10179: The Worst Thing to Ever Happen to Lego Investing

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, c_rpg said:

That would be very valuable information. I'm sure there exists some data (brickfolio), but it is not available to normal users afaik

My most hoarded set is TH so maybe not such a valuable tool. I had more of other stuff but I sold them off when the price got to a happy place.

There is a list of the top 25 most hoarded sets on Bp from 2015 but I guess that data is not relevant anymore.

[Fenix_2k1]

19 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

Doon73's point is correct. When people are told to do research, where are they doing the research?  This site lays out every piece of information anyone needs to invest in LEGO.  Before this site, you had to figure it all out on your own. The barriers of entry for new people were greater before this site because there was no place to go where you would be told exactly what to buy, when to buy it, how to sell it, etc. Sure, it isn't a perfect science, but this site makes it way easier for an inexperienced person to come along and gather more than enough information to get going.  

Yes the site has information, but it doesn't have the answer.  It's no golden goose. Most of the old rules and guaranteed wins have gone out of the window and it will take time to find out what the new rules are. If someone really has spotted a niche in the market are they really going to tell everyone else? Very unlikely.

All the selling sites i go on, be it ebay, Gumtree, Schpock etc i see more and more evidence of investors getting impatient. Trying to sell off inventories in bulk so they can get out quickly.  So things are correcting themselves. 

Of course this will affect prices short term while the disappointed investors undercut to get out of dodge.

The real worry is the generic quick flippers.  They don't come onto this site, they don't go to any sites, they just see clearance shelves and clear them regardless of whether it's lego, mega blox or my little pony and then flip immediately for a quick buck.

 

[c_rpg]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

My most hoarded set is TH so maybe not such a valuable tool. I had more of other stuff but I sold them off when the price got to a happy place.

There is a list of the top 25 most hoarded sets on Bp from 2015 but I guess that data is not relevant anymore.

I think it's valuable data for looking at sets currently on the market or near retirement (speculative obviously). I wouldn't base a decision solely on that data, but it can give some insight in what might be good bets. I did say bet, because that's what you're doing when you buy 10pcs of an expensive set.

A few hours on the forums + common sense will probably give you almost the same info. And there's also bricklink, which gives you an idea of how fast a set is moving and how many stock there is. More data gives you a better idea of the market, but it's still a bet.

[thoroakenfelder]

7 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

The real worry is the generic quick flippers.  They don't come onto this site, they don't go to any sites, they just see clearance shelves and clear them regardless of whether it's lego, mega blox or my little pony and then flip immediately for a quick buck.

 

Hasn't this always been the case though? I mean it doesn't seem like something that has hurt things before. I can tell you that for years people have been flipping the clearance stuff and the newest stuff, and it only has short term affects on values. When something is newly released, the value goes way up until supply reaches equilibrium. When items go on clearance, prices depress, but that's not going to affect anything a year or more out.

[KShine]

4 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Yes the site has information, but it doesn't have the answer.  It's no golden goose. Most of the old rules and guaranteed wins have gone out of the window and it will take time to find out what the new rules are. If someone really has spotted a niche in the market are they really going to tell everyone else? Very unlikely.

I think you might be looking at things from more of a post Brickpicker world (which explains a lot).

Regarding someone spotting a niche in the market - Are they going to tell everyone else? Yes, they really do it all the time. Although at this point there are so many darts being thrown at the board, it doesn't really make that big a difference. 

[Phil B]

Personal experience (and you can look at my post count to see this): It takes a LOT of time to get really familiar with the ins and outs of LEGO investing. I've been visiting this site for about a year now, active member for 6 months, active investor (ok, parter-outer) for about the same time. I've read almost everything on this site. I've followed discussions. Only after about 4 months of active studying did I feel I got the hang of the game (and I'm by no means calling myself an expert). I keep detailed track of all my purchases (350 sets and counting so far) and my purchase history tells it all. I had a bunch of bad purchases in the beginning, which I'm hoping to spin into something good. A few purchases were lucky ones (Ghosts for $50 ). Also, I used to be excited if I got 20-30% off. Now 40-50% is the number I'm going for. I didn't even fathom that was possible 6 months ago.

To get back to the point: Just reading a few threads here is not going to make you a good investor. Sure, you can jump on the next Tumbler train once it leaves the station, but that's like a stockmarket novice buying stock in a company because they've read in the news it's the next big thing.

And as others have said: it is easy to amass a large collection of LEGO. Selling it for a good price is not so easy. Anyone can undercut of course, but that's only going to get you so far .... Net, because this game now requires a significant investment of time AND resources, I don't think we're heading off a cliff anytime soon. The well-informed get the good deals, and the well-talented and well-established get the best sales. Breaking into that requires way more time most people are willing to invest for a quick buck.

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

Sometimes, it seems as if there are posters whose sole purpose in life is trying to make my head explode.

We try our best

36 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

The real worry is the generic quick flippers.  They don't come onto this site, they don't go to any sites, they just see clearance shelves and clear them regardless of whether it's lego, mega blox or my little pony and then flip immediately for a quick buck.

 

Sorry, QFLL are always there, but the increased number of generic QFLL attracted to LEGO is what worries me

[wolvergeek]

You have to take the good with the bad in this hobby, and it is a hobby for most of us. The reason UCS MF is over $4000 is due to the media coverage and speculators. I remember a few years ago looking at the price of a new one on Ebay for $800 to $1000 and I just could not get myself to buy one. (or all of them) Kicking myself now. I had the capital but I just couldn't see spending that much on a Lego set. The most I had spent on a set was for 10188 DS when it came out because my son was really into SW Lego. I debated buying an extra one to keep sealed but in the end passed on it. That was 7 years ago!

I have recently gotten back into this because it is fun. It's fun chasing down clearance at Walmart or Meijer and when I do find something it is awesome. Here in the Metro Detroit area, we don't get the kind of clearance finds like some of you guys get. We are lucky to find 1 IAC or 1 IST on the shelf at 50% off.  I am grateful for the shared information because I have saved a lot of money on personal Lego buys by not paying RRP which I had in the past.  I do think making this site subscription based would be a decent idea as it would weed out anyone that isn't in this with their whole heart.

 

[Fenix_2k1]

16 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

We try our best

Sorry, QFLL are always there, but the increased number of generic QFLL attracted to LEGO is what worries me

I'm guessing this may be a regional thing.  In the UK, the cleared shelf phenomenon is definitely a new thing. It's only become prevalent here in the last year. 

[mauro23]

Life changes, best investment themes changes. There was a time when I have bought 20 Cafe Corners and 20 Green Grocers at S&H (still visible in my order history). 

A very good investment, afterwards everyone has bought the next modulars, beside the short term living TH the theme was no good investment anymore.

So I changed my focus to Ideas, bought a lot of MR, RIs but missed DeLorean, a (very) good investment again but afterwards the horde has also changed their focus to this area - see Ecto-1 hoarders. 

Now to make a very good profit you have to find another theme again... Perhaps back to the roots - Star Wars UCS...?

 

What I wanted to say is that to make a very good profit you always have to invest in things that are not heavily hoarded by others and these things have to be sought after when they are EOL... Difficult decision at all..

Edited May 23, 2016 by mauro23

[Phil B]

24 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Life changes, best investment themes changes. There was a time when I have bought 20 Cafe Corners and 20 Green Grocers at S&H (still visible in my order history). 

A very good investment, afterwards everyone has bought the next modulars, beside the short term living TH the theme was no good investment anymore.

So I changed my focus to Ideas, bought a lot of MR, RIs but missed DeLorean, a (very) good investment again but afterwards the horde has also changed their focus to this area - see Ecto-1 hoarders. 

Now to make a very good profit you have to find another theme again... Perhaps back to the roots - Star Wars UCS...?

 

What I wanted to say is that to make a very good profit you always have to invest in things that are not heavily hoarded by others and these things have to be sought after when they are EOL... Difficult decision at all..

Don't forget history bias here: You might have bough 20x CC and 20x GC, but likely you also bought 20x other sets which did not turn out to be big winners. Hopefully for you, the loss (if any) on those was easily covered by the gains on CC and GC, but I'm just trying to say that even then you had no real guarantee that those sets would do as well as they did .....  so for everyone new to this game: you'll need to be willing to gamble to pick winners.

 

[yang]

5 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Don't forget history bias here: You might have bough 20x CC and 20x GC, but likely you also bought 20x other sets which did not turn out to be big winners. Hopefully for you, the loss (if any) on those was easily covered by the gains on CC and GC, but I'm just trying to say that even then you had no real guarantee that those sets would do as well as they did .....  so for everyone new to this game: you'll need to be willing to gamble to pick winners.

 

If it becomes gambling, then why Lego? 

[KShine]

3 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Don't forget history bias here: You might have bough 20x CC and 20x GC, but likely you also bought 20x other sets which did not turn out to be big winners. Hopefully for you, the loss (if any) on those was easily covered by the gains on CC and GC, but I'm just trying to say that even then you had no real guarantee that those sets would do as well as they did .....  so for everyone new to this game: you'll need to be willing to gamble to pick winners.

But there were no losses.

Sets wouldn't double overnight, but they would almost all go up steadily from the buy-in price.

[yang]

50 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Life changes, best investment themes changes. There was a time when I have bought 20 Cafe Corners and 20 Green Grocers at S&H (still visible in my order history). 

A very good investment, afterwards everyone has bought the next modulars, beside the short term living TH the theme was no good investment anymore.

So I changed my focus to Ideas, bought a lot of MR, RIs but missed DeLorean, a (very) good investment again but afterwards the horde has also changed their focus to this area - see Ecto-1 hoarders. 

Now to make a very good profit you have to find another theme again... Perhaps back to the roots - Star Wars UCS...?

 

What I wanted to say is that to make a very good profit you always have to invest in things that are not heavily hoarded by others and these things have to be sought after when they are EOL... Difficult decision at all..

Okay, here are my takes by themes:

Ideas: Dead, look at Exo suit, birds (in us market), Big Bang...

Modulars: Dead, PC, PS, PR are all heavily hoarded.

Architecture: Mostly Dead, look at the discounted sets everywhere. Only exception is fallingwater?

SuperHero: Dead. Look at Tumbler.

Technic: Maybe Dead. I actually like this theme the most, but look at the situation: discounted sets everywhere, not good appreciation after retirement for a lot of sets.

City and Friends: Super Dead!

Landmarks: Not sure. Long life, heavily hoarded, but they are really good sets.

Creator: Not sure. T1, F40 are heavily hoarded.

Star Wars: Maybe the only theme alive. But I think DS, EV and SC will determine its fate. And look out to those possible remakes.

Anything I missed?

Edited May 23, 2016 by yang

[mauro23]

4 minutes ago, KShine said:

But there were no losses.

Sets wouldn't double overnight, but they would almost all go up steadily from the buy-in price.

Correct, I have not made any losses at this time because this was simply impossible...

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, yang said:

Okay, here are my takes by themes:

Ideas: Dead, look at Exo suit, birds (in us market), Big Bang...

Modulars: Dead, PC, PS, PR are all heavily hoarded.

Architecture: Mostly Dead, look at the discounted sets everywhere. Only exception is fallingwater?

SuperHero: Dead. Look at Tumbler.

Technic: Maybe Dead. I actually like this theme the most, but look at the situation: discounted sets everywhere, not good appreciation after retirement for a lot of sets.

City and Friends: Super Dead!

Star Wars: Maybe the only theme alive. But I think DS, EV and SC will determine its fate. And look out to those possible remakes.

Anything I missed?

I can still double my money out of all those themes if my buy in is good and I buy the right sets. I´d add Ninjago and Chima as sketchy alternatives and SH is definitely the riskiest.

[Crustybeaver]

3 minutes ago, yang said:

Okay, here are my takes by themes:

Ideas: Dead, look at Exo suit, birds (in us market), Big Bang...

Modulars: Dead, PC, PS, PR are all heavily hoarded.

Architecture: Mostly Dead, look at the discounted sets everywhere. Only exception is fallingwater?

SuperHero: Dead. Look at Tumbler.

Technic: Maybe Dead. I actually like this theme the most, but look at the situation: discounted sets everywhere, not good appreciation after retirement for a lot of sets.

City and Friends: Super Dead!

Star Wars: Maybe the only theme alive. But I think DS, EV and SC will determine its fate. And look out to those possible remakes.

Anything I missed?

Dead is harsh. Tumbler is selling for £230 on UK eBay, even if bought at retail that kind of profit for a six month retirement kicks the life out of any high interest savings account. Yes there's exponentially more choice for buyers on the secondary market as each year passes which in turns waters down profits but the patient folks will be rewarded 

[Sfcommando14]

If it becomes gambling, then why Lego? 

Because you can't play with your loss or break-even sports gambling tickets

And it isn't gambling, it's investing. Any investor should have a diverse portfolio, and with buying discounted there are far fewer losses than traditional gambling or investing and far more break-evens that don't detract from the profit margin.

Buying 20 Pet Shops for full retail without discounts/coupons/2x VIP/valuable promo is just bad investing. Buying less quantities of more diverse items (across varied price points) and taking advantage of the cost mitigation tools just mentioned should make this FAR superior to "gambling". But I'm new so take this optimism with a handful of salt if you wish.

[yang]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

I can still double my money out of all those themes if my buy in is good and I buy the right sets. I´d add Ninjago and Chima as sketchy alternatives and SH is definitely the riskiest.

I think at least right now EU market is better than US for investors.

[Val-E]

Just now, yang said:

I think at least right now EU market is better than US for investors.

Can´t see your country flag but, probbly right! Hate to be a US investor right now.

[Phil B]

20 minutes ago, yang said:

If it becomes gambling, then why Lego? 

Anything that doesn't give you a guaranteed return becomes a gamble in my books. At least by acknowledging this I won't be disappointed if returns don't pan out as prospected. And yes, I'm dabbling in LEGO reselling/investing because I love LEGO - worst thing that can happen is that I have a lot of LEGO parts to build MOCs with.

[yang]

4 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Can´t see your country flag but, probbly right! Hate to be a US investor right now.

I'm in US and I'm doomed.

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, yang said:

I'm in US and I'm Trumped.

fixed!

[yang]

8 minutes ago, Val-E said:

fixed!

Trump: Make Lego Investment Great Again!

Edited May 23, 2016 by yang

[feed]

20 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Anything that doesn't give you a guaranteed return becomes a gamble in my books. 

Nothing has a guarantee return. As return offered is a function of the risk of return, and if you think you’ve found something that does, then it’s mis-priced.  What to look for is a risk/return ratio that is favourable.  When actually gambling and I once was a semi-professional gambler (before the online books got sharp) the aim was to look for mispriced odds. Where the odds offered are out of line with the probably of the event occurring and even then you only have to be right 51% of the time, assuming you get your units correctly managed.  

Anyway, the current risk/return ratio on Lego is still incredibly favourable, in many cases the worse-case scenario is a no or low loss risk weighted against a sizeable upside opportunity.  And the reason for this is that Lego “investing” is rarely more than retail arbitrage with Lego as a vehicle to monetize the marketing incentives and discounts offered by big box retailers trying desperately to compete with each other and Amazon.