41172 - The Water Dragon Adventure

[Villager Chris]

Cannot really compare yet as 41181, 82, 84 and 85 started production 7 months or so later. 

But you did say it was a swift analysis. 

[cladner]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

So, a swift analysis of prospects of retired Elves sets in 2017;

41172 OK - this will be the easy winner of this retiring class.  appealing teal and purple dragon.  approaching 3x the easily obtained $12 buyin on amazon fba.  somehow there's only 17 sellers on the main listing on amazon- how can that be.  i'm sure it will rise.  i thought i was going to get banned by jet.com over this set but nope.

41175 Potential limited due to overhoarding.  - only 23 sellers on amazon usa - that's a low count - is it really hoarded?  ecto1 still has over 100 sellers.

41179 Winner - yes it is, already double the easily obtained $49 buyin, 19 sellers.

41180 saved by cheap buy-in and baby dragon - will take a little while compared to others but still going to make money.

41181 Winner - with a $7 buyin, you will make 4-5x and a close 2nd to 41172.

41182 OK - 27 sellers, not selling out at 25-30% off - agree it will be just ok at >50% msrp buyin.  would arm sweep at $9.

41184 Steaming turd - hard to say.  with a 50% off buyin i think you will do ok.

41185 Steaming turd - disagree.  for this size a set and relatively short life, should do better than average.  problem is being widely clearanced at walmart and target so seller counts should go up a lot.

hoping lightning continues to strike in this theme.

Edited December 29, 2017 by cladner

[Val-E]

I think we are seeing the typical disparities between markets, as with Secret Marketplace which is gold in the US and can still be found in shops here below RRP.

41175 has been pretty much 30-50% off on Amazon all through its lifecycle so there are a lot to soak up and we know this is a niche theme.

So far, all the sets ending in  a 1 have been winners so that sounds like reason to believe in 41181.

[Villager Chris]

Amazon keep drip feeding these all day, one at a time. I've bought a couple earlier at different times but another available now (just one). 

Update: Just gone (not me this time). 

Edited December 29, 2017 by Villager Chris
Update

[Cheese]

Amazon keep drip feeding these all day, one at a time. I've bought a couple earlier at different times but another available now (just one). 
Update: Just gone (not me this time). 

The Amazon bots probably coming across one now and then as it does inventory in the warehouse

[Villager Chris]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

I think we are seeing the typical disparities between markets, as with Secret Marketplace which is gold in the US and can still be found in shops here below RRP.

41175 has been pretty much 30-50% off on Amazon all through its lifecycle so there are a lot to soak up and we know this is a niche theme.

So far, all the sets ending in  a 1 have been winners so that sounds like reason to believe in 41181.

41191. Back to the Turtle Ambush then! 

[kumas]

I am sad 41184 does so poorly bcs I think it has a good design and looks lovely (prob. missing a magical pet); 41180 is turd according to interest here; all sets in next wave have a dragon or similar magical creature so I guess Lego now knows what attracts audience

[Val-E]

There is no longer the collectibility element of the baby dragons and coloured eggs. I am not a specialist in what drives 8-year-old girls, but that may have been an important element.

[Villager Chris]

4 minutes ago, kumas said:

I am sad 41184 does so poorly bcs I think it has a good design and looks lovely (prob. missing a magical pet); 41180 is turd according to interest here; all sets in next wave have a dragon or similar magical creature so I guess Lego now knows what attracts audience

41180 is rising fast in the UK. 

[BrickU]

5 hours ago, Val-E said:

So, a swift analysis of prospects of retired Elves sets in 2017;

41172 OK

41175 Potential limited due to overhoarding.

41179 Winner

41180 saved by cheap buy-in and baby dragon

41181 Winner

41182 OK

41184 Steaming turd

41185 Steaming turd

No Offense Val, but violent posts like this help my profits tremendously.  Thank you!   Carry on.....

[Leopard]

I understand the 41172 but I feel like I am missing the big picture on 41181...Val always sounds convincing tho ?

[redcell]

10 hours ago, Val-E said:

So, a swift analysis of prospects of retired Elves sets in 2017;

41172 OK

41175 Potential limited due to overhoarding.

41179 Winner

41180 saved by cheap buy-in and baby dragon

41181 Winner

41182 OK

41184 Steaming turd

41185 Steaming turd

It's pretty appropriate that your favorite classification for sets is "turd" since you're basically pulling all of your opinions out of your a**.

 

5 hours ago, Val-E said:

I am not a specialist in what drives 8-year-old girls, but that may have been an important element.

...and yet you don't let that stop you from concluding that a set will crash and burn.

[Val-E]

8 hours ago, redcell said:

It's pretty appropriate that your favorite classification for sets is "turd" since you're basically pulling all of your opinions out of your a**.

 

...and yet you don't let that stop you from concluding that a set will crash and burn.

Season´s greetings to you too

Trump has made a second career out of doing the same so no harm no foul.

To give a proper explanationfor the prediction rather than just making a snide remark, both previous waves of Elves have had sets that have done well and other that haven´t (jut like most themes). The smallest sets have  always done well so far and the biggest ones have struggled (unless you got a great buy-in). It´s not possible that all of these will be winners now the cat is out of the bag. Sets like 84 and 85 seem to be the weakest due to content and that has been borne out by their sales rank on Amazon.

As I also mentioned, there are going to be difference between US and Euro markets and my prediction is based on Euro demand and supply.

Let´s check back in a year and see how I did.

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by Val-E

[Brian Briggs]

On 29.12.2017 at 3:18 PM, Val-E said:

I think we are seeing the typical disparities between markets, as with Secret Marketplace which is gold in the US and can still be found in shops here below RRP.

41175 has been pretty much 30-50% off on Amazon all through its lifecycle so there are a lot to soak up and we know this is a niche theme.

So far, all the sets ending in  a 1 have been winners so that sounds like reason to believe in 41181.

Secret Marketplace did very well here before Christmas with selling upwards to 2x RRP, especially considering the fact that it could easily be had for 50% off during the previous LEGO sale.

[Villager Chris]

These keep popping back on Amazon. I ordered these recently. One had a seal code from week 42 (punctured seal code) and one from week 19 (printed). Ordered very close together but not at the same time. Anyone got a later seal code from a recent order?

Edited January 10, 2018 by Villager Chris

[Fenix_2k1]

On 29/12/2017 at 7:54 PM, Leopard said:

I understand the 41172 but I feel like I am missing the big picture on 41181...Val always sounds convincing tho 

So convincing I picked up 10 in the sah sale. I can't see why they'd be in demand but at £60ish for 10 it's worth a punt.

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

So convincing I picked up 10 in the sah sale. I can't see why they'd be in demand but at £60ish for 10 it's worth a punt.

They were less than 7 euros a shot at Amazon France today.....

[Villager Chris]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

They were less than 7 euros a shot at Amazon France today.....

 

3 hours ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

So convincing I picked up 10 in the sah sale. I can't see why they'd be in demand but at £60ish for 10 it's worth a punt.

I get the wooden spoon for buying just 1 at £6.99 from Amazon today.

Question is, are they really retired? 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

They were less than 7 euros a shot at Amazon France today.....

But, limit 2 or can you wipe them out? 

[Val-E]

They were limited to 6 and they had 14 in stock last time I looked. Guess they are gone by now. No Prime exclusivity either.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

7 minutes ago, Val-E said:

They were limited to 6 and they had 14 in stock last time I looked. Guess they are gone by now. No Prime exclusivity either.

 

[Val-E]

6 is a high limit for a low price.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

4 minutes ago, Val-E said:

6 is a high limit for a low price.

∞ is my number ;-)

Yes, I know... it's normally 2 and used to be 5. I assume LEGO enforce these limits.

[mtchrs]

I’ve gone in on these.
Thanks KMart (Australia)

[Furious_george]

At $20Au you will be fine.