75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[tjj1984]

Latest rumor from the EuroBricks thread is that the official announcement is scheduled for 9/1/2016.

I guess we can all sit tight for another two weeks.

[Alpinemaps]

1 hour ago, gbg108 said:

It could be "evergreen" and still get a new better design. They don't have to be mutually exclusive.

I'm mostly annoyed that after 8 years of availability and plenty of profit it looks like LEGO has invested almost none of that time or money into making an even better DS. There are many very talented designers at LEGO and instead of giving them a chance to create an awesome new 4,000 piece set, they choose to more of the same. As a LEGO fan it just feels like a wasted opportunity and it's disappointing.

I definitely agree with you there.  I think the set should be evergreen.  I think it should be refreshed every few years.  Whether that's making small changes to the play structure, incorporating new building techniques or parts, or new minifigs (preferably, all three things), there is a lot more they could have done to refresh it.  Evergreen doesn't mean unchanging (and I apologize if I wasn't clear with that in my statements).

1 hour ago, KShine said:

Than maybe it shouldn't have been labeled as retired by LEGO (since it was really just a short vacation).

Regardless, LEGO is certainly free to do as they please. It might be a good move for them (and it might be a bad one), but it is a bad one for all LEGO investors (whether they are holding any 10188's or not).

I don't really know how LEGO should have addressed that.  I suppose "retiring" it and then issuing it anew, with a new set number and refreshed appearance (as I mentioned above) is about the only way you can do it.  "New and improved!" as they say in marketing.  

IMO, it's only bad if LEGO decides that remakes and refreshes are where they feel they need to take the company.  I don't believe they feel that way - despite the Star Wars refreshes we see, the constant Fire/Police turn over, and the remakes in the Friends line, it's not like they are only doing refreshes throughout their lines.  Ninjago, imo, has stayed pretty fresh.  Elves, Speed Champions, Scooby Doo, Jurassic World, Nexo Knights - these are all fresh ideas that aren't being recycled over and over.

As long as they are limiting the scope of the refreshes, I think we're fine.  If you see 1/3 to 1/2 of their products become refreshes of things past, then there's going to be trouble for everyone.

[biking_tiger]

3 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

As long as they are limiting the scope of the refreshes, I think we're fine.  If you see 1/3 to 1/2 of their products become refreshes of things past, then there's going to be trouble for everyone.

I think refreshes hit the collectibles market where it hurts, but there is more than one way to sell retired Lego. I'll never forget how much my son begged and pleaded to spend his hard earned/saved/pirated money on a Cargo Plane (7734). The set had recently retired, and he had to pony up a small premium. I'm sure the eBay based reseller nabbed it from clearance somewhere and made a tidy profit. But the math was simple: 7 years ago, the Cargo Plane was all he wanted and he would have aged out of that moment before a refresh came along (60022). 

Kids and parents want this stuff, too. There's a lot of money on the table for those who time the market well and don't hold indefinitely. I've said it before and it will always be true: no one is paying dividends on your Lego collection. The only way these investments generate money is in selling them. I've drifted away from the big exclusives and closer to the shorter term holds for decent returns, rinse and repeat, because the market has changed. Buying this DS turned out to be the SW Police Station. There's plenty of unique, less often rehashed sets with less risk and greater upside. 

[Dr Jedi]

2 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

I'm gonna still hold out hope that this 'leaked review' is full of bantha poodoo.

A random cheese wedge on one floor.....Not buying it.

That's what I kept telling myself about the WTS last year.  They couldn't possibly just re-do the first set from this line.  

Oh yes....yes they can.

[redcell]

I'm not bummed or pissed off about these rumors, I'm just baffled.  10188 may have been a great seller for TLG, but if it was, I really don't understand the logic of coming out with a very slightly updated rehash one year after its retirement in the same time frame as Disney is releasing a movie that focuses specifically on the Death Star.  So, instead of coming up with an entirely new design for the DS (even if it was a similarly sized model) that speaks specifically to what is sure to be a billion dollar + movie and thereby capture sales from a large percentage of fans who bought 10188, TLG decides to add some cheese slopes to an 8-year old design that speaks to a movie that was released almost 40 years ago (I'm not taking away anything from the OT in saying that)?  It just doesn't make sense to me and seems like it would be a huge lost opportunity for TLG. 

[jbacunn]

Latest rumor from the EuroBricks thread is that the official announcement is scheduled for 9/1/2016.

I guess we can all sit tight for another two weeks.

I shudder at the thought of the state of this forum in two weeks time. What circle of hell will we have descended to?

[exciter1]

10 minutes ago, jbacunn said:

I shudder at the thought of the state of this forum in two weeks time. What circle of hell will we have descended to?

I think we should just lock this thread now, it's not good for anyone.

[terrymc4677]

1 hour ago, exciter1 said:

I think we should just lock this thread now, it's not good for anyone.

Please don't. As someone who never bought into the 10188 hype and doesn't have a single one for reselling purposes, I find this thread extremely entertaining.

 

 

[BrickLegacy]

More pics should be leaked soon but this is a first look

[Migration]

That's a nice little display shelf, I may make that for one of the kiddos.

[ISO8T0]

Ditto.

[Blake3741]

1 hour ago, redcell said:

I'm not bummed or pissed off about these rumors, I'm just baffled.  10188 may have been a great seller for TLG, but if it was, I really don't understand the logic of coming out with a very slightly updated rehash one year after its retirement in the same time frame as Disney is releasing a movie that focuses specifically on the Death Star.  So, instead of coming up with an entirely new design for the DS (even if it was a similarly sized model) that speaks specifically to what is sure to be a billion dollar + movie and thereby capture sales from a large percentage of fans who bought 10188, TLG decides to add some cheese slopes to an 8-year old design that speaks to a movie that was released almost 40 years ago (I'm not taking away anything from the OT in saying that)?  It just doesn't make sense to me and seems like it would be a huge lost opportunity for TLG. 

I completely agree.

[Ed Mack]

2 hours ago, redcell said:

I'm not bummed or pissed off about these rumors, I'm just baffled.   10188 may have been a great seller for TLG, but if it was, I really don't understand the logic of coming out with a very slightly updated rehash one year after its retirement in the same time frame as Disney is releasing a movie that focuses specifically on the Death Star.  So, instead of coming up with an entirely new design for the DS (even if it was a similarly sized model) that speaks specifically to what is sure to be a billion dollar + movie and thereby capture sales from a large percentage of fans who bought 10188, TLG decides to add some cheese slopes to an 8-year old design that speaks to a movie that was released almost 40 years ago (I'm not taking away anything from the OT in saying that)?  It just doesn't make sense to me and seems like it would be a huge lost opportunity for TLG. 

As I stated earlier, the 75159 reeks of cockiness and laziness...like LEGO is so certain this set will sell as well as the original with limited effort..  If the rumors of a tweaked 10188 are true...it won't.  I guarantee it won't.  I can promise you the reselers of the world will steer clear of the new version.  Let's see how many $500 sets are sold without the help of resellers.

[Rimmit]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

As I stated earlier, the 75159 reeks of cockiness and laziness...like LEGO is so certain this set will sell as well as the original with limited effort..  If the rumors of a tweaked 10188 are true...it won't.  I guarantee it won't.  I can promise you the reselers of the world will steer clear of the new version.  Let's see how many $500 sets are sold without the help of resellers.

Completely agree.  This set has completely changed the resale game completely, and the fact that this WILL NOT sell nearly as well as 10188 will have significant effects on 10188 resale value.  There is a MASSIVE cause and effect chain that can take place here, that could potentially shake the foundations of Lego resales forever.

At $500 dollars, this set comes nowhere close to the 10 cent/piece price point where most consumers feel comfortable buying a Lego set.  Heck, the Disney Castle is 4080 pieces for $350 which comes in below 10 cent/piece.  I know we should base this more off of the weight of plastic, but that is NOT HOW A REGULAR CONSUMER ANALYZES A LEGO PURCHASE.  As appears to be the new Lego pricing scheme, they would rather mark up a set to see what the market will tolerate.  Then based on sales data, resellers will start to discount in order to move the amount of product they need to move.  I.E. UCS Tie Fighter.  This is clearly the new pricing strategy given the sheer amount of Lego's that can be had at 20% off their RRP on Amazon and Walmart at this time.

Well, when this set moves slowly, after 12-18 months, Amazon and Walmart start to get a little antsy and need to clear out warehouse space.  So what do they do?  Start discounting.  We thought the days of 20% off UCS sets was long gone, but the UCS Tie Fighter has clearly taught us differently.  What level discount will it take to move this set? 10%? 20%?  

For many that don't think that can happen on a set of this magnitude, remember, 10179 was sold for 399 for a good portion of it's life cycle.  10188 was discounted a fair amount as well.  If the general population did not buy enough 10188 at $400 to prevent discounting,  just imagine what potential discounts await 75159 at $500.  

So what do you think happens to 10188 resale value if 75159 this set is tanking to $400 dollars to move some stock.  Yep, 10188 will bottom out most likely to $400 as well.  Now many of you on here are sitting on piles of 10188 bought on some B2G1 free deal or some other deal from TRU or B&N and have a buy in around $280 or so, and are feeling good while the selling price is at least $500 or so.  Well.... doesn't feel too good when the selling price has dropped to $400 because 75159 was discounted to $400.  At $400 - $60 in eBay/paypal fees - $40 to ship - $280 = $20.  Awful lot of work for $20 dollars.  If you haven't dumped 10188 before, probably now is the safest time to start dumping, and probably the first year that 75159 is out, as if 75159 starts getting discounted all bets are off.

A set that when it first came out was billed as a sure fire winner, has now turned into a sure fire dud from a resale perspective.  Resellers were a huge driving force for the sets valued at $200 and over, and especially 10188.  There will be much more reserved buying from resellers.  Consumers will also be much more reserved paying a premium for sets on the secondary market for fear that they may purchase a set for $700 dollars only to find that it could be remade and purchased the following year for $200.  I've seen this happen when Art Asylum has continually retired, reissued, retired, reissued much of it's Star Trek Starship line.

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice....

Edited August 17, 2016 by Rimmit

[exciter1]

1/2 price Death Stars, I'm down!

[snot]

24 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

Fool me once shame on me, fool me twice....

Hey someone from Tennessee, alright I know you're from Texas, probably Tennessee...

[fossilrock]

I tend to side with Rimmit.  This is the beginning of the decline.  This is the point where Lego jumped the shark.  

This year's UCS Star Wars sets have been a total dud.  Assault on Hoth was basically 3 sets repackaged and just slightly modified.  This set is just repackaged and slightly modified.  Now that disney has control of the property, we are just seeing a constant regurgitation of rehashed ideas.  I've even mentioned that most of the Rogue One sets look like sets from Force Awakens.  Disney is never innovative, they just play everything safe.  Either way, it's definitely made me realize this could very well be the end of the road for me in wanting to continue buying many more sets for investments. 

 

[Rodeogeorge]

it's definitely made me realize this could very well be the end of the road for me

 

Say it ain't so. I won't quit you fossil rock. Where is that majestic lone wolf perched among the heavens?

[giannini78]

3 hours ago, terrymc4677 said:

Please don't. As someone who never bought into the 10188 hype and doesn't have a single one for reselling purposes, I find this thread extremely entertaining.

 

 

Yep, I never bought a 10188 and now have the choice of the new DS or ****** a 10188 at a reduced price as sellers try to desperately shift their huge stock.

[The Lurker]

Is it possible that Disney were mad about the leaked castle pictures, so lego have put out fake information to different departments to narrow down where the leaks are coming from. The 75159 changes seem way to minimal for something that has alot of potential, the random cheese slope is just comical. 

I know, im living in a dream world but im hoping the original bigger and better info is still true.

[terrymc4677]

In all seriousness, this situation affects everyone in the reselling market in the long run, even those not holding any 10188's. The Winter Toy Shop was just a warning shot from Lego. This "new" Death Star, if the rumors are true, is a direct hit below the belt. The next 1-2 years will be very interesting to watch and try to get a feel for the ever changing market. 

I've never liked 10188 from an investment perspective, which is why I never bought any. I always felt it was too risky for several reasons. We do have a used copy that I obtained in a bulk Star Wars lot a couple of years ago. It contained about thirty sets. Any time I purchase a bulk lot I have my son help go through and build everything so I can then photograph the sets and get them listed as soon as possible. As payment for his services I always let him pick out one set to keep. Naturally, he chose the Death Star as his payment. It took us about five days to build, off and on, and he was so proud of it once it was finished. I would find the pieces and he would do the building. He hasn't touched it in over a year though, so it's been sitting in the corner collecting dust. It may be time to take it apart and put it in storage.

There are two sets that I'm glad I didn't follow the herd regarding investing. One is the Death Star, and the other is the Exo-Suit. Neither one appealed to me. Now, before I break my arm patting myself on the back for avoiding those two land mines, I've got about fifty Joker Steamrollers that I need to move...

 

 

 

[Alpinemaps]

[jaisonline]

Can you update today's pic? Add a bunch of grown men and computer nerd minifigs holding pitchforks.

 

 

3 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

 

[Fenix_2k1]

Alteratively, add a random cheese wedge to the DS and claim its a new release.

[tjj1984]

 

9 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

As I stated earlier, the 75159 reeks of cockiness and laziness...like LEGO is so certain this set will sell as well as the original with limited effort..  If the rumors of a tweaked 10188 are true...it won't.  I guarantee it won't.  I can promise you the reselers of the world will steer clear of the new version.  Let's see how many $500 sets are sold without the help of resellers.

On 8/16/2016 at 7:45 AM, Ed Mack said:

It made LEGO lots of money and will do so again. Why mess with success?