10179: The Worst Thing to Ever Happen to Lego Investing

[Rimmit]

"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."

 

I am not sure how many of you have read my postings over the last 2 months since I joined in January, so I will give you a very brief intro to my background.

 

While I am a relatively new Brickpicker member, I am certainly not new to this game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, UCS Tie Interceptors, UCS ISD, UCS Y-wings, UCS Snowspeeders, CTT, Cloud Cities etc.   While I was not an emazer level operation, I was running about 3,000-4,000 in volume on an average month and reached Bronze Powerseller level, so not too bad.  However, in 2007, due to life changes I started selling off my stock without reinvesting.  I cashed out and did not ante back up. 

 

Over the last 8 years since I sold of my last Clone Turbo Tank in 2008, I have peripherally watched the market.  I have seen various sets rise to proportions never thought possible (10179), and some falter secondary to remakes.  On occasion I would surf Amazon just to see what the lowest buy price would be, many times wishing I was still in it.  I would visit the Lego store when I happened to be in Disney World just to check out what sets were out, seeing the exponential increase in sets being produced.

 

In January, I happened to be walk into a Lego Store in a mall with my son, and was just shocked as to just how many licensed sets there were.  I was also impressed with just how accurate some of the newer sets were in likeness to the actual original model (Wall-E and Ecto01.)  Suddenly, I had this itch to get back in the game again, that I just could not resist.  Luckily, over the last year, several life changes had allowed me to pursue this endeavor again for the second time.  So I decided to get back into the game.  For the record, I did not get into the game because of a USA Today or WSJ article.  In all honesty, I am awful with politics and current events, so I had no idea how far Lego resale, or what is now called "brickvesting" had now become.  I had no idea this was even being covered on a national level, until I decided to start back into Lego Resale.

 

So I began googling about Lego sets, and to my shock, there were national news articles about Lego investing and even a WHOLE WEBSITE devoted to Lego Investing.  All I could think about about was how far this had come in 8 years.  From 2004-2007, there were minimal Lego and AFOL websites.  There was bricklink and fbtb.net, and the only big forum community was on fbtb.  And that was mostly Star Wars Legos without a whole lot about anything else.  Although, in all honesty, back then there were minimal exclusives, and really Star Wars Lego's were the only think worth investing in.

 

So I discovered this Brickpicker, and I just happened to get in at the time the Tumbler was retiring, so this place was on fire about the retirement of this Iconic set.  In all honesty, this set was the set that pulled me out of retirement as it seems like such a good investment.  I still believe the Tumbler is a great investment, however, reading the forums for the last two months caused me to realize just how much has changed in 8 years, and how much more difficult this will be now than it was from 2004-2007.  It took me a while to figure just what changed.  Lego's were such a guarantee before.  Ebay and the internet while young and in it's infancy was still a known commodity and widely available in 2004-2007.  People knew what items were selling for.  You could search completed listings and know that Lego's could net a good sum of money.  People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage.  Lego had ALWAYS been immune because it was not a fad.  It never had major publicity but was always reasonably popular.  So what changed?  As I read article after article, I finally noticed a pattern.

 

It was 10179.  This was the game changer, and quite frankly the worst thing to happen to Lego Investing.

 

10179 came out right about the time I was leaving my Ebay business.  At the time, no one would touch this thing with a ten foot pole from an investment standpoint.  It was already hard enough shipping 10030 ISD's.  When I would ship an ISD, I would go to the grocery store, get a ton of boxes, cut them up and jury rig some kind of cardboard container.  It was painfully time intensive.  How the heck was someone gonna find boxes for a 10179?  The weight, size, and investment of $500 (although it was pretty much permanently on sale around $400) was near insanity.  The most expensive set selling at the time was the UCS X wing and it sold used for about $450 usedand MISB around $650-700.  So how in the world was the market going to tolerate selling 10179 to make a profit.  This was even in a time when Ebay fees and paypal fees combined were about 6-7% if I remember correctly.  It was basically considered flop from an investment standpoint.  It was the Sea Cow of 2007.  Oh if we had only known what we know now. 

 

Many might ask, how could the single most profitable set of all time be bad for investing? 

 

10179 gave a face to Lego Investing.  Before Lego's were just a standard commodity like any other resalable collectable item.  Sure some sets might sell for a profit for 200-300, but lots of other collectibles do that.  I sold Art Asylum Star Trek Starships for a while and was buying them for $5 dollars and selling for $140-$150.  There are tons of reselling opportunities out there if you understand the market, and Lego was just another one like any other toy or collectible. 

 

However, 10179 brought it to the forefront.  It was the Honus Wagner and Mickey Mantle rookie card of the Lego world.  Those cards caused people to jump on to baseball card collecting like no other.  People would blindly buy baseball cards with no market research just because of those two cards.  Sound familiar?

 

The Mack's state in their webpage bio that part of what stemmed them building this website was 10179.  Without 10179 there would be no Brickpicker.  Without Brickpicker, there wouldn't be a USA Today headline bringing Lego Investing to the masses. 

 

10179 was what gave bloggers and article writer's a nice catchy headline.  "Lego's set sells for $5,000" "Lego's Brick's Better Than Gold Bricks."  From the moment 10179 took off, it was all downhill from there in the Lego Investing world.  10179 was basically the coming out party of Lego Investing.  People dream of making the big bucks.  People dream of hitting gold.  10179 gave people a tangible dream in the Lego Investing market.  Before then it was simply a faceless game that some people partook in. 

 

I would always get laughed at in any business meeting when people asked what I was investing in, and I told them once I had maxed out all other retirement options, I would probably put some in Lego's.  You can only imagine my stares.  Now with websites like this and USA today, and WSJ article's I have ammo now to defend my position.  Unfortunately, now with the ammo, it is even harder to defend the position.

 

So ultimately, 10179, has caused a spiral of events that will ultimately eventually bring about the end of Lego Investing.  Is that likely to happen in the next 10 years?  Not likely, but this site is adding 60 new members a day based on the number at the bottom of the main page. Albeit, not everyone is going to invest, and some might join just for the community, but there are some investors in that number.  The market is still very strong, and will always remain strong because Lego is not a fad, and Lego will always have demand.  Are you likely to lose in Lego Investing, like people lost big in baseball cards and beanie babies.  Not likely, unless you are just AWFUL at picking sets, and are completely impatient.  However, eventually a time will come, when selling just to cover your initial investment at RRP+Taxes will become standard for most sets.  

 

"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."

Edited March 22, 2016 by Rimmit

[exciter1]

I think this should be moved over to the blog section.  You could add it under Brickvesting.

[Brian Briggs]

1 hour ago, Rimmit said:

People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage.

Why do you consider Magic cards to have been a fad?

[vroom34]

As someone who's been trading the financial markets for over 2 decades, I find this Lego investing trend very interesting. What got me back into Lego was not any article, but opening and building a set that was gifted to me. Only then did I realize how crazy it was out there. I firmly believe the days of multiples of 100s even 1000s percent gains is over. It just won't happen. There will always be a strong secondary market, but not likes of the 10179s, etc... 

User Vassal on Eurobricks pretty much summed it up. What he/she says is straight out of an economics text book. 

" ....Some get into it to help subsidize their Lego hobby, I know I have been tempted to do so.  However, I fully believe the market just won't hold.  There are a couple major items to any market: (1) scarcity and (2) information.  There has been a large increase in the number of "resellers" or "investors" in the secondary market the past couple of years.  These people are stockpiling massive collections (literally massive, like storage units full) of sets for sale later based on historical times when there was significant scarcity for a particular retired set.  With the increase in resellers, scarcity will go down, and profits will go down.  We won't see the extreme EOL gains on these sets any longer since there will be literally hundreds, if not thousands in the secondary market.  There simply will be too much supply for the demand.  Another aspect of scarcity is in my mind, I would rather just buy the sets coming out from Lego at much cheaper prices.  Lego investors are primarily targeting AFOLs coming out of the dark ages.  As a recent AFOL out of the dark ages, I have wanted retired sets, but filled that void with new sets coming out as I can't pay the prices for the retired sets on the secondary market.  I can buy loads of sets with thousands of pieces for the price of a Green Grocer. "

Information: This will hit the Lego secondary market in a couple of ways.  Information regarding Lego investing is becoming widely disseminated.  With stocks (pretty much worldwide), there is widely available information out in the public.  Any information not in the public is illegal to make investment decisions on.  Due to this, stocks will pretty much reprice based on any information out in the public, and no one usually has information that the general public don't.  This is the efficient market theory which minimizes the quick profits.  The same will occur with Lego, it is no longer a secret regarding the money to be made with them.  That information will bring down the price as more and more investors flood to sell (back to scarcity), and there will no longer be a price gap due to misinformation (few people knowing the value of Lego retired sets).

It isn't the resellers that ramp up the prices, but the buyers who buy at those prices.  If you have no buyers at a particular price point, sellers won't sell.  The prices wouldn't be where they are if there wasn't a market for them at that price.

I only do get frustrated with them purchasing up all the deals so quickly, but I don't know that it is them solely responsible for out of stock items.  I don't have anything against them personally, as I know there are lots making good money.  To each there own, but these are my personal thoughts on the future of the Lego secondary market.

I hope to some degree parting out stays around as I do like being able to stock up on a lot of certain pieces rather than trying to buy whole sets with pieces and minifigures I don't need or want.  "

 

Edited March 22, 2016 by vroom34

[Deadfraggle]

1 hour ago, vroom34 said:

" ....Some get into it to help subsidize their Lego hobby, I know I have been tempted to do so.  However, I fully believe the market just won't hold.  There are a couple major items to any market: (1) scarcity and (2) information.  There has been a large increase in the number of "resellers" or "investors" in the secondary market the past couple of years.  These people are stockpiling massive collections (literally massive, like storage units full) of sets for sale later based on historical times when there was significant scarcity for a particular retired set.  With the increase in resellers, scarcity will go down, and profits will go down.  We won't see the extreme EOL gains on these sets any longer since there will be literally hundreds, if not thousands in the secondary market.  There simply will be too much supply for the demand.  Another aspect of scarcity is in my mind, I would rather just buy the sets coming out from Lego at much cheaper prices.  Lego investors are primarily targeting AFOLs coming out of the dark ages.  As a recent AFOL out of the dark ages, I have wanted retired sets, but filled that void with new sets coming out as I can't pay the prices for the retired sets on the secondary market.  I can buy loads of sets with thousands of pieces for the price of a Green Grocer. "

I think this is the most accurate description I've read to summarize the problem at hand. There is bubble talk weekly here, which permeates through many of the various threads.  I don' think there is a bubble that will burst, causing prices to plummet significantly on LEGO sets like beanies or baseball cards, but I do think we are at serious risk of very small gains on many sets in the future. As described above, the sheer number of EOL sets available on the secondary market moving forward may keep appreciation rates very modest. People wouldn't pay $1200 for a Green Grocer if there were 200 sellers with available stock on Amazon. This is the biggest difference between 2008 and 2016.

I will be very interested to watch the growth curves of exclusives purchased or retired in 2014 and later. Sure, @emazers is going to do well with his 60 Death Stars, because he purchased them at an average cost of something like $275, but could you do that today? TRU doesn't seem to do the BOGO on exclusives anymore, B&N has shut the coupons off. Where can re-sellers, especially those new to the game, pick-up large volumes of exclusive sets discounted at 35 to 40% off RRP?

I think pockets of opportunity for good LEGO profit will remain for years to come, I'm just not confident that the long-term hold strategy will remain the most viable. Quick-flips, cashing out 6-12 months after retirement, parting out sets, trying to find the overlooked sets, etc are likely key to survival.

[exciter1]

10 minutes ago, Deadfraggle said:

I think this is the most accurate description I've read to summarize the problem at hand. There is bubble talk weekly here, which permeates through many of the various threads.  I don' think there is a bubble that will burst, causing prices to plummet significantly on LEGO sets like beanies or baseball cards, but I do think we are at serious risk of very small gains on many sets in the future. As described above, the sheer number of EOL sets available on the secondary market moving forward may keep appreciation rates very modest. People wouldn't pay $1200 for a Green Grocer if there were 200 sellers with available stock on Amazon. This is the biggest difference between 2008 and 2016.

I will be very interested to watch the growth curves of exclusives purchased or retired in 2014 and later. Sure, @emazers is going to do well with his 60 Death Stars, because he purchased them at an average cost of something like $275, but could you do that today? TRU doesn't seem to do the BOGO on exclusives anymore, B&N has shut the coupons off. Where can re-sellers, especially those new to the game, pick-up large volumes of exclusive sets discounted at 35 to 40% off RRP?

I think pockets of opportunity for good LEGO profit will remain for years to come, I'm just not confident that the long-term hold strategy will remain the most viable. Quick-flips, cashing out 6-12 months after retirement, parting out sets, trying to find the overlooked sets, etc are likely key to survival.

Is there a problem, or are expectations the problem?

[pete411]

8 minutes ago, Deadfraggle said:

I think this is the most accurate description I've read to summarize the problem at hand. There is bubble talk weekly here, which permeates through many of the various threads.  I don' think there is a bubble that will burst, causing prices to plummet significantly on LEGO sets like beanies or baseball cards, but I do think we are at serious risk of very small gains on many sets in the future. As described above, the sheer number of EOL sets available on the secondary market moving forward may keep appreciation rates very modest. People wouldn't pay $1200 for a Green Grocer if there were 200 sellers with available stock on Amazon. This is the biggest difference between 2008 and 2016.

I will be very interested to watch the growth curves of exclusives purchased or retired in 2014 and later. Sure, @emazers is going to do well with his 60 Death Stars, because he purchased them at an average cost of something like $275, but could you do that today? TRU doesn't seem to do the BOGO on exclusives anymore, B&N has shut the coupons off. Where can re-sellers, especially those new to the game, pick-up large volumes of exclusive sets discounted at 35 to 40% off RRP?

I think pockets of opportunity for good LEGO profit will remain for years to come, I'm just not confident that the long-term hold strategy will remain the most viable. Quick-flips, cashing out 6-12 months after retirement, parting out sets, trying to find the overlooked sets, etc are likely key to survival.

Right. Now more than ever, Lego reselling is more of a hustle rather than buying up a bunch of exclusives and sitting back. I'd love to sit at home and make a few mouse clicks and call it a day. I am actively having to scour this site looking to save $10 dollars here, $30 here, buying discounted gift cards, etc. Visiting multiple stores in order to find clearance items and shopping sales several times a week. Seeing 200+ Amazon sellers before Brickpickers even consider listing their sets in disheartening. In the end, is it all worth it to make some modest gains? We'll see in a couple of years.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

15 minutes ago, Deadfraggle said:

I will be very interested to watch the growth curves of exclusives purchased or retired in 2014 and later. Sure, @emazers is going to do well with his 60 Death Stars, because he purchased them at an average cost of something like $275, but could you do that today? TRU doesn't seem to do the BOGO on exclusives anymore, B&N has shut the coupons off. Where can re-sellers, especially those new to the game, pick-up large volumes of exclusive sets discounted at 35 to 40% off RRP?

 

I think the fact that No one can pick up exclusives at a discount is positive for future resellers. 
This levels the playing field. 
The ones that has the capital and the patience will have the advantage.
To me, this eliminates many market wrenches.

[exciter1]

10 minutes ago, pete411 said:

Right. Now more than ever, Lego reselling is more of a hustle rather than buying up a bunch of exclusives and sitting back. I'd love to sit at home and make a few mouse clicks and call it a day. I am actively having to scour this site looking to save $10 dollars here, $30 here, buying discounted gift cards, etc. Visiting multiple stores in order to find clearance items and shopping sales several times a week. Seeing 200+ Amazon sellers before Brickpickers even consider listing their sets in disheartening. In the end, is it all worth it to make some modest gains? We'll see in a couple of years.

If I wasn't shopping for LEGO, I would be doing it to collect something else.  Saving a few bucks at a time has always been standard for me.

[Rimmit]

7 minutes ago, Deadfraggle said:

I will be very interested to watch the growth curves of exclusives purchased or retired in 2014 and later. Sure, @emazers is going to do well with his 60 Death Stars, because he purchased them at an average cost of something like $275, but could you do that today? TRU doesn't seem to do the BOGO on exclusives anymore, B&N has shut the coupons off. Where can re-sellers, especially those new to the game, pick-up large volumes of exclusive sets discounted at 35 to 40% off RRP?

I think pockets of opportunity for good LEGO profit will remain for years to come, I'm just not confident that the long-term hold strategy will remain the most viable. Quick-flips, cashing out 6-12 months after retirement, parting out sets, trying to find the overlooked sets, etc are likely key to survival.

One of the most underrated parts of this game that people do not emphasize enough is without a doubt the buy-in.  Sure if you are buying a set at 30% off you are guaranteed reasonable profits.  Back in 2004-2007, discounts on exclusive's were very easy to come by.  I have posted this pic before, but just to emphasize how different this game is now,  could you imagine discounts like this in today's climate.  I know I can't.  Buying exclusive's at 50% just does not happen anymore.  

If this happened in today's market, it would go bananas.  The BP would probably shut down and it would be a national holiday.  Discounts like this were common place before.  The buy-in was crazy low.  I almost want to vomit thinking about how much I missed out from 2007-2012 before the game started changing.  Just finding a set at 10% off like the Tie Fighter today (it was 15%, but most have at least 5% in taxes), make people go crazy now.  Before a 10% discount would barely even cause people to bat an eye.  Tie Fighter or Slave I going for $100 would crash a website.  Getting the Kwok-E-Mart for $150 from Barnes and Nobles is a no brainer, but if you weren't online at the right place and the right time you likely missed it.  For most casual investors,  we do not have the time to hunt every deal down, and eek out every percentage point discount, making it increasingly hard for the casual investor to succeed in Legovesting. 

But truly, the most important aspect of the game going forward is the Buy-In.  It's easy for an emazer or any other BPer who stalks deals for maximal discount to sit back and feel good when buying at 30-40% off RRP on an exclusive.  Even if the market sits sub $600 for 10188, a buy in at $275 makes profits easy going.  For future sets, however, getting a set like GBHQ, Hellicarrier, Sandcrawler, etc. for more than 10% off is a battle, a battle which Lego is fighting furiously to win.  The occasional deal will pop up, but it is becoming harder and harder to get that low buy-in.  Given the effort of the buy-in, one has to start placing a value on the time to hunt these deals down, whereas before an RRP buy-in was more than good enough, and anything else was gravy.  Now there is no gravy.  Just biscuits.

Thankfully, Lego's will never bottom out to a zero worth like baseball cards and beanie babies.  No matter what there is a bare minimum innate value in the bricks themselves.  With Beanie Babies, the fabric and beans are basically worthless in bulk.  With baseball cards, cardboard is literally worthless, unless you are using it to ship Lego's. =)   Lego bricks sell in bulk for at least some cash, so even in the worst case scenario, there is intrinsic value in the brick itself.  This provides a safety net unlike the stock market which can hit zero value.

[MarleyMoose]

My god, underwear sales would skyrocket!

[Mathew]

I remember the days of the TRU BOGO 50% off.  I scored two Grand Emporiums for $225 this way.  It wasn't easy though.  You had to be f5'ing like crazy.  I also scored the UCS Imperial Shuttle for $128 from Amazon Warehouse at the tail-end of 2012.  2012 was indeed the last year of great Lego deals.

[Deadfraggle]

49 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Is there a problem, or are expectations the problem?

Maybe not as much of a problem as a disappointment. I'm a collector first, and not ashamed to admit that. As a collector, I'd like to hope that my portfolio of personal sets continues to consistently grow in value.

Honestly, I probably won't sell even half of what I've purchased because I value those sets like I do my art, sports Memorabilia and historical treasures. It is nice to know that I could sell them at some point if I wanted or needed to and come out ahead. If over hoarding / market saturation lead to a situation where exclusive sets don't appreciate strongly anymore, I'd probably have to reevaluate the sizeable chunk of change I throw down each month on my personal collection.

As a reseller, I can probably adapt and overcome and continue to make a profit. My best gains so far haven't been from large or exclusive sets. I'm just not sure that I have the extra time to devote to doing it well, and doing it half-a** is a recipe for disaster. 

[BrickU]

44 minutes ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

I think the fact that No one can pick up exclusives at a discount is positive for future resellers. 
This levels the playing field. 
The ones that has the capital and the patience will have the advantage.
To me, this eliminates many market wrenches.

I respectfully disagree with everything that you said at least in the short term excluding a few exceptions(Star Wars etc).  The horde is still buying regardless of discount, which equals less profit from discounted product.  Shipping & Supplies continues to slowly rise + longer shelf life for bigger exclusives doesn't help.  Bottom line is bigger sets are a Slam Dunk anymore without a discount.

Long term..... to soon to tell.  Lesson the hordes capital & patience with less profit can weed out the newbies.

 

 

Edited March 23, 2016 by BrickU

[exciter1]

4 minutes ago, Mathew said:

I remember the days of the TRU BOGO 50% off.  I scored two Grand Emporiums for $225 this way.  It wasn't easy though.  You had to be f5'ing like crazy.  I also scored the UCS Imperial Shuttle for $128 from Amazon Warehouse at the tail-end of 2012.  2012 was indeed the last year of great Lego deals.

...and that's when I didn't have the extra money to buy.  I had to look ahead and start turning stuff over to gain tolerance from the wife.

[KShine]

7 hours ago, Rimmit said:

"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."

 

You seem to be convinced of the impending doom and gloom.

You were heavily involved during the crazy great days, Left and missed the good days, and now have returned for the OK days, while also being convinced of the very bad days to come.

If you believe it is inevitable - Why exactly would you be looking to load up on LEGO now?

[Rimmit]

7 minutes ago, KShine said:

You seem to be convinced of the impending doom and gloom.

You were heavily involved during the crazy great days, Left and missed the good days, and now have returned for the OK days, while also being convinced of the very bad days to come.

If you believe it is inevitable - Why exactly would you be looking to load up on LEGO now?

So I can buy a 10179.

[Migration]

4 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

So I can buy a 10179.

Just wait for the re release.

[Deadfraggle]

22 minutes ago, KShine said:

You seem to be convinced of the impending doom and gloom.

You were heavily involved during the crazy great days, Left and missed the good days, and now have returned for the OK days, while also being convinced of the very bad days to come.

If you believe it is inevitable - Why exactly would you be looking to load up on LEGO now?

My take away from @Rimmit's post wasn't  so much inevitable doom and gloom, but more reflection on just how much the "brick vesting" landscape has changed in the years he's been gone. My guess is that some aspects of LEGO investing today are better than past years and vice versa. In 2020, some aspects of buying and selling sets might be better than today as well.

[Val-E]

7 hours ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

I think the fact that No one can pick up exclusives at a discount is positive for future resellers. 
This levels the playing field. 
The ones that has the capital and the patience will have the advantage.
To me, this eliminates many market wrenches.

As you mention, people with capital will have an advantage over the savvy bargain hunters so I don´t see that as levelling the field - having disposable income will give you an advantage to a) increase your porftolio b: long term hoard with no liquidity pressure to sell up before time. When heavy discounts are available, people with less money but more time or better skills can compensate for their lack of capital by acquiring more for less.

It also contributes to the bubble threat as it offers people less opportunity to get out at different moments - having 60 DS´s bought at different prices means not flooding the market with them all at once as you can let the cheaper ones go earlier when it is easier to sell them and keep the more expensive ones for later when scarcity occurs. If everyone paid fulll price then you are basically waiting for the first ones to crack under pressure and sell short or that noone lists anything so that there is an apparent scarcity. Then the price may well go up and everyone will want out at the same time, bringing it back down again (see Town Hall).

Finally, it is riskier as the longer you keep the item, the more likely a remake/reissue will come out.

In the case of the DS, we are in a good position as it is the original and sole version - if people want one they have to buy 10188 or nada. If the new one is a) based on a sgnificantly different design or b: is inferior in terms of design or size thenit shouldn´t affect the old one and will probably help it.

[Fenix_2k1]

I think the market will right itself over time. Looking at the UK market plenty of people went nuts for The Tumbler but were expecting instant profits which haven't materialised.  At the moment Tumbler sellers are selling to break even because they can't afford to be invested too long. You can see the same with EV, Sandcrawler, Pet Shop and other Exclusives.  People gambled that retirements were imminent, that's not played out so they're having to sell sets at a loss because they can't afford to have cash tied up.

They were expecting retirement to mean an instant £50 - 100 profit but they'd not taken any fees into account and they didn't realise how long aflyer retirement it would be before all shop stock went.

I truly believe that the horde have killed the market through over buying and sets aren't retiring because Lego see the sales numbers staying strong. I can understand why DS stuck around so long, it was iconic and every lego star wars fan wanted one, saved answer bought when they could, but Tower Bridge? I think it's only still alive because people saw the Taj Mahal profits and thought TB would be next one to do similar. Same with the VW T1 after the Beetle prices shot up.

Plenty will cash out when they aren'the making the profits they want in the time frame they had in mind and never invest in Lego again. It's a patience game. 

Even the 'better investment than gold' articles only mentioned a 12% annual return but a lot of the people seem to be hoping for 50 or 100% in a year.

[Sprocket77]

5 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I truly believe that the horde have killed the market through over buying and sets aren't retiring because Lego see the sales numbers staying strong. I can understand why DS stuck around so long, it was iconic and every lego star wars fan wanted one, saved answer bought when they could, but Tower Bridge? I think it's only still alive because people saw the Taj Mahal profits and thought TB would be next one to do similar. Same with the VW T1 after the Beetle prices shot up.

Not disagreeing with your overall post, but maybe, just maybe, Tower Bridge and the T1 VW Camper Van have stayed around because they're really cool Lego sets which sell well and they're ageless so new afols are always going to want them. 

You do know also, that when you talk about the horde, that really we're all part of that horde.

[Val-E]

The 12% annual return is an average over maybe 3-5 years, the big gains usually used to come immediately after EOL and about a year or 2 later when scarcity took over. Nowadays the quick flippers look like they are killing the initial jump and the second one got killed off a while back so we are probably looking towards a more realistic 5-10% annual gain over 5 years with a more gradual rise. We´ll see down the line if after 5 years there is a new scarcity blip.

There are aways going to be sets that buck the trend in a good or bad way but we can look to the performance of FB, GE, Bwing, Medieval Market and a few others as indicators for exclusives.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Not disagreeing with your overall post, but maybe, just maybe, Tower Bridge and the T1 VW Camper Van have stayed around because they're really cool Lego sets which sell well and they're ageless so new afols are always going to want them. 

You do know also, that when you talk about the horde, that really we're all part of that horde.

Yeah, definitely more confident about T1 than HE or Sopwith because the market for them is bigger. If we are not part of the solution, we´re part of the problem - which is why I´ve cut back on buying again.

[lego_fan]

The biggest problem with lower growth rates, is the percentage of profits that Ebay/Amazon, PayPal and shipping soak up. For a cost basis of 100GBP, you have to sell somewhere about 120GBP just to break even. at a 20% growth rate, you therefore are lucky to wash your face after holding for year 1. So either you hold longer, hope for a better growth rate, or focus on your buy-in point.