As I wait for the Lego store to open

[Honor_Frog5326]

Hello,

happy to be joining this community.

i just visited the Lego store the other day to buy a gift for a friends child. They were sold out in the store and when I was looking online I found this website.

then I started researching Legos and investing and I'm hooked on the idea. I lovvvvvvvvvvvved Legos as a kid, still do.

I'm a 26 year prior military guy who has been learning all he can about saving and investing the last couple years. And this is such a fun and lucrative thing to be investing, and diversify my money. A lot of it is in safe territory right now, which isn't best for someone my age. 

Sooo, now I'm sitting here in the downtown Disney parking lot waiting for the Lego store to open so I can go in and make my first purchases.

i spent hours this weekend researching about Legos.

plan on getting 10248 Ferrari F40, maybe 10220 Volkswagen, 10247 Ferris wheel if they have it, 10236 ewoks village, maybe 75102 Poe damerons Xwing

any other suggestions? (If you read this before store open)

 

and last night I bought a 21014 villa savoye for retail price online.

im excited!!

 

hello everyone, thanks for reading, and welcoming in and all advice. I'll be reading the newbie forums.

[wsuskee]

Pick up 10236 while you have the chance.  Most of the others I would wait for a good promo or double vip points.  

[justapilgrim]

Everything you listed is long term hold, go grab some.birds sets while.you can

[Deanfjr]

23 minutes ago, justapilgrim said:

Everything you listed is long term hold, go grab some.birds sets while.you can

I have contemplated about the birds, My wife would enjoy the décor for the spring time around the house, you think for investment?

[jaxman]

UN Headquarters is on its way out and is available on Amazon right now.

[thegooch49]

35 minutes ago, Deanfjr said:

I have contemplated about the birds, My wife would enjoy the décor for the spring time around the house, you think for investment?

Absolutely. This set won't go to the moon. It's an IDEAS set, $100 in a couple years seems realistic to me. This set might have more appeal overseas down the road. I think this is a good little set, that has some good upside potential. 

[Honor_Frog5326]

Ive contemplated the birds sets, still learning a lot and have a lot of things left i know i want to buy... Went kind of HAM at the lego store today.

picked up: 76203 The Tumbler, 75919 indominus rex breakout, 10251 Brick bank, 21122 Nether Fortress (minecraft), and 21304 Dr. Who

Then picked up online at lego.shop cuz they didn't have in store like i hoped, 10236 Ewok Village , 75102 Poes X-Wing

My girlfriend was like "WHAT DID YOU DO"

then i put them in my brick folio, and she is suddenly very supportive haha

[justapilgrim]

6 hours ago, Deanfjr said:

I have contemplated about the birds, My wife would enjoy the décor for the spring time around the house, you think for investment?

yes for investment. it is retired in EU and selling at almost double MSRP. A little indicator on possibilities here, it is sold out a lot of online retailers, and you stated that you were outside a lego store, where it has been on discount. Its nice to see an investment go up sooner than later for newer investors. 

[Mos_Eisley]

6 hours ago, Honor_Frog5326 said:

Ive contemplated the birds sets, still learning a lot and have a lot of things left i know i want to buy... Went kind of HAM at the lego store today.

picked up: 76203 The Tumbler, 75919 indominus rex breakout, 10251 Brick bank, 21122 Nether Fortress (minecraft), and 21304 Dr. Who

Then picked up online at lego.shop cuz they didn't have in store like i hoped, 10236 Ewok Village , 75102 Poes X-Wing

My girlfriend was like "WHAT DID YOU DO"

then i put them in my brick folio, and she is suddenly very supportive haha

Why is she suddenly supportive?  If you didn't want any of those sets tomorrow, you'd have to return them to not lose money.

[Jeffrey_Dollars]

58 minutes ago, justapilgrim said:

yes for investment. it is retired in EU and selling at almost double MSRP. A little indicator on possibilities here, it is sold out a lot of online retailers, and you stated that you were outside a lego store, where it has been on discount. Its nice to see an investment go up sooner than later for newer investors. 

Do you know what the discount price is? i see 44.99 at @SAH which is RRP?

[dcdfan]

yes for investment. it is retired in EU and selling at almost double MSRP. A little indicator on possibilities here, it is sold out a lot of online retailers, and you stated that you were outside a lego store, where it has been on discount. Its nice to see an investment go up sooner than later for newer investors. 

Do you know what the discount price is? i see 44.99 at @SAH which is RRP?

The sale price at Lego was $35.99

[Jeffrey_Dollars]

Is that still going on? 

[dcdfan]

Is that still going on? 

Dunno

[Honor_Frog5326]

3 hours ago, Mos_Eisley said:

Why is she suddenly supportive?  If you didn't want any of those sets tomorrow, you'd have to return them to not lose money.

You are mostly correct,

but Indominis Rex and tumblr both show a very nice profit in the brick folio right now even though they haven't hit  EOL. 

It helped her see the concept of them as an investment and not a toy.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Honor_Frog5326
Typo

[fossilrock]

13 hours ago, Honor_Frog5326 said:

Ive contemplated the birds sets, still learning a lot and have a lot of things left i know i want to buy... Went kind of HAM at the lego store today.

picked up: 76203 The Tumbler, 75919 indominus rex breakout, 10251 Brick bank, 21122 Nether Fortress (minecraft), and 21304 Dr. Who

Then picked up online at lego.shop cuz they didn't have in store like i hoped, 10236 Ewok Village , 75102 Poes X-Wing

My girlfriend was like "WHAT DID YOU DO"

then i put them in my brick folio, and she is suddenly very supportive haha

I'm not trying to burst the happy bubble, but I think reality is a dish best served cold.

None of these sets have technically gained any real value yet!  Your brickfolio value is actually a loser at the moment, unless you cash out in a TRU parking lot and mostly break even.  The brickfolio values are actually skewed, because once you factor in fees, shipping, and time costs on all these sets, there's about a 20% reduction in price (and that's if it's retired).  In your case, none of these are retired, and so they can still be found at retail.   I'm not sure what your amazon/ebay selling experience is, but I think you would be a little more cautious, if you knew what those outlets entailed.

So, to be clear, you're not making any real profit on this stuff, as of yet, because NONE OF IT is retired!  In fact, only 2 sets that I see in this list have potential this year.  Your girlfriend is right to be a little concerned.

Let's go through your list.  Let's start with Indominous Rex.  Ok that set has been good to make about 25.00 in profit over the last few months if you bought at RRP, but that was when it was OOS quite a bit over the last few months. But, now it is back in stock at lego and targets, and it is in mass right now.  It will now float down to RRP. So, it might take a few years for that to even return to the level it was selling at last July and people were snatching these sets up in a frenzy because the movie created the demand.  Now that demand has subsided a bit.  Out of all the sets you purchased, only Tumbler is definitely retiring.  That means that set might make you some cash in a year, if you bail from it early.  But, i'm not 100% sold on the batman theme like some.  Yes, previous UCS batmobile did well, but that was during a different era.  

Ewok Village "may" retire this year, but you never know.  The Lego Group may keep EV around, and give people choices in regards to big Star Wars playsets once the Hoth Rebel Base comes out.  I like this set, and think over time it will make money.  But, are you willing to wait 5 years on it?  You may have to.  

The rest of your sets were just released within the last few months.  Brick Bank shouldn't even count as an investment until 2018 at the earliest, because it might be sticking around for 4 to 5 years.  I see you listed, Ferrari, and Ferris Wheel, but those are sets that were just released, and I don't think will retire anytime soon (years!).

Dr Who is a minor risk, and may retire early next year.  

Poe's X-wing is a good choice for a FA set, but it may take some time since it's not retired.  No one knows how long that one will be out..

In my opinion, if you are starting out in this investment train, then it's better to purchase sets that are retiring (only set on your list that meets that criteria is Tumbler).  That way you can build capital quicker, but it takes about 2 to 3 years to really get moving. 

Lately, there are a LOT of noob's that are rushing in here, because they read on USA today that if you go out and buy practically ANY lego set, you'll be swimming in gold.  While Lego is still probably the best bet for those that like plastic collectibles at the moment, it's still a grind and not exactly easy money, like many of these articles proclaim.  In fact, each time I read these articles, they never talk about the other aspect - ACTUALLY SELLING THEM!  

Edited January 12, 2016 by fossilrock

[Cheese]

Even though I'm a newbie to Lego investing, I'm quite experienced when it comes to investing in other assets, being someone who works in Banking and seen a number of speculative bubbles in my time (eCommerce, Tech, Commodities).  The danger signs are always there, when you see people piling in (Silver and Oil - the number of retail investors that got caught out in is huge) on the back of recent media articles and then diving in head first, thinking it's easy money and that they'll double their money in next to no time.  Based on the posts that I have read, this looks like this is happening with Lego and I can definitely see a bubble forming and what typically happens is inexperienced people get burnt.  The added challenge with Lego, unlike with financial markets, is liquidity. With Lego, there are only certain markets where one can dispose of investments and in the event there isn't demand (with the exception of those earlier, desirable sets), coupled with oversupply through the hoarders trying to exit, then you're holding stock that you cant shift, regardless of the value that is showing in your Brick Portfolio.   Worse thing for any investment, is not being able to dispose of it, in an efficient manner.  In such an event, prices collapse and then the bubble bursts.  This could then have a knock on impact to the primary market, where a number of newbies exit, as a result of being burnt.  Given that there are increased numbers who are hoarding, it will be interesting to see what happens to the secondary market, 12 to 18 months down the line.  I myself, do have one eye on investment, but I'm not looking for strong cashflow to supplement my living, but just to pay for my own sets, and for a bit of fun on the side.  If you don't want to get burnt, you should only have Lego as a small part of your investment strategy and treat any growth as a bonus, and ultimately enjoy these great sets. 

[Phil B]

2 hours ago, fossilrock said:

[snip] ...

Lately, there are a LOT of noob's that are rushing in here, because they read on USA today that if you go out and buy practically ANY lego set, you'll be swimming in gold.  While Lego is still probably the best bet for those that like plastic collectibles at the moment, it's still a grind and not exactly easy money, like many of these articles proclaim.  In fact, each time I read these articles, they never talk about the other aspect - ACTUALLY SELLING THEM!  

I have only recently started (before the whole USA Today thingy though) with LEGO selling and even though my primary focus is part-out (which I know is a long grind, I'm doing it because I love handling LEGO, and can be quite OCD in terms of sorting, so I thought it was a good fit to make a few bucks in due time and see where it goes), I have occasionally strayed from my objective and/or bought a few sets that were not good Part Out material after all, and have been trying to sell on eBay. I can definitely attest to this last statement - selling is HARD, especially when your feedback score is low (under 1000, definitely when under 100) and you have low volumes to sell. Even Gingerbread House, which was a totally easy sell before the holidays, didn't fly "automatically".

I'm taking it as a learning experience, and using the time I get to experiment with different selling forms and mediums. Soon my BrickLink store will open and I hope to list some sets there as well. But again .... getting started will be the hard part, even just pricing all those different kinds of brick right for a sale will be more art than science, Price Guide or no Price Guide.

So @fossilrock's word of warning should be heeded very closely!

[fossilrock]

I feel a lot of these articles are misguided.  They tend to refer to the past, and make it seem like these are the conditions of the present, when they are not.  Unless you are one of the 2 to 5%ers  sitting on some retired sets like Taj Mahal, MF, and some of the earlier modulars, you are more than likely not going to receive returns greater than 50% across an entire porfolio once you subtract, fees, shipping, and taxes. 

Although, I will admit, I did pretty well selling retired sets, as well as flipping a few non-retired, but OOS sets over the holidays.  However, now that January has come, things have slowed down quite a bit!  I've been selling a variety of collectible toys since the late 90's (started with mcfarlane and star wars to make some extra cash when I just got out of college), but started the lego game in late 2013, when I started buying architecture, and then LOTR/Hobbit sets to hold and flip. Right now, i'm sitting on about 90% of my "investments" as retired stock or sets that are retired in europe, but still haven't had that tag in the States.  However, going into this year, i'm getting the jitters about investing heavily into a lot of sets on today's market (except for a few here and there).  I've seen similar signs before in other themes, and markets.   I'm feeling confident about many of the sets I have in my portfolio, but I can tell you that if you are looking at this strictly as an investment, that there should be a big warning sign attached to this game.  The more people that jump in today, and buy up sets on the market today, you have to give it at least 2 years before many of those sets are not only retired, but also appreciating at a rate to make your time worthwhile. 

However, one thing I will say is if you are also a builder/collector and an investor, you shouldn't have to fear as much, as those that are strictly investors.  Personally, one of the nicer things about brickpicker is that there are many here that fit the collector/investor criteria, and trading in retired or retiring sets is always an option here.  I have a five year old that loves to build and play with lego, so if things go far south, I can just trade off sets, and get sets he would like.. In fact, I wouldnt' have to spend another dime on toys for quite some time, if that happened.  As long as you have a decent portfolio, even if the market collapses, you can still head down that avenue and trade some of your sets...  But the key here is having a good investment of "retired sets".  THIS IS KEY!  And that is another thing many of these articles don't talk about.  I think you really do want to achieve a portfolio of mostly retired sets.  A lot of the sets on his list are great, don't get me wrong, but it's a 2 year window, at minimum before it gets to a point where the sets will start to be worth the investment, and thats if the market is still stable by then.  Brickbank, Ferrari, and Ferris Wheel will be much longer.

Those that are starting out, are going to have to wait a bit for the sets they are currently buying to retire.  Point is, try to achieve a portfolio of mostly retired sets that are going to hold their value.  I think a lot of the sets in his list will do that.  Just not right now.

Edited January 12, 2016 by fossilrock

[Deanfjr]

Great post, makes sense. I have re-entered the world of Lego with my son, we are having fun buying & building. I have not picked up many sets to keep for sealed investment that we wouldn't want for ourselves to build. Or we have gotten sets that might be worth something down the road and built them because we want them and hey if they are worth money, the heck they will still be worth money just not as much if we kept them NIB, but on the flip side we got our money out of them by build / play time, and don't forget being a father and bonding with a young child is priceless compared to whatever set will appreciate to any value.  

[josh_676]

2 hours ago, LahH001 said:

Even though I'm a newbie to Lego investing, I'm quite experienced when it comes to investing in other assets, being someone who works in Banking and seen a number of speculative bubbles in my time (eCommerce, Tech, Commodities).  The danger signs are always there, when you see people piling in (Silver and Oil - the number of retail investors that got caught out in is huge) on the back of recent media articles and then diving in head first, thinking it's easy money and that they'll double their money in next to no time.  Based on the posts that I have read, this looks like this is happening with Lego and I can definitely see a bubble forming and what typically happens is inexperienced people get burnt.  The added challenge with Lego, unlike with financial markets, is liquidity. With Lego, there are only certain markets where one can dispose of investments and in the event there isn't demand (with the exception of those earlier, desirable sets), coupled with oversupply through the hoarders trying to exit, then you're holding stock that you cant shift, regardless of the value that is showing in your Brick Portfolio.   Worse thing for any investment, is not being able to dispose of it, in an efficient manner.  In such an event, prices collapse and then the bubble bursts.  This could then have a knock on impact to the primary market, where a number of newbies exit, as a result of being burnt.  Given that there are increased numbers who are hoarding, it will be interesting to see what happens to the secondary market, 12 to 18 months down the line.  I myself, do have one eye on investment, but I'm not looking for strong cashflow to supplement my living, but just to pay for my own sets, and for a bit of fun on the side.  If you don't want to get burnt, you should only have Lego as a small part of your investment strategy and treat any growth as a bonus, and ultimately enjoy these great sets. 

Exactly, bet what you can afford to lose and use strageies to minimise losses. 

[Deanfjr]

Just scooped up 10672 Lego jr Bat-cave. on sale 23.99 on a call to check status from Lego.com with free shipping! Been wanting this for my son. The lady said 1 per person. only a few left, & hard to find!

Edited January 12, 2016 by Deanfjr