10251 - Brick Bank

[MrToes16]

I was kind of thinking Brick Bank wasn't on people's minds when retirement status started to come into play. That with the shorter life cycle started to make this a little hotter than typical. 

People hoarded Pet Shop at retirement and long life cycle because they thought Modulars were like buying real estate. Then it crashed and hasn't recovered yet.

People then bought Palace Cinema but felt overly cautious. Better than PS but still hoarded slightly.

This year, people lost faith in Modulars and didn't bother as much. Now they panicked when they saw Brick Bank and Detective's Office both retiring. 

 

If I had to mildly guess, Brick Bank could have a very healthy EOL for a good while. Check back after January to see where the trajectory may go.

If I had to wishfully guess, Brick Bank could revive the love of Modulars and have fantastic returns for a very long time. (Which means next year's modular retirement could go back to be ing over hoarded.)

 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Is there really a horde to offload, though? The ones like us who avoided modulars are now having their periods trying to get some same as with Town Hall back in the day.

I'm think there is as it's been talked about enough recently. The good thing about the Town Hall is that it retired without being tagged, yet we did had a couple of days to clear out John Lewis which I helped with ?

The BB is also as unexclusive as it gets, hence I'm nervous It's also only Sold Out on SaH which means it could come back and a lot of poor sods who sold theirs for >RRP could be faced with returns.

[Val-E]

Yes, the tags have not helped matters but a couple of days is nothing compared to the Snowspeeder or Batcave, which were tagged for months.

The important thing is stock dried up fast on both modulars an even if it is in the hands of resellers, plenty real buyers will have missed the boat too.

Which do you prefer, a reasoably hoarded modular that people actually want or a Joker Manor?

[Val-E]

23 minutes ago, MrToes16 said:

I was kind of thinking Brick Bank wasn't on people's minds when retirement status started to come into play. That with the shorter life cycle started to make this a little hotter than typical. 

People hoarded Pet Shop at retirement and long life cycle because they thought Modulars were like buying real estate. Then it crashed and hasn't recovered yet.

People then bought Palace Cinema but felt overly cautious. Better than PS but still hoarded slightly.

This year, people lost faith in Modulars and didn't bother as much. Now they panicked when they saw Brick Bank and Detective's Office both retiring. 

 

If I had to mildly guess, Brick Bank could have a very healthy EOL for a good while. Check back after January to see where the trajectory may go.

If I had to wishfully guess, Brick Bank could revive the love of Modulars and have fantastic returns for a very long time. (Which means next year's modular retirement could go back to be ing over hoarded.)

 

I´d say the last massively hoarded modular was 10243.

That´s going to be an issue down the line as it is the longest serving modular ever so prices will probably tank, as with Pet Shop.

DO and BB should be the two that perform well and then we start a new cycle of disappointing sets.

[LegoBro]

I recall last year Palace Cinema having a nice post EOL bump. Everyone wanted more and were quickly snagged when they appeared. Fell back to earth a month or two afterwards. I'm sure this is no palace cinema though right

[Captain_chaos]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

Yeah, I have a feeling 10251 will be a Seacow and 10246 will be the sleeper that outguns it. If our polls are more accurate than any recent UK election exit poll, then neither set is massively hoarded. 

I don't think many people had a chance to hoard it once the tags came. The signs were there for Brick Bank though. It was discounted from LEGO Shop at Home for Brick Friday 2017; I remember thinking that probably meant sales were slow and it could retire next year (2018). I'm sure some people acted on this and stored a few. Detective's Office was actually more of a surprise for me - I thought it was every bit as popular as Parisian Restaurant. Disappointing that I missed the JLP sale with them for £108 or so. Anybody who managed to get 5 of them at that price did very well indeed. It doesn't look like they had very many though as they went OOS so quickly.

I'm looking at Town Hall for a reference. Brick Bank is smaller and I presume there are more used copies floating around, so I doubt it will go above £300 for a long time. It may very well not even reach there - plenty of people will be happy selling them for £250 or so. I'd reckon on the same for Detective's Office - I don't think there will be a serious difference between them.

I managed to get 2 Brick Banks and a Detective's Office - all for £120 each after the were tagged. I probably could have bought more if I was more willing to pay RRP from LEGO Shop at Home early on. I just fully expected that there would be a further production run.

[Val-E]

If BB or DO does as well as Fire Brigade, I´ll be more than happy.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

On 12/15/2018 at 4:22 PM, Val-E said:

If BB or DO does as well as Fire Brigade, I´ll be more than happy.

Wishful thinking? Even the Fire Brigade is on its way back down as it was well over £300 a few months back.

[Ed Mack]

To me, just look at the set itself. The Brick Bank is a nice looking build. It is also a bank, which every town needs. People always assume early retirement is about sales. Sometimes it’s about cost of producing a set vs. the return of selling it. I think the Town Hall was an expensive set to produce for LEGO. Maybe the Brick Bank is a similar situation. Decent sales, but it didn’t make LEGO enough money to keep around.

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

To me, just look at the set itself. The Brick Bank is a nice looking build. It is also a bank, which every town needs. People always assume early retirement is about sales. Sometimes it’s about cost of producing a set vs. the return of selling it. I think the Town Hall was an expensive set to produce for LEGO. Maybe the Brick Bank is a similar situation. Decent sales, but it didn’t make LEGO enough money to keep around.

If we assume delayed retirement is about good sales, we can assume that the opposite is also true. Look at 75144 or Batcave as cases in point. They got tagged months before they eventually retired.

Perhaps in cases like Antman, production costs or difficulties have an influence. In this case,  I think sales are closer to the truth. Of course. the post EOL performance could be much better as people held off buying BB thinking they had time.

[marcandre]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

To me, just look at the set itself. The Brick Bank is a nice looking build. It is also a bank, which every town needs. People always assume early retirement is about sales. Sometimes it’s about cost of producing a set vs. the return of selling it. I think the Town Hall was an expensive set to produce for LEGO. Maybe the Brick Bank is a similar situation. Decent sales, but it didn’t make LEGO enough money to keep around.

It was around for nearly 3 years too. Short for a modular but longer than 90% of lego sets. 

It's doubled on amazon and hitting $100 over rrp on ebay. Already a winner. 

[Ed Mack]

I think it’s more complicated with the Brick Bank. Current aftermarket prices tell us there is an interest in this set. The issue nowadays is there are just too many sets to buy. One or two will be ignored and they will be big winners.

[brickology101]

It is a bank guys...buying a bank can only make you money yet alone several banks. Should have seen this coming....daaaa.

[exciter1]

26 minutes ago, marcandre said:

It was around for nearly 3 years too. Short for a modular but longer than 90% of lego sets. 

It's doubled on amazon and hitting $100 over rrp on ebay. Already a winner.  FOR NOW

 

[Captain_chaos]

28 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I think it’s more complicated with the Brick Bank. Current aftermarket prices tell us there is an interest in this set. The issue nowadays is there are just too many sets to buy. One or two will be ignored and they will be big winners.

For me, modulars will always be at the top of the pile in terms of priority. I'm sure many others feel the same way. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

It'll be interesting to see how prices settle down after Xmas. Even though I have none, I still hope that they do well for those that bought them. Still not officially retired so a big risk for those that have already sold them, praying for no returns. The Simpsons House going in/out/in/out/in retirement put me off buying these. Once dead, it should stay dead.

Edited December 17, 2018 by TabbyBoy

[Val-E]

20 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

 

Waiting for a @terrymc4677 post admitting he is the one who has 50 or more units.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Smyths in Farnborough is showing 1 in stock if you're quick. I'm only 2 miles away but, I need to go to the toilet.

[Val-E]

19 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Smyths in Farnborough is showing 1 in stock if you're quick. I'm only 2 miles away but, I need to go to the toilet.

Save your turds for the Joker Manor thread.

I could make a poll for that set and the options list would be a lot shorter.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Val-E

[Captain_chaos]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Waiting for a @terrymc4677 post admitting he is the one who has 50 or more units.

Problem is there is no verification for these numbers, so they could very well be a troll response. 

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, Captain_chaos said:

Problem is there is no verification for these numbers, so they could very well be a troll response. 

Terry only ever buys 54 units of his sets. I figure Joker Manor is his winning horse but I could be wrong.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Terry only ever buys 54 units of his sets. I figure Joker Manor is his winning horse but I could be wrong.

One thing's for sure.... he's bought more than me.

[terrymc4677]

Waiting for a [mention=5366]terrymc4677[/mention] post admitting he is the one who has 50 or more units.

Nope...only 15 BB. Wish it was more. 0 Joker Manors. I learned my lesson on Batman sets after the Steam Roller debacle.

[Ed Mack]

6 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

It'll be interesting to see how prices settle down after Xmas. Even though I have none, I still hope that they do well for those that bought them. Still not officially retired so a big risk for those that have already sold them, praying for no returns. The Simpsons House going in/out/in/out/in retirement put me off buying these. Once dead, it should stay dead.

Prices should remain solid this year for quite some time in the new year IMO.  The LEGO Movie 2 will stimulate sales and interest in the brand once again.  Unlike the other LEGO Movie spinoffs, this one will do well.  There was a shortage of LEGO after the first movie...

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/09/26/lego_shortage_leaves_toy_stores_between_a_block_and_a_hard_place.html

While I am not predicting such drastic shortages, it will be a good time to sell LEGO sets.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

Prices should remain solid this year for quite some time in the new year IMO.  The LEGO Movie 2 will stimulate sales and interest in the brand once again.  Unlike the other LEGO Movie spinoffs, this one will do well.  There was a shortage of LEGO after the first movie...

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/09/26/lego_shortage_leaves_toy_stores_between_a_block_and_a_hard_place.html

While I am not predicting such drastic shortages, it will be a good time to sell LEGO sets.

I agree that we are starting a new cycle. These 2 out of turn modular retirements and the Movie should get a few people going again. We have also seen a number of other D2cs with short runs, like Minecraft 21137 and that there have been more retirements than new D2c´s for 2 years running.

It´s bad news for those who went all in on PR´s but there is certainly potential for these sets to do well. The fact that sets like 42064 Ocean Explorer went completely under the radar and are already at 2x RRP suggest Lego investing still has legs.