75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[KShine]

7 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Did reissues work back then?

The Legends series was a limited LEGO exclusive back then. While we don't know exact details from LEGO, it is generally viewed by collectors as a failure.

But then again, it was a different world.

Edited August 17, 2016 by KShine

[weitzel78]

As others have said I don't see it selling well at $500. Most parents would not consider buying for their kids at that price point (yes, some will but it's a small number). There are so many great large sets for $350 and under for collectors to choose from- both for sale today and retired. Many collectors already own the 10188, and will not "upgrade." Resellers will not bite, because there is no upside in a product that is widely available and will be for the foreseeable future (both in the primary and secondary markets- 10188 and 75159).

Based on this assessment I sold my only 10188 yesterday for $540 shipped. Not the return I was hoping for (as others said this would have been a $1k set in a few years without a release), but got my capital back with a small sliver of profit - and regained some shelf space.

In short, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational when the fleet of hoarded 10188s arrives.... $450 shipped by the street date of the 75159.

[Fenix_2k1]

15 minutes ago, asharerin said:

10188 flew off the shelves at $400. It maintained an insanely good sales rank at $600+. All of my online sales went to end users, not resellers. I don't see how 75159 which is the same set with much needed upgrades to the minifigs does not continue to sell like hotcakes at $500 to end users. I'd much rather stockpile 75159 than than Cindys castle for a quick flip this christmas. If you have $400 to blow on a toy for yourself or as a gift, is another $100 going to enter the equation? Alot of people are going to be thinking they just got a $100 discount on a $600 10188. It hurts the reseller wallet and maybe a bit of resller pride. The direction this company is taking is very clear. Time to quit, or adapt and continue ringing that cash register. There will even be opportunity to buy 10188 at bargain prices for a nice 2-3 year hold and double up. I think each iteration of the Death Star will become quite collectible much further down the line.

The problem i have with that theory is this.  People were paying $600 for 10188 because it had retired.

It sold to people who missed the boat and were panicking that the price was only ever going to rise. Safe in the knowledge that even at $600 the price would probably rise and they wouldn't lose out. 

75159 coming out as a rehash has just blown all that logic to pieces. It's likely to be another long shelf life set so there's no rush to buy, the price will no doubt drop at points and it's not going to hold value or appreciate for a looooooong time. That is not a good $500 proposition for most. 

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Technic race truck was just one set, Burj Khalifa another, 75105 strike 3, WTS on for 4 then we got Hoth, another Beetle and Xmas train and now this. I probably missed out a few too.Guggenheim and AA are already in for 2017

The point is that these past two years, the trend has moved towards re releases with minimal differences or variations on the same theme. It´s not just SW , it´s across the range.

So now we have to deal with TLG retreads, Lepin, too many resellers per customers, less discounts than before, the weak pound helping UK sellers - it all adds up.

 

To be fair, the new Burj is HUGE improvement over the old one.  

Although I must admit I would not have been this fair had I still had stacks of old Burj in my storage

[mudcatsfan]

Meant to post this here and not in the DS 10188 Inventory Poll topic:

Interesting to see that the % of respondents saying they have between 0-2 10188 sets has climbed from 55% in January, to 57% in February and now up to 62% for a poll that started AFTER we knew the 10188 retired. 

Now that we're hearing rumors the new DS will be a carbon copy, i wonder how many DS holders have bailed based on this news. It's clear MANY members are bailing, but i wonder if some members are SAYING the sky is falling in order to thin the herd?

- "The force can have a strong effect on the weak minded" 

If we look at ebay today with LEGO 10188, there are around 276 SOLD listings in the last 3 months (May 18-Aug 17) of actual sealed DS's that went for at least $320 (trying to filter out non full set sales). That's 90 per month, but hardly a blip in the radar of the DS population. If you only look at the respondents of the post-retirement poll, there are around 210 members who have replied having around 1160 DS's. I wonder how many have moved on Amazon or Craigslist, etc? There of course is the silent population of 15000 brickfolios that might have many more DS's than accounted for here, plus all the folks not on Brickpicker.....but honestly, how are you not on brickpicker with a sealed DS in your collection?

As of now, you can get them for $520 on ebay and $550 on amazon, sealed, many sealed in their shipping cases. 

So i thought i'd sprinkle in some actual facts (not opinions) to advance the conversation in a manner that doesn't want to make me claw my own eyes out. 

Now for the more fun speculation part (based on facts):

The % of folks who actually report owning DS is much lower than people post as fact.

The folks saying everyone should bail COULD be doing so in self interest to be the last man standing

If 62% of RESPONDENTS have 2 or 1 or 0,,,,,and now everyone is bailing,,,,,,,there might be far fewer in reseller hands than is popularly believed.

If the new set description is very different or at least leaves a longing for the vintage 10188 (we DON"T KNOW THIS YET), perhaps the future won't be as bleak as some are fearing.

For those of us that are willing to go down with the ship, maybe we'll actually pull a Bud from "The Abyss".

[Lego Templar]

As you can see I've been crunching the numbers and the data for over 48 hours (no sleep) after all this math and science I came to the conclusion!!!

That it is in fact! A waste of time to keep talking about "what ifs" and just wait to see the images...and go from there.

Certainly this is the correct answer if you look at he charts......

[jbacunn]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Technic race truck was just one set, Burj Khalifa another, 75105 strike 3, WTS on for 4 then we got Hoth, another Beetle and Xmas train and now this. I probably missed out a few too.Guggenheim and AA are already in for 2017

The point is that these past two years, the trend has moved towards re releases with minimal differences or variations on the same theme. It´s not just SW, it´s across the range.

So now we have to deal with TLG retreads, Lepin, too many resellers per customers, less discounts than before, the weak pound helping UK sellers - it all adds up.

 

Let's take your examples of remakes one by one just for fun. 

Technic Race Truck Original 8041 (2010). Remake 42041 (2015). This is a true remake in every sense. Can't argue with you on this one. 

Burj Khalifa  Original 21008 (2011). Remake 21031 (2016). For me this is a remake in name only. This is a complete redesign and a vast improvement on the original. 

Millennium Falcon There have been several MF. The last one was 7965 (2011). Remake 75105 (2015). I haven't built the new one so I don't have any personal experience but it does appear to be a very close remake except for the radar dish of course.  I give Lego a pass on this one. I mean, a new movie was coming out with the Falcon in it. What were they supposed to do? They would have been criticized for not releasing a new one. 

Winter Toy Shop Original 10199 (2009). Remake 10249 (2015). Again, I haven't built the original but it does appear to be a very close remake. For me, this is the most egregious example and sign of laziness for a theme that is highly anticipated each year although I will point out that it was 6 years between the two though.

Assault on Hoth Original 7666 (2007). Remake 75098 (2016). I assume 7666 is what you were referring to when you said this was a remake or perhaps a combination of some of the smaller Hoth related sets that have been released over the past couple of years. Either way, I agree with you. This was a lazy move by Lego.

VW Beetle Original 10187 (2008). Remake 10252 (2016). Again, this is a remake in name only. They are completely different and there is eight years between the two so not a problem for me. 

Christmas Train Original 10173 (2006). Remake 10254 (2016). From the pictures we have seen there are significant differences between the two so is it a remake? Maybe. I think the new one looks significantly better and it is 10 years between the two so I don't really think we can complain about this one. 

In closing I think that only Technic Race Truck, Winter Toy Shop, and Assault on Hoth are really egregious remakes that seemed unnecssary. Now there are plenty of remakes in the Star Wars and City themes and supposedly more to come next year that seem uncessary to me like Desert Skiff although I will reserve judgement until I see pics of the new one. 

 

Edited August 17, 2016 by jbacunn

[tractorboy]

I also think some of the worries about remakes are over exaggerated. Most of those aren't even remakes, and they're a small fraction of all medium to large sets Lego produces on an annual basis. It's ridiculous to say that there is a trend towards remakes across the board.

[jstodda]

Some of the tension I think comes from fatigue. I know when I first started "collecting" I got that high from building again as an adult. I am a huge Star Wars fan and have been since a kid. Initially it was the basics that were "new" at the time (x-wing, ISD, AT-AT, etc). Then I went back for the "older stuff" (Death Star, Skiff, Republic Gunship, Assault on Endor, old Hoth sets, etc).. It was less detailed (some of it) and the figs were noticeably different than the newer sets, but I remembered those scenes and had a blast adding to the collection. Once the foundation was set I looked to the iconic sets (Sandcrawler, UCS Falcon, SSD, Tantive, Death Star, etc). At that time I was "hooked" and spending more money wasn't as much of an issue. These sets took days to build and really stand out in the collection as "worth it" to me.

About that time Force Awakens came out and with it the new falcon and several battle sets and ships. Of course I picked them to add to the collection but the emotional tie wasn't there at all like it was before. I am now personally far more critical of sets than I was before. I see them as a more "experienced" collector (by no means on the level of some here) vs appreciating how the set made me feel and remember.

That being said, there are always going to be new Star Wars fans, there will always be new LEGO fans. That emotional connection is what drives behaviors (that's why people have $5000 rims on a $1000 car. It makes them FEEL a certain way and they validate the expense emotionally).

I personally don't mind remakes as they still have that emotional tie (although inside I am disappointed the emotion isn't as strong as it was the first time I saw a SSD or UCS Falcon and HAD to have it).

I think many of us have been doing this awhile and that initial high of investing or collection or whatever your reason is, doesn't match what it once was (the payoff isn't as great).

If the extreme measure for me is the first time I saw a UCS falcon in person and knew that would be the flagship of my collection, I don't know that anything is ever going to match that same feeling... especially not another Death Star regardless of what or how its made...... Who knows if this will be the UCS falcon of THIS age or not, but $500 will take a lot of emotion to overcome.

[wolvergeek]

2 hours ago, Phil B said:

What if the cheese slope represents a major plot point in Rogue One? Could be the most expensivepopular cheese slope ever ......

I'm only buying it if it has the new cheese slope. So I hope the leaked info is right!

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, jbacunn said:

Let's take your examples of remakes one by one just for fun. 

Technic Race Truck Original 8041 (2010). Remake 42041 (2015). This is a true remake in every sense. Can't argue with you on this one. 

Burj Khalifa  Original 21008 (2011). Remake 21031 (2016). For me this is a remake in name only. This is a complete redesign and a vast improvement on the original. 

Millennium Falcon There have been several MF. The last one was 7965 (2011). Remake 75105 (2015). I haven't built the new one so I don't have any personal experience but it does appear to be a very close remake except for the radar dish of course.  I give Lego a pass on this one. I mean, a new movie was coming out with the Falcon in it. What were they supposed to do? They would have been criticized for not releasing a new one. 

Winter Toy Shop Original 10199 (2009). Remake 10249 (2015). Again, I haven't built the original but it does appear to be a very close remake. For me, this is the most egregious example and sign of laziness for a theme that is highly anticipated each year although I will point out that it was 6 years between the two though.

Assault on Hoth Original 7666 (2007). Remake 75098 (2016). I assume 7666 is what you were referring to when you said this was a remake or perhaps a combination of some of the smaller Hoth related sets that have been released over the past couple of years. Either way, I agree with you. This was a lazy move by Lego.

VW Beetle Original 10187 (2008). Remake 10252 (2016). Again, this is a remake in name only. They are completely different and there is eight years between the two so not a problem for me. 

Christmas Train Original 10173 (2006). Remake 10254 (2016). From the pictures we have seen there are significant differences between the two so is it a remake? Maybe. I think the new one looks significantly better and it is 10 years between the two so I don't really think we can complain about this one. 

In closing I think that only Technic Race Truck, Winter Toy Shop, and Assault on Hoth are really egregious remakes that seemed unnecssary. Now there are plenty of remakes in the Star Wars and City themes and supposedly more to come next year that seem uncessary to me like Desert Skiff although I will reserve judgement until I see pics of the new one. 

 

I agree that there are different types of retread - the lazy spot the difference one and the major renovation. However, there are many more cars, buildings and other ideas that could have been seen to first before revisiting the classics.

As an investor, both are bad news - not because they impact on the price of a set that retired 8 years ago, as the quantities around are so low that demand is greater than supply. What it does do, along with Lepin, is cast doubts in the minds of a sector of the buying public(f I am patient, the set I want will come round again for less). All these little things that alone don´t count for much, are a serious enemy for the investor when combined. I´ve been preparing for a while for this but it looks like I need to go quicker. YMMV.

 

Edited August 17, 2016 by Val-E

[biking_tiger]

Anyone holding sets for five years or more should know the risk he/she is taking. It's not in my business model. Knowing one's market is important. 

[Val-E]

48 minutes ago, tractorboy said:

I also think some of the worries about remakes are over exaggerated. Most of those aren't even remakes, and they're a small fraction of all medium to large sets Lego produces on an annual basis. It's ridiculous to say that there is a trend towards remakes across the board.

It´s not ridiculous - when they start a new line like Friends, Nexo or Ninjago they have endless scope. However, after a few years, they start repeating the same stuff as they did before e.g. Destiny´s Bounty or the line fails or the license ends and they pull it.

I can´t think of any established current line (more than 4 years on the market with new sets every year) that has not resorted to remakes. Friends, Creator, Architecture, City, Technic, SW, Ninjago are have all done it.

 

 

 

[fossilrock]

2 hours ago, weitzel78 said:

As others have said I don't see it selling well at $500. Most parents would not consider buying for their kids at that price point (yes, some will but it's a small number). There are so many great large sets for $350 and under for collectors to choose from- both for sale today and retired. Many collectors already own the 10188, and will not "upgrade." Resellers will not bite, because there is no upside in a product that is widely available and will be for the foreseeable future (both in the primary and secondary markets- 10188 and 75159).

Based on this assessment I sold my only 10188 yesterday for $540 shipped. Not the return I was hoping for (as others said this would have been a $1k set in a few years without a release), but got my capital back with a small sliver of profit - and regained some shelf space.

In short, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational when the fleet of hoarded 10188s arrives.... $450 shipped by the street date of the 75159.

 

The price continues to fall.  I think getting out at 540 will be seen as lucky after the dust settles.

[Val-E]

5 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

Anyone holding sets for five years or more should know the risk he/she is taking. It's not in my business model. Knowing one's market is important. 

It shouldn´t be in anyone´s business model anymore but up until a while back it was standard and even recommended procedure. Problem is when the short term appreciation dries up too. There´s a new batmobile next year BTW!

1 minute ago, fossilrock said:

 

The price continues to fall.  I think getting out at 540 will be seen as lucky after the dust settles.

This should be a similar situation to MF 7965 last year. Best hope would that the new one is OOS at Xmas and sell 10188 then. Problem is that high price point.

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

It shouldn´t be in anyone´s business model anymore but up until a while back it was standard and even recommended procedure. Problem is when the short term appreciation dries up too. There´s a new batmobile next year BTW!

Yay! A new Batmobile... 

*sigh*

[dcdfan]

Yay! A new Batmobile... 

*sigh*

It's not The Dark Knight Tumbler so doesn't mean anything to me.

[fossilrock]

I think the real problem is there's a door only so wide to accommodate the large flock that will be trying to rush out of it.  This is going to get ugly, but it's fascinating to watch.

[Darth_Raichu]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

The point is that these past two years, the trend has moved towards re releases with minimal differences or variations on the same theme. It´s not just SW , it´s across the range.

The fallacy of the argument lies on the bold-ed text.  LEGO has been doing this for far longer 

[Salimr]

3 hours ago, Mathew said:

Forget inflation.  I paid $1.88 for a gallon of gas yesterday.  I paid $3.88 a gallon two years ago.  The last Death Star contained 3,802 pieces.  $400 was a fair price back in 2008 after you take in account the number of minifigs.  In 2015 it was a good deal for such a large Star Wars set but not too far off base compared to other UCS sets.  If the new one comes in around the same piece count then really it's price should be about the same.  A $500 sticker price with no discounts will kill it.  I don't care how much you guys try to spin the numbers.

The gas price decline has nothing to do with inflation you would want to look at overall costs of living. I am an inspector for motor fuel, and won't bore you with anything to do with the decline in prices as you could look that information up.

I agree, 500 for something that would be too high. I honestly did not even spend 400 on it as I usually buy used lots, and got this in a lot of sets for 600. I have seen 10188 many times for 250 or less on Craigslist.

[ad2001]

I think the major issue is how close this remake is to the retirement date of the previous set. The DS was still available on Amazon at retail price early this year (I got mind mid March from Amazon prime). A re-release after only about half a year is not acceptable. Imagine them releasing a remake of Birds in Nov with minimal changes ... or retiring the MF later this year and then release yet another one middle of next year .... 

[Deadfraggle]

2 minutes ago, ad2001 said:

... or retiring the MF later this year and then release yet another one middle of next year .... 

yeah, about that.........

[ad2001]

1 minute ago, Deadfraggle said:

yeah, about that.........

well ... at least that's only $10 increase in price ..  

[exciter1]

4 minutes ago, ad2001 said:

well ... at least that's only $10 increase in price ..  

Last year they added the $10 minifigure.

[jstodda]

10 minutes ago, ad2001 said:

well ... at least that's only $10 increase in price ..  

And legitimately a visual improvement (although slightly). But again MEANT as a refresh not really an "advancement"....

Death Star 10188 and UCS Death Star have different connotations to them. That's the rub I think....