Sets to pick up early 2016!

[justapilgrim]

WM has them at $19. Could be solid gainer but who knows

[Copterman]

On 1/19/2016 at 7:09 PM, Jeffrey_Dollars said:

MF's and Poe's x-wings at at least 35% off... slave I when promos add up to at least 15%... is the batcave a given?... mystery machines?

What kind of promos are you referring to? I didn't think exclusives went on sale. Thanks for your help in advance.

[Jeffrey_Dollars]

5 hours ago, Copterman said:

What kind of promos are you referring to? I didn't think exclusives went on sale. Thanks for your help in advance.

double points + promo set giveaways that i can sell on ebay and consider the profit as a discount on the set i actually paid for, rather considering it it's own transaction. Hopefully you understand what im trying to say, as i am not the best at articulating.

[Copterman]

Thanks Jeffrey, Makes sense.

[diablo2112]

The best play right now, in which you'll hit the post EOL bump within a few weeks if not a few days, is to grab as many 42009 off Amazon at $220 as you can manage, starting immediately.  Even a day or two wait may be too late  This is already marked retired by Lego.   My prediction, this is a $300 set by April 1, 2016. 

Another good buy is 21301 at $44.  This is already a $100 set in the EU, and once MSRP stock is gone in the US, prices will quickly double.  

Edited January 21, 2016 by diablo2112

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, diablo2112 said:

The best play right now, in which you'll hit the post EOL bump within a few weeks if not a few days, is to grab as many 42009 off Amazon at $220 as you can manage, starting immediately.  Even a day or two wait may be too late  This is already marked retired by Lego.   My prediction, this is a $300 set by April 1, 2016. 

Another good buy is 21301 at $44.  This is already a $100 set in the EU, and once MSRP stock is gone in the US, prices will quickly double.  

I respectfully disagree!  If European data is anything to go buy, too many cranes have been hoarded already for the market available to absorb it and buying in at anything less than 20% off is a risky move - see Unimog and 4x4 crawler 9398.

[chezzzuk]

The best play right now, in which you'll hit the post EOL bump within a few weeks if not a few days, is to grab as many 42009 off Amazon at $220 as you can manage, starting immediately.  Even a day or two wait may be too late  This is already marked retired by Lego.   My prediction, this is a $300 set by April 1, 2016. 

Another good buy is 21301 at $44.  This is already a $100 set in the EU, and once MSRP stock is gone in the US, prices will quickly double.  

I respectfully disagree!  If European data is anything to go buy, too many cranes have been hoarded already for the market available to absorb it and buying in at anything less than 20% off is a risky move - see Unimog and 4x4 crawler 9398.

If you believe the long term price price of 42009 is much higher, then 20% does not make that much difference in your overall profit. And if you look at actual CAGR then you would in the same level playing field as someone who bought it at a 20% discount a year or so ago.

[Val-E]

The person who bought it a year ago at 20% probably had little idea what they were doing, though. With Technic either buy early very cheap or sit it out till the last quarter before retirement - amazon had them for 35% off for a whole month late last year so you can have your cake and eat it.

[gregpj]

13 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

The person who bought it a year ago at 20% probably had little idea what they were doing, though. With Technic either buy early very cheap or sit it out till the last quarter before retirement - amazon had them for 35% off for a whole month late last year so you can have your cake and eat it.

Huh? I bought lots a year ago at 20%-30% off and QFLL'ed some locally, kept some. This set was due for retirement in Fall 2015, it stuck around a little longer than expected. Waiting until the last minute is a good strategy if you can pull it off, but not everyone likes to wear out their F5 key.

42009 will be a winner despite it being stock piled or not. It's an awesome set that was so easy to flip...

[Val-E]

If it´s so easy in North America, better for you! Here it was in plenty of shops and heavily discounted throughout its predicted life cycle of 2.5 years. On typical reselling sites, it is trading at under RRP still. The outlook for construction based Technic sets is generally positive but for the same money a Tumbler or Red 5 would have been a better choice.

There´s also an issue with the new PF update which seems not to be backward compatible. I know that this probably won´t worry people who buy the set as a standalone item, but it might be as big a revolution as the move to studless. Beware in this case the Volvo Loader.

I do hope it does well, as I have a few myself but caution is advised unless you know what you are doing.

[gregpj]

9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

If it´s so easy in North America, better for you! Here it was in plenty of shops and heavily discounted throughout its predicted life cycle of 2.5 years. On typical reselling sites, it is trading at under RRP still. The outlook for construction based Technic sets is generally positive but for the same money a Tumbler or Red 5 would have been a better choice.

There´s also an issue with the new PF update which seems not to be backward compatible. I know that this probably won´t worry people who buy the set as a standalone item, but it might be as big a revolution as the move to studless. Beware in this case the Volvo Loader.

I do hope it does well, as I have a few myself but caution is advised unless you know what you are doing.

What are you talking about the new PF update? Do you mean the pneumatics in the new Aroc set? The power functions haven't changed.... I would love a link if you have one, my googling has come up empty.

[Val-E]

PM sent so as not to derail thread further.

[Copterman]

I am a collector first before a reseller, so I tend to have a bias against sets I'm not interested in. I am very much a licensed set kind of guy. SW, Batman and LOTR mainly. I have a problem imagining sets like the mobile crane and Birds appreciating so much EOL. I'd love to hear perspective on why people are willing to pay double for a non-licensed set. There is no particular connection with those sets. No nostalgia or rabid fandom motivation.

[firos]

The Birds was the first set that i bought after coming back to LEGO. I started with CMF's and then I started looking for buying a set but all there was were Star Wars, Super Heroes, Friends, City and all these generic or licensed themes with which I didn't had any kind of relation. The only ones that catch my eye were the modulars, but they were/are to expensive. When I found out about the LEGO-Ideas program I was very pleased with its community nature and the fact that the resulting sets were made by a collaboration between a non-Lego employee fan and the Lego design team. The Birds set was the only non-licensed set available i i could relate with more than with the licensed stuff.

So, I don't know if this brings any light to why the Birds set can enjoy a growth in price, but sometimes it's not about the licensed stuff, but the other way around.

[tractorboy]

12 hours ago, Copterman said:

I am a collector first before a reseller, so I tend to have a bias against sets I'm not interested in. I am very much a licensed set kind of guy. SW, Batman and LOTR mainly. I have a problem imagining sets like the mobile crane and Birds appreciating so much EOL. I'd love to hear perspective on why people are willing to pay double for a non-licensed set. There is no particular connection with those sets. No nostalgia or rabid fandom motivation.

There was a time when Lego was just about Lego and not exclusive minifigs or movie licenses. Sets like Birds are just well designed, fun to build and look great. A great Lego set in other words, with a wide appeal to people who just like Lego for being Lego. These fundamentals still matter to many Lego fans and collectors and should be ignored at your peril if you're an investor.

Edited January 22, 2016 by tractorboy

[Salimr]

I think birds should be bought because it is different people who like it. The people who usually buy super hero and Star Wars already spend their money there. I have personally seen many people in my toys r us picking this up who did not look like a 10 year old boy or a Star Wars fan

I even look at my own kids. My son goes straight for super hero or Star Wars. My daughter saves her money and does not usually buy lego but she bought birds after looking at it once. Also did this with Mars rover, and maersk.

Clearly I should watch her habits for investment advice as she picks winners

[Anomander]

42009 was the Technic blue chip investment set recommended on articles online from last year after 8053's performance, so is pribably heavily hoarded for a Technic set.

On the other hand, it is an impressive set, construction themed, and there's no remake this year mentioned, so it should rise respectably during the upcoming year. Just not as explosive as the fanfare blaring from the goldrush hype was trumpeting.

[Crustybeaver]

1 hour ago, Anomander said:

42009 was the Technic blue chip investment set recommended on articles online from last year after 8053's performance, so is pribably heavily hoarded for a Technic set

EVERY set is heavily hoarded these days

[Phil B]

10 minutes ago, Crustybeaver said:

EVERY set is heavily hoarded these days

EXCEPT Chima .... Now there's an opportunity!

[Guest TabbyBoy]

47 minutes ago, Phil B said:

EXCEPT Chima .... Now there's an opportunity!

... and NINJAGO, FRIENDS, NEXO KNIGHTS, CITY, ELVES, MINDSTORMS, TECHNIC and all the other over-produced "junk" ;-)

[Muffin Cup]

On 1/21/2016 at 0:31 AM, diablo2112 said:

The best play right now, in which you'll hit the post EOL bump within a few weeks if not a few days, is to grab as many 42009 off Amazon at $220 as you can manage, starting immediately.  Even a day or two wait may be too late  This is already marked retired by Lego.   My prediction, this is a $300 set by April 1, 2016. 

Another good buy is 21301 at $44.  This is already a $100 set in the EU, and once MSRP stock is gone in the US, prices will quickly double.  

This is the advice I most agree with (other than the usual star wars stuff). 

People say the same things every time with large star wars sets like the red five, "too many resellers!" but when the time comes, prices go up. 

The 42009 is an astoundingly intricate and functional model. I don't know how I feel about buying many at retail (still ok), but it was certainly excellent with the sales. This is likely the last chance to get this set at near-retail price if you want any at all. 

21301 Birds is another great pick. One year lifespan and has casual appeal across the board (meaning beyond just lego lovers). Casual appeal should not be underestimated. Everyone I know thinks this set looks great. 

Don't trick yourself - is the set sweet? Would you buy it yourself? For both the birds and the crane, the answer is yes - I own the models myself, and have even given birds as a gift. 

[Salimr]

The Crain is really nice! It is totally worth the large price tag. It is great for display but you can actually let your kids play with it as it does not fall apart easily like some sets.

[Buchimuer]

The Crain is really nice! It is totally worth the large price tag. It is great for display but you can actually let your kids play with it as it does not fall apart easily like some sets.

Haha. My 2yr old son just pull the crane out today . But yeah, I agree with you. It's a really cool and solid designed set.