10240 - UCS: Red Five X-wing Starfighter

[Kenxxx]

I bought one at my local USA Lego Store 3 days ago (Jan 05, 2016). They said it was their last... a week before they had dozens on the shelves.

[terrymc4677]

1 hour ago, Kenxxx said:

I bought one at my local USA Lego Store 3 days ago (Jan 05, 2016). They said it was their last... a week before they had dozens on the shelves.

It was their last...last one until the next shipment arrived that is. 

I've only got two of these, which is where my comfort level with this set is. There are several other $200 sets that I have more confidence in.

[pete411]

Ghostdad. These were widely available at Lego stores in the US last week. There were literally dozens at all of my local shops and now they're all sold out. Overall, prices are cratering as we experience after-holidays hangover. Tax refunds will start to roll in next month and I'm expecting a nice boost when TFA comes out on home video. Are you mad because this set is fetching 2x in Europe already? It's a complete different market and they ran out of stock several months before we did. 

Look. I'm more of a naysayer than most on this forum but you can take this set to the bank. I'm not talking about 400% growth or anything crazy, but you will get a solid return. Be patient. I will be pissed if TLG decides to make another massive run of this set and they still might.

Edited January 8, 2016 by pete411

[Quacs]

I must be missing something - this cheapest this set is selling for on eBay is $280 only a few weeks after they were widely available in B and M stores...and this is a bad thing?

[jaisonline]

I must be missing something - this cheapest this set is selling for on eBay is $280 only a few weeks after they were widely available in B and M stores...and this is a bad thing?

No. you are not missing anything.

[ISO8T0]

I bought one at my local USA Lego Store 3 days ago (Jan 05, 2016). They said it was their last... a week before they had dozens on the shelves.

Sp?

[Kenxxx]

Yep.

[mudcatsfan]

4 hours ago, GhostDad said:

The set is not still in production, though.  It has been sold out on LEGO Shop at Home for at least four months or so.  ToO disappeared around the same time, and is showing a similar lack of growth.

As best I can recall from 2014, literally every retiring exclusive showed about double the growth over MSRP (say, 60% vs. 30%, going by Amazon sales price; this includes free shipping, but that's a constant so the comparison still holds) in the same span of time (measured from last date of availability on LEGO Shop at Home; I'm talking US market here, since I only loosely follow the euro market).

It's not just a question of those two sets.  There is a continuing trend here.  For example, GE is currently $40-$50 below where FB was at the same time last year, and GE actually retired earlier in 2014 than FB did in 2013.

 

3 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

That's not true though.  Last production run that we know of was week 41.  So while it may not be in production anymore, it was very recently that it was taken out of production.

More importantly, though, is your assertion that it's been sold out for at least four months.  Look back over the last 11 pages of this topic - people were reporting it in store as late as Christmas week, which was only two weeks ago.

 

This quote is mine from the beginning of November:

Here are a small sample of others.  There could be more from more recently...I just stopped at December 22:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Secret Squirrel]

It was still available on the lego store uk Xmas 2015 then retired.

[Emielvk]

Let the building begin this was a secondhand stillg got two MISB.

[Val-E]

4hr build time, 4hrs to apply the canopy stickers!

[Huskers1236]

18 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

4hr build time, 4hrs to apply the canopy stickers!

I didn't even bother with mine.  It is nice that Lego throws in 2 sets of them since they know it's a b.s. sticker and should have just printed it. 

Again, a UCS set gets less love from Lego than a base play set.  10240 canopy - sticker  Poe's X-Wing - printed   What am I missing here?  Did they realize their failure and decide to go back to printing canopies?

[Emielvk]

Took about 4 hours indeed. Canopy stickers weren't applied. Did not put them in as well is a shame indeed it's not printed. Still a beautiful model kids are really excited about it and watching attack on death star scene on youtube

[Alpinemaps]

Comments about the ethics of parenting and posting pictures of children on the Internet aren't the purpose of this thread.  If you've got a concern, please contact the poster through PM or Report the post to the mods.

[Ed Mack]

While I appreciate the comments about the picture from all members, I think it is a rather innocent and fun picture that exemplifies the fun of LEGO.  One does have to be careful of what is posted on the internet, but in this case, I really don'r see any major problems if the parents are the ones who posted the picture.  

[labfreak7]

Ghostdad. These were widely available at Lego stores in the US last week. There were literally dozens at all of my local shops and now they're all sold out. Overall, prices are cratering as we experience after-holidays hangover. Tax refunds will start to roll in next month and I'm expecting a nice boost when TFA comes out on home video. Are you mad because this set is fetching 2x in Europe already? It's a complete different market and they ran out of stock several months before we did. 

Look. I'm more of a naysayer than most on this forum but you can take this set to the bank. I'm not talking about 400% growth or anything crazy, but you will get a solid return. Be patient. I will be pissed if TLG decides to make another massive run of this set and they still might.

Totally off topic- but yes I noticed a lag in sales lately as well and figured it was due to the Chrismas credit card bills rolling in.

[GhostDad]

I've got 16 each of 10237 and 10240, so I hope y'all are right.  But we need to apply consistent standards here.  I referred to availability at LEGO Shop at Home, that is to say, shop.lego.com, not brick and mortar stores.  The very fact that inventory is lingering at brick and mortar stores so long after being sold out at LEGO Shop at Home is not a good sign.

I have been following both these sets through brickpicker.com's stock tracker.  No one has to take my word for anything.  Just watch the Amazon third party seller prices, and compare them with what we saw in 2014 for, again, literally every retiring exclusive.  It's not even close.  If the recent mediocre appreciation of retiring exclusives doesn't bother you, that's fine, but there is no question that appreciation rates are dropping.  I watched ToO average around $250 shipped on Amazon throughout December, and R5 average about $10 more.  If that's enough of a post-retirement bump to make you confident about loading up next on EV, Sandcrawler, etc., go for it.  And never mind Pet Shop and Tower Bridge.  Looks like the grandkids will be picking up those puppies direct from LEGO Shop at Home at MSRP.

[GhostDad]

11 hours ago, Huskers1236 said:

I didn't even bother with mine.  It is nice that Lego throws in 2 sets of them since they know it's a b.s. sticker and should have just printed it. 

Again, a UCS set gets less love from Lego than a base play set.  10240 canopy - sticker  Poe's X-Wing - printed   What am I missing here?  Did they realize their failure and decide to go back to printing canopies?

Completely agree.  If I ran the company, I would order a production run of printed cockpit pieces in numbers roughly equal to the production of 10240.  Then offer them free, one each to anyone who mailed in a barcode from a 10240 box or could show through their LEGO Shop at Home order history that they had bought the set directly from Lego.  It would be a relatively inexpensive goodwill gesture for the company to make, and easily worthwhile to maintain UCS buyers' loyalty.  It would also be the right thing to do.

[Hogi]

9 hours ago, GhostDad said:

I've got 16 each of 10237 and 10240, so I hope y'all are right.  But we need to apply consistent standards here.  I referred to availability at LEGO Shop at Home, that is to say, shop.lego.com, not brick and mortar stores.  The very fact that inventory is lingering at brick and mortar stores so long after being sold out at LEGO Shop at Home is not a good sign.

I have been following both these sets through brickpicker.com's stock tracker.  No one has to take my word for anything.  Just watch the Amazon third party seller prices, and compare them with what we saw in 2014 for, again, literally every retiring exclusive.  It's not even close.  If the recent mediocre appreciation of retiring exclusives doesn't bother you, that's fine, but there is no question that appreciation rates are dropping.  I watched ToO average around $250 shipped on Amazon throughout December, and R5 average about $10 more.  If that's enough of a post-retirement bump to make you confident about loading up next on EV, Sandcrawler, etc., go for it.  And never mind Pet Shop and Tower Bridge.  Looks like the grandkids will be picking up those puppies direct from LEGO Shop at Home at MSRP.

what do you think is the reason for shrinking appreciation?

[Val-E]

What goes up must come down:

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-10240-X-WING-Starfighter-UCS-100-complet-neuf-scelle-new-sealed-/272100070616?hash=item3f5a6d94d8:g:7OMAAOSwX~dWkXLg

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-10240-RED-FIVE-X-WING-STARFIGHTER-NUOVO-RARO-Introvabile-/141867781317?hash=item2107fa8cc5:g:BHMAAOSwaA5WiUAa

Seems the champagne has lost its fizz on this one in Europe. It´ll be a while before we see 350-400 euro sales as had been common 2 weeks ago.

 

[biniou]

39 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

What goes up must come down:

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-10240-X-WING-Starfighter-UCS-100-complet-neuf-scelle-new-sealed-/272100070616?hash=item3f5a6d94d8:g:7OMAAOSwX~dWkXLg

http://www.ebay.es/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-10240-RED-FIVE-X-WING-STARFIGHTER-NUOVO-RARO-Introvabile-/141867781317?hash=item2107fa8cc5:g:BHMAAOSwaA5WiUAa

Seems the champagne has lost its fizz on this one in Europe. It´ll be a while before we see 350-400 euro sales as had been common 2 weeks ago.

 

January sales... ;P

[Val-E]

Well, there is temptation for some of us who made good money at peak window to buy back in now.

[GhostDad]

7 hours ago, Hogi said:

what do you think is the reason for shrinking appreciation?

For the big exclusives, I think the cause is primarily the ever-growing number of resellers.  It's really easy for anyone with a couple thousand dollars/euros to set aside a closet somewhere and fill it to the ceiling with Red 5's and Tower of Orthancs.  Add to that low barrier to entry the general opinion that Lego investing is 'low risk' compared with traditional investments like stocks or bonds (and the fact that both of those are still quite pricey; in Europe half the sovereign debt being issued today yields negative interest rates!), and lots of folks conclude that Lego is the safe, reliably profitable way to park their money.  Of course, as more people start to believe this, it becomes less and less true.

[tractorboy]

Oh look, it's gone back up again... (€379)

http://www.ebay.ie/itm/LEGO-10240-STAR-WARS-RED-5-X-WING-STARFIGHTER-BRAND-NEW-FACTORY-SEALED-/221982357106?hash=item33af2df672:g:Vh4AAOSwK7FWhVU4

No wait, it's gone back down again...(€351)

http://www.ebay.ie/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-X-Wing-UCS-10240-NEU-OVP-/201500170574?hash=item2eea58994e:g:VBgAAOSwwbdWGY59

 

[HandyHand]

9 hours ago, tractorboy said:

Oh look, it's gone back up again... (€379)

http://www.ebay.ie/itm/LEGO-10240-STAR-WARS-RED-5-X-WING-STARFIGHTER-BRAND-NEW-FACTORY-SEALED-/221982357106?hash=item33af2df672:g:Vh4AAOSwK7FWhVU4

No wait, it's gone back down again...(€351)

http://www.ebay.ie/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-X-Wing-UCS-10240-NEU-OVP-/201500170574?hash=item2eea58994e:g:VBgAAOSwwbdWGY59

Just shows the difference between sold prices in the UK and Germany. You can see a similar difference for example with the set 21301 Birds: sold above €100 in the UK, sold for around €90 in Germany.