10240 - UCS: Red Five X-wing Starfighter

[fossilrock]

Least hoarded does not = great investment.  Check out Kingdoms Joust.  The ideal is little hoarding + great set, but for obvious reasons that's tough to pull off.  It usually takes a surprise retirement, as with TH.

Yeah, sorry trying to compare EV to KJ doesn't cut it in my book.  Star Wars is immensely popular, and while some of the grumpy old afols might not like ewoks, others do.  While everyone and their mother is stockpiling red 5, very few here even think about EV.  I personally think Ewok Village is a great set, and worthy of an investment.  I plan on having a few when the sun has set on it, and i'll hold it for a while..  Also, some sets with Ewoks do have a pretty good return on their value.  Just do the research here - Ewok Attack is at 285%, the other ewok attack is pretty much a double your money investment.  The battle of endor is ok, but you still can make money on it.  Ewok Village is a premiere set, and as more of these premiere sets get made, completists might want it. 

[Fcbarcelona101]

Yeah, sorry trying to compare EV to KJ doesn't cut it in my book.  Star Wars is immensely popular, and while some of the grumpy old afols might not like ewoks, others do.  While everyone and their mother is stockpiling red 5, very few here even think about EV.  I personally think Ewok Village is a great set, and worthy of an investment.  I plan on having a few when the sun has set on it, and i'll hold it for a while..  Also, some sets with Ewoks do have a pretty good return on their value.  Just do the research here - Ewok Attack is at 285%, the other ewok attack is pretty much a double your money investment.  The battle of endor is ok, but you still can make money on it.  Ewok Village is a premiere set, and as more of these premiere sets get made, completists might want it. 

 

I actually agree with this. Ewok Village is, I believe, the only other UCS worthy play set in the SW theme (With the DS being the 1st one, obviously).

What makes EV so appealing is that more than likely it won't stay on the shelves as long as the DS has. I would take EV over most sets currently available, including 10240. It has that collector AND play appeal that other sets do not.

 

Edited June 20, 2015 by Fcbarcelona101

[pete411]

Shhhhhh don't tell anyone else about the possible aftermarket returns on the EV. I want less of them out there when I try to sell mine. It's OT SW and an exclusive set. It has to appreciate at a decent rate after EOL. It's the law.

[GhostDad]

Shhhhhh don't tell anyone else about the possible aftermarket returns on the EV. I want less of them out there when I try to sell mine. It's OT SW and an exclusive set. It has to appreciate at a decent rate after EOL. It's the law.

I present to you UCS B-Wing and Tantive IV.  Meet the 'outlaws'...

[cladner]

wake me when we're talking about 5 again.

[biking_tiger]

So what if LEGO released a UCS Death Star trench? 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2015 by biking_tiger

[GhostDad]

So what if LEGO released a UCS Death Star trench? 

 

 

That would be really cool.  If it were to R5 scale, so insanely big, I think it would be bullish for R5.

[Grynn]

I think the history of this thread (among others) is a very interesting case study in the current Lego reselling climate, potential for a "bubble", and nature of basic economics.

Toward the end of last year we were seeing virtually no new production of this set, and most critiques were fairly harsh, with uninspiring design and overpricing among the most popular complaints. Everyone seemed to agree it was a very poor seller, with speculation about early retirement.

People had their different opinions but we all wondered:

1. Would it stick around much longer or join the then-blossoming list of "surprise" EOL exclusives?

2. Would the almost non-existent demand continue post-EOL, or would R5 become a real sleeper investment?

 

Oh my, how times have changed!

The answer to #1 is still unclear, but partially answered over half a year later. Question #2 is now growing moot, however, as the overall number of this set out there has seemingly increased quite dramatically in the same amount of time.

After R2, AA, and HE blinked out, we have had months to stew over the next exclusive to be sold out, and the CONSTANT speculation / hype has really had an effect, in my mind. Sure, some of you still don't like this set, but people are buying it like crazy anyway. No one seems to think it will be a 10227 anymore (only worth investing at a major discount, so far). WHY? Well, I can come up with several theories, as usual. 

Some people have money to spend, and there is no doubt this set takes its share these days. It would seem both Slave I and TIE Fighter UCS sets are better loved, with high variance on appreciation for Ewok Village and less, but some disagreement on Sandcrawler. So why aren't any of those threads blowing up at all?

Is the Episode VII hype highly responsible for the renewed interest in this set? Meaning end-consumers are a very high percentage of buyers?

Or are resellers over-hoarding it now simply because it is generally "expected" to retire next (along with Pet Shop and ToO) and none of us know when it will sell out? If so, isn't this bubble-blowing behavior?

Is the constant status uncertainty from SAH indicative only of the current high demand, or also of "low" supply (clever tactics) by Lego?

Better yet, were they actually planning to retire R5 prior to this summer at any point in the past, or was the plan always to make room for it to shine alongside the UCS TIE once Episode VII hype started building?

Does 7965 (MF) recent performance factor into this situation much at all, in terms of there being an "iconic trump card"? In other words, does being in the investment spotlight for a while make that much of a performance difference in today's marketplace?

 

Food for thought, especially for newer investors. I personally have enough answers to make a judgement call, and believe there are much better options out there for my money.

[cladner]

Those money grubbing price gougers over at target have jacked the price up further, now up to 296.99.  

The nerve of some people, profiting at others expense.

 

[Ed Mack]

I think the history of this thread (among others) is a very interesting case study in the current Lego reselling climate, potential for a "bubble", and nature of basic economics.

Toward the end of last year we were seeing virtually no new production of this set, and most critiques were fairly harsh, with uninspiring design and overpricing among the most popular complaints. Everyone seemed to agree it was a very poor seller, with speculation about early retirement.

People had their different opinions but we all wondered:

1. Would it stick around much longer or join the then-blossoming list of "surprise" EOL exclusives?

2. Would the almost non-existent demand continue post-EOL, or would R5 become a real sleeper investment?

 

Oh my, how times have changed!

The answer to #1 is still unclear, but partially answered over half a year later. Question #2 is now growing moot, however, as the overall number of this set out there has seemingly increased quite dramatically in the same amount of time.

After R2, AA, and HE blinked out, we have had months to stew over the next exclusive to be sold out, and the CONSTANT speculation / hype has really had an effect, in my mind. Sure, some of you still don't like this set, but people are buying it like crazy anyway. No one seems to think it will be a 10227 anymore (only worth investing at a major discount, so far). WHY? Well, I can come up with several theories, as usual. 

Some people have money to spend, and there is no doubt this set takes its share these days. It would seem both Slave I and TIE Fighter UCS sets are better loved, with high variance on appreciation for Ewok Village and less, but some disagreement on Sandcrawler. So why aren't any of those threads blowing up at all?

Is the Episode VII hype highly responsible for the renewed interest in this set? Meaning end-consumers are a very high percentage of buyers?

Or are resellers over-hoarding it now simply because it is generally "expected" to retire next (along with Pet Shop and ToO) and none of us know when it will sell out? If so, isn't this bubble-blowing behavior?

Is the constant status uncertainty from SAH indicative only of the current high demand, or also of "low" supply (clever tactics) by Lego?

Better yet, were they actually planning to retire R5 prior to this summer at any point in the past, or was the plan always to make room for it to shine alongside the UCS TIE once Episode VII hype started building?

Does 7965 (MF) recent performance factor into this situation much at all, in terms of there being an "iconic trump card"? In other words, does being in the investment spotlight for a while make that much of a performance difference in today's marketplace?

 

Food for thought, especially for newer investors. I personally have enough answers to make a judgement call, and believe there are much better options out there for my money.

Considering how heavily the Red 5 was discounted and included in free set promos, I would have to say opinions on the set have changed greatly.  I guess it's one of the few major sets possibly near EOL, so it's getting all of the attention and added life.  The Ewok Village was another set discounted when other exclusives were not, so will the added interest extend its shelf life?  Maybe.  It appears LEGO has a lot of these older exclusives on the OOS or 30-40 day list, so maybe they are trying to throw resellers off a bit.  I find it highly unlikely that LEGO is constantly out of stock on these sorts of sets unless it's on purpose.  Years ago, stock shortages were far less IMO.

Sets do retire, this we found out recently with the HH, GE, SSD, R2, AA and others, so its possible one of these major sets will disappear quickly like the Town Hall did.  The Tower Bridge is showing the signs and has gotten little attention lately.  Maybe the SOH will jump the shark.  Maybe the Palace Cinema.  Maybe the Tumbler.  Maybe none of them...

[pete411]

From my conversations with several lego store employees, this set has been an abysmal seller until recently. One of my local stores had their stock of red 5s rotting on the shelves for over a year until the recent run. Now they can't keep it in stock anymore. I think lego is finally making some profits on this set and will keep producing as we keep buying. Yes, I do believe that we are blowing our own bubble with this set, as well as the others that you mentioned.

[biking_tiger]

It's all about supply and demand. Red 5 found its demand, so the supply increased. 

Maybe I'm investing... maybe I'm just planning to build my own Rogue Squadron. 

[Ed Mack]

Also, the STAR WARS movie buzz could be feeding the Red 5's new found popularity as well.  In that case, this set can be around another year or more.  

Edited June 20, 2015 by Ed Mack

[pete411]

I think there's still money to be made on these sets. It'll just take longer and the returns won't be as much. That's going to be the norm with lego investing these days. 

Getting back lack on topic, a shipment of red 5s came in at my local shop. First one in two months. Saw one on the shelf and they've sold 11 in two days.

[Ciglione]

I think there's still money to be made on these sets. It'll just take longer and the returns won't be as much. That's going to be the norm with lego investing these days. 

Getting back lack on topic, a shipment of red 5s came in at my local shop. First one in two months. Saw one on the shelf and they've sold 11 in two days.

Makes you wonder how many of those 11 were sold to end-users. 

[Grynn]

Makes you wonder how many of those 11 were sold to end-users. 

I'm putting the over-under at 5. Without the Episode VII trailers, it would be at 2.

Ed... you threw the Tumbler in that list? Really?? Still probing a little here and there? "Paging Trekgate..." lol

[Ed Mack]

I'm putting the over-under at 5. Without the Episode VII trailers, it would be at 2.

Ed... you threw the Tumbler in that list? Really?? Still probing a little here and there? "Paging Trekgate..." lol

LOL...The Tumbler is a favorite enigma of mine.  I still can't get over the One Per Order limit on LEGO S@H, yet Target has no real maximum.  Go figure...

[Migration]

R5 showed up today 23R5

[brickinfinite]

06/12 order arrived today with 21R5 seal.

 

[Britsnap]

It's all about supply and demand. Red 5 found its demand, so the supply increased. 

Maybe I'm investing... maybe I'm just planning to build my own Rogue Squadron. 

agree.

all Star Wars sets have found their demand. Don't expect many to retire any time soon. Lego is going to ride the Star Wars money train as long as it is possible. Death Star, EV, R5 are not going anywhere for a long long time.

lego's retirement strategy has shifted in the past 18 months and a licenced set is going to be around a lot longer than In the past.

its common sense. 

[Grynn]

agree.

all Star Wars sets have found their demand. Don't expect many to retire any time soon. Lego is going to ride the Star Wars money train as long as it is possible. Death Star, EV, R5 are not going anywhere for a long long time.

lego's retirement strategy has shifted in the past 18 months and a licenced set is going to be around a lot longer than In the past.

its common sense. 

Sorry, but no. Lego does not operate on common sense (from a consumer perspective at least):

Common sense would have had TH retire after PS.

Common sense would have seen HH last through Halloween instead of petering out weeks prior.

Common sense would have seen R2-D2 still going strong through Episode VII release instead of bleeping out after 2.5 years.

Common sense would have released Elsa and Minecraft sets earlier during the peak holiday shopping season so Lego could reap the initial profits instead of astute QFLL's at the last minute.

Common sense would have avoided all the shenanigans with Tumbler and Research Institute last year.

 

All this is CHAOS, not common sense... and it is the way of things now until PROVEN otherwise.

 

By the way, common sense says large sets DO have to retire to make room for new ones.

 

[GhostDad]

agree.

all Star Wars sets have found their demand. Don't expect many to retire any time soon. Lego is going to ride the Star Wars money train as long as it is possible. Death Star, EV, R5 are not going anywhere for a long long time.

lego's retirement strategy has shifted in the past 18 months and a licenced set is going to be around a lot longer than In the past.

its common sense. 

No.  I mean, I couldn't care less about 10188.  I've become so accustomed to using my stack as a packing table, that I'd honestly be sad to see it go.  But I think R5 will be gone for good shortly, as it's next up for retirement following 10225, and I've never seen any evidence that Lego bases production run decisions on reseller activity.  Then it'll be EV's turn, and frankly I'll be happy to see both of 2013's SW exclusives ride off into the sunset without my investing in either.

@‌Grynn: I agree, mostly.  RI turned out to be a textbook bubble.  Three female minifigures in gardening outfits tending tulip bulbs would have been more appropriate from an investment standpoint.

Edited June 20, 2015 by GhostDad

[areyounormal]

I had no interest in this set or plans to get one until the UCS Tie Fighter came out.  Once I built the Tie and was surprised by how much I loved it I suddenly felt like 10240 was an essential addition to my collection - so I ordered one which arrived this afternoon.  Weird how that worked out.

[ravenb99]

 

 

By the way, common sense says large sets DO have to retire to make room for new ones.

 

If this had been posted by a certain individual an underlying message of Detectives Office retiring would of come out of it.

 

 

[pete411]

I don't think that lego needs to retire old sets in order to make room for new ones as much as some of you think. I read somewhere that it was their intention to keep sets alive at SAH only. It's easy enough to retool their factory to make a large run of a particular exclusive a couple of times a year and making them available online only. There are lots of newcomers to the hobby and resellers wondering if this is finally the year, that are eager to buy them.