75159 - UCS: Death Star (2016)

[gregpj]

This one is for you LEGO, inspired by @BrickLegacy and brought to you by Brickpickers everywhere.

[Will 4]

1 hour ago, mattyman said:

Still can't find it. Maybe it's been removed. 

Found it yet?

http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=130713

[CM4Sci]

Whatever that is it's not real

[fossilrock]

After some of the rumors this past week, i've noticed the 10188 Death Star has dropped about 40.00 on amazon.  However, the reseller count continues to dwindle too, however, with the new one coming, I don't think the growth on this one will be very high.  I'm starting to think this version will cap out around 750 for the next few years, if not longer.

[Will 4]

51 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

After some of the rumors this past week, i've noticed the 10188 Death Star has dropped about 40.00 on amazon.  However, the reseller count continues to dwindle too, however, with the new one coming, I don't think the growth on this one will be very high.  I'm starting to think this version will cap out around 750 for the next few years, if not longer.

May be as a non death star owner I am trying to reduce the price so I can get them cheaper by inventing this rumor

[asharerin]

2 hours ago, fossilrock said:

After some of the rumors this past week, i've noticed the 10188 Death Star has dropped about 40.00 on amazon.  However, the reseller count continues to dwindle too, however, with the new one coming, I don't think the growth on this one will be very high.  I'm starting to think this version will cap out around 750 for the next few years, if not longer.

If the new set is a rehash then expect 10188 to follow the same pattern of the original sandcrawler and toy shop. Price on amazon will fall fast and far as there are some guys with very large stockpiles utilizing repricers. Throw in the rest of the herd who will be happy to be break even or just below and it is not going to be an orderly exit.

On the other hand if 75159 turns out to be a $250 AoH style mess then expect the price to rebound quickly as people like me buy back all the recently discounted 10188

[jaisonline]

1 hour ago, asharerin said:

If the new set is a rehash then expect 10188 to follow the same pattern of the original sandcrawler and toy shop. Price on amazon will fall fast and far as there are some guys with very large stockpiles utilizing repricers.

I totally agree based on history.  I predicted that for the Sandcrawler, Sail Barge and ISD before the refreshes were made public after seeing what happened with the original 7778 batcave which was night and day better than it's replacement.   Now for refreshed sets like the original Batcave and Sail Barge, their values did slowly appreciate again but it took time.  plus their appreciation rate wasn't now where like before.

 

1 hour ago, asharerin said:

IOn the other hand if 75159 turns out to be a $250 AoH style mess then expect the price to rebound quickly as people like me buy back all the recently discounted 10188

based on history,  even original sets that were much better than their refreshes didn't rebound quickly.   ISD, Sandcrawler, Batcave, many batmobiles, the original sopwith camel, etc... took a while for values to stop decreasing, stabilize and appreciate.  

[landphieran]

@asharerin  I know you mentioned you sold most of your 10188 Death Star's in anticipation that the new one will be similar/superior to the old causing the price decrease. Others speculated the DS price decrease to be similar to the original Sandcrawler. 

I'm trying to understand why a new Death Star, assuming its similar, would greatly decrease the value of the old Death Star. Most consumers are collectors/fans/a few rich parents. I envision a short-mid term (6 months - 1 year) period of stagnation as people splurge for the new Death Star, as most fans/rich parents peel off to get the new set. However, ultimately i still see collectors going back to get the get the previous model. Most of the AT-AT and ISD collectors have one of each ship and I foresee the same situation for the Death Star. Do you guys think the majority of consumers buying Death Stars are fans/rich parents looking for the best new thing? What reason's did I miss that would cause the value to fall?

In the case of the old Sandcrawler, in my opinion, it had already fully appreciated and scarcity was artificially keeping the price high. I think the old Death Star, though showing its age is still an impressive set that collectors will want to own.

 

[pete411]

27 minutes ago, landphieran said:

@asharerin  I know you mentioned you sold most of your 10188 Death Star's in anticipation that the new one will be similar/superior to the old causing the price decrease. Others speculated the DS price decrease to be similar to the original Sandcrawler. 

I'm trying to understand why a new Death Star, assuming its similar, would greatly decrease the value of the old Death Star. Most consumers are collectors/fans/a few rich parents. I envision a short-mid term (6 months - 1 year) period of stagnation as people splurge for the new Death Star, as most fans/rich parents peel off to get the new set. However, ultimately i still see collectors going back to get the get the previous model. Most of the AT-AT and ISD collectors have one of each ship and I foresee the same situation for the Death Star. Do you guys think the majority of consumers buying Death Stars are fans/rich parents looking for the best new thing? What reason's did I miss that would cause the value to fall?

In the case of the old Sandcrawler, in my opinion, it had already fully appreciated and scarcity was artificially keeping the price high. I think the old Death Star, though showing its age is still an impressive set that collectors will want to own.

 

But there are thousands upon thousands of 10188s out there. Scarcity is a big factor in appreciation and 10188 does not have that going for it. People have been hoarding this set since the dawn of time. Hell, I didn't even try to buy any and I somehow have six of them all neat and still in the shipping cartons. 

[BrickLegacy]

1 hour ago, pete411 said:

Hell, I didn't even try to buy any and I somehow have six of them all neat and still in the shipping cartons. 

I had no intentions of investing in it either but I made my first investment in March 2015 followed by a couple in the Summer and a few more in the Fall/Winter.  I can't tell you how many other sets I turned my back on until the very last minute. You're right, somehow it just happens.

[Stud-Flipper]

36 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

You're right, somehow it just happens.

[asharerin]

2 hours ago, landphieran said:

@asharerin  I know you mentioned you sold most of your 10188 Death Star's in anticipation that the new one will be similar/superior to the old causing the price decrease. Others speculated the DS price decrease to be similar to the original Sandcrawler. 

I'm trying to understand why a new Death Star, assuming its similar, would greatly decrease the value of the old Death Star.
 

I only analyse the market. There are very large supplies of 10188. If 75159 is a close and improved version of 10188 then that takes away the vast majority of customers in the market for 10188. Not many are going to choose an outdated 10188 if 75159 is basically the same set with highly detailed figs and improved build. It will also encourage the quick dumping of 10188 which is going to cause a very fast spiral downward in prices. Most resellers will be happy with break even or small loss rather than holding stock for 5+ years hoping for an eventual rebound. There are some collectors who must have every set of a certain theme but I don't think there are enough of them to absorb the mass exodus early on. If 75159 is not up to par with 10188 then you can be sure 10188 is going to the moon and I will be along for that ride as well.

 

[Ed Mack]

18 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I only analyse the market. There are very large supplies of 10188 . If 75159 is a close and improved version of 10188 then that takes away the vast majority of customers in the market for 10188 . Not many are going to choose an outdated 10188 if 75159 is basically the same set with highly detailed figs and improved build. It will also encourage the quick dumping of 10188 which is going to cause a very fast spiral downward in prices. Most resellers will be happy with break even or small loss rather than holding stock for 5+ years hoping for an eventual rebound. There are some collectors who must have every set of a certain theme but I don't think there are enough of them to absorb the mass exodus early on. If 75159 is not up to par with 10188 then you can be sure 10188 is going to the moon and I will be along for that ride as well.

 

Let the Purge begin!

[Darth_Raichu]

20 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Let the Purge begin!

Hmm, isn't the Purge a good thing for people holding this set for the long haul ???

[scuttfarkas]

PREDICTION:  Count me as one who thinks the new DS release will somehow incorporate ROGUE ONE/REBELS features.  I, for one, don't think they keep a set out for 8 years; kill it for a year and then bring essentially the same set back out again...particularly when two (ROGUE ONE and REBELS) of the current STAR WARS story arcs from Disney are set in the time of the Death Star. This would fit right in the middle of desirable scenarios for those holding 10188....

BEST CASE - Cheapo 199.99/249.99 remake that pales in comparison to 10188.

MIDDLE CASE - Higher dollar Death Star that mines the ROGUE ONE/REBELS ERA.

WORST CASE - Higher dollar Death Star that is essentially a carbon copy of 10188 but with better figures/building techniques. 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2016 by scuttfarkas

[wolfenn]

i know it is called a death star but has anyone considered that is might look like starkiller base ? It is essentially a bigger death star even if it has a different name  ... that would be cool.

[Deadfraggle]

4 minutes ago, wolfenn said:

i know it is called a death star but has anyone considered that is might look like starkiller base ? It is essentially a bigger death star even if it has a different name  ... that would be cool.

Mind Blown! 

[jaisonline]

7 hours ago, landphieran said:

@asharerin  I know you mentioned you sold most of your 10188 Death Star 's in anticipation that the new one will be similar/superior to the old causing the price decrease. Others speculated the  DS price decrease to be similar to the original  Sandcrawler . 

I'm trying to understand why a new Death Star , assuming its similar, would greatly decrease the value of the old Death Star . Most consumers are collectors/fans/a few rich parents. I envision a short-mid term (6 months - 1 year) period of stagnation as people splurge for the new Death Star , as most fans/rich parents peel off to get the new set. However, ultimately i still see collectors going back to get the get the previous model. Most of the AT-AT and ISD collectors have one of each ship and I foresee the same situation for the Death Star . Do you guys think the majority of consumers buying Death Stars are fans/rich parents looking for the best new thing? What reason's did I miss that would cause the value to fall?

In the case of the old Sandcrawler , in my opinion, it had already fully appreciated and scarcity was artificially keeping the price high. I think the old Death Star , though showing its age is still an impressive set that collectors will want to own.

 

Couple things. I'll reply in more detail later tonight. 

1) read what I typed in my previous post in this topic about what refreshes / remakes do to the vast majority of sets. Yeah, people give me the UCS X-Wing refresh as the outlier. Look, the latest x-wing set greatly reduced the demand and sold auctions of the original UCS set. However, at least the original set still had a slow steady appreciation (very slow). 

2) 10144's growth / value was still appreciating until the new Sandcrawler was announced. It's growth was not fully realized. Please see my posts in the 10144 and new Sandcrawler topics for pricing info to see what I mean.  It was still going strong.

3. Despite 10188 being available at retail for many years, it's prob not as hoarded as you think. The set was very expensive and wasn't discounted for the last years of retail availability. If anything, I would wager (w/o proof though) that  most investment 10188s are probably owned by 2 types of resellers : A) big-time sellers with 20+ or sellers with 1-2 each. I think people like me with 6 (or less) prob control a small % of the current and future 10188 market. 

4.  Buyers seem to always like refreshes better for various reasons. "Keeping up with the Jones", newer sets are either better or cheaper than the originals, etc..

[pete411]

29 minutes ago, scuttfarkas said:

PREDICTION:  Count me as one who thinks the new DS release will somehow incorporate ROGUE ONE/REBELS features.  I, for one, don't think they keep a set out for 8 years; kill it for a year and then bring essentially the same set back out again...particularly when two (ROGUE ONE and REBELS) of the current STAR WARS story arcs from Disney are set in the time of the Death Star. This would fit right in the middle of desirable scenarios for those holding 10188....

BEST CASE - Cheapo 199.99/249.99 remake that pales in comparison to 10188.

MIDDLE CASE - Higher dollar Death Star that mines the ROGUE ONE/REBELS ERA.

WORST CASE - Higher dollar Death Star that is essentially a carbon copy of 10188 but with better figures/building techniques. 

 

 

When has Lego mixed different Star Wars eras in any of their previous sets? Rogue One is a one-shot movie. People will forget about it in a couple of years. Rebels is part of canon (barely - think Agents of Shield-like relation to the rest of the Marvel Universe), but it's a kid's show and kids typically don't spend $400 on a single toy. Star Wars: A New Hope is forever. This set is going to be the flagship Lego Star Wars set for the next 5-7 years. It's gonna be a complete failure like AOH, or a big hulking doozy. I'm betting on the later.

 

28 minutes ago, wolfenn said:

i know it is called a death star but has anyone considered that is might look like starkiller base ? It is essentially a bigger death star even if it has a different name  ... that would be cool.

Yes, we've already discussed that it might be but nobody in their right mind believes one minute that this non-memorable planet with a giant star cannon on it is going to be the most expensive set that Lego will put out since the UCS Falcon.

[Stud-Flipper]

I haven't been keeping up with this. Is there a piece count or price out yet?

[CM4Sci]

3 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

I haven't been keeping up with this. Is there a piece count or price out yet?

$500 and ..??

[jstodda]

I think a few things are at play. The Rogue one movie is a stand-alone but the center of the movie is the Death Star and the plans around it. Even if no one remembers that movie they will remember the iconic look up the Death Star and everything surrounding it.

The other thing at play is the fact that this takes us back to the original Star Wars movie. This will pull at the heartstrings of the older fans of Lego right around the holiday season corresponding with the time that this set comes out. Everyone will flock to get their hands on a Death Star as Star Wars frenzy picks up again during the holidays.

Disney has been around for a long time and while they make some mistakes they are not a stupid company. They will learn from the UCS Hoth and work to restore the value that UCS has as a branding on a set.

My guess is a $500 "Cinderella Castle" style remake of 10188 with a 10143 side to it. Cinderella for the girls and Death Star for the boys. AFOL folks remember the New Hope days and recent Star Wars fans play off Rouge One. It's gonna be big, especially for holiday.

[marcandre]

10 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

I haven't been keeping up with this. Is there a piece count or price out yet?

Read the first post on the thread. Skip next 15 pages. Read last post (this one) You now have all known information. 

[exciter1]

I'm banking on a shortage this holiday season and they'll be desperate for any Death Star they can get their hands on.

[scuttfarkas]

1 hour ago, pete411 said:

When has Lego mixed different Star Wars eras in any of their previous sets? Rogue One is a one-shot movie. People will forget about it in a couple of years. Rebels is part of canon (barely - think Agents of Shield-like relation to the rest of the Marvel Universe), but it's a kid's show and kids typically don't spend $400 on a single toy. Star Wars: A New Hope is forever. This set is going to be the flagship Lego Star Wars set for the next 5-7 years. It's gonna be a complete failure like AOH, or a big hulking doozy. I'm betting on the later.

 

Yes, we've already discussed that it might be but nobody in their right mind believes one minute that this non-memorable planet with a giant star cannon on it is going to be the most expensive set that Lego will put out since the UCS Falcon.

Doesn't 10188 already mix different STAR WARS movies under one playset? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember the throne room, Imperial Guards or even The Emperor in A New Hope.  Heck....technically, with the ROTJ Luke, Emperor and Imperial Guard figures....they're representing two Death Stars in one playset.  

Rogue One also isn't neccessarily a "one-shot" movie as the movies fits seamlessly up against A New Hope. This isn't a standalone adventure on the far side of the STAR WARS galaxy....this story essentially starts the Original Trilogy.  

And while REBELS is a cartoon(some would argue it isn't simply a "kids" show)...it is part of canon period...not barely.  We've already seen in the MARVEL/DISNEY Universe what lengths Disney will go to to intergrate broadcast television shows, pay television shows and movies into one coherent universe.....there's no reason DISNEY won't do the same with STAR WARS.  

 

 

[jstodda]

I'm banking on a shortage this holiday season and they'll be desperate for any Death Star they can get their hands on.

Especially if this is a big bad version. It should be short stocked. And a death Star is a death Star to little Timmy. Lol