HandyHand Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: Absolutely! However it is interesting to chart the progress of sets that retire at the same time - maybe 10240 will now stay at around 350-380 for some weeks and Tumbler will start to make gains and catch it up. Perhaps it was the movie, perhaps it was reseller fuelled. I think probably a bit of both. The hype of the Force Awakens movie has of course helped, and resellers who saw the price increase while realising they hadn't met their target number yet have most likely been buying up lower priced offers while trying to QFLL, surfing on the hype for marginal profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_676 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I have three 10240, and three tumblers, I would very much like the Tumbler to do well. All this talk of Lego hating the secondary market must be BS, otherwise they'd never be able to move the EOL stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It´s the secondary market for new sets that they hate, primarily. Retired products not so much, however, the odd remake to keep people on their toes can be expected. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 http://www.ebay.es/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231802709544&rmvSB=true There you go - a quick flip ad that barely lasted a couple of hours live and 2 units sold. We´ll see more of these in the next days.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I had my quota filled up long time ago so I was sitting quietly and just watching the things happen without paying too much attention.... It took me by surprise how quickly this set turned from Available to Retired on the Lego site and how quickly it climbed to the £300 mark (even if this is a panic buy mode).. Same with the Tumbler. I can sniff TH scenario for the Tumbler! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, hannibal said: I had my quota filled up long time ago so I was sitting quietly and just watching the things happen without paying too much attention.... It took me by surprise how quickly this set turned from Available to Retired on the Lego site and how quickly it climbed to the £300 mark (even if this is a panic buy mode).. Same with the Tumbler. I can sniff TH scenario for the Tumbler! I don´t think we can compare - TH just went without warning whereas these two were relatively on schedule and had retiring soon tags. Tumbler is still not retired in the US so people have had loads of time to get their fill. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: I don´t think we can compare - TH just went without warning whereas these two were relatively on schedule and had retiring soon tags. Tumbler is still not retired in the US so people have had loads of time to get their fill. I agree. Actually the US people have quite a tip with this one (Tumbler), it will make some people very rich However I do not agree 100%. If the Tumbler had some signs of retirement due relatively soon, then for the X-Wing nobody really knew. It could have retired tomorrow..or in another 2 years. We all know this is a game Lego plays with some sets...so in my opinion the X-Wing retiring now ~could~ be considered as a surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I´d say the opposite! Tumbler popped sooner than the average and 10240 had been speculated about for the whole off 2015 on here. The signs were there - reduced at SAH BF sale 2014, in and out of stock early 2015, dancing 3rd and 4th quarter in the US. In Europe we had plenty of warning it was going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 6 hours ago, josh_676 said: Christmas time next year may be a different story. Until christmas rolls around and the price drops and everyone says, well of course the price dropped all prices on exclusives drop at xmas. Then when it doesn't raise back up in the summer people will say, prices never raise in the summer, everyone is too busy outside, wait until christmas. Rinse, repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_676 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 3 hours ago, hannibal said: Interesting theory, Iwas more referencing the Rogue Squadron movie coming out shortly rather than the holiday season. One thing is for sure, I doubt we will see these going for under MSRP ever again, which means I'll make some cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2 hours ago, MarxMarvelous said: Until christmas rolls around and the price drops and everyone says, well of course the price dropped all prices on exclusives drop at xmas. Then when it doesn't raise back up in the summer people will say, prices never raise in the summer, everyone is too busy outside, wait until christmas. Rinse, repeat. This is the only good quarter for AFOL collector set growth (SW hype notwithstanding) - we can see an upturn in TH and other modular sales so Carpe Diem, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torville1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 On 04/01/2016 at 9:35 AM, Haay said: The early retirement prices were crazy and unrealistic. I hope the bubble is now getting deflated to proper prices again, and when the air has gone out of it and QFLL 'scum' have sold off their stock, I hope the realistic price will steadily climb to solid levels. It's all panic buying. People are desperate to get their hands on something that will no longer exist and the recent reports here in the newspapers that Lego is appreciating more than gold and shares in blue chips is adding fuel to the fire. There will be people who have offloaded a load of sets at a respectible 40% profit because people are willing to pay it. As the dust settles, the prices will fall slightly from current figures as the urgency to but will no longer be there. 2020 will be the time to look at selling this IMO as I anticipate this will go for around £450 - £500 but the gains from that point will not be as great as investing in other sets. Personally I never plan to sell my set and when my grandchildren go on antiques roadshow in 80 years time, they'll be able to buy a house with what it's worth! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sales have slowed down a lot since the weekend - it´s only really auctions that are moving right now. 10188 and 76023 seem to be maintaining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torville1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: Sales have slowed down a lot since the weekend - it´s only really auctions that are moving right now. 10188 and 76023 seem to be maintaining. They were bound to for the reasons I highlighted above. Markets are largely manipulated by the press. I remember a few years back a newspaper report saying the water supply had been potentially sabotaged. Within two days, you couldn't buy a bottle of water anywhere and there was a black market selling it for double the cost (and people were buying it too!). The Supermarkets and water companies announced that everything was fine. Things returned to normal and shelves were replenished in a week. I wonder how much firms and people profited from that little stunt? This is no different really. We all panic and practically break the internet when we get those emails saying 'last order date to ensure Christmas delivery' don't we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, torville1976 said: We all panic and practically break the internet when we get those emails saying 'last order date to ensure Christmas delivery' don't we? Last orders for Christmas already, crap, missed that report, better get out there buying now. Don't paaaaaannnnniiiiiicccccccc 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torville1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said: Last orders for Christmas already, crap, missed that report, better get out there buying now. Don't paaaaaannnnniiiiiicccccccc You've got your emails about that now? either your ISP is slow or someone is lying to you! It's all a conspiracy...................................... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostDad Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 On 1/2/2016 at 4:26 PM, valenciaeric said: I agree. The big power sellers are all ready to go at the 400 point so it will stick there for ages till they flush out their stock. 400 huh? Euros I take it. Here in the States, we're talking maybe $260 with free shipping on Amazon. Ugh. This set has been an absolute loser to date, though I think that has less to do with the set itself and more to do with the market in general. A few more days like today in the stock market (down 2+%), and I'll completely switch over to investing in, you know, actual investments that pay actual dividends, and aren't just big boxes of plastic pieces waiting for some fool to fork over 2 x MSRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 3 hours ago, GhostDad said: 400 huh? Euros I take it. Here in the States, we're talking maybe $260 with free shipping on Amazon. Ugh. This set has been an absolute loser to date, though I think that has less to do with the set itself and more to do with the market in general. A few more days like today in the stock market (down 2+%), and I'll completely switch over to investing in, you know, actual investments that pay actual dividends, and aren't just big boxes of plastic pieces waiting for some fool to fork over 2 x MSRP. I agree - this set hasn't done well for investors because of the market. If I were a buyer, I'd buy it from Lego or anywhere else for RRP, before turning to a reseller. Even when it was out of stock, it was only temporarily out of stock, with a date on it. For investors, this set will do just for. For QFLL'ers, who flipped when it went OOS, I'm sure they did okay. Average price over the last year is $236. That's about what I would expect for a set that is still in production, that has no discount available to it. Stay or go - it doesn't really matter. But let's be realistic about expectations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 trek quick flips and trek does mth and lth these are in my mth to lth and I think they will do fine lowest on amazon is up to $268.98 not a barn burner but give it time credits will do fine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenb99 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, trekgate502 said: trek quick flips and trek does mth and lth these are in my mth to lth and I think they will do fine lowest on amazon is up to $268.98 not a barn burner but give it time credits will do fine lowest on ebay was $289 last November 2014... when a friend of mine said this one was retiring... seemed like a smart nice guy to trust but then again sometimes I don't pick the right friends! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, ravenb99 said: lowest on ebay was $289 last November 2014... when a friend of mine said this one was retiring... seemed like a smart nice guy to trust but then again sometimes I don't pick the right friends! speechless sir all I can tell you is my sources indicated retirement and well we know what happened so I have to tell myself what I posted above in order to feel better about myself I do this daily lol if there is no new ucs x wing for rogue one may have a shot at it doing something otherwise I figure I am earning what I could get in passbook savings so hey there is that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenb99 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, trekgate502 said: speechless sir all I can tell you is my sources indicated retirement and well we know what happened so I have to tell myself what I posted above in order to feel better about myself I do this daily lol if there is no new ucs x wing for rogue one may have a shot at it doing something otherwise I figure I am earning what I could get in passbook savings so hey there is that hey it was good for me, moved a bunch from a good deal and had plenty of time to rebuy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) so you would think with all the articles about the lego gold rush and people going nuts on the bubble thread and the stock market having issues and trek stuck with a stack (relative term) of red fives maybe some of the 5000 that have joined here will look scratch their head and turn away it is something when even trek the eternal optimist starts to say not every lego set is a home run Edited January 8, 2016 by trekgate502 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migration Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 10 minutes ago, trekgate502 said: speechless sir all I can tell you is my sources indicated retirement and well we know what happened so I have to tell myself what I posted above in order to feel better about myself I do this daily lol if there is no new ucs x wing for rogue one may have a shot at it doing something otherwise I figure I am earning what I could get in passbook savings so hey there is that Passbook savings? Haven't heard that one for a while, I do believe that you've dated yourself sir! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Migration said: Passbook savings? Haven't heard that one for a while, I do believe that you've dated yourself sir! yep I remember when I was a kid and went to an actual savings and loan bank and put money in with my dad and got 5% interest big stuff at the time 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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