KShine Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 13 minutes ago, mauro23 said: Not valid for older stuff, sets like MF, TM, ET will always stay expensive. But you forget one important thing - there are to many sets at one time at the market, so that every set cannot be horded by everybody. So there will be still sets which will be forgotten until they become retired... Even the most ignored set is hoarded by more people nowadays than the most popular ones were horded by years ago. There are even investors whose angle is to look to buy the crap sets (to avoid competition), but from the look of many listings everyone seems to be jumping on the crap bandwagon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
citymorgue Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 This is one thing I think should be a cautionary tale. As some have said, yes people will wash out over time, but there will always be fresh blood getting into the market to try to make a quick buck. So those people that washed out will be replaced by new people, and thus, the process starts all over again. It's crazy how quickly this has escalated to the point all you big investors are seriously freaking out. I'm not trying to make light of it, I'm being serious and it's dangerous for everyone honestly. You have to think that there have been 50,000+ people registered here. Imagine the tens of thousands of people that don't know about this site or ghost here and you never hear about. It adds up to a huge flood of extra sets being stashed away to either be flipped or hoarded. And if Lego starts to re-produce sets after a good few years, it's only going to be more difficult, because it's just going to take that much longer to go through all those lower margin sets first. I don't think the end of the world is coming as far as Lego investing, but man, it seems like it's heading to a famine stage in life and not so much feasting. This is partly why I'm glad I'm only collecting and not trying to invest because I just really can't afford to keep my money tied up like that. I remember getting out of magic the gathering, I got rid of a lot of cards for a good bit of profit, but only because they were some of the first cards ever produced and there were only so many made back then. Just like now, as with Lego, Magic produces so many of these cards, sometimes in the millions, that hardly anything is worth any money because there is just such a huge number of them. It seems like it's going to be like this with Lego for a while. They are so mass produced, that these days of triple, quadruple the price is going to be few and far between. I honestly believe, that as long as Lego continues to grow like it is, this trend will not stop for the foreseeable future. I think in order for this to be like the golden years, either Lego needs to fall on their face, and/or, significantly reduce production times for sets. This most likely won't happen as long as Lego keeps up the way they have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Bubble burst time comes when number of genuine buyers for an item / number of sellers = < X. The problem is we don´t know the value of X (it could also be different for each set) but there is a growing feeling that we are getting close to discovering it. Relying on the naive buying habits of new investors to pass on old unsold stock is not a sustainable way of selling so it´s no wonder some old hands here have been jettisoning their least worthy items as no one wants to be standing up without a chair when the music stops. Provided this happens in an orderly fashion, the market will still have years of potential left in it but the moment everyone heads for the exits at once, it is doomed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I can't decide if 1) Willy veteran resellers are trying to scare away fresh meat or 2) The bubble cometh As far as "number of resellers increasing," what did you think would happen? Gold rushes have always looked the same throughout history. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mauro23 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 But you guys forget one important thing. When there are to less buyers for sets then for he next sets reseller will buy less sets and LEGO will reduce the production figures for the next sets and the game will start from scratch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 6 minutes ago, mauro23 said: But you guys forget one important thing. When there are to less buyers for sets then for he next sets reseller will buy less sets and LEGO will reduce the production figures for the next sets and the game will start from scratch. If there is an orderly decline, yes. If it is a mass stampede, forget it - they won´t be able to react quick enough. Look at how the Jurassic, Exo Suit and RI bubbles started and turn it upside down - they can´t just undo production instantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Citymorgue, your post has quite a bit of truth in it. Lego's is attempting to increase their factory production and reach new markets on a global basis. Right now there are a lot of untapped markets out there, and as their societies become more economically advanced, lego set collecting/building could be a past time for a portion of the population, just like it is today in the western world. As the amount of sets become available to a large portion of the worlds population, i'm sure that will surely create more afols and kids into this hobby, but on the same token it will just increase the amount of sets available to the planet. It will be hard to really call any set "rare" at that point. Personally, I see myself as a collector first, and investor second. But a lot of times, I buy sets knowing that I can eventually sell them and make money, or get my money back on them once either my son, or myself gets bored with them or have moved on. That's why i'm fairly stringent on what my son buys. I do think Emazers is right though, the quick flipping mentality is ultimately what is crushing this. Look at most of the sets being talked about in the bubble thread - Santas Workshop, the SW advent calendar, JW, etc. Most of those are not even retired. Obviously, people have misinterpreted these articles, and this is common with investing. Many don't want to put in the effort to wait. They want their money now. This was the same way it was during the real estate bubble, the same way with the ebbs and tides of stocks, etc. There's definitely going to be ebs and tides in this market too. As long as lego continues to create cool sets, and keeps interest, I think things will be fine, but things like QF'in and even some long term investing on some sets might not be a good bet. But I still think there are some gems out there that will do fine, that is if you are willing to wait and not fall into the "I want my money RIGHT NOW trap, because I heard lego is gold." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 9 minutes ago, biking_tiger said: I can't decide if 1) Willy veteran resellers are trying to scare away fresh meat or 2) The bubble cometh As far as "number of resellers increasing," what did you think would happen? Gold rushes have always looked the same throughout history. 1) A bit of both. Enough are selling junk stock on the cheap for it to be true - it is also responsible to temper the euphoria generated by these ill informed journalists looking for a story. 2) Maybe, maybe not. We have seen mini bubbles in certain items and Themes - when this becomes a widespread thing then it is game over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 6 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: If there is an orderly decline, yes. If it is a mass stampede, forget it - they won´t be able to react quick enough. Look at how the Jurassic, Exo Suit and RI bubbles started and turn it upside down - they can´t just undo production instantly. I'd buy more RI if I had a chance today. It's an easy sell here for 2x + it's original value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mauro23 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Exo Suit bubble - yes. But RI bubble? This set is doing fine, already 2 x MSRP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: 1) A bit of both. Enough are selling junk stock on the cheap for it to be true - it is also responsible to temper the euphoria generated by these ill informed journalists looking for a story. 2) Maybe, maybe not. We have seen mini bubbles in certain items and Themes - when this becomes a widespread thing then it is game over. Once again, is the real state market "game over" at any time? No. Is the stock market game over when it hit's a down cycle? NO! There's definitely points where people can lose their shirts, or earn a lot, but the markets are always moving along in some form. As long as lego doesn't go out of business, there will remain a market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4 minutes ago, fossilrock said: Once again, is the real state market "game over" at any time? No. Is the stock market game over when it hit's a down cycle? NO! There's definitely points where people can lose their shirts, or earn a lot, but the markets are always moving along in some form. As long as lego doesn't go out of business, there will remain a market. If lego goes out of business then we have a scarce commodity - it will take at least a generation to forget about Lego and move on to another toy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 (edited) 12 minutes ago, mauro23 said: Exo Suit bubble - yes. But RI bubble? This set is doing fine, already 2 x MSRP... I suggest reading the complete RI thread from launch till Feb this year - there was definitely a bubble there, right at the beginning, when it was selling for 3xrrp - in part thanks to yet another media article. However, it burst when Lego made a second and third batch and now the market is balancing itself out and gradually absorbing stock once again. This set was hugely hoarded but it was also only available for a very short time and was cheap to buy so people have been patient and are letting things sort themselves out. It also appears that there is genuine demand for the set. Edited November 19, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: If lego goes out of business then we have a scarce commodity - it will take at least a generation to forget about Lego and move on to another toy. You just sidestepped what I said. Lego is far from going out of business, and seems to be doing just fine right now. In fact, it's having the greatest growth spurt it has ever seen in its history right now. So, things could be much much much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 17 minutes ago, biking_tiger said: 1) Willy veteran resellers are trying to scare away fresh meat Like anyone is going to listen to what I say anyway I do not know why some would spend time scaring the new people away. The new people will find out in about 6 months that this is not as easy as a few make it seem to be. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: Like anyone is going to listen to what I say anyway I do not know why some would spend time scaring the new people away. The new people will find out in about 6 months that this is not as easy as a few make it seem to be. It´s better to prevent accidents than having to treat the injured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 7 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: I suggest reading the complete RI thread from launch till Feb this year - there was definitely a bubble there right at the beginning when it was selling for 3xrrp in part thanks to yet another media article but it burst when Lego made a second and third batch and now the market is balancing itself out and gradually absorbing stock once again. This set was hugely hoarded but it was also only available for a very short time and was cheap to buy so people have been patient and are letting things sort themselves out. It also appears that there is genuine demand for the set. Yes... yes... yes. Especially about patience. That's what is lacking in all this. Gold hunters are impatient by nature. Stamina is in short supply. 5 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: Like anyone is going to listen to what I say anyway I do not know why some would spend time scaring the new people away. The new people will find out in about 6 months that this is not as easy as a few make it seem to be. "Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave." - Roy Batty, Bladerunner 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 6 minutes ago, fossilrock said: You just sidestepped what I said. Lego is far from going out of business, and seems to be doing just fine right now. In fact, it's having the greatest growth spurt it has ever seen in its history right now. So, things could be much much much worse. Because I agree with you. For TLG things are just great but for collectible sellers it´s like having a Starbucks on every corner - where is the exclusivity premium if everything is widely available, items take longer to retire and older sets are remade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: 1) it is also responsible to temper the euphoria generated by these ill informed journalists looking for a story. Wall maybe next time the founders of this site do another round of interviews for these ill informed journalists they could inform them better. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 For an accurate story you need objective journalists who can deal with subjective interviewees. The problem then is there is probably not a good story at the end of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcell Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 (edited) 42 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: If there is an orderly decline, yes. If it is a mass stampede, forget it - they won´t be able to react quick enough. Look at how the Jurassic, Exo Suit and RI bubbles started and turn it upside down - they can´t just undo production instantly. RI wasn't a bubble...it was simple market dynamics of supply and demand. When it came out, the demand was so great that it far outstripped supply. Once supply caught up to the demand, the price fell because there were more sellers. I don't recall there being a spike in price of Exo Suit, but if there was, it again was likely supply and demand. Once demand caught up to supply, prices stabilized at MSRP. Edited November 19, 2015 by redcell bad grammar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcell Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 50 minutes ago, fossilrock said: Once again, is the real state market "game over" at any time? No. Is the stock market game over when it hit's a down cycle? NO! There's definitely points where people can lose their shirts, or earn a lot, but the markets are always moving along in some form. As long as lego doesn't go out of business, there will remain a market. Even if it went out of business, the market would still remain. Good post...I still marvel at the people who think that there will be some point in the future when there will be no difference in the pricing of Lego sets on the primary and secondary markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 47 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: It´s better to prevent accidents than having to treat the injured. Making mistakes is a necessary part of learning. There is more than enough information on this site to minimize the damages caused by those mistakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 7 minutes ago, redcell said: Even if it went out of business, the market would still remain. Good post...I still marvel at the people who think that there will be some point in the future when there will be no difference in the pricing of Lego sets on the primary and secondary markets. Yep, kinda like the best time to "invest" in a house or buy real estate is not when the market is at a pinnacle, but when it's at rock bottom. Best time to sell is when you believe it's hit the high point. Lego sets are no different. Now that we are heading into the holiday season, i'm sure many of us are playing our own head games gauging if we should sell off a set, or hold it for another year, because prices may only rise better. Sometimes you are right.. other times, you might wish you sold. Regardless, looking at 2016 sets, I can tell you those in my family are all very much interested in quite a few sets to add to the collection. So, l think until that time comes when nothing is interesting, or there is a quality issue, then things might collapse, but I don't think we have hit that yet on many sets. I do think quick flipping has inflated big bubbles filled with erroneous assumptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
botchy123 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 1 hour ago, mauro23 said: Exo Suit bubble - yes. But RI bubble? This set is doing fine, already 2 x MSRP... It was 2 x RRP a month or so after it was released. Maybe the clever people were those who bought them and sold them and moved on to something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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