what"  fight... but I would be really surprised if anyone here really hadn't expected a company to reissue successful products in addition to new ones if the market spells clearly that it would be good for the bottom line. If they wouldn't do the appropriate market research and see the blatant gaps in the market they could serve, especially if it is a product gone for many years, I would consider them incompetent.

That is something I consider with everything I buy that may have some sort of niche collectible value; doing it for LEGO sets I am squirreling away as well is not  different in any way.

The perceptions here I am sure are influenced by the fact that we scrutinise every little action, keep records of all past sets, see the similarities in the things that a consumer that views LEGO as just LEGO wouldn't care about. And all of us "prey" on the impulsive desires of people who want that set NOW no matter what the price. If it were that they just had to be patient...  they wouldn't have even cared to buy something at those prices to begin with. How many of those people would rather hold out for months or years sniping on eBay or chasing things down on Bricklink, second hand shops etc in the off chance that they will be lucky enough to find one instead of just plopping down the money? In fact I would say it is more likely they would buy something else instead of the set they originally wanted to tide them over.

 

P.s.

Cue the bubble thread. Amazed it hasn't been brought up yet.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Battrax

[KShine]

None of this is new news (just further confirmation) - Don't hold your sets forever.

[jbacunn]

My feelings are that as long as it's been at least 5-6 years since the original has retired, I don't have a problem with a remake. Investors should not be holding sets that long.

[fossilrock]

Here is my two bit opinion -  I think lego is producing too many sets at the moment, and it wouldn't hurt them to produce less.  When I go into walmart now, they take up a whole aisle.  No other manufacturer has that luxury and I think that tells me they are producing too much. There should probably be no more than 5 new exclusives per year.  One Star Wars exclusive set is enough, and i'd be ok with 3 over a 2 year span, but 3 in a year? Overkillin'.

But I got to say, if you haven't sold your grand carousel, snowspeeder, or VW beetle etc when it went 5x, well then that's kind of your fault.  It's like that old adage - you have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them.  

I would like to see lego drop the sets they produce by about 30%.   Sometimes less is more.

[Migration]

Great, I'll be singing Kenny Rogers for the rest of the night now.

[Mrbigz8657]

Everything I keep long term is for my own personal collection. Everything I can get my hands on is a full go on the sales front especially if we are talking 3x or more on the retail price.