Retiring Soon / "Sold Out" Death Star 10188 Inventory Poll Topic 12/20/2015

[mudcatsfan]

Now that the Death Star is Retired in Europe, and Retiring Soon in the US, and Now Sold Out at every retailer. Everyone is wondering, how much difference there is in people's inventory compared to the poll in the MAIN death star topic.

This topic is here JUST to compare inventory numbers, which may have shifted significantly from the old poll. Between the June 2015 panic and the now infamous RETIRING SOON turning into RETIRED in Europe and RETIRING SOON in the US it's possible brickpicker inventories may have increased quite a bit. However it's also possible many brickpickers that got in at 275-320 over the years sold during the $600 prices in June of 2015. 

This is not a topic to compete with the other poll so please refrain from discussing things here. 

And remember, this is for posterity...  

Edited December 21, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[labfreak7]

Interesting data in the new poll- seems that half (including myself) have either none, or 1-2 copies of this set. I have 2 and a used one that sits on display in my kids room.

[josh_676]

Two here, could have bought a third but decided against it... For posterity this post could make me angry in five years! 

[waddamon]

29, went for another on amazon and it was gone.  If it repeats 10221, I will be elated.

[BrickLegacy]

29, went for another on amazon and it was gone.  If it repeats 10221, I will be elated.

29? Edit: never mind. Didn't realize this was the poll thread.

[Val-E]

21% are kicking themselves and another 68% are worried about the 2016 remake and whether to QF or not. The rest are living around cardboard boxes reeking of future returns and probably not worried about the remake.

[HandyHand]

21 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

21% are kicking themselves and another 68% are worried about the 2016 remake and whether to QF or not. The rest are living around cardboard boxes reeking of future returns and probably not worried about the remake.

I'm one of the 21% who do not have any 10188. And I'm not kicking myself. It's a deliberate choice fitting within my own investment strategy. With limited resources (money, storage space) you have to make choices what to invest in and what not. This set fell outside of my chosen boundaries. Even if it's double RRP in 2 years, I won't feel bad.  

(I do feel bad about not having bought more Birds sets though. )

Edited December 23, 2015 by Haay

[Val-E]

Which is why some people advise only to focus on large exclusives. You filter out a lot of the newer investors and the risk adverse, even though your buying market also gets smaller. It´s also true that seller reputation helps a lot when moving expensive sets so the newer investor will find it harder and have to compete on price.

It would be interesting to run the same poll on a set like Pet Shop when it retires to see if the % are the same. I´d hazard a guess that there would be less people with 0 sets and much more in the 5-20 set range.

However, as DS has retired, it seems better business sense to have 1 DS than 3 PS  as you can always flip the DS and get the PS....

Edited December 23, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Pseudoty]

I am glad I got rid of my 10 sub $300 buy in back in August when they hit $550-600. I did keep one for my personal collection. 

Looks like this is going to be a long ride until it hits $1000 with people like this who have 985:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002EEP3NO/ref=ox_sc_sfl_title_1?ie=UTF8&psc=1&smid=A132A19ILLL9HG

remember for some this is a full-time buisness

[BrickLegacy]

Do big players typically adjust their price on the way up? I imagine if their sales velocity accelerates they do?

[Val-E]

Yes, look at RE in Germany. The guys starting at 70 euros and sold maybe 40-50 units are now up to 100 but it´s not selling many at that price any more as Xmas has passed. They have to wait for the collector market to take an interest or lower down to 80 if they want to clear stock. They probably don´t have many left so are happy to maintain the price and only those that mised the boat and want out will bring it down.

You can also see DS sellers have moved their price points up in the last days so as not to be the cheapest.

[dcdfan]

Not all adjust their price. Some keep it down for way too long...

[fossilrock]

I plan on keeping the 2 I have for many years... so, it's a long term investment strategy for me (I see it as a minimal of 5 years).  I managed to buy one more DS about 5 days before it went OOS at Lego.com.  I rolled straight profit money that I made from selling yoda box wave sets into this, and i'm definitely feeling good about that decision, however i'd never go very deep into something like this, even if I wanted to.  But, I do think if there is one set that could pull off MF type returns eventually, this one could be it.

[BrickLegacy]

On 12/23/2015 at 7:53 AM, Pseudoty said:

I am glad I got rid of my 10 sub $300 buy in back in August when they hit $550-600. I did keep one for my personal collection. 

Looks like this is going to be a long ride until it hits $1000 with people like this who have 985:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002EEP3NO/ref=ox_sc_sfl_title_1?ie=UTF8&psc=1&smid=A132A19ILLL9HG

remember for some this is a full-time buisness

He bumped his price $100.

[exciter1]

11 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

He bumped his price $100.

http://www.hark.com/clips/lvvwtrdnmv-price-is-right-cliffhangers-yodeling-song

[Dr. Brick]

Bought my last one about a month ago and so I have 15 now. Should be enough. Eventhough a new will come out, it will be quite different. The old one was developed roughly 10 years ago by a design team 10 years ago. Plus the new movie will pull the design team into another design direction as well. May will be an interesting month, especially the 5th day

[mudcatsfan]

55% have between 0 and 2.

Even after we KNEW it was retiring. 

Vurry interesting.

I suspect the Indiana Jones warehouses full of these might be the stuff of sour grapes for not having bought any.

 

[Brian Briggs]

15 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

55% have between 0 and 2.

Even after we KNEW it was retiring. 

Vurry interesting.

I suspect the Indiana Jones warehouses full of these might be the stuff of sour grapes for not having bought any.

I have zero copies and I don't regret it (yet).

[mudcatsfan]

On 1/5/2016 at 10:31 PM, mudcatsfan said:

55% have between 0 and 2.

Even after we KNEW it was retiring. 

Vurry interesting.

I suspect the Indiana Jones warehouses full of these might be the stuff of sour grapes for not having bought any.

 

58% now reporting between 0 and 2.

And plenty of folks that have none that don't bother to click on this topic, nevermind vote in it.

"Nobody goes there anymore because it's always so crowded." - Yogi Berra

#UnderHoarded

Edited January 18, 2016 by mudcatsfan

[Ciglione]

I still have 3. So my stock of 10188 remains unchanged. 

Curious about the new one. Not worried. Will sell one copy when it hits 750 euro on Craig's List. So I will have my remaining two for free.

[tractorboy]

I think I entered 2 into the poll. But then I bought 2 more after it retired, soz about that. Buy in was €360.

[mudcatsfan]

Still hovering around 57% at between 0 and 1 and 2. Not much hoarding but also not much of a bump yet considering it is still only $545 USD on amazon.

That's barely above breaking even from RRP plus tax (25-35), shipping (35), and fees (60-80). 

Of course many got in at $275 ish, so we need to get through those scoundrels first. (including me on about half of them, but i'm still holding)

Edited February 2, 2016 by mudcatsfan

[Nsheppard9101]

On February 2, 2016 at 9:23 AM, mudcatsfan said:

Still hovering around 57% at between 0 and 1 and 2. Not much hoarding but also not much of a bump yet considering it is still only $545 USD on amazon.

That's barely above breaking even from RRP plus tax (25-35), shipping (35), and fees (60-80). 

Of course many got in at $275 ish, so we need to get through those scoundrels first. (including me on about half of them, but i'm still holding)

Where do people get a discount like that? I can never seem to find a site or store that gives % off "good sets"

[mudcatsfan]

23 hours ago, Nsheppard9101 said:

Where do people get a discount like that? I can never seem to find a site or store that gives % off "good sets"

Back in the day,  discounts like this were possible.  Now there's sip much competition and exclusions for lego that you won't find these deals anymore. 

Your best bet is cash back credit cards,  stacked with gift card discounts, stacked with small sale prices.  Know what a deal price is ahead of time,  and always be ready to pounce. 

[mudcatsfan]

Interesting to see that the % of respondents saying they have between 0-2 sets has climbed from 55 in January, to 57 in February and now up to 62% for a poll that started AFTER we knew the 10188 retired. 

Now that we're hearing rumors the new DS will be a carbon copy, i wonder how many DS holders have bailed based on this news. It's clear MANY members are bailing, but i wonder if some members are SAYING the sky is falling in order to thin the herd?

- "The force can have a strong effect on the weak minded" 

If we look at ebay today with LEGO 10188, there are around 276 SOLD listings in the last 3 months (May 18-Aug 17) of actual sealed DS's that went for at least $320 (trying to filter out non full set sales). That's 90 per month, but hardly a blip in the radar of the DS population. If you only look at the respondents of the post-retirement poll, there are around 210 members who have replied having around 1160 DS's. I wonder how many have moved on Amazon or Craigslist, etc? There of course is the silent population of 15000 brickfolios that might have many more DS's than accounted for here, plus all the folks not on Brickpicker.....but honestly, how are you not on brickpicker with a sealed DS in your collection?

As of now, you can get them for $520 on ebay and $550 on amazon, sealed, many sealed in their shipping cases. 

So i thought i'd sprinkle in some actual facts (not opinions) to advance the conversation in a manner that doesn't want to make me claw my own eyes out. 

Now for the more fun speculation part (based on facts):

The % of folks who actually report owning DS is much lower than people post as fact.

The folks saying everyone should bail COULD be doing so in self interest to be the last man standing

If 62% of RESPONDENTS have 2 or 1 or 0,,,,,and now everyone is bailing,,,,,,,there might be far fewer in reseller hands than is popularly believed.

If the new set description is very different or at least leaves a longing for the vintage 10188 (we DON"T KNOW THIS YET), perhaps the future won't be as bleak as some are fearing.

For those of us that are willing to go down with the ship, maybe we'll actually pull a Bud from "The Abyss".