10179: The Worst Thing to Ever Happen to Lego Investing

[gregpj]

39 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

Thanks. 

In actuality, the pictures from 8 years ago were not "deals of the century."  Those were just the STANDARD deals back then.  In today's market it would be the deal of the MILLENIUM.

Sorry for the novels, but I try to convey my thoughts in a well thought out manner so as to avoid confusion.  Communication is the number one reason for mistakes and misunderstandings in almost any field of life, and good communication reduces errors and conflicts dramatically especially with the wife/SO.  Good communication keeps your feedback ratings high as well.

In all honesty,  I am just flat out MIND BLOWN, by what has happened in 8 years.  I joined onto here, with minimal forum reading, all super enthusiastic to get back into Lego Resale.  I ante'd back buying the Tumbler, as based on my 2004-2007 experience it would be a home run. I still believe it will be, but it will not be a home run by 2004-2007 standards.  However, after 2 months on here, I quickly realized, that this is NOT the same as it was in 2007, and I cannot expect the same returns and appreciation as I had previously experienced.  The market has changed significantly since 2007, and is changing RAPIDLY since 2012 and the startup of Brickpicker.

I was simply attempting to provide a historical perspective, especially, for all the newbies out there who might think another 10179 is a possibility, because it is not.  It is an enigma on the market, and will NEVER be recreated, and quite frankly the catalyst to the eventual fall of Lego Investing as being a HIGHLY lucrative market.  It will always make money if you are smart, but we will never be able to recreate the previous gold rush days.  If you came into this now expecting to hit the next 10179, you are in for world of disappointment. 

I'm harassing you about the lengthy posts, but yes I do appreciate that you write in complete sentences, use proper grammar, and have more substance in your posts than "I hate that set" or "my box is creased," I've got a few less-than-helpful posts under my belt, but I try to not let it be every single one. Also, not everything has to be rainbows and unicorns or a Dickens novel to be useful, but I think some members should just keep a word document of their last half dozen posts and just copy & paste into the different threads.

BTW If I haven't officially said it, I hate that picture of the snowspeeders... I am truly jealous of that. For some odd reason, the snowspeeder was always my favorite Star Wars vehicle and I can't bring myself to get anything other than the micro version since I want the UCS version instead. I am being totally selfish, but I really hope the remake happens and is awesome.

[jeff_14]

2 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

I just watched "The Big Short" the other night. Good stuff...

That should have been a best picture Oscar. If you need another recommendation, find Margin Call. It's about a fictional brokerage firm that decides to unload everything when they are first to anticipate the coming crash. What a cast - Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany, Zachary Quinto, Jeremy Irons, Demi Moore, Simon Baker. Stanley Tucci.  http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1615147/

3 minutes ago, gregpj said:

I'm harassing you about the lengthy posts, but yes I do appreciate that you write in complete sentences, use proper grammar, and have more substance in your posts than "I hate that set" or "my box is creased," I've got a few less-than-helpful posts under my belt, but I try to not let it be every single one. Also, not everything has to be rainbows and unicorns or a Dickens novel to be useful, but I think some members should just keep a word document of their last half dozen posts and just copy & paste into the different threads.

BTW If I haven't officially said it, I hate that picture of the snowspeeders... I am truly jealous of that. For some odd reason, the snowspeeder was always my favorite Star Wars vehicle and I can't bring myself to get anything other than the micro version since I want the UCS version instead. I am being totally selfish, but I really hope the remake happens and is awesome.

I feel you. I have been hoping for a remake for a while, but didn't let that stop me from getting all the various ones they've done over the years. I have a 4 unit squadron now if any more AT-ATs show up.

[Guest]

I am done buying for investment. I only buy for personal use or gifts now. I figure I have about 3-4 years of selling the inventory I have and I will walk away. I only have a handful of sets produced in 2015 and none from this year. I honestly can't wait to be done with it.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Haay said:

If you only get 0.7% interest offered by the bank, making just 5% profit (after costs) on Lego investment sounds already great.

But see I make that 0.7% sitting on my ass doing nothing. Is it really worth it to work an extra 30 hours a week for that extra 4%?

[Sprocket77]

5 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

But see I make that 0.7% sitting on my ass doing nothing. Is it really worth it to work an extra 30 hours a week for that extra 4%?

Oh come on, I know you're down on everything Lego investing at the moment, but who's doing this and only coming out with 5%? Realistically if you're on here and not making at least 25% per year in a bad year then you need to find a new place for your money. So try comparing the 0.7% to a return of 25%+ and it becomes a lot more worthwhile.

Edited March 23, 2016 by Sprocket77
Wrong %

[Fenix_2k1]

1 hour ago, gregpj said:

I still love LEGO and enjoy most of what gets posted/goes on here on BP. I just don't get how some members can be so negative all the time... It tires me out just reading their posts never mind thinking it!

If that is the case, why would you even start reading a thread with the title this one has.  What discussion did you expect really?

Fair enough, you're getting tired of it being all over the place but the clue for this one is in the title.

And is the discussion actually negative? Ups and downs happen.  A lot of the interest will wane over time, the market will right itself and there will always be opportunity for the people who put the effort in, just have to approach things differently. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Oh come on, I know you're down on everything Lego investing at the moment, but who's doing this and only coming out with 5%? Realistically if you're on here and not making at least 25% per year in a bad year then you need to find a new place for your money. So try comparing the 0.7% to a return of 25%+ and it becomes a lot more worthwhile.

I didn't come up with the 5% number. I was quoting someone.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

If that is the case, why would you even start reading a thread with the title this one has.  What discussion did you expect really?

Fair enough, you're getting tired of it being all over the place but the clue for this one is in the title.

And is the discussion actually negative? Ups and downs happen.  A lot of the interest will wane over time, the market will right itself and there will always be opportunity for the people who put the effort in, just have to approach things differently. 

Exactly. I get tired of hearing people ***** and moan about other's posts. There is an ignore function for a reason. Also, no one has forced anyone to read anything. Some people just need to get over their selves. Opinions differ. Deal with it.

[gregpj]

1 minute ago, MarxMarvelous said:

Exactly. I get tired of hearing people ***** and moan about other's posts. There is an ignore function for a reason. Also, no one has forced anyone to read anything. Some people just need to get over their selves. Opinions differ. Deal with it.

Word. Oh yeah, right, it's you again... Don't you have some moaning and groaning to do in the DD thread about Walmart?

My point is this.... And I'll leave it right here...  If you guys want to be negative all the time, go for it, but don't expect other members of the board to put up with your crap. And that's not even being written as a person with access to the "Delete Post" option.

16 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

If that is the case, why would you even start reading a thread with the title this one has.  What discussion did you expect really?

Being an optimist, I guess I just hoped for something better... but the resellerd strikes again!

Oh and as a member and mod, I try to read everything. That way I'm not talking out of my ass about things.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

7 hours ago, Val-E said:

As you mention, people with capital will have an advantage over the savvy bargain hunters so I don´t see that as levelling the field - having disposable income will give you an advantage to a) increase your porftolio b: long term hoard with no liquidity pressure to sell up before time. When heavy discounts are available, people with less money but more time or better skills can compensate for their lack of capital by acquiring more for less.

It also contributes to the bubble threat as it offers people less opportunity to get out at different moments - having 60 DS´s bought at different prices means not flooding the market with them all at once as you can let the cheaper ones go earlier when it is easier to sell them and keep the more expensive ones for later when scarcity occurs. If everyone paid fulll price then you are basically waiting for the first ones to crack under pressure and sell short or that noone lists anything so that there is an apparent scarcity. Then the price may well go up and everyone will want out at the same time, bringing it back down again (see Town Hall).

Finally, it is riskier as the longer you keep the item, the more likely a remake/reissue will come out.

In the case of the DS, we are in a good position as it is the original and sole version - if people want one they have to buy 10188 or nada. If the new one is a) based on a sgnificantly different design or b: is inferior in terms of design or size thenit shouldn´t affect the old one and will probably help it.

In my original post, I stated Exclusives,  Sets that can not, according to Lego, be discounted by any retailer.  
Therefore it levels the pricing field, every investor has the same buy in.  
Making the Capital & Patience an advantage.

BTW, do you really think that person with 60 DS gives a crap about making $100-$200 per set?
Oh my god, I need to buy lunch tomorrow, better list that DS for $575.

The only true Remake in this Exclusive Wheelhouse is the Red5, Which I was reluctant to go heavy on (only 10), Isn't doing so bad$.

[KShine]

 

[redcell]

30 minutes ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

In my original post, I stated Exclusives,  Sets that can not, according to Lego, be discounted by any retailer.  
Therefore it levels the pricing field, every investor has the same buy in.  
Making the Capital & Patience an advantage.

BTW, do you really think that person with 60 DS gives a crap about making $100-$200 per set?
Oh my god, I need to buy lunch tomorrow, better list that DS for $575.

The only true Remake in this Exclusive Wheelhouse is the Red5, Which I was reluctant to go heavy on (only 10), Isn't doing so bad$.

MBS is spot on in this assessment.  When everyone was bitching and moaning when TLG first announced the ban on discounts on exclusives, I wasn't quite doing cartwheels, but I viewed it as a good thing for resellers.  When pricing is as stable as it is with exclusives these days, you can buy in at any given point in time without fear of having to compete with resellers whose buy-in was 50% of yours.  For a reseller who likes to push volume, this gives you the ability to build up a much larger supply without fear rather than having to scramble when a good deal pops up.  I think that it has worked out pretty well in this regard, although the market for exclusive has definitely tightened given the dramatic increase in supply caused by all of the new resellers getting in on the action.

[Manse1001]

I'm quite new to the investing game (only a few years) and even newer to this website, but I'm not new to lego.

Some of the negativity is hard to read, and sometimes it's like everyone wants the bubble to burst just to get rid of the dross so we can all start a fresh again, but like any investment be it wine, gold, art, property it will always have its ups and downs.  It easy for newbies to jump on the band wagon after reading a few cleverly worded articles in the Media and think they are going to make a quick buck, but like all things, it will become a fad to them because they will soon realise it didn't pan out like they once thought, they actually have to do some research to make their money, they need to outlay money that actually haven't got, they will then be quick to off load what little stock they have (probably Tumblers) at pretty much RRP and won't return again because in reality they actually had no love for the product they was investing in, which is where the majority of us differ !!

For me, I love lego, I love reading about it, I love building it, I loved taking me son to Legoland yesterday (probably more than he did) !! I love the product !

So my attitude towards investing is obviously be sensible regards your choices, but if you are worried then only invest in sets that you have an interest in, and therefore if they don't rise in price like you once hoped, then at least you can still build them again in the future!! I'm not a big player like some on here, 60 DS, I'd have to re-mortgage.  But I tend to only buy a few of each exclusive that I feel will do well and if I can sale one in the future to cover the costs of my hobby then I'm happy, I didn't get into this game so I could give up my day job ! At worst case scenario, I hope to sale off used sets for not much less then I originally purchased them for if done right.  Regards the smaller sets, yes if I see Ecto 1 with 50% off I may gamble and buy half a dozen, but again if the ‘bubble bursts’ it won't be as hard to sale them again at RRP and cover costs!

How many other toys can you say that about? I bought my son a Hasbro Millennium Falcon at xmas for about £120 !!! Rip off, but that is what he wanted, give it a year I’ll be selling it at a boot fair for £5 if I’m lucky !!

Edited March 23, 2016 by Manse1001

[wolvergeek]

10 minutes ago, Manse1001 said:

I'm quite new to the investing game (only a few years) and even newer to this website, but I'm not new to lego.

Some of the negativity is hard to read, and sometimes it's like everyone wants the bubble to burst just to get rid of the dross so we can all start a fresh again, but like any investment be it wine, gold, art, property it will always have its ups and downs.  It easy for newbies to jump on the band wagon after reading a few cleverly worded articles in the Media and think they are going to make a quick buck, but like all things, it will become a fad to them because they will soon realise it didn't pan out like they once thought, they actually have to do some research to make their money, they need to outlay money that actually haven't got, they will then be quick to off load what little stock they have (probably Tumblers) at pretty much RRP and won't return again because in reality they actually had no love for the product they was investing in, which is where the majority of us differ !!

For me, I love lego, I love reading about it, I love building it, I loved taking me son to Legoland yesterday (probably more than he did) !! I love the product !

So my attitude towards investing is obviously be sensible regards your choices, but if you are worried then only invest in sets that you have an interest in, and therefore if they don't rise in price like you once hoped, then at least you can still build them again in the future!! I'm not a big player like some on here, 60 DS, I'd have to re-mortgage.  But I tend to only buy a few of each exclusive that I feel will do well and if I can sale one in the future to cover the costs of my hobby then I'm happy, I didn't get into this game so I could give up my day job ! At worst case scenario, I hope to sale off used sets for not much less then I originally purchased them for if done right.  Regards the smaller sets, yes if I see Ecto 1 with 50% off I may gamble and buy half a dozen, but again if the ‘bubble bursts’ it won't be as hard to sale them again at RRP and cover costs!

How many other toys can you say that about? I bought my son a Hasbro Millennium Falcon at xmas for about £120 !!! Rip off, but that is what he wanted, give it a year I’ll be selling it at a boot fair for £5 if I’m lucky !!

For most of us you should invest in things you enjoy to collect. That way if there were to be a bubble burst, you will still be enjoying your collection just not making huge profits on selling it.  I love building and collecting Lego's among other hobbies. I have seen the doom and gloom threads on other forums like graded comic books and original art. I have been reading about bubbles bursting for over 10 years on those markets and they haven't happened. 

Don't get me wrong, common items don't do as well as coveted items, but there are winners and losers in every hobby just like Lego. For me, I avoid most prequel sets and all Friends sets. My daughter built friends sets. We had almost 30 sets. I was disappointed the resale value wasn't as good on them as other sets but she enjoyed them while we had them. Now she has moved on to modulars with my wife fortunately so we can stop buying Friends.

[Val-E]

50 minutes ago, redcell said:

MBS is spot on in this assessment.  When everyone was bitching and moaning when TLG first announced the ban on discounts on exclusives, I wasn't quite doing cartwheels, but I viewed it as a good thing for resellers.  When pricing is as stable as it is with exclusives these days, you can buy in at any given point in time without fear of having to compete with resellers whose buy-in was 50% of yours.  For a reseller who likes to push volume, this gives you the ability to build up a much larger supply without fear rather than having to scramble when a good deal pops up.  I think that it has worked out pretty well in this regard, although the market for exclusive has definitely tightened given the dramatic increase in supply caused by all of the new resellers getting in on the action.

If everyone has the same buy-in then there will be a convergence in the sell-out price too. The market needs to be tiered and that some people are able to get out sooner because their buy-in permits them to.

I understand that if 100 people buy the same set at the same price, they might well have different sell targets but the range will be much more limited. Couple this with a few poorly timed reissues from TLG and we´ll get a *situation* when everyone runs for the door at the same time.

Edited March 23, 2016 by Val-E

[Phil B]

Alright .. but isn't a bubble where resellers are buying from resellers at inflated prices in the hope/conviction that product will only continue to climb - ideally while taking up credit to make the purchase? People selling en masse alone does not a bubble make .... as long as buyers are end-users. That's just a market correction.

Edited March 23, 2016 by Phil B

[Val-E]

6 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Alright .. but isn't a bubble where resellers are buying from resellers at inflated prices in the hope/conviction that product will only continue to climb - ideally while taking up credit to make the purchase? People selling en masse alone does not a bubble make .... as long as buyers are end-users. That's just a market correction.

B word duly edited!

[Alpinemaps]

This thread is getting dangerously close to being the Bubble Thread, Part 2.  The discussion about the Bubble is far outweighing any discussion specific to this blog post.

I get that it naturally evolved into that conversation, but it's getting hard to see the line.  Please try to direct your comments to the specific blog post.  Otherwise, I'll move posts to the Bubble thread.

[johnwray]

23 hours ago, Rimmit said:

People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage.  Lego had ALWAYS been immune because it was not a fad. 

Magic Cards are doing just fine—arguably better now than at any point in their history.

In fact, in terms of collectibles I think they're the best comparison to Lego out there. Baseball cards and Beanie Babies have no intrinsic value because they just sit there. Magic and Legos, on the other hand, continue to be popular and valuable because A] people actually play with them and B] they're consumable. For every hundred sets that Lego sells, most of them get opened by kids and vanish from the reseller market. That's true of post-EOL sets, too. Most AFOLs buy old sets to build and display them which takes them off the market and increases scarcity. It takes longer now, but the overall pool of unopened sets does shrink over time. All of that can be said of Magic cards, too. People buy them to play with them, which takes them off the market. Add to that the popularity of organized tournaments and "Friday Night Magic", and all of the new Magic sets sell well too. Both Lego and Wizards of the Coast have been smart about protecting their brand, the playability of their product, and not overproducing. Sometimes they reprint old sets/cards, but most of the time they don't.

Trust me, Magic players feel the same way about the "Power Nine" as Lego enthusiasts do about the UCS Falcon. Why didn't I buy more when they were available? I'd be filthy rich!

Edited March 23, 2016 by johnwray

[KShine]

[jeff_14]

This thread could be sub-titled "It was the best of times, it created the worst of times". Copyright pending.

For me the ultimate safety net is waiting to buy sets on sale and then selling after EOL. There doesn't appear to be any shortage of parents who are quite happy to pay retail or close to retail prices for a set they want and missed in store. I buy a lot of sets at 50% off and so even if I just sell them for MSRP, I get almost a 100% return, which could be off a very short turn around as I find a lot of those discount prices occur shortly before EOL. Even afterwards if I'm really lucky.

As someone else mentioned, lego, unlike cards, comics, etc., have an intrinsic value, below which the price almost never falls. It costs the Danes x cents per piece to make these things, and we often base our decisions off price per brick. Even loose, people will generally pay x cents per brick of lego. I view lego as a safe investment in that you should be able to unload at or close to MSRP in most circumstances, all the moreso as time passes. Even Prince of Persia sets can become worth MSRP after x number of years following EOL. Whereas you cannot get your money back on a stock that craters. Wall St. doesn't really go for that kind of thing. 

[labfreak7]

I would say honestly that the amount of publicity that Lego has gotten is definitely hurting it from an investment perspective. I have stopped buying sets due to my change in fiscal priorities, and I can't say I miss it. It was really burning a hole in my pocket. You can definitely see where over hoarded sets are severely underperforming, like GE. Its very disheartening to see. I will continue to chime in once in a while, but as an investor, I am taking a big step back. I'm sure there will be dozens to fill my place.

[ironbrick]

I'm sorry but the current Lego market screams of speculation. Lego is on track to release a record number of different sets this year across all popular themes...and why shouldn't they? If people are buying ten of each set for so called investment reasons, why not make even more sets which in turn equal more sales?

I love the people on this forum claiming that the Lego speculative bubble won't ever burst because you could always just sell the parts on Bricklink.  Do you have any idea just how competitive it has become within the last year? The amount of work just now is almost not worth it especially with sellers getting lots at flea markets and yard sales and undercutting other sellers by pennies on the dollar. Imagine what would happen if sets had to be parted out and sold due to the speculative bubble bursting. The prices of most bricks would go to $0.01 each. If you can get retired sets for less than retail why would anyone be buying parts en masse?

Make no mistake about it the part out values on Bricklink are nothing but pure fantasy even if you are going by the six month average of sold sale prices. It may take decades before you sell all those pieces!

2013 was the last good year for Lego investing. Now everyone and their mother is doing it. It is going to take a few good sets to retire and not sell above retail for the bubble to start bursting. Rest assured, it is all downhill soon enough...

How many Ewok Villages and Sandcrawlers are sitting in unopened condition just waiting for...waiting for what exactly? Retirement? If everyone is holding them why would that even matter? 

The Death Star is really disappointing a lot of people, but one has to ask how stupid they could be for thinking a $400 set in production for 8 years was going to be a mass seller (post retirement). Sure, the smart ones were lucky to buy in at $299 a set and are now able to make a profit. Factor in eBay and PayPal fees (or Amazon fees) and you would have to sell at $600 to make a decent profit if your buy in was at $400 a set! Now with Disney in charge of the Star Wars franchise you can be sure that releases are going to be albeit certain and very few people are going to care about retired sets when a new version is right around the corner. 

Time will tell. Time will tell. It always does...

I just don't want to be one of those unfortunate fools who has to sell 1,000,000 plus pieces on Bricklink while undercutting my competition just to take a loss on a mass storage shed full of retired product that no one wants. It is coming; oh yes, it is coming...

 

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2016 by ironbrick

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, ironbrick said:

I'm sorry but the current Lego market screams of speculation. Lego is on track to release a record number of different sets this year across all popular themes...and why shouldn't they? If people are buying ten of each set for so called investment reasons, why not make even more sets which in turn equal more sales?

I love the people on this forum claiming that the Lego speculative bubble won't ever burst because you could always just sell the parts on Bricklink. Does anyone on here besides me actually have a Bricklink store? Do you have any idea just how competitive it has become within the last year? The amount of work just now is almost not worth it especially with sellers getting lots at flea markets and yard sales and undercutting other sellers by pennies on the dollar. Imagine what would happen if sets had to be parted out and sold due to the speculative bubble bursting. The prices of most bricks would go to $0.01 each. If you can get retired sets for less than retail why would anyone be buying parts en masse?

Make no mistake about it the part out values on Bricklink are nothing but pure fantasy even if you are going by the six month average of sold sale prices. It may take decades before you sell all those pieces!

2013 was the last good year for Lego investing. Now everyone and their mother is doing it. It is going to take a few good sets to retire and not sell above retail for the bubble to start bursting. Rest assured, it is all downhill soon enough...

How many Ewok Villages and Sandcrawlers are sitting in unopened condition just waiting for...waiting fro what exactly? Retirement? If everyone is holding them why would that even matter? 

The Death Star is really disappointing a lot of people, but one has to ask how stupid they could be for thinking a $400 set in production for 8 years was going to be a mass seller. Sure, the smart ones were lucky to buy in at $299 a set and are now able to make a profit. Factor in eBay and PayPal fees (or Amazon fees) and you would have to sell at $600 to make a decent profit if your buy in was at $400 a set! Now with Disney in charge of the Star Wars franchise you can be sure that releases are going to be albeit certain and very few people are going to care about retired sets when a new version is right around the corner. 

Time will tell. Time will tell. It always does...

I just don't want to be one of those unfortunate fools who has to sell 1,000,000 plus pieces on Bricklink while undercutting my competition just to take a loss on a mass storage shed full of retired product that no one wants. It is coming; oh yes, it is coming...

 

 

 

 

Welcome to the site...Why would LEGO releasing a record amount of unique sets be bad for LEGO investing?  Wouldn't that open up more opportunities for people to find sets that aren't stockpiled?  I think you vastly overestimate what people have.  LEGO sets are just too expensive to stockpile in numbers like you are assuming.  There are a handful of people out there who can and are vocal about doing so, but this is the vast minority do not.  

I am not saying that things are as good as they once were, but you are basically writing off the entire LEGO phenomena and future generation's interest in the best toy ever produced.  

[ironbrick]

23 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Quote

Welcome to the site...

Thank you for welcoming me to the site. I am a long time lurker so it is not like I am completely new to this, but I appreciate the welcoming gesture. I am an avid fan of Lego and have a rather large collection. I do dabble in selling too, so I am well aware of the market and really like your website! 

Quote

Why would LEGO releasing a record amount of unique sets be bad for LEGO investing?  

You are assuming there will be a steady market for all of these sets. That is not always a correct assumption to make. Over saturation is a very valid risk and we are dangerously close to entering that segment of the market, if we are not already there (I would venture to say it has already happened).Thank you for welcoming me to the site. I am a long time lurker so it is not like I am completely new to this. 

Quote

I think you vastly overestimate what people have.  LEGO sets are just too expensive to stockpile in numbers like you are assuming.  There are a handful of people out there who can and are vocal about doing so, but this is the vast minority do not.  

Absolutely true! But are you taking into account the amount of people who will be willing to pay over retail for a set when they know another version is right around the corner? Lego investing has been reported on by the mass media for several years now. I have a lot of friends and associates who know that if they want a specific Lego set and do not get it while on store shelves they have two options:

Buy from a  reseller or just wait for a re-release. Re-releases are becoming quite common. 

Quote

I am not saying that things are as good as they once were, but you are basically writing off the entire LEGO phenomena and future generation's interest in the best toy ever produced.  

With all due respect, don't you see anything wrong with this statement? Does it not appear to be said by someone wearing the proverbial rose colored glasses? I mean no offense to you, but this is a very biased statement and one that anyone looking from the outside in would take a great deal of issue with. Assuming that in your opinion, Lego is the best toy ever produced, you are making an assumption that regardless of current output or production it will always be in demand. Your first quote in that statement says it all, "I am not saying that things are as good as they once were." My question would then be how do you know they won't get worse? Simply because Lego is in your opinion the best toy ever produced? There are a lot of great products that were highly speculative and some are still quite popular today. Popularity and speculation can be mutually exclusive. 

In conclusion, this is a great discussion to have. I hope you agree too!

 

Edited May 22, 2016 by ironbrick