newbie77 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 (edited) really submission closed? Monday 2015-02-02 1700 EST how about that ? smart $$ is not buying this set. if anyone wants for personal collection buy it but I am not seeing any phenomenal return on this for following reason: a. this set did not even clear target during buy 1 get 1 40% off sale b. did not get sold out during TRU free sets add on all those free highway pickup or the GOLD-X/Y something crap even for the en masse horde it took literally 3 days to wipe out target. unless some smart $$ and/or big player comes in; this is not going to get wiped that fast... crowd buying won't be able to wipe that inventory i.e. people buying 5 sets thats already $1000 .. how many people have that kind of disposable income to put into each and every exclusives, modulars for a whole year... 0. SSD 1. GE 2. HH 3. SC 4. TH 5. HE 6. PS 7. PC 8. R2D2 9. AA 10. ToO that's already $12,000 and now Red wing.. horde must be totally extended by now. Edited January 29, 2015 by newbie77 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toycrazedchris Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Submissions are now closed and it is fitting that toycrazedchris timed it perfectly to post at 12:00! Whew, was worried cutoff was 11:59 and I was a minute late.. : ) No more 30 min TRU chats for me!! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 In for my third and last today. I will worry about the future value of this set the day that the Horizon Express features in a Family Guy Espisode. 9493 is now turning for over 100 euros when people said not to buy it at sub 40 and one of the things capping its growth is this set. Hopefully it will shuffle off to the retirement home just before the next movie so as to benefit from movie hype plus the usual EOL micro boom and I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 really submission closed? Monday 2015-02-02 1700 EST how about that ? smart $$ is not buying this set. if anyone wants for personal collection buy it but I am not seeing any phenomenal return on this for following reason: a. this set did not even clear target during buy 1 get 1 40% off sale b. did not get sold out during TRU free sets add on all those free highway pickup or the GOLD-X/Y something crap even for the en masse horde it took literally 3 days to wipe out target. unless some smart $$ and/or big player comes in; this is not going to get wiped that fast... crowd buying won't be able to wipe that inventory i.e. people buying 5 sets thats already $1000 .. how many people have that kind of disposable income to put into each and every exclusives, modulars for a whole year... 0. SSD 1. GE 2. HH 3. SC 4. TH 5. HE 6. PS 7. PC 8. R2D2 9. AA 10. ToO that's already $12,000 and now Red wing.. horde must be totally extended by now. A lot of truth there... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sroster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 27 minutes left to post your guess then guessing will be closed. Please do not EDIT your guess later. I do have email copies of all predictions so that is what we will confirm by. If someone cheats to win a microfighter X wing, well that is just sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickLegacy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If someone cheats to win a microfighter X wing, well that is just sad. The only One with the power to win is Darin. This is the prophecy and it is true because it rhymes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 More important tan winning a Microfighter, pride is at stake. For the first time ever, someone may actually be accurate about and EOL/ OOS stock forecast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glucapg Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 really submission closed? Monday 2015-02-02 1700 EST how about that ? smart $$ is not buying this set. if anyone wants for personal collection buy it but I am not seeing any phenomenal return on this for following reason: a. this set did not even clear target during buy 1 get 1 40% off sale b. did not get sold out during TRU free sets add on all those free highway pickup or the GOLD-X/Y something crap even for the en masse horde it took literally 3 days to wipe out target. unless some smart $$ and/or big player comes in; this is not going to get wiped that fast... crowd buying won't be able to wipe that inventory i.e. people buying 5 sets thats already $1000 .. how many people have that kind of disposable income to put into each and every exclusives, modulars for a whole year... 0. SSD 1. GE 2. HH 3. SC 4. TH 5. HE 6. PS 7. PC 8. R2D2 9. AA 10. ToO that's already $12,000 and now Red wing.. horde must be totally extended by now. I have 0. SSD 2x 1. GE 6x 2. HH 3x 3. SC 4x 4. TH 7x 5. HE 3x 6. PS 2x 7. PC zero 8. R2D2 3x 9. AA 4x 10. ToO 2x 4.500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follows Closely Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 (edited) really submission closed? Monday 2015-02-02 1700 EST how about that ? smart $$ is not buying this set. if anyone wants for personal collection buy it but I am not seeing any phenomenal return on this for following reason: a. this set did not even clear target during buy 1 get 1 40% off sale b. did not get sold out during TRU free sets add on all those free highway pickup or the GOLD-X/Y something crap even for the en masse horde it took literally 3 days to wipe out target. unless some smart $$ and/or big player comes in; this is not going to get wiped that fast... crowd buying won't be able to wipe that inventory i.e. people buying 5 sets thats already $1000 .. how many people have that kind of disposable income to put into each and every exclusives, modulars for a whole year... 0. SSD 1. GE 2. HH 3. SC 4. TH 5. HE 6. PS 7. PC 8. R2D2 9. AA 10. ToO that's already $12,000 and now Red wing.. horde must be totally extended by now. Every 40th or so post has some good insight, well done newbie77. I agree with all your points, except your preface. I think all the reasons you listed are exactly why this set will do well long term. It will be no Town Hall, but I see better than average numbers compared to other UCS sets. Here is why: It will not be as horded as we expect. It is arguably the second most recognizable set in the SW universe. Movie Hype, and I am not just talking about 2015. Every other year: 2015, 2017 and 2019 and that is not counting the spinoffs in 2016, 2018 and Red 5 in 2020. Every new adult fan will have this set on their radar. The model looks nice and is a great build, it is even swoosh-able. Did I say movie hype. Star Wars VII is going to be huge! * This font is so small you will have a hard time reading it. Edited January 29, 2015 by Follows Closely 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The MF and X wing sell themselves provided people are not too greedy - it really is that simple. The main things that strangle prices are they are easy to find and often remade so anyone that misses one iteration can wait for another to come along. For the same price, I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veegs Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Every 40th or so post has some good insight, well done newbie77. I agree with all your points, except your preface. I think all the reasons you listed are exactly why this set will do well long term. It will be no Town Hall, but I see better than average numbers compared to other UCS sets. Here is why: It will not be as horded as we expect. It is arguably the second most recognizable set in the SW universe. Movie Hype, and I am not just talking about 2015. Every other year: 2015, 2017 and 2019 and that is not counting the spinoffs in 2016, 2018 and Red 5 in 2020. Every new adult fan will have this set on their radar. The model looks nice and is a great build, it is even swoosh-able. Did I say movie hype. Star Wars VII is going to be huge! * This font is so small you will have a hard time reading it. I think it is a blessing that The Horde might have overextended a little before Christmas and now have trouble finding space/capital to throw at Red 5, EEE and ToO. TRU.ca had 18 left earlier today and walmart.ca has none...so Canadians who have little stock might be playing with fire hoping it is like the AA (sold out in US for a long time while still available at MSRP up north). If S&**** moves it to sold out I expect these 18 wouldn't make it very long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joch29 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Every 40th or so post has some good insight, well done newbie77. I agree with all your points, except your preface. I think all the reasons you listed are exactly why this set will do well long term. It will be no Town Hall, but I see better than average numbers compared to other UCS sets. Here is why: It will not be as horded as we expect. It is arguably the second most recognizable set in the SW universe. Movie Hype, and I am not just talking about 2015. Every other year: 2015, 2017 and 2019 and that is not counting the spinoffs in 2016, 2018 and Red 5 in 2020. Every new adult fan will have this set on their radar. The model looks nice and is a great build, it is even swoosh-able. Did I say movie hype. Star Wars VII is going to be huge! * This font is so small you will have a hard time reading it. shhh.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
California92563 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 (edited) Damnit to all hell my x-wing is coming from groveport ohio! funny side note though it's coming fedex smart post Edited January 29, 2015 by California92563 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think it is a blessing that The Horde might have overextended a little before Christmas and now have trouble finding space/capital to throw at Red 5, EEE and ToO. TRU.ca had 18 left earlier today and walmart.ca has none...so Canadians who have little stock might be playing with fire hoping it is like the AA (sold out in US for a long time while still available at MSRP up north). If S&**** moves it to sold out I expect these 18 wouldn't make it very long. Veegs I completely agree the decimation of sets is slowing down and I think it is caused by fatigue and over extension. That being said I am not looking back at my data but last week Target went from 250 to 0 in about 3 days. Toys R Us has gone from 250 to 138 in about 36 hours. A few more hours and it will be 24 hours since it will have been 138. For Toys R Us stock unless they have a hidden stash it will play like clock work like Target did on going out. It is not a matter of if, but when. Lets just hope Lego has turned manufacturing to ramp up the Hellicarrier on top of Tumbler and other major new sets and that Red Five is in the rear view mirror. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mos_Eisley Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm late to be in the official pool, but I'm going with 11:24PST, November 5, 2016. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm late to be in the official pool, but I'm going with 11:24PST, November 5, 2016. What a rebel! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Lets just hope Lego has turned manufacturing to ramp up the Hellicarrier on top of Tumbler and other major new sets and that Red Five is in the rear view mirror. For your (everyone with R5) sakes, I hope LEGO did not see the sudden increase in demand for R5 and decided to put it back in the production queue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ISO8T0 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For your (everyone with R5) sakes, I hope LEGO did not see the sudden increase in demand for R5 and decided to put it back in the production queue. I always get a kick out of reading posts like that. While I'm confident that our small community of LEGO fans here on BP can easily take down a stock supply of 240 sets I do not think we can impact world wide production runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I always get a kick out of reading posts like that. While I'm confident that our small community of LEGO fans here on BP can easily take down a stock supply of 240 sets I do not think we can impact world wide production runs. I guess we will see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isocleas Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I always get a kick out of reading posts like that. While I'm confident that our small community of LEGO fans here on BP can easily take down a stock supply of 240 sets I do not think we can impact world wide production runs. True, but Target + Toys R Us could. Target just sold $50,000 in merchandise in a day or two and Toys R Us is about to do the same. If Lego was on the fence about retiring the set before the next movie two major retailers asking for it back might be the push they need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migration Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 True, but Target + Toys R Us could. Target just sold $50,000 in merchandise in a day or two and Toys R Us is about to do the same. If Lego was on the fence about retiring the set before the next movie two major retailers asking for it back might be the push they need. $50k in merch is inconsequential to Target. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mudcatsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Veegs I completely agree the decimation of sets is slowing down and I think it is caused by fatigue and over extension. That being said I am not looking back at my data but last week Target went from 250 to 0 in about 3 days. Toys R Us has gone from 250 to 138 in about 36 hours. A few more hours and it will be 24 hours since it will have been 138. For Toys R Us stock unless they have a hidden stash it will play like clock work like Target did on going out. It is not a matter of if, but when. Lets just hope Lego has turned manufacturing to ramp up the Hellicarrier on top of Tumbler and other major new sets and that Red Five is in the rear view mirror. While this countdown is interesting, it might be very misleading. There's no reason why more runs might not be on the way.This happens over and over and over with exclusives. I do agree the current XWing will be replaced by the new style for Ep 7 however its also fully possible that the teaser trailer is completely misleading and the Xwing, Tie, and Falcon may be a TINY part of the new movie. Heck the trailer might be their only appearance. Or they might be featured heavily but not be the subject Lego chooses to focus on. They might want to build the NEW vehicles that appear that we just havent seen yet. In that case, they might keep the old (not that old) Xwing in production through all of 2016. Just some contrarian food for thought. Also, let me say NO THANKS to the contest that has been proposed and ruined this topic. I have like 40 alerts that consist of, my guess is: xxx date thanks! Rather than actual x-wing conversation. That being said, My entry is 2/2/15 3:48 PM EST. thanks for the contest !!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That being said, My entry is 2/2/15 3:48 PM EST. thanks for the contest !!!!!!!!!!! Turn off alerts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenb99 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Turn off alerts. That was... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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