75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[longshot]

Wonder if this is still available. Dont everyone jump at once now............

 

 

Edited August 24, 2016 by longshot

[Ed Mack]

25 minutes ago, KShine said:

 

I hear ya - I had to explain to my kids (after the recent DS events), that even though private college is no longer a viable option - Community college is really just as good.

College is all what you make of it.  You can excel in any school and do well in life.  As for the 75159, it might be effective in weeding out the dilettantes.  

[tractorboy]

29 minutes ago, longshot said:

Wonder if this is still available. Dont everyone jump at once now............

 

 

I'd never buy anything from someone with such disregard for punctuation.

[jaxman]

27 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

As for the 75159, it might be effective in weeding out the dilettantes.  

This could be the silver lining.  A reset for all of us to be sure, but I still believe there will be plenty of opportunities to succeed going forward.  It's not 1997 anymore and we can't just plunge our money into Dell or Sun Microsystems stock and watch them take off.

[emazers]

Not saying what Lego Store I seen the new Death Star 75159, as the manager said no pictures and don't post what store you seen this in. So I got at the Lego store at 10 this morning, head manager was there and first thing i asked him is whats the story on the new DS he said hold on, he went in the back and came out with one, he said they had 10 so far, he scanned it and it says $499.99 and it looks just like the leaked photos. same size Box, so he you go its coming mid September, he said thats not confirmed but he said thats most likely the exclusive along with the Holiday Train. so as I posted the other day, I sold 20 so far, $262 from B&N and Toys R US buy 2 get one free. plus the other ones are from Amazon, Etc $300-320   so selling 20 and making the most from craigslist and even Ebay did pretty good. Enough for me to spend another $1200 or so today. So am I mad Lego Screwed up yes, but in my situation I am still making money, its like me having money in the bank and taking it out and loading up on Sandcrawlers, Fairground Mixer, etc. "Now me and Ed Mack starting that the 10188 DS would be $1000-1500 and growing months ago and if Lego would have not screwed us the 10188 would have been gold. But the way I see it now I doubt if it will ever be a big money maker, so I will sell about 20 more around the Holidays if I can still make $100 and up. and just hold on to the other 20 for a while to see what happens. The Guys that really got screwed are the ones that paid retail and up $425 -$500 on these and I am pretty sure alot did.     Ed

 

[Rimmit]

1 hour ago, JRandall said:

Same, 2010-2014 was the last golden period of lego investing imo, Star Wars(SSD,AT-TE,Star Wars 3 pack etc,GE/TH/Tumbler/HH/SC/R2D2/Technic sets galore/City sets/Hobbit and LOTR, the list goes on, you could pretty much do well if you spread your money around.  You could screw up and make money(I know, I did). Those years were very good because Lego hadn't changed their approach to sales/design and Brickpicker hadn't blown up to where it is today. But the last year has not been very good at all for either appreciation of the previously mentioned retired sets past what they reached by 2015 and especially the sets available today which are being hoarded by the thousands not hundreds.  If even 50 new Bp members out of 1000 adds in a month put 10k towards sets you're looking at potentially hundreds of specific high dollar sets waiting to hit market.  One small drop-ship business catering to overseas shops could match that with just their personal purchases from the big box stores and even guys like newsealed on Ebay.  I would tell most anyone now not to invest their money in lego sets at this point in time.

I would argue that 2004-2014 seems to be the Golden Age.  From my perspective there have been several milestones for us as Lego Investors, that have caused the rise, and now extremely slow fall of Lego investing.

1.  The acquisition of the Star Wars License in 1999.  I will never forget my excitement the first time I saw a Star Wars Lego set in Walmart for the first time prior to the release of one of the biggest disappointments of my life, Episode I.  

2.  The creation of the UCS Star Wars line in 2000 with the Tie Interceptor and X-Wing.  Saw these in KB toys, and will never forget the initial awe inspiring feeling when I saw these on the end caps.  This was the start of Lego realizing that their was an AFOL market.  However, not many AFOLs were interested or took note. I remember seeing these on clearance at 50% off at times. 

3.  The creation of the ISD in 2002.  This was their first true large scale model, that truly was aimed at AFOLs.  There were other large scale sets before then, like the Statue of Liberty, but nothing that really caught peoples eye.  This is where it all started for the AFOLS.  Years later Cafe Corner, Taj Mahal, and large Creator sets followed.  But it all started with the ISD for the AFOLs, as this was massive, impressive, and accurate. 

4.  The rise of 10179.  I do not state the release, as really not much happened when it was released.  It was universally mocked from an resale standpoint (no one used the term for investment regarding Lego's then) due to the high buy-in, and large amount of space for storage.  Once this set started to command multi-thousand dollar prices is when the average joe started paying attention to Lego as an investment/resell avenue.  Before then, Lego reselling was only a limited niche market.

5.  The creation of Brickpicker.  This brought Lego investing to the forefront, and caused it to make national news, and also legitimized Lego investing/resales as a form of income.  This combined with 10179 was what truly has caused Lego investing to not be nearly as lucrative as it used to be.  The creation of an entire website and community devoted to Lego resale has only cause an increasing number of resellers. 

6.  The release of 75159.  While the release of WTS was shocking, it did will not impact the secondary market nearly as much as 75159.  With this release, the likelihood of people being willing to spend large multi thousand dollar sums of money on older sets goes down significantly.  Most people will not want to risk the loss of their investment due to a remake.  People are willing to spend large amounts of money on collectibles, typically, because they feel it will always be worth something.  With 75159, people are now weary that the $5,000 10179 they just purchased could drop $4500 over night if there was a remake.  I am already feeling antsy with the $1,000 dollar SSD I bought thinking a remake could bottom it out to $400, and that's only $600 dollars.

Lego is a unique toy, in that it commands high resale values, primarily not due to rarity, but due to displayability.  Had 75159 been a superior playset, then while 10188 would not have tanked in value like it has no, it would never have reached the heights that it could have had 75159 been a display model.  Other collectible items on the market command value because they are much more closely tied to just how RARE they are.  While some rare Lego's are worth a lot, it is not typically rarity that sells Legos.  It's the fact that they are awesome to display.  Because of this, older AND rarer Lego's will not always command higher values than newer Lego's if the newer Lego model is notably superior in build and display quality.  There will always be completionists out there, but in the case of Lego, completionists are not what drive the market.  AFOLs typically do not have to "Catch 'em All."

It is obvious that with the lengthening of retirement/partial retirement of sets, that Lego is no longer willing to leave money on the table.  They will sell a set till the market is nearly saturated, and there is a lack of consumer interest, and then retire the set then.  If there is even an inkling that there is interest in the set, they are clearly willing to reissue the set.  There will be cases of random retirements of sets that are selling well just to keep us guessing, like the Tumbler, but ultimately, if a set is selling well, there is zero reason for Lego to retire it at this point.  As resellers we are likely only exacerbating the problem somewhat by increasing sales at times on sets that could be slow sellers, as they near EOL, causing Lego to extend the life of that set.  

Edited August 24, 2016 by Rimmit

[Ed Mack]

1 hour ago, Rimmit said:

I would argue that 2004-2014 seems to be the Golden Age.  From my perspective there have been several milestones for us as Lego Investors, that have caused the rise, and now extremely slow fall of Lego investing.

1.  The acquisition of the Star Wars License in 1999.  I will never forget my excitement the first time I saw a Star Wars Lego set in Walmart for the first time prior to the release of one of the biggest disappointments of my life, Episode I.  

2.  The creation of the UCS Star Wars line in 2000 with the Tie Interceptor and X-Wing.  Saw these in KB toys, and will never forget the initial awe inspiring feeling when I saw these on the end caps.  This was the start of Lego realizing that their was an AFOL market.  However, not many AFOLs were interested or took note. I remember seeing these on clearance at 50% off at times. 

3.  The creation of the ISD in 2002.  This was their first true large scale model, that truly was aimed at AFOLs.  There were other large scale sets before then, like the Statue of Liberty, but nothing that really caught peoples eye.  This is where it all started for the AFOLS.  Years later Cafe Corner, Taj Mahal, and large Creator sets followed.  But it all started with the ISD for the AFOLs, as this was massive, impressive, and accurate. 

4.  The rise of 10179.  I do not state the release, as really not much happened when it was released.  It was universally mocked from an resale standpoint (no one used the term for investment regarding Lego's then) due to the high buy-in, and large amount of space for storage.  Once this set started to command multi-thousand dollar prices is when the average joe started paying attention to Lego as an investment/resell avenue.  Before then, Lego reselling was only a limited niche market.

5.  The creation of Brickpicker.  This brought Lego investing to the forefront, and caused it to make national news, and also legitimized Lego investing/resales as a form of income.  This combined with 10179 was what truly has caused Lego investing to not be nearly as lucrative as it used to be.  The creation of an entire website and community devoted to Lego resale has only cause an increasing number of resellers. 

6.  The release of 75159.  While the release of WTS was shocking, it did will not impact the secondary market nearly as much as 75159.  With this release, the likelihood of people being willing to spend large multi thousand dollar sums of money on older sets goes down significantly.  Most people will not want to risk the loss of their investment due to a remake.  People are willing to spend large amounts of money on collectibles, typically, because they feel it will always be worth something.  With 75159, people are now weary that the $5,000 10179 they just purchased could drop $4500 over night if there was a remake.  I am already feeling antsy with the $1,000 dollar SSD I bought thinking a remake could bottom it out to $400, and that's only $600 dollars.

Lego is a unique toy, in that it commands high resale values, primarily not due to rarity, but due to displayability.  Had 75159 been a superior playset, then while 10188 would not have tanked in value like it has no, it would never have reached the heights that it could have had 75159 been a display model.  Other collectible items on the market command value because they are much more closely tied to just how RARE they are.  While some rare Lego's are worth a lot, it is not typically rarity that sells Legos.  It's the fact that they are awesome to display.  Because of this, older AND rarer Lego's will not always command higher values than newer Lego's if the newer Lego model is notably superior in build and display quality.  There will always be completionists out there, but in the case of Lego, completionists are not what drive the market.  AFOLs typically do not have to "Catch 'em All."

It is obvious that with the lengthening of retirement/partial retirement of sets, that Lego is no longer willing to leave money on the table.  They will sell a set till the market is nearly saturated, and there is a lack of consumer interest, and then retire the set then.  If there is even an inkling that there is interest in the set, they are clearly willing to reissue the set.  There will be cases of random retirements of sets that are selling well just to keep us guessing, like the Tumbler, but ultimately, if a set is selling well, there is zero reason for Lego to retire it at this point.  As resellers we are likely only exacerbating the problem somewhat by increasing sales at times on sets that could be slow sellers, as they near EOL, causing Lego to extend the life of that set.  

LEGO adapts quickly now.  It sells...it stays...it doesn't sell...it gets retired.  That's why there is still the Tower Bridge and Pet Shop floating around.

[scuttfarkas]

10 hours ago, dcdfan said:

They didn't make another one.

Different piece counts and a different number.  Sounds like another one to me. 

[dcdfan]

2 minutes ago, scuttfarkas said:

Sounds like another one to me. 

[scuttfarkas]

2 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

I don't know if it's special, but it's another Death Star. HTH.

[dcdfan]

14 minutes ago, scuttfarkas said:

I don't know if it's special, but it's another Death Star. HTH.

I truly wish it was another Death Star but it's not. It's the same Death Star. More pieces, more money, same exact thing. I don't wanna ruin the surprise for you.

Edited August 24, 2016 by dcdfan

[mezzaluna]

14 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

Now this is just a doomsday countdown!

[TheOrcKing]

2 hours ago, Knightwing01 said:

Now this is just a doomsday countdown!

[LegoWalker4]

From the Small Consolation Department:

Disney does not always do everything right.  The company has chosen to end its Disney Infinity video game line by March 2017.  They failed to meet the demand for 2.0 figures, and subsequently overproduced the 3.0 figures, resulting in a loss for the company.  In related news, Target has 3.0 figures for 30% off.

[JDLego324]

Nothing for 13 hours?  I guess we have hit the last stage of grief:  acceptance.

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, JDLego324 said:

Nothing for 13 hours?  I guess we have hit the last stage of grief:  acceptance.

[Darth_Raichu]

14 hours ago, LegoWalker4 said:

From the Small Consolation Department:

Disney does not always do everything right.  The company has chosen to end its Disney Infinity video game line by March 2017.  They failed to meet the demand for 2.0 figures, and subsequently overproduced the 3.0 figures, resulting in a loss for the company.  In related news, Target has 3.0 figures for 30% off.

 

I was seeing it as wise cost cutting measures?  Not doing it right would have been continuing money losing figure line to version 4, 5, 6, etc

[bigreen]

22 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

LEGO adapts quickly now.  It sells...it stays...it doesn't sell...it gets retired.  That's why there is still the Tower Bridge and Pet Shop floating around.

Question: then because Lego retired 10188 because it no longer sells? then why instantly release 75159 almost exactly the same?

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, bigreen said:

Question: then because Lego retired 10188 because it no longer sells? then why instantly release 75159 almost exactly the same?

100 USD more is the reason.

[Phil B]

20 minutes ago, bigreen said:

Question: then because Lego retired 10188 because it no longer sells? then why instantly release 75159 almost exactly the same?

10188 never really retired. It got "refreshed" but in such a way that:

a ) people couldn't return 10188s back to the store to get a refund when 75159 comes out (>6 months)

b ) minifigs are updated to 2016 standards (vs 2008)

c ) we get access to a special Rogue One key plot feature: the cheese slope.

d) the Disney logo can feature on the box

e) as a direct result of c&d): the price can be jacked up by $100.

[c_rpg]

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

c ) we get access to a special Rogue One key plot feature: the cheese slope.

Spoilers!

[Darth_Raichu]

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

10188 never really retired. It got "refreshed" but in such a way that:

a ) people couldn't return 10188s back to the store to get a refund when 75159 comes out (>6 months)

LEGO finally figured out a way to get back at people who exploit their return policy 

[longshot]

The local B&M store near me received one to build and they gave me a quick preview. It is virtually identical to 10188. It has 200 or so more pieces which they hit ya up an extra $100 for. No thanx............ According to the builder most of those pieces go into making it more structurally stable.

[Deanfjr]

so now that we are done being distracted by the SC.....

 

[Bold-Arrow]

9 minutes ago, Deanfjr said:

so now that we are done being distracted by the SC.....

 

well someone just accused ED of being a Lego double agent over there ... damn shipment of corn is late.