75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[Ed Mack]

What I don't get is does Lego want a collectors item and the secondary market that comes wth that.  I mean they do limit 1 on some exclusives like helicarrier. They have  high priced " exclusives" and "Ultimate Collector Series". The whole set up looks like they want an exclusive collectable product.  It sure seems designed that way including the high prices on the secondary marke which imo make their products more attractive to collectors..  But than there is mixed messages here.  Death Star being the biggest but also keeping sets alive for a very long time like TB, PS, and T1. So do they want this exclusive collectable market or not?   Ironic that it is the Deathstar where talking about here

They want to sell LEGO sets. A lot of them. Keeping the secondary market strong enables them to charge extremely high prices for a box of plastic. It's a fine line of keeping the general public happy and keeping hardcore fans and collectors happy.

[Val-E]

8 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

They want to sell LEGO sets. A lot of them. Keeping the secondary market strong enables them to charge extremely high prices for a box of plastic. It's a fine line of keeping the general public happy and keeping hardcore fans and collectors happy.

Moves like the 75159 will please some fans as they see signs that Lego is sticking it to the scalpers. As you have mentioned before, it Lego wanted rid of us, they could do it in a heartbeat yet they also want their toys to be perceived as collectibles (in their own words). They also need to keep an eye on the cloners who are proving to have got a real handle on this now and who knows if one day, they will start making better quality products than Lego themselves. It´s a hard juggling act, for sure.

[Ed Mack]

Does lego investing have a future? I'm concerned with the failure to retire sets more than anything. If sets are available for 4,5,6+ years, then only to be refreshed, lego investing will not be worthwhile in the long term. 

Sure. But it won't be as easy as it was and there will be some people leaving the party. It was always about picking the right sets. Now, the once proven themes could be quicksand and sets people have ignored could be the next winners. Patience will still be rewarded, but also a keen eye for quick flips will be just as important.

As Kshine stated above, there are just too many run of the mill sets released and rereleased annually. A lot of fluff out there. It helps stop hoarding, but in a way, sets never really appreciate because something similar will be released next year. The Super Heroes and STAR WARS themes are prime examples of this. I think we all have to take the 10188 and 75159 out of the equation because it is such a unique set, with a long history, to analyze the market correctly

[marcandre]

22 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

 I think we all have to take the 10188 and 75159 out of the equation because it is such a unique set, with a long history, to analyze the market correctly

I would like to think of the Death Star as an outlier but we also had the toy shop. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen with the VW or TB. Especially if the new death star sells well. If a set sells well for years why retire it, just give it a light refresh and new box every 5 years. It will devalue everyone's collections but those sets have already been sold. It could be a good move. We might see a flood of used 10188 as some will want to update to the latest model. If that's the case why not get people to update other sets? This is wild speculation obviously but this refresh has me considering just about anything.

My biggest issue is lego 'retiring" the 10188. They should have been more transparent and announced the refresh, maybe even sell the remaining 10188 at a discount. This was obviously in the works before that tag was placed on the 10188. They knew a frenzy among investors would happen once that tag was placed and the remaining stock would sell out easily .I'm sure there were many collectors that grabbed one too thinking it was their last chance. Underhanded business tactic imho. 

Edited August 22, 2016 by marcandre

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, marcandre said:

 

My biggest issue is lego 'retiring" the 10188. They should have been more transparent and announced the refresh, maybe even sell the remaining 10188 at a discount. This was obviously in the works before that tag was placed on the 10188. They knew a frenzy among investors would happen once that tag was placed and the remaining stock would sell out easily .I'm sure there were many collectors that grabbed one too thinking it was their last chance. Underhanded business tactic imho. 

 

[Ed Mack]

I would like to think of the Death Star as an outlier but we also had the toy shop. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen with the VW or TB. Especially if the new death star sells well. If a set sells well for years why retire it, just give it a light refresh and new box every 5 years. It will devalue everyone's collections but those sets have already been sold. It could be a good move. We might see a flood of used 10188 as some will want to update to the latest model. If that's the case why not get people to update other sets? This is wild speculation obviously but this refresh has me considering just about anything.

My biggest issue is lego 'retiring" the 10188. They should have been more transparent and announced the refresh, maybe even sell the remaining 10188 at a discount. This was obviously in the works before that tag was placed on the 10188. They knew a frenzy among investors would happen once that tag was placed and the remaining stock would sell out easily .I'm sure there were many collectors that grabbed one too thinking it was their last chance. Underhanded business tactic imho. 

I don't think the 10188 situation was handled correctly. As stated many times already, the 75159 is a weak replacement for it. Lazy. Quick. Easy. That being said, all of us should have known better. How could we ever think the Death Star would die? This set is Kryptonite to LEGO investors.

[jstodda]

Trying to think of OT vehicles that haven't had the UCS treatment:

• Luke's landspeeder
• T-16 Skyhopper
• Escape pod
• Rebel cargo transport
• Twin-pod cloud car
• TIE bomber
• Nebulon B medical frigate
• Desert skiff
• Jabba's sail barge (although there's been the regular version obviously)
• A-wing
• Speeder bike
• Mon Calamari cruisers

Actually there are quite a few...

Jabbas Barge USC would be amazing... if done correctly
I wouldn't mind a Kylo ship UCS too

I wonder if even Emazers has started to sell his 10188 stock with the announcement of the nearly identical re-release with different minifigs.  I was on fleabay earlier and DS's were going for about MSRP now, down from $600.

He posted several pages back....

[dcdfan]

It's almost, as if, people just post and don't read what's been posted before they post.

[Lego Templar]

It's almost, as if, people just post and don't read what's been posted before they post.

Just tuning in???
Wondering what the past 80+ pages have been about?? Let me sum it up for you!

1. Everyone is unhappy
2. Cheese slope confirmed
3. Han on a candy looking Death Star
4. Rinse/repeat for the next 100 pages...

You're welcome! Saved you hours of reading!

[dcdfan]

Just tuning in???
Wondering what the past 80+ pages have been about?? Let me sum it up for you!

1. Everyone is unhappy
2. Cheese slope confirmed
3. Han on a candy looking Death Star
4. Rinse/repeat for the next 100 pages...

You're welcome! Saved you hours of reading!

I was trying to be nice.

[Lego Templar]

I was trying to be nice.

So am I! Saving people hours of the same thing over and over again lol..pick any page I bet the 2nd page you pick has the same theme.

[KShine]

The Downward Spiral continues.

Some deny it, some excuse it, and others go back & forth regarding it.

But the fact is that the negative trends continue either way.

[dcdfan]

[fossilrock]

I get tired of hearing people say, "I have 60 of these and you should too because you'll be making a lot of money". 

You know what's more impressive.  The guy that says "I sold 60 of these and made 3x or more from what I paid for them within a 2 year cycle". 

He who has the most stock is not as impressive as he who sold through his stock and made a good profit at it.  Those that have the highest stock levels are not that impressive.  It just means at the end, you could be the biggest fool being stuck with a lot of sets that could in the end lose you money.
 

[Darth_Raichu]

31 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

You know what's more impressive.  The guy that says "I sold 60 of these and made 3x or more from what I paid for them within a 2 year cycle". 

No way. RE is the current benchmark, 3x MSRP in 1 year or bust.   

[redcell]

8 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

No way. RE is the current benchmark, 3x MSRP in 1 year or bust.   

That's chump change.  I'm going with Gallimimus Trap...14x MSRP in 3 months or bust.

[fossilrock]

31 minutes ago, redcell said:

That's chump change.  I'm going with Gallimimus Trap...14x MSRP in 3 months or bust.

GT is definitely a winner.

But, i'd say the best bang for the buck back in 2015 was Farnsworth House.  In terms of the amount of work one has to do for acquiring, then selling, then packaging and shipping it out. You could pick that set up at B&N into late spring of last year. It's almost hit 4x in a year since it was phased out.

I guess, from last year, Raptor Escape, Gallimimus Trap, AT-AT's, General Grievous Wheel Bike, ISD's, Fallingwater, Lonely Mountain, Farnsworth House, and a few other sets were the winners.  I don't think any exclusives make a top 10 list.  All those sets could have been bought at good discounts, without magic points, coupons, etc.  I could be wrong, but I don't see any of the retired exclusives from last year performing very well right now.  The best is probably the Sea Cow.

Edited August 22, 2016 by fossilrock

[ISO8T0]

12 hours ago, jaisonline said:

Nuff said.

That's Epic! This should be on the back.

 

 

[Vinetu]

On 5/8/2015 at 5:18 PM, Vinetu said:

First, my participation to this forum exceeds far and wide the discussion on this thread, second, just2good is not my pal. I appreciate his tips and I respect his consistency and manner of communication. Concerning the "number of forum posts" elitism, it is by no means any measure of post quality. I stated at more then one instance that I am very long in the game of collecting and though I am new in investment waters, I have a very good knowledge of SW line evolution and its parameters. I would be interested in reading an opposing argument from someone of my level of SW experience in say other Lego lines...

Back to the topic, it is precisely in the pure interest of people making investment decisions that I do state, loud and clear, that 10188 can be a wonderful bulk of Light Bluish Grey a year from now hoping it would stop a NOVICE investor from splurging 400+ whatever for something that may very well go to Bricklink parts sale in mentioned period. You guys are veterans and if you lose few 100s bucks because of the poor risk analysis, you can absorb it. A newbie who decides to splash his pocket money hoping for some profit on this set may be put off the game permanently (ok, less competition, but that's not truly the intent of this forum, is it? )

As for the j2g successful predictions, forum is Eurobricks and Google is your friend...

On 5/8/2015 at 6:19 PM, KShine said:

I am pretty sure that ridiculous statements like this are the reason for any harsh responses.

On 5/8/2015 at 6:23 PM, jaisonline said:

we all have the ability to ignore comments that we strongly disagree with or  just leave our heads shaking.

 

On 7/19/2015 at 7:39 PM, Vinetu said:

Guys, don't shoot the messenger, I am watching this one from the sidelines and am seriously wishing you fantastic profits. I just raised what I believe to be legit concerns, you are at total liberty to dismiss them as worthless babbling. But, IF the sequel is similar & not to far off in the future, value can take a hit. That and the fact that hoarded quantities by this crowd far outweigh the mainstream market (well-off parents who want to please their children for Xmas). Enthusiasts market (i.e. people who wanted it, could afford it and didn't pick it up in last 7 years)? I seriously think emazers could see to them

On 7/19/2015 at 5:01 PM, Vinetu said:

I simply can't rationally foresee more than 20-25% QF profit during the 1 year window of opportunity. And the sheer size of that set and shipping costs isn't making it worth my while for that kind of profits. I know that many people here believe they are holding a new MF or SSD and are dreaming of 1000+ selling prices on it, but this is, again IMHO, just wishful thinking. If anytime that happens, I won't have a problem saying "congrats, well done for you", but then again, as everything else, it's just risk/benefit ratio...

On 5/5/2015 at 1:22 PM, KShine said:

This set is one of the most unique, not likely to be duplicated sets there is.

If/when there is a new DS it will likely be a DS similar to the 10143, or one that would depict different scenes.

Well @Ed Mack, some of us perhaps haven't known for a fact, but nevertheless had quite a strong feeling what was the potential evolution for 10188. I am really not gloating here, I would just like to point out that some of the matter-of-fact criticism towards less experienced members of the board, that very prominent members of this forum are often prone to, is sometimes misplaced. Not to mention the zealous dismissal of just2good's reputation when he first registered.

DS was always an investment powder barrel, and apart perhaps @asharerin and @fossilrock everyone here was extremely aggressive in dismissing that statement without even a shred of self-doubt. I just hope we all have learned something from this: Gut feeling and (board) experience are no substitute for a proper risk/benefit analysis...  That's coming from a guy who stocked on 10 Super Cycle Chases for that matter (ok, 50% off), I was just never so assertive in saying that was THE investment providence we've all been waiting for  

 

 

 

 

[nolanfan34]

34 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

GT is definitely a winner.

But, i'd say the best bang for the buck back in 2015 was Farnsworth House.  In terms of the amount of work one has to do for acquiring, then selling, then packaging and shipping it out. You could pick that set up at B&N into late spring of last year. It's almost hit 4x in a year since it was phased out.

I guess, from last year, Raptor Escape, Gallimimus Trap, AT-AT's, General Grievous Wheel Bike, ISD's, Fallingwater, Lonely Mountain, Farnsworth House, and a few other sets were the winners.  I don't think any exclusives make a top 10 list.  All those sets could have been bought at good discounts, without magic points, coupons, etc.  I could be wrong, but I don't see any of the retired exclusives from last year performing very well right now.  The best is probably the Sea Cow.

Ant Man! The true outlier of superhero sets at the moment. 

[Frank Brickowski]

3 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I don't think the 10188 situation was handled correctly. As stated many times already, the 75159 is a weak replacement for it. Lazy. Quick. Easy. That being said, all of us should have known better. How could we ever think the Death Star would die? This set is Kryptonite to LEGO investors.

Only in hindsight. Nobody could ever have "known" this beforehand. So no mistakes were made investing in 10188 - it was just a higher risk, but no real mistake in terms of "one could have KNOWN better".

Edited August 22, 2016 by Frank Brickowski

[biking_tiger]

I blame the Super Star Destroyer. 

10188 was no SSD, but "we" wanted it to be (Star Wars, high price point, yada, yada, yada). Guess what? SSD is the SSD because not every set can do what it has done. Rewards come with risks, and sometimes the gamble doesn't pay off. 

[jstodda]

It's almost, as if, people just post and don't read what's been posted before they post.

I can't get started posting untill I've gone back and caught up on the thread first... Lol. It's the OCD in me I guess

[KShine]

1 hour ago, Vinetu said:

Well @Ed Mack, some of us perhaps haven't known for a fact, but nevertheless had quite a strong feeling what was the potential evolution for 10188. I am really not gloating here, I would just like to point out that some of the matter-of-fact criticism towards less experienced members of the board, that very prominent members of this forum are often prone to, is sometimes misplaced. Not to mention the zealous dismissal of just2good's reputation when he first registered.

DS was always an investment powder barrel, and apart perhaps @asharerin and @fossilrock everyone here was extremely aggressive in dismissing that statement without even a shred of self-doubt. I just hope we all have learned something from this: Gut feeling and (board) experience are no substitute for a proper risk/benefit analysis...  That's coming from a guy who stocked on 10 Super Cycle Chases for that matter (ok, 50% off), I was just never so assertive in saying that was THE investment providence we've all been waiting for  

To repeat - I am pretty sure that ridiculous statements like this are the reason for any harsh responses.

FYI - My response (from 2015) was specifically related to you repeatedly stating that the 10188 would be worth nothing more than a box of bluish gray pieces (which even with what we know today, is still ridiculous). 

Edited August 22, 2016 by KShine

[jstodda]

$435 Deathstar on Boston Craigslist... btw, lego reseller market seems crazy vs the Dallas craigslist... Lol.

What's the cheapest NEW Deathstar you have seen?? Anyone under $400 yet?