75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[Lego Templar]

I'm holding onto a small shred of hope that the leaked pics are fake. I'm picturing a small group of punk*ss adults with passable photoshop skills laughing like crazy at the sh**storm they created. One can hope.

On one of the FB Lego pages there was pictures of them (looked like they were about to be boxed up) if that photo was photoshopped it was amazing...sad to say I think the leaks are 100% accurate.

[gbg108]

11 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

They saw 10188 was selling for $450-$550 right after retirement, so they priced 75159 $500  PER THE MARKET.

How many sets were selling per day in that price range when 10188 was retired? 20? 30? I'm honestly not sure but I'd expect LEGO would need to sell significantly more than that per day to make money of 75195. The point is that the secondary market price, which has significantly less supply than a LEGO factory, probably isn't the best indicator of the price for a set in current production.

[redcell]

18 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

FWIW, I was never convinced LEGO wanted to stop selling DS set, otherwise they would have retired 10188 4 years ago.   When Disney insisted on putting their logo on every SW set, TLG seized the opportunity to put the logo and refresh the outdated minifigs.  So they stopped production of 10188 and let enough time pass to avoid getting tons of returns.  They lined up the new box (with UCS logo to boot), got that graphic team to update the minifigs, and asked a designer 1/2 hour of his time to "update" the look a bit.

They saw 10188 was selling for $450-$550 right after retirement, so they priced 75159 $500  PER THE MARKET.

Voila, newly updated DS right in time for RO movie.  Nothing personal, just business.

The only question remains, who has been buying those 10188 for $450-$550 in the past year ?  If the end users (non-resellers) can stomach $550 for a DS set from 8 years ago, they can surely buy one with updated minifigs for $500.

Too soon?

The idea that TLG would retire 10188 and re-release it a year later under a new number with a few slight tweaks in order to raise the price $100 does make some amount of sense to me, particularly if the box size/shape changes as well to be more consistent with the cartons they are using these days.  As far as I can recall, TLG has never raised the price of a set after the price was announced with the exception of 10188 which was originally listed and pre-sold at $299. 

All of this is a big bummer for those of us who bought into 10188, but it is clear to me that the time has come to cut the cord on the Death Star and move on to other opportunities.  Oh well, you win some, you lose some.

[Fenix_2k1]

22 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

The only question remains, who has been buying those 10188 for $450-$550 in the past year ?  If the end users (non-resellers) can stomach $550 for a DS set from 8 years ago, they can surely buy one with updated minifigs for $500.

Why would they spend $500 on something they already own?

[Darth_Raichu]

1 minute ago, gbg108 said:

How many sets were selling per day in that price range when 10188 was retired? 20? 30? I'm honestly not sure but I'd expect LEGO would need to sell significantly more than that per day to make money of 75195. The point is that the secondary market price, which has significantly less supply than a LEGO factory, probably isn't the best indicator of the price for a set in current production.

The main explanation for why TLG prolonged the life of 10188 was TLG already made much more than the costs for designing 10188.  Since 95% of 75159 is 10188, how much could TLG possibly spend for the design this time????

[asharerin]

2 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Why would they spend $500 on something they already own?

I do it each and every year with my wife's and kids' iphones. I windowshop at the Lego store with my pretzel while they line up at the Apple store. God bless consumerism and excess.

[jstodda]

Maybe...... Lol

[California92563]

1 hour ago, KShine said:

Nothing is good.

Everything is bad.

I don't want to wear pants.

I'm one step ahead of you  

[Fenix_2k1]

2 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I do it each and every year with my wife's and kids' iphones. I windowshop at the Lego store with my pretzel while they line up at the Apple store. God bless consumerism and excess.

But unlike the latest model phone, there is nothing to entice. 

I'd be surprised if more than 10% of people who own and have built 10188 will see this as a worthwhile spend.

That's what I really don't understand about Lego's and Disneys logic. Why would you not make it different enough to at least tempt an existing owner?

So Legos potential market for 75159 excludes all non qf resellers and most of those who have bought and displayed a 10188 in the last 9 years. Leaving what? Brand new star wars fans and those who refused to pay for 10188.

You will have brand new star wars fans with the new films, but they'll be children, who are more interested in the new films and know Rey, Kylo Ren and Finn. And when it gets to Christmas and mom and dad say you can have the Lego Deathstar or a PS4 or an iPad. How many of those children are going to choose the Death Star?

[asharerin]

2 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

You will have brand new star wars fans with the new films, but they'll be children, who are more interested in the new films and know Rey, Kylo Ren and Finn. And when it gets to Christmas and mom and dad say you can have the Lego Deathstar or a PS4 or an iPad. How many of those children are going to choose the Death Star?

My kids will ask for all 3. PS4 from mom, Ipad from Dad, and DS from Santa. That is how we roll in the USA

Seriously I don't expect many who already have 10188 to upgrade to 75159. Most on the planet don't own 10188. True story.

[wolvergeek]

5 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I'd be surprised if more than 10% of people who own and have built 10188 will see this as a worthwhile spend.

That's what I really don't understand about Lego's and Disneys logic. Why would you not make it different enough to at least tempt an existing owner?

I own and have built 10188 (twice) and have no plans to buy 75159. Thanks for saving me $500 LEGO!

If they spent a little R&D and made it like the MOC above, I would probably have bought it.

[LegoEdison]

4 minutes ago, asharerin said:

Seriously I don't expect many who already have 10188 to upgrade to 75159. Most on the planet don't own 10188. True story.

Most on the planet don't own 10188 from the last 8 years will not pay $100 more for a 10188 v2

[Darth_Raichu]

2 minutes ago, LegoEdison said:

Most on the planet don't own 10188 from the last 8 years will not pay $100 more for a 10188 v2

Some of those people only had access to $600-$700 10188 for the past 8 years and refused to pay that much.  They might be willing to pay $500 to buy directly from the source.

At least I think that is the logic LEGO used for this remake.

[Brian Briggs]

1 hour ago, Migration said:

How do you know who anyone is buying something for? TLG doesn't care what 10188 sell for, I keep hearing "people are willing to spend x because the know down the road Lego will be worth y", that gives way to much faith in the thought process of the American consumer. I worked retail for over 20 years and was a reseller through almost all of it. People who care about the true worth of an item don't spend $50 on a $7 zhu zhu pet or a $14 tomigatchi. Those are the same parents that will fork over $500 for 10188 part deux and not care what it's worth 5 years down the road. I sell a metric ton of bulk each year, every bulk lot I buy is evidence of a parent either not knowing or not caring about the "better than gold" argument. You know the Lego secondary market very well, but in this instance I think you are simply too close to the situation to see the clear, long term angle that Lego is following. 

Also, parents might buy the more expensive sets only for occasions like birthdays or Christmas. So they might want to hide the purchase from the kids.

[asharerin]

9 minutes ago, LegoEdison said:

Most on the planet don't own 10188 from the last 8 years will not pay $100 more for a 10188 v2

That is where we will have to agree to disagree. 10188 sold like hotcakes at $600+ for those that missed out on it at retail. Stands to reason more would move at $500 for the upgraded model? Talking new customers, not the ones who already own 10188. I am pretty sure the ones lining up to buy 10188 for $600+ did not already own it.

[Ed Mack]

31 minutes ago, Migration said:

How do you know who anyone is buying something for? TLG doesn't care what 10188 sell for, I keep hearing "people are willing to spend x because the know down the road Lego will be worth y", that gives way to much faith in the thought process of the American consumer. I worked retail for over 20 years and was a reseller through almost all of it. People who care about the true worth of an item don't spend $50 on a $7 zhu zhu pet or a $14 tomigatchi. Those are the same parents that will fork over $500 for 10188 part deux and not care what it's worth 5 years down the road. I sell a metric ton of bulk each year, every bulk lot I buy is evidence of a parent either not knowing or not caring about the "better than gold" argument. You know the Lego secondary market very well, but in this instance I think you are simply too close to the situation to see the clear, long term angle that Lego is following. 

I guess you must think I sit and surf the internet all day and get paid for it.  LOL.  You might sell stuff, but I also personally deal with customers...thousands a week.  I resell tens of thousands of gallons of oil annually...to tens of thousands of customers.  I know what the American consumer is willing to spend.  Money is tight.  I have been in the service and sales industry for 30 years and know that many rich people are cheap...or to be politically correct, they appreciate the value of a dollar.  Dishing out $500 for a toy is a lot for any parent.  People are looking for value today.  The 1% might not care, but the 1% will not support LEGO.  Taking away the LEGO collector/reseller from the equation will hurt.  It's not like there are hundreds of thousands of these sets being sold.  You saw the European inventory last year for many sets.  Hundreds.  A few thousand.  There are tens of thousands of the 10188 in people's Brickfolios.  

Funny how LEGO's recent success has worked hand in hand with eBay's and Amazon's growth and the success of the secondary market.  Coincidence?  Maybe, but it is my guess that resellers have made more of an impact on LEGO's sales than many think...especially the 10188 and other large exclusives.  The 10188 was easy money for years...or so people thought...over and over again.  It was a guaranteed winner, only if it retired after 3,4,5,6,7....8 years.  The set had multiple runs of renewed interest as a LEGO collectible gold mine and we were fooled each time.  Now, the 75159 has to compete against MISB 10188s for less and Lepin knockoffs.  That, plus the fact it's based on a 40 year old movie, with old building techniques and dated design.  The 75159 is a loser IMO and that is really sad.  It will hurt us all in the long term.

[wolvergeek]

If I was coming out of the dark ages next month and did not own 10188, I would absolutely be buying 75159 for $100 more instead of 10188. New set with updated minifigs.

I would be waiting until October for double VIP points to buy it and give it to my son for Christmas/Birthday.

We bought 10188 back in 2010 for my son's Birthday (Grandparents also chipped in). His birthday is 12/29 so he kind of gets screwed so we do a nice big birthday present for him.

[KShine]

People are right when they say this move is going to hurt LEGO.

Instead of making a gazillion dollars (as with the 10188), they will only make half a gazillion dollars (with the new one).

[Ed Mack]

13 minutes ago, asharerin said:

That is where we will have to agree to disagree. 10188 sold like hotcakes at $600+ for those that missed out on it at retail. Stands to reason more would move at $500 for the upgraded model? Talking new customers, not the ones who already own 10188. I am pretty sure the ones lining up to buy 10188 for $600+ did not already own it.

How do you know it wasn't resellers buying those sets like hotcakes...assuming it would pay off one day?

[BRIX23]

No new news really.  Stopped by Lego store.  Said they have seen it and really minor changes.  No idea on release date though.  

[Fenix_2k1]

13 minutes ago, asharerin said:

That is where we will have to agree to disagree. 10188 sold like hotcakes at $600+ for those that missed out on it at retail. Stands to reason more would move at $500 for the upgraded model? Talking new customers, not the ones who already own 10188. I am pretty sure the ones lining up to buy 10188 for $600+ did not already own it.

You're right it did sell like hotcakes.  But why?

Because people wanted it for their collection but thought they'd missed the boat, so they paid over the odds thinking that aftermarket was going to be the only way and the price was on an upward trend so best to grab it before it hits 7 or 8. The problem is that group of buyers who waited too long and paid over the odds have now fulfilled that need.

You'll have some who were still waiting and those who newly come out of the dark ages. But why would they not try and recapture the existing market of 10188 fans with something a little bit more distinct? 

[KvHulk]

Is Don West still alive?

I half expect to see him hawking 10188's late night on TV soon... Maybe he'll even throw in a Mark Mcgwire rookie card?

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, KShine said:

People are right when they say this move is going to hurt LEGO.

Instead of making a gazillion dollars (as with the 10188), they will only make half a gazillion dollars (with the new one).

Sure...oil is cheap.  Very little in the way of design or development costs on this terd.  Profitable...even if resellers stay away.  Profitable enough for another 8 years?  Don't think so.

[JDLego324]

4 hours ago, dcdfan said:

Still waiting on "bigger and better." What I saw was indistinguishable and insignificant.

Can't "like" this enough.  This is why I have held mine.  This rumor and the one about the playset that opens in the middle.

[dcdfan]

Can't "like" this enough.  This is why I have held mine.  This rumor and the one about the playset that opens in the middle.

Yeah, me either. Literally. But here's yours.