75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[Stud-Flipper]

1 minute ago, tjj1984 said:

Right because people will pay $40 for four minifigures in six months. Or six years.

 

People already pay that much for 1 minifigure now (albeit, specific rare ones)

[Deadfraggle]

3 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

People already pay that much for 1 minifigure now (albeit, specific rare ones)

Cough-Cough-Darth Revan-Cough-Cough

[tjj1984]

3 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

People already pay that much for 1 minifigure now (albeit, specific rare ones)

Rare battlepacks. That's the investment goldmine

[gregpj]

 

Oh yeah... Forgot the exchange was even worse back then. Hmmmm... I have no idea then.

[Zelgazra]

2 hours ago, gregpj said:

 

I don't really get it either... Those Star Wars battle packs are a great deal for figures.

With inflation my bet is 4200 pieces if $500 is the price point. I'm wondering what the Canadian retail is going to be though... $500 US is $650 Canadian... That's uncharted territory by quite a margin.

 

Funny thing is, it actually isn't. 

I purchased a bulk lot the other week. It came with a huge stack of instructions.... nestled in with that stack of instructions was a Canadian Summer 2008 LEGO Catalog. Guess which big sets came out in 2008? 10179 was listed in there at $679.99. I'll take a pic later if I remember. 

Edit: Just straight up replied, didn't read further. 111ins pointed this out already I see. I can prove it with a pic though.  

Edited August 4, 2016 by Zelgazra

[BrickLegacy]

Good news for those participating in the purge.  Folks are still buying the 10188 at a decent clip, at least for now:

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&LH_Sold=1&_mPrRngCbx=1&_udlo=401&_udhi=&LH_ItemCondition=3&_samilow=&_samihi=&_sadis=15&_stpos=43551&_sop=1&_ipg=50&LH_Complete=1&_nkw=10188+lego&rt=nc&_dmd=2

[Stud-Flipper]

5 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

Good news for those participating in the purge.  Folks are still buying the 10188 at a decent clip, at least for now:

Sales are gonna plummet once pics of the new one leak.

[Furious_george]

2 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

Sales are gonna plummet once pics of the new one leak.

I rekn you may be right.

[exciter1]

5 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

Sales are gonna plummet once pics of the new one leak.

How far can they plummet?  I don't reckon they'll fall more than $100, since it's below break even for most beyond that point.

[Alpinemaps]

Our countdown clock:

[Mos_Eisley]

18 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Our countdown clock:

I thought for sure you were getting a rush order at Staples for a cardboard standee cutout.  Oh well, maybe for the next UCS set.  

 

[Martae54]

As long as the countdown ends like this i am down with it. 

[jomandybri]

Just posted a comment in the wrong thread- sorry!

Edited August 4, 2016 by jomandybri
Wrong thread!

[biking_tiger]

3 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

Our countdown clock:

New pic every day, please.  

[KShine]

16 hours ago, fossilrock said:

It will be interesting to see how much longer lego can raise their prices on sets, before people stop buying or their profits begin to decline.  If the set is 500, it needs to be absolutely worth something i'd be willing to pay 500 for.  It can't be something that feels like a 300.00 set from a few years back, because that's not going to fly anymore.  Lego is now overvaluing itself, and I think we are starting to see those cracks in the wall.   Just look at the recent UCS Tie as a prime example.  They can't sell it off at 199.99, but when it hits 139.99, they can finally move them.  This shows that these sets are initially overvalued by the suits, and this seems to be an increasing phenomenon, and it's going to bite them if they keep that mentality going, because a majority of consumers will drop out.

Higher LEGO retail prices are great for investors with stockpiles of retired sets.

They raise the bar on pricing, and over time, can give the illusion that even overpriced items (on retired sets) are cheap.

[fossilrock]

6 minutes ago, KShine said:

Higher LEGO retail prices are great for investors with stockpiles of retired sets.

They raise the bar on pricing, and over time, can give the illusion that even overpriced items (on retired sets) are cheap.

Not if all those sets are rehashes of the new set being put out.  I've seen this sort of thing happen with mcfarlane toys way back in the day, star wars action figures,  the cars line a few years back, and other lines where after a while the lines became stale because they were either rehashing the same figures by just changing up the cars, or just doing a repaint, meanwhile they raise the price.  Eventually people are like "ehhh...I kind of already have that".  As the "collectible" starts to rot because there is nothing fresh being added, so do people's feelings towards it.  Then the intrinsic value of that collectable starts to lose its luster. 

I'd be cautious.  While, I agree there are many sets that are going to hold their value, there are many forces at work right now, leaving me to believe we could be in the "intrinsic rot" phase of lego collectables.  I swing back and forth on this concept all the time, because there are times where all the sudden i'll sell something and feel that maybe i'm wrong, but lately i'm starting to see the cracks again.  This summer has been a very slow period for me, anyway.  Sales prices aren't going to where I want them to be to even thinking about ditching sets, but if the rot happens, i'll wish I did. 

[Sandwraith]

If this thing ends up being something half UCS half play-set cut down the middle with one side panelled and UCS displayable, other side open to play in; it would be best case scenario for me personally... would be great to mount on the wall and hide away the play part

[KShine]

1 minute ago, fossilrock said:

Not if all those sets are rehashes of the new set being put out.  I've seen this sort of thing happen with mcfarlane toys way back in the day, star wars action figures,  the cars line a few years back, and other lines where after a while the lines became stale because they were either rehashing the same figures by just changing up the cars, or just doing a repaint, meanwhile they raise the price.  Eventually people are like "ehhh...I kind of already have that".  As the "collectible" starts to rot because there is nothing fresh being added, so do people's feelings towards it.  Then the intrinsic value of that collectable starts to lose its luster. 

I'd be cautious.  While, I agree there are many sets that are going to hold their value, there are many forces at work right now, leaving me to believe we could be in the "intrinsic rot" phase of lego collectables.  I swing back and forth on this concept all the time, because there are times where all the sudden i'll sell something and feel that maybe i'm wrong, but lately i'm starting to see the cracks again.  This summer has been a very slow period for me, anyway.  Sales prices aren't going to where I want them to be to even thinking about ditching sets, but if the rot happens, i'll wish I did. 

Creatively, LEGO sets have largely gone to crap. Yes, there are certainly exceptions - but for the most part, it is difficult to see much enthusiasm (and lots of laziness) in the designs.

That, is a real problem - but in regard to prices, investors do benefit from higher prices.

My impression is that the designers have been faced with more & more building restrictions. They are certainly creative individuals, so when faced with having great ideas that are being shot down - a normal reaction would be to stop trying to innovate (to avoid the disappointment), and just provide the same old crap that management wants.

[fossilrock]

25 minutes ago, KShine said:

Creatively, LEGO sets have largely gone to crap. Yes, there are certainly exceptions - but for the most part, it is difficult to see much enthusiasm (and lots of laziness) in the designs.

That, is a real problem - but in regard to prices, investors do benefit from higher prices.

My impression is that the designers have been faced with more & more building restrictions. They are certainly creative individuals, so when faced with having great ideas that are being shot down - a normal reaction would be to stop trying to innovate (to avoid the disappointment), and just provide the same old crap that management wants.

I agree.  This year is lackluster compared to previous years.  When I buy a 200 dollar + set, I think i'm not alone in that I want that joyful feeling that when we complete it my son, wife and I can stand back look at it and say "wow - that looks awesome" and then if it's a homerun set it usually gets a lot of play value with my son. 

Many sets this year all across the board are failing to do that.

This year is quite below average compared to the previous 4 to 5 years.  While I do think the Brick Bank, Big Ben, Disney Castle look incredible, there were many large sets that don't give me that "I got to run out and buy that right now" feeling.  I also don't have interest in the Castle or Big Ben, just because sets like that take up a lot of room, and i'd rather save the space for modular buildings or future star wars items since we have probably 20 new sets on the way over the next year. So while I greatly appreciate them, it's not my cup of tea.  That also plays a role in how I feel about these sets, as part consumer, part collector, and part investor.   Would I pay 500 to 600 for Big Ben if it retired early, and then I really felt I needed to add it 2 to 3 years ago if my mood changed?  I don't know.  I don't think so.  I also feel the same way about many of these recent Star Wars sets.  This year just lacks a lot of creativity and innovation in that theme.  There's too much repetition that it's becoming stale.  Maybe there will be a few gems in the Rogue One or Episode 8 waves, but i'm not going to hold my breath, because out of the gate it looks like a lot of just rehashed themes being recycled to where there are just small changes from last years sets. 

Looking back, the Sea Cow was a heck of a lot more fun and innovative than all the sets put out this year so far.  That set looks better and better every day.

Edited August 4, 2016 by fossilrock

[Alpinemaps]

6 hours ago, Martae54 said:

As long as the countdown ends like this i am down with it. 

Uh oh.  I may not have thought this thing through.

4 hours ago, biking_tiger said:

New pic every day, please.  

Going to do my best.  My 4 year old isn't happy that I stole his Death Star for this effort.

[Darth_Raichu]

5 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Uh oh.  I may not have thought this thing through.

Going to do my best.  My 4 year old isn't happy that I stole his Death Star for this effort.

What if you rotate the topper between: DS, micro MF, micro X-Wing, micro TIE, etc then back to DS when the countdown is down to 1 digit ?

[Phil B]

8 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Uh oh.  I may not have thought this thing through.

Going to do my best.  My 4 year old isn't happy that I stole his Death Star for this effort.

Just a tip, and likely something you've already thought of: Make all the pictures in one sitting Then just post a new one each day. Saves you tons of hassle. Plus your son will get his DS back.

[Mos_Eisley]

5 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Just a tip, and likely something you've already thought of: Make all the pictures in one sitting Then just post a new one each day. Saves you tons of hassle. Plus your son will get his DS back.

No, he signed up for this. Now the pic needs to include a newspaper as well to make sure it's legit. 

[mezzaluna]

im willing to bet that even though this set is $500 and is 16 and up its still a play set!

[asharerin]

2 minutes ago, Knightwing01 said:

im willing to bet that even though this set is $500 and is 16 and up its still a play set!

I agree. I would not expect a large departure from a proven formula on such a big investment by TLG. I am expecting the minifigs and play features to be fantastic and a nice upgrade. The majority of the build however is probably going to be awfully familiar. Most importantly it will give TLG the confidence to give us our most desired UCS at the $600 - $800 price points in the future. Baby steps.