10240 - UCS: Red Five X-wing Starfighter

[biking_tiger]

Maybe they just Exo-Suited the Red Five.

[zskid00]

Maybe they just Exo-Suited the Red Five.

I guess they didn't learn their lesson with the Exo Suit.  Make too many and resellers quit buying.  The Exo was supposed to go away in April I thought and they even marked it with the dreaded "retiring soon" tag which probably made it languish even more just like the EEE.

[GhostDad]

Maybe they just Exo-Suited the Red Five.

Yeah.  I never got the appeal of Exo-Suit anyway.  R5 could be a great set if it were $50 less with no stickers and a Luke minifig.

[pete411]

Red 5 was an abysmal seller until fairly recently and Lego is just trying to use reseller panic and the upcoming SW frenzy to make their money back on this set. When I started buying these from my local Lego shop back in May, the seals on them were from early 2014. Due to the glut in inventory, I think this set caps out at 300-350 in the next 3-4 years. The returns on this set won't be great.

[TheGallows]

I personally love this set, and think it will do very well when it goes.

IMO its the best x wing to date, an awesome display piece.

I also don't think the lego will be making another x wing of this size for quite a while. I actually think we'd be more likely to see a anther large/ucs MF before.

Once again this is just my opinion, but i think this will be in high demand the second people cant get it easily, especially with how well it complements the new tie.

If it goes this year, I think it will do very well.

Red 5 was an abysmal seller until fairly recently and Lego is just trying to use reseller panic and the upcoming SW frenzy to make their money back on this set. When I started buying these from my local Lego shop back in May, the seals on them were from early 2014. Due to the glut in inventory, I think this set caps out at 300-350 in the next 3-4 years. The returns on this set won't be great.

[GiliusThunderhead]

Red 5 was an abysmal seller until fairly recently and Lego is just trying to use reseller panic and the upcoming SW frenzy to make their money back on this set. When I started buying these from my local Lego shop back in May, the seals on them were from early 2014. Due to the glut in inventory, I think this set caps out at 300-350 in the next 3-4 years. The returns on this set won't be great.

Even at 300 that's a 50% return on you're investment.  Ok, compared to other sets that might not look great but isnt the SW average CAGR 9% so this would be in line with that (and better then you'd get in traditional investments - but its not a sure fire thing so thats why there's a risk premium).

You could compare this one to the b-wing.  I wasn't out of the dark ages when this one was available but from what i gather this one was a shocker in terms of selling whilst available.  But look at in now.  In the UK i cant get one for less than 135% of its MRSP.  And (correct me if im wrong) but this ones supposedly the bench mark of the "bad investment of the UCS range (or is that ob-ones ship).

I think this set has everything going for it.  Even if there is a massive supply glut its one of the most iconic SW vehicles, new movies can only help to boost its popularity.  The only thing I'm worried about is how long this one remains at retail.  I know LEGO obviously has there own long term plan and they probably decided production life on this one months ago but pulling the plug on this one any time soon I'd say was ludicrous.  But then again, i dont know what else they have up their sleeves and having too many sets out at the same time for the consumer can also be detrimental for them.  Have to produce less of each set so margins of scale decrease.

My 2 cents anyway (and I do love this set @ both MRSP and probably MRSP + 50%).

[dcdfan]

People talk about Lego "making more" of this set due to the demand. Of course, that's a possibility, but if it was to follow 10225, it would leave by November. Not March or whenever Brick Pickers decided to move it to Sold out earlier this year...

[TheGallows]

Even at 300 that's a 50% return on you're investment.  Ok, compared to other sets that might not look great but isnt the SW average CAGR 9% so this would be in line with that (and better then you'd get in traditional investments - but its not a sure fire thing so thats why there's a risk premium).

You could compare this one to the b-wing.  I wasn't out of the dark ages when this one was available but from what i gather this one was a shocker in terms of selling whilst available.  But look at in now.  In the UK i cant get one for less than 135% of its MRSP.  And (correct me if im wrong) but this ones supposedly the bench mark of the "bad investment of the UCS range (or is that ob-ones ship).

I think this set has everything going for it.  Even if there is a massive supply glut its one of the most iconic SW vehicles, new movies can only help to boost its popularity.  The only thing I'm worried about is how long this one remains at retail.  I know LEGO obviously has there own long term plan and they probably decided production life on this one months ago but pulling the plug on this one any time soon I'd say was ludicrous.  But then again, i dont know what else they have up their sleeves and having too many sets out at the same time for the consumer can also be detrimental for them.  Have to produce less of each set so margins of scale decrease.

My 2 cents anyway (and I do love this set @ both MRSP and probably MRSP + 50%).

Yeah I agree with you. I actually bought a b wing for £180 at the beginning of the year with plans to build it. Now they are selling for £300ish, and i'll doubt ill break the seals.

I also think lego would be mad to pull this one, but one can hope.

This has also been massively discounted in the uk. I bought all 11 of mine @£98 so I am already happy.   I'd still be happy happy if I had bought 11 @mrsp

[cladner]

the only reason this set wasn't a big seller is because people were buying SSD and 9493.

both of those are gone. 

this set will do just fine.  

this isn't just a remake of an x-wing UCS its the UCS of  the ship that blows up the death star.

we will probably never see another UCS RED 5 X-WING.

it was 13 years between the first UCS X-wing and Red 5 releases.

we'll see an Episode VII UCS X-wing before another OT one.  so we're out to 2022 by conservative estimates.

i'm up to 20 Red5 and will buy as many as I can without having to get off my a$$.

i am starting to doubt that this will retire in 2015.

Edited August 14, 2015 by cladner

[oneknightr]

US LEGO Shop at Home back to OOS ship in 30 days. Dance baby! Dance! 

[Ronan.46]

I think your right cladner in that it will be a very long time till we see another UCS OT X-wing. However the ep VII X-Wing I will be expecting early 2018. Also I think this set will hang around well into 2016 after a wave of interest generated from the new movie. People won't care it isn't the new X-Wing as its close enough but it will be the biggest available so will sell well after the film. I have a couple of these and if I can pick up more at a good price I will.

[jaisonline]

i think we have no idea if it wasn't a big seller but if it wasn't maybe used 7191 sets  played a role?  not sure.   as 10240 investor myself, i am worries about appreciation since ROi might have a ceiling 7191 (prices).   granted, the ceiling for MISB 7191s is pretty nice

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=7191-1

 

the only reason this set wasn't a big seller is because people were buying SSD and 9493.

both of those are gone. 

this set will do just fine.  

this isn't just a remake of an x-wing UCS its the UCS of  the ship that blows up the death star.

we will probably never see another UCS RED 5 X-WING.

it was 13 years between the first UCS X-wing and Red 5 releases.

we'll see an Episode VII UCS X-wing before another OT one.  so we're out to 2022 by conservative estimates.

i'm up to 20 Red5 and will buy as many as I can without having to get off my a$$.

i am starting to doubt that this will retire in 2015.

[Val-E]

Been taking a look at eu sales and this one seems to sell more or less in the same numbers as Tie Fighter (approx 500 per month). Tie is limit 1 and is not yet available in normal retail stores whereas x is limit 5 and available everywhere.

Those figures are normal for that price point (perhaps a little disappointing for TIE being new) so you would wonder why Lego would retire 10240 unless they want that capacity for other stuff.

I´m also thinking it stays around till maybe May 16 to help tie sales (retirements don´t have to come in Autumn as ToO has proved).

Edited August 15, 2015 by valenciaeric

[chipbee]

The new trilogy x wing has a completely different colour scheme, unlike the MF, ISD snd SSD. So i think this OT x wing should do quite well once it goes EOL.

[dcdfan]

Available @ Walmart

[GiliusThunderhead]

i think we have no idea if it wasn't a big seller but if it wasn't maybe used 7191 sets  played a role?  not sure.   as 10240 investor myself, i am worries about appreciation since ROi might have a ceiling 7191 (prices).   granted, the ceiling for MISB 7191s is pretty nice

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=7191-1

 

 

Wowza!  That is pretty good.  Once 10240 goes EOL it will be the "go to" x-wing due to being significantly cheaper then 7191. I think we'll see a drop in prices on that one as the majority of people buying will only buy once they have a 10240 and because they've splashed out on 10240 there disposable income is reduced somewhat.

10240 could double and still be way off 7191 in terms of pricing.  Granted the supply of 7191 is much more limited but its held its value relatively well despite 10240 crashing the party and allowing people who were sitting on the fence to take the cheaper option.  This would (I havent invested in 10240 yet) give me confidence to put some funds here.

 

[jaisonline]

it should double at least in 2 years after retirement. Another concern I have is used 7191 prices.  Some people might opt for used 7191s instead of new 10240s if the price gets high.  While there are differences between both models, there are subtle in general (except color pallets used).  Personally, I like how 7191 looksas it resembles the models from the 1977 film's models' carbon scoring (ha) at least to my eyes)  10240 looks like a higher toy version of 9493.  

http://www.fbtb.net/2013/05/01/side-by-side-review-10240-red-five-x-wing-starfighter-and-7191-ucs-x-wing-fighter/

 

 

Wowza!  That is pretty good.  Once 10240 goes EOL it will be the "go to" x-wing due to being significantly cheaper then 7191. I think we'll see a drop in prices on that one as the majority of people buying will only buy once they have a 10240 and because they've splashed out on 10240 there disposable income is reduced somewhat.

10240 could double and still be way off 7191 in terms of pricing.  Granted the supply of 7191 is much more limited but its held its value relatively well despite 10240 crashing the party and allowing people who were sitting on the fence to take the cheaper option.  This would (I havent invested in 10240 yet) give me confidence to put some funds here.

 

 

[GhostDad]

The new trilogy x wing has a completely different colour scheme, unlike the MF, ISD snd SSD. So i think this OT x wing should do quite well once it goes EOL.

That's too bad.  SSD could really use a new color scheme.  Are there any left in the universe (by Episode VII) that haven't blown up yet?  The Executor had a military career about as successful as the Bismarck in WWII...

[GiliusThunderhead]

^^ ha ha. Pretty spot on.

[adewar]

Red-5 sold out at LEGO Shop at Home.

[jay4e]

Red-5 sold out at LEGO Shop at Home.

So...

A: somebody screwed up trying to fix the exclusive tag.

B: they forgot to add the check back soon note.

C: I should have bought that one at the lego store yesterday... 

[fossilrock]

Well, Red 5 did seem like it was dancing many times.  If it is gone, then I think it will be a good thing to have in your arsenal.  It is overstocked by resellers, but you just never know with what the new movie will do.

Personally, I will say this... there's so much stuff coming down the pipe with disney infinity, lego sets, new star wars figures, new micromachines, match box etc, that there's going to be a lot of new stuff out that it's tough to say if the old stuff will be as lucrative as we think.  I think a lot of kids are going to buy the new stuff, and skip out on the old.  But on the same token, this set is going to be good to have.  If it's gone, like I think it is, then the 2 year run it had is adequate enough from previous UCS history to showcase that it will easily double in value quite quickly.

[GiliusThunderhead]

Personally, I will say this... there's so much stuff coming down the pipe with disney infinity, lego sets, new star wars figures, new micromachines, match box etc, that there's going to be a lot of new stuff out that it's tough to say if the old stuff will be as lucrative as we think.  I think a lot of kids are going to buy the new stuff, and skip out on the old.  But on the same token, this set is going to be good to have.  If it's gone, like I think it is, then the 2 year run it had is adequate enough from previous UCS history to showcase that it will easily double in value quite quickly.

Yeah I tend to agree here but in the end I'd say that quality comes out trumps - just might take a while longer then people are used to.  But this one will be more targeted at the AFOLs who wont necessarily want or care for the "other merchandise".  Mind you its still relatively well stocked in the UK and with these sets I'd tend to say it would be gone here before being retired in the US.

[GhostDad]

Yeah I tend to agree here but in the end I'd say that quality comes out trumps - just might take a while longer then people are used to.  But this one will be more targeted at the AFOLs who wont necessarily want or care for the "other merchandise".  Mind you its still relatively well stocked in the UK and with these sets I'd tend to say it would be gone here before being retired in the US.

If I were an AFOL, I'd prefer an X-Wing plush toy to a UCS set covered in stickers.  But yeah, I think 10240 will do alright, mostly 'cause the new X-Wing is a Halloween-inspired joke.

[exciter1]

Well, Red 5 did seem like it was dancing many times.  If it is gone, then I think it will be a good thing to have in your arsenal.  It is overstocked by resellers, but you just never know with what the new movie will do.

Personally, I will say this... there's so much stuff coming down the pipe with disney infinity, lego sets, new star wars figures, new micromachines, match box etc, that there's going to be a lot of new stuff out that it's tough to say if the old stuff will be as lucrative as we think.  I think a lot of kids are going to buy the new stuff, and skip out on the old.  But on the same token, this set is going to be good to have.  If it's gone, like I think it is, then the 2 year run it had is adequate enough from previous UCS history to showcase that it will easily double in value quite quickly.

I'm not so sure it's overstocked by resellers.  Many ignored until late and it wasn't a popular investment at the beginning.  Heck, Darin hasn't even started buying yet and he'll get 50 before it's all said and done.