10251 - Brick Bank

[Ed Mack]

12 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I agree that we are starting a new cycle. These 2 out of turn modular retirements and the Movie should get a few people going again. We have also seen a number of other D2cs with short runs, like Minecraft 21137 and that there have been more retirements than new D2c´s for 2 years running.

It´s bad news for those who went all in on PR´s but there is certainly potential for these sets to do well. The fact that sets like 42064 Ocean Explorer went completely under the radar and are already at 2x RRP suggest Lego investing still has legs.

I recall someone saying to buy this set.  I don't know.  Maybe not....

[asharerin]

16 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I agree that we are starting a new cycle. These 2 out of turn modular retirements and the Movie should get a few people going again. We have also seen a number of other D2cs with short runs, like Minecraft 21137 and that there have been more retirements than new D2c´s for 2 years running.

It´s bad news for those who went all in on PR´s but there is certainly potential for these sets to do well. The fact that sets like 42064 Ocean Explorer went completely under the radar and are already at 2x RRP suggest Lego investing still has legs.

May be a bit more challenging the next 3-4 years. Equities are now in a confirmed bear market, inflation is rearing its ugly head while Trump is pressuring the Fed to stop raising rates to try and stave off the mother of all crashes until after the 2020 election. Housing is beginning its tumble. The euro experiment looks to be ending badly. Things have been rosy the past 10 years for discretionary spending but we are going to see real pain in 12-18 months the likes of which we may have to go back to the late 70s and early 80s to see. Lots of questions and unknowns heading our way which won't make for a good environment for people spending money they don't have on plastic bricks. Sorry to be a downer but it is looking incredibly bad. Stay careful this one is going to hurt. 

[dennugsmello]

4 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I recall someone saying to buy this set.  I don't know.  Maybe not....

I bought a bunch strictly on your word. Also the look of the set didn't hurt.

Thanks!

[Ed Mack]

Just now, asharerin said:

May be a bit more challenging the next 3-4 years. Equities are now in a confirmed bear market, inflation is rearing its ugly head while Trump is pressuring the Fed to stop raising rates to try and stave off the mother of all crashes until after the 2020 election. Housing is beginning its tumble. The euro experiment looks to be ending badly. Things have been rosy the past 10 years for discretionary spending but we are going to see real pain in 12-18 months the likes of which we may have to go back to the late 70s and early 80s to see. Lots of questions and unknowns heading our way which won't make for a good environment for people spending money they don't have on plastic bricks. Sorry to be a downer but it is looking incredibly bad. Stay careful this one is going to hurt. 

With all due respect...and I mean that...The best years of LEGO investing and reselling were right in the middle of the last "great" recession.  Do we have to go over all of this again?  LOL

[Captain_chaos]

25 minutes ago, Val-E said:

The fact that sets like 42064 Ocean Explorer went completely under the radar and are already at 2x RRP suggest Lego investing still has legs.

This set is haunting me already. I earmarked them, and saw them recently on IWOOT for £50. I left them, thinking that a larger discount was just around the corner.

[Val-E]

41 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I recall someone saying to buy this set.  I don't know.  Maybe not....

And I recall trying to shut them up about it.

[Frank Brickowski]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

I recall someone saying to buy this set.  I don't know.  Maybe not....

But what is so attractive about this set? Just because it is a ship? But then again it is a Technic ship. I still don't really get it.

[ichiroll]

1 hour ago, asharerin said:

May be a bit more challenging the next 3-4 years. Equities are now in a confirmed bear market, inflation is rearing its ugly head while Trump is pressuring the Fed to stop raising rates to try and stave off the mother of all crashes until after the 2020 election. Housing is beginning its tumble. The euro experiment looks to be ending badly. Things have been rosy the past 10 years for discretionary spending but we are going to see real pain in 12-18 months the likes of which we may have to go back to the late 70s and early 80s to see. Lots of questions and unknowns heading our way which won't make for a good environment for people spending money they don't have on plastic bricks. Sorry to be a downer but it is looking incredibly bad. Stay careful this one is going to hurt. 

 

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

With all due respect...and I mean that...The best years of LEGO investing and reselling were right in the middle of the last "great" recession.  Do we have to go over all of this again?  LOL

hoping any recession that comes will thin out the horde who is looking to flip any and everything that pops up on SD.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

57 minutes ago, ichiroll said:

 

hoping any recession that comes will thin out the horde who is looking to flip any and everything that pops up on SD.

I agree that the general marketplace as a whole needs recessions/corrections to prevent rampant proliferation of crappy stores/sellers...it's like the world has become a tourist trap where quality in product and service is not appreciated...just foot traffic and lowest denominator of buyer (and thus seller)

[SpaceFan9]

1 hour ago, ichiroll said:

hoping any recession that comes will thin out the horde

 

The last go 'round, a bunch of folks lost their full-time jobs and turned to QFLL to help make ends meet.  I guess we'll see what happens this time.

[Ed Mack]

The issue is when other investments are looking weak, people look elsewhere to put their money. That’s good and bad for this business. It pumped it up for awhile, then eventually hurt it. The secondary market has recovered and is quietly solid IMO, but people will find their way to reselling LEGO once again if the stock market continues to tank.

[crayxlp]

On 12/15/2018 at 2:21 PM, Val-E said:

Yes, the tags have not helped matters but a couple of days is nothing compared to the Snowspeeder or Batcave, which were tagged for months.

The important thing is stock dried up fast on both modulars an even if it is in the hands of resellers, plenty real buyers will have missed the boat too.

Which do you prefer, a reasoably hoarded modular that people actually want or a Joker Manor?

Joker Manor for sure - it has a roller coaster around it for one thing.. 

[Val-E]

6 hours ago, crayxlp said:

Joker Manor for sure - it has a roller coaster around it for one thing.. 

I reckon the Friends rollercoaster will be worth more than Joker Manor by end of 2019.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

14 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I reckon the Friends rollercoaster will be worth more than Joker Manor by end of 2019.

I agree. Any large Super Heroes set is a turkey, especially one based on a crap movie. If there's any theme even worse than Star Wars, Super Heroes is in the short list. I doubt that the JM will even reach 1x RRP... ever! The Tumbler didn't and that's a superb set.

[landphieran]

6 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

The issue is when other investments are looking weak, people look elsewhere to put their money. That’s good and bad for this business. It pumped it up for awhile, then eventually hurt it. The secondary market has recovered and is quietly solid IMO, but people will find their way to reselling LEGO once again if the stock market continues to tank.

Good luck getting Lego un-gated on Amazon.

[Frank Brickowski]

9 hours ago, ichiroll said:

 

hoping any recession that comes will thin out the horde who is looking to flip any and everything that pops up on SD.

I guess what would drive LEGO sets' value up most, is a 3rd World War. All it takes is a president unpredictable, powerful and stupid enough to start one out of his mood of the day or to cover up some major mistakes of the past... so, at the moment it looks like a pretty good setup for LEGO investors already.

[dcdfan]

I guess what would drive LEGO sets' value up most, is a 3rd World War. All it takes is a president unpredictable, powerful and stupid enough to start one out of his mood of the day or to cover up some major mistakes of the past... so, at the moment it looks like a pretty good setup for LEGO investors already.

At least we don’t have to worry about that any longer since that nightmare has been gone for 2 years now.

[Frank Brickowski]

23 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

At least we don’t have to worry about that any longer since that nightmare has been gone for 2 years now.

Thanks for the clarification on your mindset.

[Ed Mack]

20 hours ago, Frank Brickowski said:

But what is so attractive about this set? Just because it is a ship? But then again it is a Technic ship. I still don't really get it.

It's an accurate looking Technic ship.  Don't really look like a Technic set at all IMO.  It's different.  

[Val-E]

43 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

It's an accurate looking Technic ship.  Don't really look like a Technic set at all IMO.  It's different.  

Shhhhh!

[waddamon]

On 12/17/2018 at 3:07 PM, asharerin said:

May be a bit more challenging the next 3-4 years. Equities are now in a confirmed bear market, inflation is rearing its ugly head while Trump is pressuring the Fed to stop raising rates to try and stave off the mother of all crashes until after the 2020 election. Housing is beginning its tumble. The euro experiment looks to be ending badly. Things have been rosy the past 10 years for discretionary spending but we are going to see real pain in 12-18 months the likes of which we may have to go back to the late 70s and early 80s to see. Lots of questions and unknowns heading our way which won't make for a good environment for people spending money they don't have on plastic bricks. Sorry to be a downer but it is looking incredibly bad. Stay careful this one is going to hurt. 

I disagree, in that confirmation bias is big right now.  The masses don't see these hits until after they have passed.  This is a very different world than 2001 and 2008.  I have my clients all invested in fully allocated in risk management models.  People that ignored proper risk management will and have been nailed, good discipline, just down 1 or 2%.  That is a who cares.  Most consumers have zero to do with stock markets.  I welcome the volatility, good for buying stuff dirt cheap.  Same for lego, wise allocations, markets have just changed but not gone away.  I am not buying 60-70k per year like I used to. That is more based on other opportunities though.  I love some of this lego opportunity.  I have reached space limitation now.  2019 ill be a net seller for sure, just to clear space and compound the growth.

[crayxlp]

18 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

I agree. Any large Super Heroes set is a turkey, especially one based on a crap movie. If there's any theme even worse than Star Wars, Super Heroes is in the short list. I doubt that the JM will even reach 1x RRP... ever! The Tumbler didn't and that's a superb set.

Im not giving up on mine Manor.. NEVER.. NEVER!! (a popular joke around here lately..  ) 

[kouks]

21 hours ago, Val-E said:

Shhhhh!

I like the ship and I didn't get one.  May have a chance to get a few at RRP.  Debating if there is investment potential there....

[ravenb99]

Joker Manor will do just fine,  along with BB,  DO, OFS,  Ocean Explorer and a few others.  Like Ed said a lot gets through the radar now with so many sets out there.  Short runs, low amounts of sellers and good sales ranks will keep these moving along nicely.

[Ed Mack]

10 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

Joker Manor will do just fine,  along with BB,  DO, OFS,  Ocean Explorer and a few others.  Like Ed said a lot gets through the radar now with so many sets out there.  Short runs, low amounts of sellers and good sales ranks will keep these moving along nicely.

I agree.  Joker Manor is a great set and is even better in person IMO.  Box is friggin impressive.