10240 - UCS: Red Five X-wing Starfighter

[thoroakenfelder]

just gonna leave this here X-Wing Vs. Death Star

[veloxnex]

New to the scene and chose a Red 5 at my local LEGO store for a first investment this past Monday. They must have had well over a dozen sets, which made me a little nervous that stock was so high, but stopped back in tonight and they were down to their final two so decided to snag them.

[ali1994]

Hello everybody!

I am new to this website so, happy to be here!

I am collecting LEGO for almost a decade but I became a LEGO investor this year. I have 2-3 simple questions. I have a chance to buy set 10240 for 230 dollars ( sealed and shipping etc included).

1. Is this a good price?

2.Where do you see this set in 1 year? around 250-300? 300-350? 350+?

2.Where do you see this set in more than 1 year?

Thank you.

[Battrax]

That question should best be directed to the Deal or No Deal thread.

[cladner]

breaking through the $300 barrier in the last couple of days on ebay and at amazon with shipping.

1.5x MSRP and its not even officially retired yet at USA LEGO Shop at Home though certainly it is done.

$400 will be here quicker than my irrational exuberance would have even thought possible especially if Rogue 1 gives OT X-wing some screen time.

[Battrax]

36 minutes ago, cladner said:

breaking through the $300 barrier in the last couple of days on ebay and at amazon with shipping.

1.5x MSRP and its not even officially retired yet at USA LEGO Shop at Home though certainly it is done.

$400 will be here quicker than my irrational exuberance would have even thought possible especially if Rogue 1 gives OT X-wing some screen time.

Yep, sold one for ~US$285 on Amazon. Surprised. Prices are even higher in the UK as far as ebay is concerned, already (had someone from the UK inquire on buying one from my BL store).

Edited January 24, 2016 by Battrax
Constant typos

[Sprocket77]

Lego Ireland now has this out of stock, expected ship date 9th of February, hope this is just a glitch

[lukiepete]

It looks like all over Europe 10240 went from "retired" to "temporarily out of stock." 

[RTRC]

Four more x wings at $300 here in North America on eBay. Then we'd be at $315. Still avaliable in Lego stores... can't wait for this to be retired.

[Emielvk]

They are passing the 300 euro mark on the dutch site marktplaats.nl keep them going ;-)

[Val-E]

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-10240-UCS-Red-Five-X-Wing-NISB-/121877999006?hash=item1c607ead9e:g:4H4AAOSw--1WqO4d

Going the other way on ebay, though!

[Crustybeaver]

51 minutes ago, Val-E said:

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-10240-UCS-Red-Five-X-Wing-NISB-/121877999006?hash=item1c607ead9e:g:4H4AAOSw--1WqO4d

Going the other way on ebay, though!

That's the first one that's sold sub 300 Euros for some time, it's nothing more than a blip

http://www.ebay.es/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&LH_ItemCondition=1000&_nkw=lego%2010240&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc&_trksid=p2045573.m1684

[Val-E]

I respectfully disagree! This past week seems to have been slowdown central on Ebay.SW fever may be waning and it´s the post Xmas blues. With Easter being early this year, Feb is probably going to be a key month as, after that we hit the holiday season and springtime.

[Crustybeaver]

Search again, looks like someone just bought one in Italy for 350 Euros. Maybe you're looking in the wrong place Eric

I'm seeing steady sales around 320- 360 Euro mark

[Val-E]

I´ve run a sold items search over the past month and recent prices are on average 10-15% down on the 1st week in Jan, which was the high point. 300-340 is the range now compared to 330-380 then. That can also be seen with DS and Tumbler. Remember, GBP has also devalued so that might come into play with Ebay stats.

Over on bricklink, 300 Euros is the SP and also the Jan average.

Also, the person that just sold one for 350 had to reduce their  original GBP price to sell their last units.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Val-E

[tractorboy]

We're bound to see some minor peaks and troughs in prices as we go through the year. It's perfectly normal to see a small dip now as the post EOL bump levels out. We'll probably see another during the summer as Lego sales slow down as they always do in summer.

[Val-E]

I just wish Disney would release their films earlier. R1 is going to cause another concentrated spike in demand for all things OT and it comes out on 16/12.

[Dr. Brick]

Keyword in this strategy is long-term hold. Slow and steady growth. I'm not going to look at my 15 10240 until November again.Heck I may actually leave them in the closet till 2017

[Freyke]

I know someone who sold this set for €375 in the Netherlands

[Hogi]

ive expierenced a small dip on several sets recently, i guess its just the end of reseller-buying of the shortyl retired sets like tumbler, ds, red5 + after-christmas sales have run out. the ppl need new money again.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

52 minutes ago, Dr. Brick said:

Keyword in this strategy is long-term hold. Slow and steady growth. I'm not going to look at my 15 10240 until November again.Heck I may actually leave them in the closet till 2017

Agree.
This is the problem that is surfacing now with Lego investment, people are in over their head and are desperate to unloading them. 
I don't see any reason &/0r reasonable money to be made at $290-300.   approx. 15% fees that leaves you with appox. $30-40 profit without giving free shipping.

 

[Crustybeaver]

5 hours ago, Val-E said:

I´ve run a sold items search over the past month and recent prices are on average 10-15% down on the 1st week in Jan, which was the high point. 300-340 is the range now compared to 330-380 then. That can also be seen with DS and Tumbler. Remember, GBP has also devalued so that might come into play with Ebay stats.

Over on bricklink, 300 Euros is the SP and also the Jan average.

Also, the person that just sold one for 350 had to reduce their  original GBP price to sell their last units.

In the time I've been reselling I'd say some of the highest prices for sold listings are the last week in December through to about the first week and a half of January. It's natural for prices to slope off around middle of Jan.

[Ensche]

18 minutes ago, Crustybeaver said:

It's natural for prices to slope off around middle of Jan.

Exactly. If a set reaches a certain value (often after the initial spike) after or around christmas, more and more sellers recognize that and want to jump on the "first hundred bucks (or whatever) profit-train". That leads to a small decrease in value due to higher supply.

But: nothing to worry about...

[lostontheverglow]

41 minutes ago, RTRC said:

But is it really better to hold for 3 years? If I hold an x wing for three months, sell it at current prices and make $25 in profits, isn't that better than holding for three years and profiting $110 (assuming it reaches $400 at 15% fees and $30 shipping)?

I think the situation here is a lot more complicated. This oversimplifies it a bit. If you hold a $200 product and sell it in three months for a $25 profit, that would mean you would have to profit $300 from that same product over the course of 3 years ($25*12). But say you sold 12 products for a profit of $25 today and made $300. That is not the same as selling the same product for a profit of $300 3 years in the future. Taking things such as inflation and missed opportunities cost elsewhere, the $300 3 years in the future is probably going to have less of a value than $300 today.

Selling a product for $25 every 3 months might be great if it was sustainable. But, the reason you can flip something like 10240 is because it's such a great set for investment in terms of post EOL value (nice ship, known brand, etc.). The question is whether you can consistently find sets to sell after 3 months for $25.

This is why it's to your advantage to find that sweet spot in between these two scenarios. Because if you wait too long, you're losing the opportunity of cashing in on your product and reinvesting it in something else that will experience faster growth (because all products will plateau in price eventually). The other side being can you find the next set to invest in that will give you that quick return.

I think this is kind of just looking at the tip of the iceberg, and it's a lot more complicated. Like @Jeffrey_Dollars said, "different strokes for different folks."

[dirtsounds]

Interesting.  Also quick flipping a larger quantity if sets in three months vs waiting long term means that you would need to find a lot of buyers.  Thats lots more chances for returns, non payment, etc.  Plus the time of selling, storage, etc.