10179: The Worst Thing to Happen to Lego Investing

[Rimmit]

"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."

 

I am not sure how many of you have read my postings over the last 2 months since I joined in January, so I will give you a very brief intro to my background.

 

While I am a relatively new Brickpicker member, I am certainly not new to this game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, UCS Tie Interceptors, UCS ISD, UCS Y-wings, UCS Snowspeeders, CTT, Cloud Cities etc.   While I was not an emazer level operation, I was running about 3,000-4,000 in volume on an average month and reached Bronze Powerseller level, so not too bad.  However, in 2007, due to life changes I started selling off my stock without reinvesting.  I cashed out and did not ante back up. 

 

Over the last 8 years since I sold of my last Clone Turbo Tank in 2008, I have peripherally watched the market.  I have seen various sets rise to proportions never thought possible (10179), and some falter secondary to remakes.  On occasion I would surf Amazon just to see what the lowest buy price would be, many times wishing I was still in it.  I would visit the Lego store when I happened to be in Disney World just to check out what sets were out, seeing the exponential increase in sets being produced.

 

In January, I happened to be walk into a Lego Store in a mall with my son, and was just shocked as to just how many licensed sets there were.  I was also impressed with just how accurate some of the newer sets were in likeness to the actual original model (Wall-E and Ecto01.)  Suddenly, I had this itch to get back in the game again, that I just could not resist.  Luckily, over the last year, several life changes had allowed me to pursue this endeavor again for the second time.  So I decided to get back into the game.  For the record, I did not get into the game because of a USA Today or WSJ article.  In all honesty, I am awful with politics and current events, so I had no idea how far Lego resale, or what is now called "brickvesting" had now become.  I had no idea this was even being covered on a national level, until I decided to start back into Lego Resale.

 

So I began googling about Lego sets, and to my shock, there were national news articles about Lego investing and even a WHOLE WEBSITE devoted to Lego Investing.  All I could think about about was how far this had come in 8 years.  From 2004-2007, there were minimal Lego and AFOL websites.  There was bricklink and fbtb.net, and the only big forum community was on fbtb.  And that was mostly Star Wars Legos without a whole lot about anything else.  Although, in all honesty, back then there were minimal exclusives, and really Star Wars Lego's were the only think worth investing in.

 

So I discovered this Brickpicker, and I just happened to get in at the time the Tumbler was retiring, so this place was on fire about the retirement of this Iconic set.  In all honesty, this set was the set that pulled me out of retirement as it seems like such a good investment.  I still believe the Tumbler is a great investment, however, reading the forums for the last two months caused me to realize just how much has changed in 8 years, and how much more difficult this will be now than it was from 2004-2007.  It took me a while to figure just what changed.  Lego's were such a guarantee before.  Ebay and the internet while young and in it's infancy was still a known commodity and widely available in 2004-2007.  People knew what items were selling for.  You could search completed listings and know that Lego's could net a good sum of money.  People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage.  Lego had ALWAYS been immune because it was not a fad.  It never had major publicity but was always reasonably popular.  So what changed?  As I read article after article, I finally noticed a pattern.

 

It was 10179.  This was the game changer, and quite frankly the worst thing to happen to Lego Investing.

 

10179 came out right about the time I was leaving my Ebay business.  At the time, no one would touch this thing with a ten foot pole from an investment standpoint.  It was already hard enough shipping 10030 ISD's.  When I would ship an ISD, I would go to the grocery store, get a ton of boxes, cut them up and jury rig some kind of cardboard container.  It was painfully time intensive.  How the heck was someone gonna find boxes for a 10179?  The weight, size, and investment of $500 (although it was pretty much permanently on sale around $400) was near insanity.  The most expensive set selling at the time was the UCS X wing and it sold used for about $450 usedand MISB around $650-700.  So how in the world was the market going to tolerate selling 10179 to make a profit.  This was even in a time when Ebay fees and paypal fees combined were about 6-7% if I remember correctly.  It was basically considered flop from an investment standpoint.  It was the Sea Cow of 2007.  Oh if we had only known what we know now. 

 

Many might ask, how could the single most profitable set of all time be bad for investing? 

 

10179 gave a face to Lego Investing.  Before Lego's were just a standard commodity like any other resalable collectable item.  Sure some sets might sell for a profit for 200-300, but lots of other collectibles do that.  I sold Art Asylum Star Trek Starships for a while and was buying them for $5 dollars and selling for $140-$150.  There are tons of reselling opportunities out there if you understand the market, and Lego was just another one like any other toy or collectible. 

 

However, 10179 brought it to the forefront.  It was the Honus Wagner and Mickey Mantle rookie card of the Lego world.  Those cards caused people to jump on to baseball card collecting like no other.  People would blindly buy baseball cards with no market research just because of those two cards.  Sound familiar?

 

The Mack's state in their webpage bio that part of what stemmed them building this website was 10179.  Without 10179 there would be no Brickpicker.  Without Brickpicker, there wouldn't be a USA Today headline bringing Lego Investing to the masses. 

 

10179 was what gave bloggers and article writer's a nice catchy headline.  "Lego's set sells for $5,000" "Lego's Brick's Better Than Gold Bricks."  From the moment 10179 took off, it was all downhill from there in the Lego Investing world.  10179 was basically the coming out party of Lego Investing.  People dream of making the big bucks.  People dream of hitting gold.  10179 gave people a tangible dream in the Lego Investing market.  Before then it was simply a faceless game that some people partook in. 

 

I would always get laughed at in any business meeting when people asked what I was investing in, and I told them once I had maxed out all other retirement options, I would probably put some in Lego's.  You can only imagine my stares.  Now with websites like this and USA today, and WSJ article's I have ammo now to defend my position.  Unfortunately, now with the ammo, it is even harder to defend the position.

 

So ultimately, 10179, has caused a spiral of events that will ultimately eventually bring about the end of Lego Investing.  Is that likely to happen in the next 10 years?  Not likely, but this site is adding 60 new members a day based on the number at the bottom of the main page. Albeit, not everyone is going to invest, and some might join just for the community, but there are some investors in that number.  The market is still very strong, and will always remain strong because Lego is not a fad, and Lego will always have demand.  Are you likely to lose in Lego Investing, like people lost big in baseball cards and beanie babies.  Not likely, unless you are just AWFUL at picking sets, and are completely impatient.  However, eventually a time will come, when selling just to cover your initial investment at RRP+Taxes will become standard for most sets.  

 

"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."

[stephen_rockefeller]

Interesting opinion.

[yang]

Well written! You opened my mind. Thanks!

[Dkc]

a very well articulated article.  Like you stated, I doubt Lego investing will be a money loser any time soon, but it is indeed getting harder and harder to make a profit.  I primarily sell on Ebay, and must have close to the lowest price to have a chance at selling when 50 other sellers are listing the same thing.  Furthermore, some investors have the luxury of tax-deductible shipping cost due to other business they own, which is a big advantage against an ordinary small timer like myself.  It comes down to working hard to acquiring sets at a cheap price and selling them at the "right" time.

Edited March 22, 2016 by Dkc