Lego 76023 The Tumbler Caught Speeding In The Passing Lane

[jaisonline]

I'll dive right into this article by discussing the investment potential of the "comes in black" 76023 Lego Tumbler set. It appears production was stopped for the $199.99 76023 Lego Tumbler set months ago about the same time Lego slapped the infamous "retiring soon" tag.  European and US  Lego Shop At Home websites have either sold-out (red font for those who track that) or removed this set's page entirely.  In the US, only Amazon and Target have stock currently.  According to Brickpickers who try to track inventory like @trekgate502 , the current inventory at those 2 online retailers could be gone by the time the 4th NFL Wild-Card game finishes this Sunday.  Regardless of the availability left, the clock is near midnight folks. Time is running out so please check the Brickpicker Inventory Stock Checker. 

http://www.brickpicker.com/brickwatcher/lego-stock-checker.cfm#76023-1

Since coming out of my Lego Dark Age in 2012, there have been only one time I felt a set's popularity growth was guaranteed to grow after retirement (aka a Grand Slam) : 10212 : UCS Star Wars Imperial Shuttle.  The Tumbler is the second set I've had this feeling about. 

In recent months, this set has fallen out of favor with many Brickpickers.  They have their reasons.

Reasons why this set is a "Grand Slam".

• It's Batman. This character has global appeal.
• Past set comparisons can help predict future growth.
  • The initial $49.99 Tumbler set (7888 from 2008) continues to sell for a premium : $470 MISB and $244 used.   Granted, this set had a very limited production run and was the only Lego Tumbler available for from 2008 to 2013.
  • The Batmobile: Ultimate Collectors' Edition (7784 from 2007) retailed for $69.99 and grew to $432 MISB and $208 Used.
  • 2013's Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout has increased from $159.99 to $238 in one year of retirement.
  • If this set performances 1/3rd as well as of the previous 3 sets, that gives us a secondary market price of $700-$800 within 3-4 years of retirement.  If achieved, that growth will be considered a success.
• More Batman films are coming.
• Building this set is fun.  The designer used various elements and techniques to create the Tumbler's complex outer design.
• Batmobiles are popular. There have been countless debates whether the 1966 Adam West version is better than the 1989's Tim Burton one and if the latter is better than the Tumbler.  The Tumbler was introduced in Christopher Nolan's 2006 Batman film.  He wanted something different than done in past films.  The point is that any vehicle Batman drives remains popular.
• Lego marketed this set as an advanced model and included a UCS-styled plaque.
• Christian Bale and Health Ledger minifigures are included and both remain exclusive to this set.  I doubt they will appear in future sets especially this Joker version.

• The vehicle is massive.  It measures over 5” high, 15” long and 9” wide. Don't let the 1,869 piece count fool you as most pieces are Technic bricks, medium to large plates and semi-exclusive tires.

 

The picture below shows the minifigure to vehicle scale.

• Many elements are still harder to find for those trying to "bricklink" this set.  9 non-minifigure elements are available in only 6 or less sets including 1 element still being exclusive as of writing this article (Pearl Gold Wheel Bearing Back).
• Retail availability of this set appears it will be less than 2 years since it was introduced in August 2014.

I don't have many issues with this nor identified "Cons".  One not is this model is meant to be displayed and not played around with by the kids.  The fenders and rear roof are two of the more fragile areas.

One review I've liked since the set was introduced, was written by Ace Kim's in Aug 2014.

http://www.fbtb.net/2014/08/18/review-76023-the-tumbler/

In summary, The Tumbler has a "love it or hate it" affect on Lego fans. One thing for certain is that Batman fans will never forget The Tumbler when debating Batmobiles for decades to come.

NOTE: Please be sure to check-out our popular forum topic and the Lego Designer Video for more information. Also included below is a link to the awesome Jay Leno's Garage episode which highlights a film used Tumbler.

 

 

 

 

View full blog article

Edited January 8, 2016 by jaisonline
updated with 1 year prediction.

[oneknightr]

I think this set's a Grand Slam as well! I've got my target number but may try to pick up one or two more. 

[josh_676]

Good write up! 

[jaisonline]

Looks like Amazon is sold-out.  Target still has stock with a max of 3 units per order.

http://goto.target.com/c/65738/81938/2092?u=http://www.target.com/p/lego-super-heroes-the-tumbler-76023/-/A-16752456

 

[botchy123]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw  

[Secret Squirrel]

Bagged myself a tumbler a few weeks ago, two days later was retired officially on lego store. UK ebay prices today on average 60-80% more than RRP. Is there an optimum time frame to look for in resell, I have read somewhere on the Web between 1 - 3 months after retirement but then I have read years to accumulate biggest returns.

Any advise greatly appreciated.

[nolanfan34]

Wasn't the retail of AA less than $169? Brickset says $159. Minor nit I know.

[rmendol1]

They actually had 4 of them at the Lego Store in Western NY yesterday on the floor. There may have been a few in the back as well

[brickshiftmama]

Also available at Mall of America Lego store.

[citymorgue]

I agree, this is an absolutely fantastic set.  It's a beautiful model that's for sure, and IMO, the Nolan trilogy was the best Batman films to date.  When people realize they can make a companion bat-pod to this set, it will only help increase it's appeal.  With the bat-pod, it truly becomes a complete set.

[meowsmeowsmeows]

Nice article.  Thanks.

One still has to wonder why they put the "Retiring Soon" tag in the US and Europe on this set unless it was that poor of a seller.  Lego could have let Tumbler slip off into Retirement without anyone knowing for quite awhile.  Lego didn't do it with Town Hall, but they've done it with Maersk EEE and Death Star, and Death Star certainly wasn't a poor seller given it was around 8 years.

[drow76abs]

Bought a few on Friday, few minutes after reading this. Not available at Target any longer.

[jaisonline]

at the time of writing this post, all major US online retailers are sold-out.

 

[NZ-EUG]

I'm suprised that this set didn't sell well in New Zealand as well, when is was released last year.

It realtailed for $399.99 NZD but if you pre ordered it, and purchased it online via Toy World, you could get it shipped for around $320 if my memory serves me correctly.

Considering the Tumbler has the pedergie of the first non Star Wars theme UCS set as well.

At the time, I only collected Star Wars UCS sets, but I just couldn't reisit the beauty and the accuracy of the build.

I'm glad I bought it, I'm still yet to build it, now that its hit its EOL, I might be tempted to sit on it.

[Rimmit]

This an excellent post!  Extremely well thought out in terms of why this set will do well.

I have been a collector of various things since I was 8 (now I'm 34) and since then I've learned a lot of what appreciates and what doesn't, as I have had a LOT of misses, and FINALLY in my mid to late 20's started really hitting it right and learning the trade as to what will do well and what won't.

GLOBAL APPEAL and LONG LASTING APPEAL CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED!  This is what drives many of the Lego sets to be Home Runs and why many do not make it there.  Just think of any major set that has far exceeded expectations, and most likely it has global appeal. 

I feel back in the early to mid 2000's minifigs were a HUGE reason to buy a set.  I have only recently gotten back into Legovesting, but just looking at set appreciation, I do not feel that Minifigs are as big of a draw anymore, but it definitely doesn't hurt.  It was not until about 2007 that I feel Lego caught on to the fact that the minifigs were just as valuable as the sets, so I feel they have diluted the minifig market.  Before people were buying cloud city just to get the Boba Fett.  I do not feel as strongly about minifigs as I did before.

The displayability of this piece cannot be understated and that is a huge driving force.  As the demographic for this movie ages, earns a larger salary, and now can afford to pay a premium for a high end collectible, they become more selective in what they buy.  When you are a kid, you don't care how it looks, if it is nicely displayable, etc.  As a mid 30's male with a wife (and many have wives at this point) you need to be HIGHLY selective of what you buy and display as you no longer have an entire house to work with.  No you might have one shelf or one room.  However, the pieces you choose to display are likely high end and you will pay a chunk of change to get it.

Truly the only thing working against this set was the one month retiring soon to sell out, which allowed hoarders to hoarde on mass.  Likely this will affect the 1-2 year game some, but It won't effect the 5-7 year game most likely where I honestly believe this set has a chance at selling for 1,000, as it is so ICONIC and unique.

Many people who get into the game later will want to buy the first UCS super heroes sets, and this is one of them, as I guarantee Lego is not done with UCS superheroes, or UCS in general. When that happens, this set will become even more valuable. If they make the new batmobile, this will take off to heights we can't even imagine, because people will want to have all three.