75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[Legojona]

21 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

I don't mean to sound like an ass but have you even been following this thread? Your analogy is stupid and please reread the past posts if not. 75159 is an exact copy(with new minifigs) of 10188. That is the problem!  The reason why 10143 is selling for 2k is because its different. One is a display set and the other is a play set. If 75159 was an exact copy of 10143 then guess what.  10143 would not be selling for 2k.

Why would anyone buy 10188 for 2x RRP($800) when the exact same, possibly better copy is out on the market for $500? That makes no sense

Take it easy, mate

Basically it is a rerelease of an older set. The older ones are usually more valuable if you take for example:

http://brickset.com/sets/10199-1 is 1.5 x http://brickset.com/sets/10249-1/Winter-Toy-Shop

http://brickset.com/sets/6289-1/Red-Beard-Runner is 2.5 x http://brickset.com/sets/6290-1/Red-Beard-Runner

Just trying to say it is likely that you will all be able to make some profit, but just not that much. 

16 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Please do not forget that after a couple of months 75159 will probably be obtainable with a discount. And even without a discount, add-in freebies and vip-points. So there is not much room for 10188 to grow above RRP. 

When it is not an exclusive that is likely indeed.

[ironbrick]

Just now, exciter1 said:

I have no idea, I didn't read any of this stuff yesterday.

No worries. I just find it ironic that I can respond to something in kind with NO emotion or insults and my post gets deleted. Ed calls me an ass for no reason and he now gets to delete everything I say. I am beyond frustrated with the amount of bias on this site.

Once again, Ed cannot claim to not make predictions when he runs a site that does exactly that. In  my response, I quoted his exact statement on his financial predictions on the Death Star from the speculative bubble thread. Amazingly, him calling me an ass remains, my well meaning and non-offense post was deleted.

Ed, do the right thing and restore my post. I haven't read anything beyond that so whatever Redcell and whoever else said I really don't care. Feel free to delete away. My post was NOT offensive at all and should not have been deleted. You specifically asked me to post what you originally said and I did just that with respectful commentary.

[Legojona]

9 minutes ago, Hennessy said:

I am sorry, but I can not agree with you. 10143 is in totally different situation in comparison to 10188.

1) Death Star II has a display value, which is important for collectors. 10188 is paly set with no display side, which makes it not interesting for collectors who dispaly their collection for added "oomph" effect.

2) 10143 was not sold in amount not even close to 10188. Lego investing was not popular in that time, there is only few people who still has these sets boxed an unopened. 10188 on the other hand is hoarded and far from rare.

Its value will be close to retail price and it will be hard to get rid of it.

That's okay

Both good points, but look at older rehashes of lego that sometimes were really close to each other.

[Manse1001]

[Ed Mack]

11 hours ago, redcell said:

You do realize that IB has been going after Ed and Ed is the one that called IB an ass?  I'm just commenting on the sheer idiocy of IB's attempt at taking down Ed.

Thanks for defending me.  People have selective memories and take things out of context.  Ironbrick is doing that in this case.  He is a smart guy who rubs people the wrong way with his pompous behavior and long winded posts.  I defended him for a time, but at some point, I realized he was just trying to be difficult.  He had more run ins with more members than any member in recent memory.  I do appreciate opposing views, but only if they are in a less combative tone.  Although he might be proven right on the LEGO secondary market, I have a more positive view of the future.

Why?  Emotion.  LEGO is not your typical investment or commodity.  Emotion plays a huge role on its success and or failure.  People love the LEGO brick and this love directly affects the primary and secondary markets.  But the marketplace is getting more complex, with counterfeits, changing LEGO policies and more investors/collectors entering the markets.  The growth of LEGO sets is similar to 5 years ago and this is fact.   It is not as strong as it was 2 years ago.  This is also fact.  

The recent 10188/75159 situation is important, but not THAT important.  It is one set, albeit an important one.  It is like the famous character in Greek Mythology, Tantalus, who could never reach the food and water at his fingertips.  The 10188 was that set, a potential home run, which would explode in growth if things went right.  They didn't.  The worst possible outcome occurred for the LEGO collector.  Let this be a lesson learned and move one.  

As for myself, I offer suggestions to people on LEGO investing.  I give them data points and info not found elsewhere  I want people to make money for investing in LEGO bricks.  While I have been more right than wrong on advice, nobody is perfect.  This set in particular was a riddle wrapped in an enigma.  It has given us quite a bit to talk about the past 5 plus years.  Most were wrong about the outcome, a few might have been right, but even that is debatable.  The theory of Occam's Razor was illustrated in this case...the simplest answer is often correct.  The 10188 Death Star will never die.  We all should have figured this out...

12 minutes ago, ironbrick said:

No worries. I just find it ironic that I can respond to something in kind with NO emotion or insults and my post gets deleted. Ed calls me an ass for no reason and he now gets to delete everything I say. I am beyond frustrated with the amount of bias on this site.

Once again, Ed cannot claim to not make predictions when he runs a site that does exactly that. In  my response, I quoted his exact statement on his financial predictions on the Death Star from the speculative bubble thread. Amazingly, him calling me an ass remains, my well meaning and non-offense post was deleted.

Ed, do the right thing and restore my post. I haven't read anything beyond that so whatever Redcell and whoever else said I really don't care. Feel free to delete away. My post was NOT offensive at all and should not have been deleted. You specifically asked me to post what you originally said and I did just that with respectful commentary.

I didn't delete your post, but I will restore it. My response to you is above.  As for name calling, I am sorry, but I call it the way I see it.  I am a counter puncher...

[KShine]

If you don't want to be called an ass, don't be an ass.

Edited August 24, 2016 by KShine

[ironbrick]

5 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Thanks for defending me.  People have selective memories and take things out of context.  Ironbrick is doing that in this case.  He is a smart guy who rubs people the wrong way with his pompous behavior and long winded posts.  I defended him for a time, but at some point, I realized he was just trying to be difficult.  He had more run ins with more members than any member in recent memory.  I do appreciate opposing views, but only if they are in a less combative tone.  Although he might be proven right on the LEGO secondary market, I have a more positive view of the future.

Why?  Emotion.  LEGO is not your typical investment or commodity.  Emotion plays a huge role on its success and or failure.  People love the LEGO brick and this love directly affects the primary and secondary markets.  But the marketplace is getting more complex, with counterfeits, changing LEGO policies and more investors/collectors entering the markets.  The growth of LEGO sets is similar to 5 years ago and this is fact.   It is not as strong as it was 2 years ago.  This is also fact.  

The recent 10188/75159 situation is important, but not THAT important.  It is one set, albeit an important one.  It is like the famous character in Greek Mythology, Tantalus, who could never reach the food and water at his fingertips.  The 10188 was that set, a potential home run, which would explode in growth if things went right.  They didn't.  The worst possible outcome occurred for the LEGO collector.  Let this be a lesson learned and move one.  

As for myself, I offer suggestions to people on LEGO investing.  I give them data points and info not found elsewhere  I want people to make money for investing in LEGO bricks.  While I have been more right than wrong on advice, nobody is perfect.  This set in particular was a riddle wrapped in an enigma.  It has given us quite a bit to talk about the past 5 plus years.  Most were wrong about the outcome, a few might have been right, but even that is debatable.  The theory of Occam's Razor was illustrated in this case...the simplest answer is often correct.  The 10188 Death Star will never die.  We all should have figured this out...

I didn't delete your post, but I will restore it. My response to you is above.

Thank you. By the way, I haven't gone after you. No offense, but before joining here I had no idea who you were. I responded in kind to your inquiries and posts. There was NO hidden agenda for attacking you or anyone.

Do you remember your first comment to me? Perhaps you have selective memory? It was insulting me for pointing out the gains of the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund...a fund that is now closed to new investors, hmm...that was you drawing first blood; not me...

Do I rub people the wrong way? Perhaps. I will concede on that one. Do you? Absolutely.

Again no hard feelings are ever meant, but where did I ever call you a name? Hmmm...

 

Edited August 24, 2016 by ironbrick

[jaisonline]

3 minutes ago, KShine said:

If you don't want to be called an ass, don't be an ass.

Amen bro. What you typed is one of life's simplest rules to live by.l regardless of age 

[Ed Mack]

1 minute ago, ironbrick said:

Thank you. By the way, I haven't gone after you. No offense, but before joining here I had no idea who you were. I responded in kind to your inquiries and posts. There was NO hidden agenda for attacking you or anyone.

Do you remember your first comment to me? Perhaps you have selective memory? It was insulting me for pointing out the gains of the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund...a fund that is now closed to new investors, hmm...that was you drawing first blood; not me...

Do I rub people the wrong way? Perhaps. I will concede on that one. Do you? Absolutely.

Again no hard feelings are ever meant, but where did I ever call you a name? Hmmm...

 

Yes...LOL...You were being a pompous ass.  Sorry.  Bragging about $100,000 comes across that way on the internet.  I was trying to do you a favor.  I know these members and how they would respond.  There are ways to tell your side of the story, but many times you look like a braggart.  You obviously are a smart person and have good information and opinions to offer, just be a little more tactful...and humble...and we can all get along.  

[ironbrick]

 

Just now, Ed Mack said:

Yes...LOL...You were being a pompous ass.  Sorry.  Bragging about $100,000 comes across that way on the internet.  I was trying to do you a favor.  I know these members and how they would respond.  There are ways to tell your side of the story, but many times you look like a braggart.  You obviously are a smart person and have good information and opinions to offer, just be a little more tactful...and humble...and we can all get along.  

Now we are getting somewhere! And on the flip side of that token don't be so sensitive regarding opposing views on the market.

There was nothing I did that was as offensive as calling someone an 'ass.' It was completely uncalled for.

 

[KShine]

2 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Yes...LOL...You were being a pompous ass.  Sorry.  Bragging about $100,000 comes across that way on the internet.  I was trying to do you a favor.  I know these members and how they would respond.  There are ways to tell your side of the story, but many times you look like a braggart.  You obviously are a smart person and have good information and opinions to offer, just be a little more tactful...and humble...and we can all get along.  

Don't encourage - Some people can't help themselves.

[Ed Mack]

Just now, ironbrick said:

Now we are getting somewhere! And on the flip side of that token don't be so sensitive regarding opposing views on the market.

There was nothing I did that was as offensive as calling someone an 'ass.' It was completely uncalled for.

 

From one ass to another, you were an ass.  I think we made progress.  

[ironbrick]

Just now, Ed Mack said:

From one ass to another, you were an ass.  I think we made progress.  

Fair enough.

[exciter1]

Back to business

[biking_tiger]

50 minutes ago, KShine said:

If you don't want to be called an ass, don't be an ass.

If this is the only lesson I teach my children, I've been a successful parent. 

[Legojona]

11 hours ago, Dark Helmet said:

Sorry its early,

To your point though.

10199 was doing well selling as high as 212 but now selling for a measly $114. As you can see the real drop happened in Oct 2015. Guess what day that was? The release of 10249. 10199 is only selling 29% over RRP of 10249 and still dropping.

 

The only way 10188 will hit 2x RRP in the foreseeable future if there is such a backlash from the release of 75159 that they retire the set in under a year.

You will then be able to hear the cries and celebrations of Ewoks from across the galaxy as the death star is destroyed again... again..again.. again.

It was exactly the doubling of 10199 that made me guess it would not go more than 2x RRP. The Toy shop dropped back to that. Not to the original price.

[biking_tiger]

12 minutes ago, Legojona said:

It was exactly the doubling of 10199 that made me guess it would not go more than 2x RRP. The Toy shop dropped back to that. Not to the original price.

There are a couple of issues, though... what is the current sell-through rate of the original Toy Shop (i.e., how fast/much is selling) and it was off the shelves longer than 10188 before a refresh came along. I don't see 10188 going anywhere special. I have one left that is for me when I retire (to build, not to sell). 

Edited August 24, 2016 by biking_tiger

[CM4Sci]

7 minutes ago, longshot said:

I spoke to a cpl lego associates at Lego last night and they confirmed that the Death Star has only been revamped a bit and the minifigures are the same, only updated a bit. I usually take what store associates have to say with a grain of salt but this particular store has always been spot on with their info.This new one will be a pass for me especially with the $500 price tag................Yikes!!!!!

Uh yeah have you seen the images?? 

[labfreak7]

Uh yeah have you seen the images?? 

No need for sarcasm. This is actual direct evidence from a Lego employee which I would believe before I came to believe the photos. It is what it is people. I have gone through the the gamut of emotions, and now I have accepted it . I will hold mine as long as I need to in order for it to be profitable.

[longshot]

14 minutes ago, CM4Sci said:

Uh yeah have you seen the images?? 

I have not but apparently they have. Like I said I take this kind of info with a grain of salt, but at least from this particular associate the info I've gotten has been pretty reliable. I dont have much skin in the 10188 game so either way it doesnt effect me financially, but I was definitely hoping for a more updated version and figures from Rogue one. Guess we will all find out soon enough.

[CM4Sci]

3 minutes ago, longshot said:

I have not but apparently they have. Like I said I take this kind of info with a grain of salt, but at least from this particular associate the info I've gotten has been pretty reliable. I dont have much skin in the 10188 game so either way it doesnt effect me financially, but I was definitely hoping for a more updated version and figures from Rogue one. Guess we will all find out soon enough.

The images have leaked, it's all true. 

[Ciglione]

 

"You've been watching these images. Haven't you....my man."

[GhostDad]

5 hours ago, Hennessy said:

I am sorry. I am not investing to Lego much money nor for long time, but it was pretty clear, that 10188 is huge money black hole.

That set was for sale for unbelievable long time and the price point is enormous. For that retail price, only enthusiasts will buy it, as it is not in common christmas/birthday present price range and those people have several years to purchase it in retail. Heck, even people who wanted that set back when it was released had enough time to finish their school, start earning money and buy their own.

Add to this the enormous hype spreading through sites like this, when people stock this set like crazy and I am really sorry, but everyone had to see that the real consumer market was already oversaturated long time ago. It really does not matter whether the 75159 is the reissue orany kind of update, everyone who really wants to build his own 10188 already has it.

Sometimes it would be really nice if people would be able to at least think a little bit before investing their money to anything, as 10188 is clear speculative bubble that it could be an example in economy literature. I expect the same BS with the Disney Castle, when people will be hoarding this expensive set like idiots.

Not sure 10188 was ever a speculative bubble.  I mean, pricewise it made it, what, 25% over MSRP?  So not much of a bubble.  Just a big disappointment.  I don't actually invest in lego sets anymore; the last 6-8 months and continued downward trend in price growth (sometimes in prices themselves, actually) for retired sets has convinced me that even in this dismal low interest rate investing environment, cash under the mattress, so to speak, beats bricks in a box (because it's easier to get your cash out from under the mattress, than to sell a dozen Death Stars and break even after fees).

The problems for lego investing, increased competition, rampant and unopposed counterfeiting, sharply higher shipping rates, and Lego's retirement and remake policies that (intended or not) have the effect of crushing reseller profits, all combine to make this a losing game going forward.  The last two years were great.  This year is shaping up to be truly lousy.  What I look forward to most in this business/hobby at this point is that with each passing day's sales I have less money remaining invested in legos.

[JRandall]

28 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

Not sure 10188 was ever a speculative bubble.  I mean, pricewise it made it, what, 25% over MSRP?  So not much of a bubble.  Just a big disappointment.  I don't actually invest in lego sets anymore; the last 6-8 months and continued downward trend in price growth (sometimes in prices themselves, actually) for retired sets has convinced me that even in this dismal low interest rate investing environment, cash under the mattress, so to speak, beats bricks in a box (because it's easier to get your cash out from under the mattress, than to sell a dozen Death Stars and break even after fees).

The problems for lego investing, increased competition, rampant and unopposed counterfeiting, sharply higher shipping rates, and Lego's retirement and remake policies that (intended or not) have the effect of crushing reseller profits, all combine to make this a losing game going forward.  The last two years were great.  This year is shaping up to be truly lousy.  What I look forward to most in this business/hobby at this point is that with each passing day's sales I have less money remaining invested in legos.

Same, 2010-2014 was the last golden period of lego investing imo, Star Wars(SSD,AT-TE,Star Wars 3 pack etc,GE/TH/Tumbler/HH/SC/R2D2/Technic sets galore/City sets/Hobbit and LOTR, the list goes on, you could pretty much do well if you spread your money around.  You could screw up and make money(I know, I did). Those years were very good because Lego hadn't changed their approach to sales/design and Brickpicker hadn't blown up to where it is today. But the last year has not been very good at all for either appreciation of the previously mentioned retired sets past what they reached by 2015 and especially the sets available today which are being hoarded by the thousands not hundreds.  If even 50 new Bp members out of 1000 adds in a month put 10k towards sets you're looking at potentially hundreds of specific high dollar sets waiting to hit market.  One small drop-ship business catering to overseas shops could match that with just their personal purchases from the big box stores and even guys like newsealed on Ebay.  I would tell most anyone now not to invest their money in lego sets at this point in time. The 10188 remake being almost exactly similar was a big middle finger to all Lego collectors and shows how much of their entire approach to quality and creativity has gone out the window. As Ghostdad said your money is better used waiting for a large market drop, an emergency,  and waiting for the election results.  Those who have sets from the last 5 years will do ok, but anyone who started buying in 2015 and later shouldn't expect much at al. If it looks like the Dem candidate will win, having some money invested in firearms/ammo by November will be a far better investment than Lego over the next several years.

Edited August 24, 2016 by JRandall

[KShine]

35 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

 

 

6 minutes ago, JRandall said:

 

I hear ya - I had to explain to my kids (after the recent DS events), that even though private college is no longer a viable option - Community college is really just as good.