75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[Migration]

I guess you must think I sit and surf the internet all day and get paid for it.  LOL.  You might sell stuff, but I also personally deal with customers...thousands a week.  I resell tens of thousands of gallons of oil annually...to tens of thousands of customers.  I know what the American consumer is willing to spend.  Money is tight.  I have been in the service and sales industry for 30 years and know that many rich people are cheap...or to be politically correct, they appreciate the value of a dollar.  Dishing out $500 for a toy is a lot for any parent.  People are looking for value today.  The 1% might not care, but the 1% will not support LEGO.  Taking away the LEGO collector/reseller from the equation will hurt.  It's not like there are hundreds of thousands of these sets being sold.  You saw the European inventory last year for many sets.  Hundreds.  A few thousand.  There are tens of thousands of the 10188 in people's Brickfolios.  

Funny how LEGO's recent success has worked hand in hand with eBay's and Amazon's growth and the success of the secondary market.  Coincidence?  Maybe, but it is my guess that resellers have made more of an impact on LEGO's sales than many think...especially the 10188 and other large exclusives.  The 10188 was easy money for years...or so people thought...over and over again.  It was a guaranteed winner, only if it retired after 3,4,5,6,7....8 years.  The set had multiple runs of renewed interest as a LEGO collectible gold mine and we were fooled each time.  Now, the 75159 has to compete against MISB 10188s for less and Lepin knockoffs.  That, plus the fact it's based on a 40 year old movie, with old building techniques and dated design.  The 75159 is a loser IMO and that is really sad.  It will hurt us all in the long term.

Not sure how selling fuel equates to the overpriced toy market fuel is a necessity, Lego is not. I have also spent the last decade in the tourist industry in a very desirable (expensive as s***) location and can say my business has increased in each of the last 5 years. Which tells me people are spending $$$. They are spending disposable income on expensive vacations and overpriced plastic. This set may be a kick in the nuts to resellers everywhere, at least the ones that stockpiled 10188 (the sure fire winner), but Lego will sell at EEE full of them. Again yes, there are a ton of 10188s stockpiled, you have a better handle on exactly how many than I do, but that hurts us moar than TLG. As a collective we continually overstate our own importance.

[asharerin]

27 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

How do you know it wasn't resellers buying those sets like hotcakes...assuming it would pay off one day?

LOL. A few went gift wrapped which is a big clue. The rest, well they did not go to Darin that is all I know

I always check on the people who buy my expensive sets on Amazon and I did not recognize any of the usual names. It is a possibility all of the rest went to budding resellers but that it is huge stretch that I cannot make with you when the simpler explanation is staring us right in the face.

[Ed Mack]

6 minutes ago, Migration said:

Not sure how selling fuel equates to the overpriced toy market fuel is a necessity, Lego is not. I have also spent the last decade in the tourist industry in a very desirable (expensive as s***) location and can say my business has increased in each of the last 5 years. Which tells me people are spending $$$. They are spending disposable income on expensive vacations and overpriced plastic. This set may be a kick in the nuts to resellers everywhere, at least the ones that stockpiled 10188 (the sure fire winner), but Lego will sell at EEE full of them. Again yes, there are a ton of 10188s stockpiled, you have a better handle on exactly how many than I do, but that hurts us moar than TLG. As a collective we continually overstate our own importance.

You are missing the point.  I personally deal with thousands of customers a week...all types...Rich, poor, white, black, fat, skinny, ugly, good-looking.  I own a very busy car wash and oil change and know what people are looking for in the way of value.  Some are wealthy and want cheap, some are poor and want the best.  I am dealing with people and one of their largest investments...their car.  Consumers react with emotion all the time.  Sure, I get it, there are people who will buy little Timmy a $500 set for his birthday.  That is what got us here in the first place.  But this set in particular is a mistake by LEGO IMO and it will show in sales.  People are smart and are tired of being taken advantage of.  This set is for suckers.  

[Migration]

You are missing the point.  I personally deal with thousands of customers a week...all types...Rich, poor, white, black, fat, skinny, ugly, good-looking.  I own a very busy car wash and oil change and know what people are looking for in the way of value.  Some are wealthy and want cheap, some are poor and want the best.  I am dealing with people and one of their largest investments...their car.  Consumers react with emotion all the time.  Sure, I get it, there are people who will buy little Timmy a $500 set for his birthday.  That is what got us here in the first place.  But this set in particular is a mistake by LEGO IMO and it will show in sales.  People are smart and are tired of being taken advantage of.  This set is for suckers.  

I get it. Seriously I do. We simply disagree on this. Lego will sell just as many of these as they did of 10188. More to the point, I don't really care that much. I don't own a single 10188 so it affects me less than someone with a storage unit full of them. Now, yes I understand this is not a good omen for the future of Lego reselling, at least not the Emazers version of it, if I was sitting on a few $100k of retired sets I would be rightly freaked out. But again, I'm not so it impacts my business model less severely.

I also deal with a large number of people every week, from a diverse socio economic, racial, national origin and size demographic. Only, I see them at their best and most relaxed, I guess, you get them the rest of the time because I have not had any problems turning their hard earned into mine.

[fuzzy_bricks]

11 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

You are missing the point.  I personally deal with thousands of customers a week...all types...Rich, poor, white, black, fat, skinny, ugly, good-looking.  I own a very busy car wash and oil change and know what people are looking for in the way of value.  Some are wealthy and want cheap, some are poor and want the best.  I am dealing with people and one of their largest investments...their car.  Consumers react with emotion all the time.  Sure, I get it, there are people who will buy little Timmy a $500 set for his birthday.  That is what got us here in the first place.  But this set in particular is a mistake by LEGO IMO and it will show in sales.  People are smart and are tired of being taken advantage of.  This set is for suckers.  

There is a new one born every minute, just like children that will someday be exposed to Lego and Star Wars.  From our perspective this set is a dud, but new Lego fans are coming about everyday that will want one, especially with all the new Star Wars material being produced.  The consumers that will be most upset are the ones that bought on the secondary market when they could have waited and got the new hotness.  The people that already got one before retirement may feel a little slighted, but they probably paid $100 less so that should take some sting off.

While there is some discussion about who bought more of this set, resellers or parents, I wouldn't buy this on a whim with my child at a Lego store.  This is Christmas gift territory and not something I would want him to know he was getting.  That's just me, but may be one reason you haven't seen many people buy one at the Lego store and just hand it over to their child, it's a big gift.

 

[jstodda]

7 minutes ago, Migration said:

I get it. Seriously I do. We simply disagree on this. Lego will sell just as many of these as they did of 10188. More to the point, I don't really care that much. I don't own a single 10188 so it affects me less than someone with a storage unit full of them. Now, yes I understand this is not a good omen for the future of Lego reselling, at least not the Emazers version of it, if I was sitting on a few $100k of retired sets I would be rightly freaked out. But again, I'm not so it impacts my business model less severely.

I also deal with a large number of people every week, from a diverse socio economic, racial, national origin and size demographic. Only, I see them at their best and most relaxed, I guess, you get them the rest of the time because I have not had any problems turning their hard earned into mine.

Here is the situation the way I see it:

Scenario A:  Someone emotionally decides to buy a Lego Deathstar and starts looking. When available, they would go to their retailer of choice (also emotionally driven) to get it at TRU, Target, Lego, etc...) Lego gets a sale. and now (Disney makes a royalty)

Scenario B:  An investor decides to purchase a Lego Deathstar for resale. He goes to HIS retailer of choice (amazon, B&N, TRU, etc).. Lego gets a sale and now (Disney makes a royalty)

NOW. Here is where it gets hypothetical

Under Scenario A. If that person was emotionally driven to make this purchase and did NOT find it available via the usual processes, they look to other options (ebay, craigslist, bricklink, etc). This is where Lego already profited (see Scenario B ) and now the investor does too. We all like this scenario and depend on scarcity to drive the public our way.

If someone never HAS to go to other methods, because they can just pick it off a shelf somewhere, then lego STILL gets the win and the investor middle man is out (hence the VAST amount of saltiness on this site currently).

Either way. If someone wants a deathstar they are going to get it, regardless of WHO sells it too them.The big question Ed stated is WILL the population fill the lack of Scenario B purchases of this new 75159 set (ie will the public go to retailers for this set in the same number that re sellers/investors have for 10188). Jury is out.....

Also.. what will the emotional pull be during Star Wars frenzy (Rouge one) at the height of Holiday (Christmas). Look how much Star Wars CRAP is on the shelves due to TFA and the renewal of that theme. If someone can fulfill the craving with a $140 hasbro play set, then why shell out $500 for legos? There are WAY more Star Wars options now than this time last year.... who knows what will happen.

[Will 4]

20 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

You are missing the point.  I personally deal with thousands of customers a week...all types...Rich, poor, white, black, fat, skinny, ugly, good-looking.  I own a very busy car wash and oil change and know what people are looking for in the way of value.  Some are wealthy and want cheap, some are poor and want the best.  I am dealing with people and one of their largest investments...their car.  Consumers react with emotion all the time.  Sure, I get it, there are people who will buy little Timmy a $500 set for his birthday.  That is what got us here in the first place.  But this set in particular is a mistake by LEGO IMO and it will show in sales.  People are smart and are tired of being taken advantage of.  This set is for suckers.  

Ed to be fair I think he has a point how many people have recently got back into Star wars with the new movies now most families these days look for shared activities such a building a Lego set together. This will be sold in Disney stores as well as Lego's own store increasing availability and demand as the Disney forum revealed most people there spend the amount equivalent to a car.

Lets talk China the Star wars films came out about a year or 2 ago meaning that Chinese people would struggle to get one after the ban was lifted (they were banned because of the comparisons one could make between the communist party and the empire) Now i accept we are talking only 20%-30% of the population. Now you might say oh they will go for Lepin unlikely as the Chinese middle class tend to buy more luxury goods  as status symbols and thanks to the one child policy many children are very spoiled meaning lots of death star sales so this makes sense in many ways for Lego.

[Migration]

Another aspect that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the supposed end of the ban on markdowns for exclusives. The only added cost on this set is the Disney tax, it'll still be profitable for Lego at 20% or more off, and they know for a fact that people will buy a large DS play set for $400...

[jstodda]

1 minute ago, Will 4 said:

Ed to be fair I think he has a point how many people have recently got back into Star wars with the new movies now most families these days look for shared activities such a building a Lego set together. This will be sold in Disney stores as well as Lego's own store increasing availability and demand as the Disney forum revealed most people there spend the amount equivalent to a car.

Lets talk China the Star wars films came out about a year or 2 ago meaning that Chinese people would struggle to get one after the ban was lifted (they were banned because of the comparisons one could make between the communist party and the empire) Now i accept we are talking only 20%-30% of the population. Now you might say oh they will go for Lepin unlikely as the Chinese middle class tend to buy more luxury goods  as status symbols and thanks to the one child policy many children are very spoiled meaning lots of death star sales so this makes sense in many ways for Lego.

Look how many chinese/japanese Instagrammers are building HUGE Lego sets on the regular. There are quite a few.....

[CM4Sci]

Has LEGO contacted you mods about the images yet? 

[exciter1]

Just now, CM4Sci said:

Has LEGO contacted you mods about the images yet? 

What images?

[jstodda]

3 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

What images?

These are not the droids you're looking for......

[idreamphoto]

Maybe the new set will sell well with Rouge One out but Lego is on fire now with really great exclusives, the lego movie, Star Wars is helping and dimensions is great.  They have so much good will and success like very few companies ever get. they should be on fire with original and creative sets.  They should be inspired! Batman movie coming, lego move 2... ...they are in the middle of a massive successful run.  ..and what do we get for exclusives ....ass on hoth?, 10188 remake? than maybe a remake of snowspeeder  next year all this while Star Wars is alive and kicking with tons of brand new content????????  Ouch! What the heck!  What happaned lego? Were are you going with this?  I expected more - way more - we are not even in the ballpark here. I don't think Lego is just about making an easy buck? they have impressed and inspired for a long time.

[zskid00]

6 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

What images?

Exactly!

 

Edited August 19, 2016 by zskid00

[imirish11]

Seems like the negative sentiment regarding 75159 reflects the fact that many ppl that thought they were 'investing' were just 'speculating'.

[Loghamel]

Please don't throw stones at me.   I have never built 10188.  I have one and I bought it because my kids are 6 mo, 3 and 6.  Given this is my hobby, I figure there's a good possibility that they'll end up enjoying LEGO.  I  figured if they end up loving LEGO and loving Star Wars, the DS would come up and I didn't want to spend hundreds over RRP to get one.  All that being said, I've seen a TON of reviews about how flimsy 10188 is.  A couple even said they didn't finish it because it kept falling apart when they would try to put other parts together.  I'm hoping they AT LEAST redesigned the build techniques.  That would help explain the difference in piece count that is hard to see in the finished product.

Edited August 19, 2016 by Loghamel

[Ed Mack]

26 minutes ago, Migration said:

I get it. Seriously I do. We simply disagree on this. Lego will sell just as many of these as they did of 10188. More to the point, I don't really care that much. I don't own a single 10188 so it affects me less than someone with a storage unit full of them. Now, yes I understand this is not a good omen for the future of Lego reselling, at least not the Emazers version of it, if I was sitting on a few $100k of retired sets I would be rightly freaked out. But again, I'm not so it impacts my business model less severely.

I also deal with a large number of people every week, from a diverse socio economic, racial, national origin and size demographic. Only, I see them at their best and most relaxed, I guess, you get them the rest of the time because I have not had any problems turning their hard earned into mine.

People don't cheese out on vacations.  That is a proven fact.  I just spent 4 days at the Hershey Hotel in PA.  Spent way more than I should have.  I wasted $30.00 trying to get a $2 plush for my spolied son...numerous times (like 20 plushes).  I am addicted to claw games.  LOL.  

[Will 4]

4 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

People don't cheese out on vacations.  That is a proven fact.  I just spent 4 days at the Hershey Hotel in PA.  Spent way more than I should have.  I wasted $30.00 trying to get a $2 plush for my spolied son...numerous times (like 20 plushes).  I am addicted to claw games.  LOL.  

I'm not addicted I can quit when I want I just choose not to.

[Sfcommando14]

3 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

People don't cheese out on vacations.  That is a proven fact.  I just spent 4 days at the Hershey Hotel in PA.  Spent way more than I should have.  I wasted $30.00 trying to get a $2 plush for my spolied son...numerous times (like 20 plushes).  I am addicted to claw games.  LOL.  

The rationalist in me does not allow me to play claw games...and my wife is better at them.  She is in charge of all claw-machine related child requests.  Our local pizza shop has a small game room with a dino mouth game to pick up small toys.  That is my wheelhouse   Anyone need a lot of small plastic dinos and those rubber popping things?

[gregpj]

2 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

People don't cheese out on vacations.  That is a proven fact.  I just spent 3 days at the Hershey Hotel in PA.  Spent way more than I should have.  I wasted $30.00 trying to get a $2 plush for my spolied son...numerous times (like 20 plushes).  I am addicted to claw games.  LOL.  

The biggest problem is when you get one kid the stuffy they want on the first try... expectations are so high for the next kid.

I don't think Star Wars fans cheese out on their toys/collectibles either. But at $500, it's a toy not many will want to shell out for if they have 10188. I think folks are underestimating how many Star Wars geeks already own 10188 and won't be shelling out for the new one. And yes I realize that more Star Wars fans will join every year but my kids are 9 and 6. It's going to be 10+ years before they can buy their own Death Star.

[BearCrash]

6 minutes ago, gregpj said:

I don't think Star Wars fans cheese out on their toys/collectibles either. But at $500, it's a toy not many will want to shell out for if they have 10188. I think folks are underestimating how many Star Wars geeks already own 10188 and won't be shelling out for the new one. And yes I realize that more Star Wars fans will join every year but my kids are 9 and 6. It's going to be 10+ years before they can buy their own Death Star.

Just in time for the release of set 85347 - Death Star.

[Ed Mack]

7 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

The rationalist in me does not allow me to play claw games...and my wife is better at them.  She is in charge of all claw-machine related child requests.  Our local pizza shop has a small game room with a dino mouth game to pick up small toys.  That is my wheelhouse   Anyone need a lot of small plastic dinos and those rubber popping things?

I am also big on the "Wizard of Oz."  Years ago, prior to my son being born, I took a claw machine for like 20 plushes.  I was handing them out to kids for free.  One of my finer moments.

[biking_tiger]

1 minute ago, Ed Mack said:

I am also big on the "Wizard of Oz."  Years ago, prior to my son being born, I took a claw machine for like 20 plushes.  I was handing them out to kids for free.  One of my finer moments.

Living the dream, man. Living the dream. 

[gbg108]

9 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

People don't cheese out on vacations.  That is a proven fact.  I just spent 4 days at the Hershey Hotel in PA.  Spent way more than I should have.  I wasted $30.00 trying to get a $2 plush for my spolied son...numerous times (like 20 plushes).  I am addicted to claw games.  LOL.  

Speaking of spending too much...you know what else most people don't cheese out on? Weddings. Hershey Hotel was high on my wife's list but Brandywine Manor House FTW! 

It was hard writing those checks five years ago knowing it was all going to be lost in a day. Feels a little better now looking back and pretending I just invested that money in 10188. Same diff.

[Spanky]

I just awoke from my 16 mo slumber and am absorbing all the new discussions here at BrickPicker.

Is it confirmed by reliable sources that 75159 is a recreation of 10188, or is that just speculation?

Oh what interesting times...

 

Edited August 19, 2016 by Spanky