This is Money - "Build a fortune from Lego stashed in the attic"

[Ed Mack]

Hello guys,

does anybody remember or think about it when and why this bubble started if it really exists?

I just thought to myself, when was the time that the first AFOL was born in this world? And even why and when he started appreciating Lego and its toyworld. Was it when he saw his son playing with his old toys that pushed him out of the dark ages?! And when did he realized there will be money to be made with old sets or buying beyond msrp?!

I think, if you really could go back to this moment, we would better understand how the lego phenomenon works.

So my conclusion at first sight is that the possible bubble started with the first AFOL who saw the potential in reselling. So he "infected" other people who first didn't saw how cool lego is and dropped them out of their dark ages... and so on... demand increases till it reaches its critical point...

Snd even this forum and other media pushes more people to this gold digging rush as it seems to be now!

Fact is we know that there are thousands of resellers and maybe not enough buyers. But do we actually have reached the critical mass? Do we have no choice and gi down? Maybe or maybe not. It is an interesting time and I will look back at this moment right now in a few years. Surely I will be amazed what will be happened!

Greetings,

Chris

The real or fantasy bubble started on or about September 3, 1995.

[Val-E]

Has 10188 really been out THAT long?

[conceptmachine]

Ed,  I'd be able to live off all my legos when I retire at 55 then.  Don't need to put anything into gold, 401k or Roths.  I'll just dump 100k a year on legos.

I hope your theory is correct...

Edited November 20, 2015 by conceptmachine

[d4m60d]

Shame on this date september 3, 1995! The first AFOL infected too much people which decreased prices today . Its a paradox, without other AFOLs no one's there willing to buy over msrp for investment purposes but without too much of them prices declines.

I don't want to judge anybody event not Ed or someone. But with starting brickpicker and sharing the knowledge of brickpicking this game becomes a public hobby. The winner in every case are the first AFOLs that purchased the good old sets, everybody else good luck! Ed is definitdly the winner. He started everything started this forum and weites now books. He has made the best money and will do that in future too. He was at the right time at the right place. Chapeau!! We other brickpicker even those who started in the last two years will be not able to make so much money as the people before them. The market is more volatile and fluctuating. Even the crazy decisions of legos production runs. No one could bet on a really secure set that will retire, its roulette game.

Lets see what comes, I hope I tipped on the right 6 sets on this year lego lottery.

[mauro23]

That is not really true. I started the game 8 years ago and was one of the first sellers who made good profit selling Cafe Corner or Green Grocer or Town Plan...

Nevertheless my best decision was one year ago to buy 100 Mars Rovers. Therefore I say, the game is more difficult but still possible...

[JRandall]

On 11/21/2015 at 1:42 PM, d4m60d said:

Shame on this date september 3, 1995! The first AFOL infected too much people which decreased prices today . Its a paradox, without other AFOLs no one's there willing to buy over msrp for investment purposes but without too much of them prices declines.

 

I don't want to judge anybody event not Ed or someone. But with starting brickpicker and sharing the knowledge of brickpicking this game becomes a public hobby. The winner in every case are the first AFOLs that purchased the good old sets, everybody else good luck! Ed is definitdly the winner. He started everything started this forum and weites now books. He has made the best money and will do that in future too. He was at the right time at the right place. Chapeau!! We other brickpicker even those who started in the last two years will be not able to make so much money as the people before them. The market is more volatile and fluctuating. Even the crazy decisions of legos production runs. No one could bet on a really secure set that will retire, its roulette game.

 

Lets see what comes, I hope I tipped on the right 6 sets on this year lego lottery.

I have to disagree about the early AFOLs, people who are 15-25 today won't want sets from the early 90's or 80's.  At that point maybe only a small amount of niche wealthy collectors will want those earliest sets and their numbers will be very very small.  The best sets will be the iconic must have sets of this decade that cost too much for little bobby to purchase it when he really wanted it.

[wgemini]

I am new here. But isn't the whole point of Lego about interchangeability? Unless it's the box that is valued or there was some unique pieces, wouldn't a set worth exactly the same as the same pieces from other sources? And given that Lego is producing mostly the same pieces years after years, why would it appreciate above inflation? 

I bought 10697 as my first Lego set for $40CAD. That's about 3 cents per piece. I honestly can't see myself buying anything else. Hopefully next year they will produce a similar set for black Friday. Or maybe it will be my last lego set. 

[Val-E]

10 minutes ago, wgemini said:

I am new here. But isn't the whole point of Lego about interchangeability? Unless it's the box that is valued or there was some unique pieces, wouldn't a set worth exactly the same as the same pieces from other sources? And given that Lego is producing mostly the same pieces years after years, why would it appreciate above inflation? 

I bought 10697 as my first Lego set for $40CAD. That's about 3 cents per piece. I honestly can't see myself buying anything else. Hopefully next year they will produce a similar set for black Friday. Or maybe it will be my last lego set. 

It´s the experience of opening a new set and being the first to touch it that adds value. Something similar to when women wore chastity belts, I believe.

[Zelgazra]

11 minutes ago, wgemini said:

I am new here. But isn't the whole point of Lego about interchangeability? Unless it's the box that is valued or there was some unique pieces, wouldn't a set worth exactly the same as the same pieces from other sources? And given that Lego is producing mostly the same pieces years after years, why would it appreciate above inflation? 

I bought 10697 as my first Lego set for $40CAD. That's about 3 cents per piece. I honestly can't see myself buying anything else. Hopefully next year they will produce a similar set for black Friday. Or maybe it will be my last lego set. 

For a price per brick ratio, that Walmart deal is by far and away the best all year. So it's sad to say that it may be your last set. Unless you come to grasps with the value of that deal, and then appreciate the bricks for what they really cost, more around 8-10c per.

[thoroakenfelder]

14 minutes ago, wgemini said:

I am new here. But isn't the whole point of Lego about interchangeability? Unless it's the box that is valued or there was some unique pieces, wouldn't a set worth exactly the same as the same pieces from other sources? And given that Lego is producing mostly the same pieces years after years, why would it appreciate above inflation? 

I bought 10697 as my first Lego set for $40CAD. That's about 3 cents per piece. I honestly can't see myself buying anything else. Hopefully next year they will produce a similar set for black Friday. Or maybe it will be my last lego set. 

You get a large selection of pieces with that set, but not the whole selection. There are a lot of pieces that are just not included. Unique pieces, or pieces that come in different colors. You get no unique minifigures. Every set has unique pieces, whether it is a shape or a color. Collectors are buying a whole set, the bricks in the packets, the instruction booklets, the expertise that went into creating the set in the first place, the opportunity to own something that is no longer being sold, the certain knowledge that the unopened sets have not had pieces wedged inside a kid's nose, mouth, underpants, or dog's digestive tract.

Building the sets that LEGO creates, especially the larger sets, teaches the builder about techniques to get more playability out of their bulk LEGO. Whereas a beginner will make a blocky box or brick shape for everything that they try to make, someone that has experienced more build techniques begins to understand how to smooth out those sharp lines.

If you're truly only concerned about the price per piece and not the box, I'd suggest buying bulk used lots of Ebay or from garage sales, goodwill, craigslist, offerup, etc. What are your goals? If your goals are to hope that once a year, Walmart offers a big box that can be flipped, that's fine, but I would say narrow. Understanding the culture involved with a product is key to understanding its value. Without either being involved in that culture or doing a lot of reading to try to understand, you'll be on the outside asking why there's value and missing out on the opportunities that arise for others because they looked beyond an anomalous 3 cent price per piece. Basing the rest of your year's purchases around Black Friday doesn't work for everything else that you buy does it?

 

[wgemini]

5 minutes ago, Zelgazra said:

For a price per brick ratio, that Walmart deal is by far and away the best all year. So it's sad to say that it may be your last set. Unless you come to grasps with the value of that deal, and then appreciate the bricks for what they really cost, more around 8-10c per.

I understand it was a great deal, but it was not a unique deal. Last year, it was 10664 with 1600 pieces (some people said 10697 was a better deal since it got better pieces, I wouldn't know). Hopefully, next year we would have a similar deal. 

I guess I am spoiled now.  Saw some discounted sets over the holidays and I really liked that ice mammoth stomper for $50ish, but just could get over the price/piece hurdle. It also made me feel foolish for buying overpriced Transformers. Damn that set ruined my life.  

[stephen_rockefeller]

You sure the sense of foolishness wasn't from buying a Chima set? Something to look into

[fossilrock]

I definitely agree with what he is saying.  Personally, as long as lego is viewed as an art form (which it very much is), you can bust open some of those unproductive themes and sets, and use them in grand giant moc's that you then sell for more than you'd ever get from a set.  So, really it does come down to the rarity of pieces.

Even chima sets, I watch for clearance now, not for the set itself, but for what it could possibly be turned into.  Chima sets can make for good environment moc's, especially that giant mammoth set.  You just have to train your mind to say "this mammoth can be turned into 3 trees and a cabin.."

[thoroakenfelder]

6 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Even chima sets, I watch for clearance now, not for the set itself, but for what it could possibly be turned into.  Chima sets can make for good environment moc's, especially that giant mammoth set.  You just have to train your mind to say "this mammoth can be turned into 3 trees and a cabin.."

now I want to see a cabin made out of a mammoth

[fossilrock]

11 minutes ago, thoroakenfelder said:

now I want to see a cabin made out of a mammoth

It's the perfect starter kit for Beorn's Cabin...

[wgemini]

10 minutes ago, thoroakenfelder said:

You get a large selection of pieces with that set, but not the whole selection. There are a lot of pieces that are just not included. Unique pieces, or pieces that come in different colors. You get no unique minifigures. Every set has unique pieces, whether it is a shape or a color. Collectors are buying a whole set, the bricks in the packets, the instruction booklets, the expertise that went into creating the set in the first place, the opportunity to own something that is no longer being sold, the certain knowledge that the unopened sets have not had pieces wedged inside a kid's nose, mouth, underpants, or dog's digestive tract.

Building the sets that LEGO creates, especially the larger sets, teaches the builder about techniques to get more playability out of their bulk LEGO. Whereas a beginner will make a blocky box or brick shape for everything that they try to make, someone that has experienced more build techniques begins to understand how to smooth out those sharp lines.

If you're truly only concerned about the price per piece and not the box, I'd suggest buying bulk used lots of Ebay or from garage sales, goodwill, craigslist, offerup, etc. What are your goals? If your goals are to hope that once a year, Walmart offers a big box that can be flipped, that's fine, but I would say narrow. Understanding the culture involved with a product is key to understanding its value. Without either being involved in that culture or doing a lot of reading to try to understand, you'll be on the outside asking why there's value and missing out on the opportunities that arise for others because they looked beyond an anomalous 3 cent price per piece. Basing the rest of your year's purchases around Black Friday doesn't work for everything else that you buy does it?

 

I disagree about the technique part. Lego digital designer and other CAD tools allow me to build anything with any pieces, so I can learn all the techniques using free online instructions for the sets and MOC plans. There are certainly a lot to learn, but real bricks are not required except maybe for some fine motor skills and some physics (which lego or third party developers will hopefully solve via physics based 3D programs). 

I have to say I don't understand the current lego culture. When I was a kid, toys were to be played, not to be admired. That was especially true with building toys. You build something (usually in 5 minutes) and you immediately destroy it to build something else. Most of the creation left much to imagination. I remember I had a Lego set (or something similar), maybe 20-40 pieces in total, half to the time I couldn't find most of it and you can be sure that it went through everything. It had a mud guard for a car which doubled as the shovel for a bulldozer. Now, I have trouble building a bulldozer using 1500 pieces because I don't have that specialized shovel piece that doesn't look like a flipped mud guard.

I am new to Lego, but I do have transformers. It struck me recently that I haven't transformed most of them in ages and some of them are MIB or even MISB. Hopefully, I will be able to play with Lego more and find that child again. 

I didn't really have a goal when I bought the set other than for my kid a few years down the road (not for flipping since I don't sell my toys). I guess now my goal is to build the sets without buying the sets using generic pieces bought bulk. And hopefully, once I learned enough, I would be able to build things better than (or at least different from) the sets. Unfortunately, 1500 pieces is nothing. So looking forward for the next sale.  

 

 

 

 

[thoroakenfelder]

20 minutes ago, wgemini said:

I disagree about the technique part. Lego digital designer and other CAD tools allow me to build anything with any pieces, so I can learn all the techniques using free online instructions for the sets and MOC plans. There are certainly a lot to learn, but real bricks are not required except maybe for some fine motor skills and some physics (which lego or third party developers will hopefully solve via physics based 3D programs). 

I have to say I don't understand the current lego culture. When I was a kid, toys were to be played, not to be admired. That was especially true with building toys. You build something (usually in 5 minutes) and you immediately destroy it to build something else. Most of the creation left much to imagination. I remember I had a Lego set (or something similar), maybe 20-40 pieces in total, half to the time I couldn't find most of it and you can be sure that it went through everything. It had a mud guard for a car which doubled as the shovel for a bulldozer. Now, I have trouble building a bulldozer using 1500 pieces because I don't have that specialized shovel piece that doesn't look like a flipped mud guard.

I am new to Lego, but I do have transformers. It struck me recently that I haven't transformed most of them in ages and some of them are MIB or even MISB. Hopefully, I will be able to play with Lego more and find that child again. 

I didn't really have a goal when I bought the set other than for my kid a few years down the road (not for flipping since I don't sell my toys). I guess now my goal is to build the sets without buying the sets using generic pieces bought bulk. And hopefully, once I learned enough, I would be able to build things better than (or at least different from) the sets. Unfortunately, 1500 pieces is nothing. So looking forward for the next sale.  

Well, if you're content with that, you're certainly the one who is the arbiter of your own dreams. Why does anything have value? Why do people like sports? Watching grown men get paid millions of dollars to play a game that I played as a boy and having to pay extra for that privilege doesn't appeal to me. Paying a lot of extra money for fermented grape juice is not my thing. I have a car, so getting a fancy one just for the sake of having a car that goes much faster than I can legally drive is also beyond me. If I say that there's a difference between seeing the pieces physically lock together and experimenting with them in person is better than a computer program, that's of course my opinion. You say that the computer program is as good if not better, ok too. There's a reason why you hire someone to build a house who has built a house instead of just used CAD to design them.

If all you want is value per piece, and you want that mudflap/shovel thing, you probably won't get it in the basic brick box. As I suggested, buy bulk used lots. Although it might not appeal to you to have all those dust catchers around,

It also sounds like you have lost the thrill with your previous collection. I'm certainly not going to try to indoctrinate you into the "LEGO cult." I'm not even sure you wanted an explanation as to why there's value. It seems more like a questioning of pursuing childish things. I wish you good fortune on your journey of discovery.

[gregpj]

48 minutes ago, wgemini said:

I disagree about the technique part. Lego digital designer and other CAD tools allow me to build anything with any pieces, so I can learn all the techniques using free online instructions for the sets and MOC plans. There are certainly a lot to learn, but real bricks are not required except maybe for some fine motor skills and some physics (which lego or third party developers will hopefully solve via physics based 3D programs). 

I have to say I don't understand the current lego culture. When I was a kid, toys were to be played, not to be admired. That was especially true with building toys. You build something (usually in 5 minutes) and you immediately destroy it to build something else. Most of the creation left much to imagination. I remember I had a Lego set (or something similar), maybe 20-40 pieces in total, half to the time I couldn't find most of it and you can be sure that it went through everything. It had a mud guard for a car which doubled as the shovel for a bulldozer. Now, I have trouble building a bulldozer using 1500 pieces because I don't have that specialized shovel piece that doesn't look like a flipped mud guard.

I am new to Lego, but I do have transformers. It struck me recently that I haven't transformed most of them in ages and some of them are MIB or even MISB. Hopefully, I will be able to play with Lego more and find that child again. 

I didn't really have a goal when I bought the set other than for my kid a few years down the road (not for flipping since I don't sell my toys). I guess now my goal is to build the sets without buying the sets using generic pieces bought bulk. And hopefully, once I learned enough, I would be able to build things better than (or at least different from) the sets. Unfortunately, 1500 pieces is nothing. So looking forward for the next sale.  

 

 

 

 

I don't know what you're talking about that toys were not to be admired.... When I was not playing with my Transformers and LEGO you can be sure they were sitting on my bookshelf proudly displayed and proudly admired.

If I only took 5 minutes to build something out of random bricks, I'd probably destroy it too.

[TargetZero]

1 hour ago, wgemini said:

I disagree about the technique part. Lego digital designer and other CAD tools allow me to build anything with any pieces, so I can learn all the techniques using free online instructions for the sets and MOC plans. There are certainly a lot to learn, but real bricks are not required except maybe for some fine motor skills and some physics (which lego or third party developers will hopefully solve via physics based 3D programs). 

I have to say I don't understand the current lego culture. When I was a kid, toys were to be played, not to be admired. That was especially true with building toys. You build something (usually in 5 minutes) and you immediately destroy it to build something else. Most of the creation left much to imagination. I remember I had a Lego set (or something similar), maybe 20-40 pieces in total, half to the time I couldn't find most of it and you can be sure that it went through everything. It had a mud guard for a car which doubled as the shovel for a bulldozer. Now, I have trouble building a bulldozer using 1500 pieces because I don't have that specialized shovel piece that doesn't look like a flipped mud guard.

I am new to Lego, but I do have transformers. It struck me recently that I haven't transformed most of them in ages and some of them are MIB or even MISB. Hopefully, I will be able to play with Lego more and find that child again. 

I didn't really have a goal when I bought the set other than for my kid a few years down the road (not for flipping since I don't sell my toys). I guess now my goal is to build the sets without buying the sets using generic pieces bought bulk. And hopefully, once I learned enough, I would be able to build things better than (or at least different from) the sets. Unfortunately, 1500 pieces is nothing. So looking forward for the next sale.  

 

 

 

 

Well.... don't think you are a trully fan... with all I've read... buying 10697.......... usually buy this becasue I want more bricks.

but....   it cost what it cost, and waiting for a 2-3 cent deal.... on black friday.... don't think you appreciate the thing like you should.... 5min build??? what about week builds? and just the thinking of it....   like other says, you don't know much about it and technic

[legone3]

It's always helpful to remember history: Peter Schiff's speech at a mortgage banker's conference back in 2006, before the real estate bubble bursted:

 

[JRandall]

11 hours ago, legone3 said:

It's always helpful to remember history: Peter Schiff's speech at a mortgage banker's conference back in 2006, before the real estate bubble bursted:

There is no LEGO bubble, there are hundreds of thousands of more buyers each year and also a thousand or so more sellers.. For people who are willing to sell overseas there are unlimited buyers as those foreign buyers start to understand how to use Ebay and want to collect and display these sets. But more people are getting on Ebay and Amazon every year wanting to collect this valuable toy.  The key is not buying the throwaway sets and themes and making sure to get the ones that people will always want.  Toys seem to be one of the few items that can greatly increase in the long term if it was built with quality and character, while at the same time not taking any upkeep the preserve it(unlike cars/wine/art).  What you had on BP 10-20 years ago was a few hundred people around the country buying everything wholesale buy the truckload with no competition.  This small group was getting all the business from those who wanted retired sets. In the last 7 years hundreds of more investors have trickled into the game and in the last 2 years thousands have started to join the speculation game. LOL, more than 2 THOUSAND people have joined this website in the last week alone.  These people don't have any of the current retiring sets and will be buying aftermarket or stocking up on whatever looks good.  There are tons of baby-boomers with money sitting into accounts looking for a store of value, and I'm sure at least a few dozen if not a few hundred of them when reading these articles will go online or to stores and buy several thousand dollars worth of random LEGO sets. LEGO has also in the last few years started to produce 10X the number of sets to make as much money as possible at the expense of the quality and creativity of the brand.  Whether it ends well depends upon the leadership at the top and how much they care about total income long term vs sustaining the brand into the 22nd Century.

 

Peter doesn't realize that the Chinese could never survive on their own just producing for themselves.  They don't have the agricultural land space to sustain their overgrown populations' food requirements.  They're already shipping their people to work in other countries because they don't have enough employment. They must rely on trade to buy the goods from the U.S. and other developed countries in order to improve the quality of life for all Chinese because it will be another 50 years before they are even starting to modernize like Japan and America. They are behind in medicine, infrastructure, agriculture, and art.  They do not have enough creativity to innovate in a way that will make them competitive due to centuries of communist and nationalist indoctrination. They've produced a handful of great entrepreneurs like LiKaching and Jack Ma, but those are very few and far between. And they even come to America to study and have access to incredible labor policies and pricing. China will always be relying on other modern industrialized countries for the importing of need based goods because their population is not sustainable with what they are able to do in the limited land-space they posses.  Their is basically an unwritten understanding that we'll take care of China with food, medicine, building materials, and technological advancement while they will continue to build the material junk that meets our wants and makes our lives more comfortable, and maybe pick up some of our debt.  It's a win-win situation for both countries.

[GiliusThunderhead]

1 hour ago, JRandall said:

more than 2 THOUSAND people have joined this website in the last week alone. 

OK maybe the answer is I cant but is there a way to see the number of members over the last year?  Or even how you know how many joined last week?

Wait a min... i found it.  Site stats.  Surprisingly in the obvious place to look

Edited December 31, 2015 by Lego_Yoda
Found my own answer.