Mos_Eisley Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 From Brickset 10185 Green Grocer 3927 people own this set 10211 Grand Emporium 5376 people own this set 10218 Pet Shop 4059 people own this set 10197 Fire Brigade 5366 people own this set My first thoughts about these numbers would be that it doesn't include quantities owned by each person or their condition (i.e. MISB). Most of the Green Grocers are likely unsealed and I would guess that not many people have more than one sealed Green Grocer, although definitely far more than have multiple Cafe Corners still sealed. After seeing the success of CC and GG, everyone is probably buying one Fire Brigade to open and one to keep sealed at the very least. New investors see the oldest available modular and want to get in on the fun. I bet hundreds of people have multiples of them saved. If I would've known what was coming with regard to the sudden increase in LEGO investors, I certainly would have bought far less than I have of both the Death Star and Fire Brigade. However, I think both of these sets are great and will eventually pay off. It's just going to take a really long time to sell through the hundreds of copies that have to get dumped and opened before big appreciation can start to happen. I have no plan on selling anything for a really long time so I don't mind the wait, but I think a lot of people are going to be quickly turned off when some of these sets take a long time to appreciate to a level that makes it worthwhile. Quote
Fcbarcelona101 Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 I fit that particular criteria. I am relatively new to Lego investing and have a small amount of funds right now to buy sets, so personally I am focusing on some other sets that may not be as popular as FB because of that you just mentioned, I know a lot of people here are buying that one. Don't get me wrong, if I had more money I would definitely buy a couple, but I don't really plan to at this time. I am sure there are more people like me out there. This set will continue to be popular anyway, but from my point of view it won't be an abnormal return like some other modulars. Quote
cobi Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 Well, I can tell you I have the Fire Brigade, Pet Shop, Grand Emporium and Town Hall. Town Hall is new, so maybe that is why the owners are less. When I started investing in these sets, I wanted the Green Grocer and Corner Cafe and Carousel because they looked so cool. They were out of my price range, but were also all EOL sets. I guess we really can't predict what will happen in the years to come. It's like the stock market... A gamble! Quote
HellsAttack Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 Slightly off topic. I sold my Lego Star Wars collection a few years back and basically made my investment back. ~3 years later, I'm really digging the Creator sets after buying the 4 Winter Village sets and am beginning to invest. So far, I've got 4 Fire Brigades and a Minecraft. I bought 2 Haunted Houses today. I feel with the recent Fire Brigade sale and Minecraft stocks replenished, I may have jumped in at the wrong time. Do you think the Haunted Houses were a wise move? Should I buy Apple Tree Houses? Stores are running out and eBay prices are rising. I've got plenty of cool, dry space to store these for years above the expansion my family added last year. Quote
cobi Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 Who really knows. I will offer my opinion and that is all it is. The Haunted House I personally think is a great investment. Remember it is different from the other modules, as it opens, almost as a doll house. The one I built my grandkinds love to play with because of the way it opens. I am going to invest in a least one more. I also have the winter village collection, which I absolutley love because I can build what I call "Old fashion winter town". Again who knows about these seasonal ones. Do people really only get excited about these around the holiday's? If so remember that is when everyone is most vulnerable because they are excited about the upcoming holiday. Lego has started selling the winter cottage again for $99.99 which it what it was aroung the holidays. Not sure why they have re introduced since Christamas Quote
Rich B Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 I fit that particular criteria. I am relatively new to Lego investing and have a small amount of funds right now to buy sets, so personally I am focusing on some other sets that may not be as popular as FB because of that you just mentioned, I know a lot of people here are buying that one. Don't get me wrong, if I had more money I would definitely buy a couple, but I don't really plan to at this time. I am sure there are more people like me out there. This set will continue to be popular anyway, but from my point of view it won't be an abnormal return like some other modulars. You have the right idea in my opinion! Buying sets that aren't as popular or that aren't discussed among people often (also known as under the radar sets) are some of the best investment winners. More people need to think outside the box like you are when investing in Lego, rather than going out and buying 5 Fire Brigades and 2 Death Stars as their first 7 investments. Quote
Legodog Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 Maybe there is something to be said about the price of the sets too. In my opinion the more expensive the set the less investors there are going to be. I only say this because we have a lot of new investors "testing the waters" right now and I don't see them jumping on those really expensive sets. They are going to be cautions and buy sets $120 and below maybe? I was when I first started. Just a thought. Quote
Mos_Eisley Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 Yes, there are definitely a lot of Death Stars being saved, but compared to sets like the Fire Brigade, there are likely far less. People can maybe grab one extra one to save, but most people can't afford or have no desire to buy several Death Stars to hold onto. Quote
Fcbarcelona101 Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 Maybe there is something to be said about the price of the sets too. In my opinion the more expensive the set the less investors there are going to be. I only say this because we have a lot of new investors "testing the waters" right now and I don't see them jumping on those really expensive sets. They are going to be cautions and buy sets $120 and below maybe? I was when I first started. Just a thought. That's also a very good point. New investors probably want to be careful and go with sets that are not so expensive so they lose less money if they end up giving up or the sets are just not as popular as expected. Quote
JLouie Posted January 25, 2013 Posted January 25, 2013 well it looks like its back on sale on amazon @ $119. http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Creator-Fire-Brigade-10197/dp/B002O064J0/ref=pd_sim_t_3 Quote
Legodog Posted January 26, 2013 Posted January 26, 2013 well it looks like its back on sale on amazon @ $119. http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Creator-Fire-Brigade-10197/dp/B002O064J0/ref=pd_sim_t_3 Full price didn't last long. This is one of the longest periods where I have seen a set remain on sale at Amazon. Not sure what that means. Quote
legopocalypse Posted January 26, 2013 Posted January 26, 2013 I'm trying to figure it out too. My hunch is its the next Modular to go EOL as it's the oldest one and is not mentioned on the new Cinema Palace package/advertising. I have 2 and have debated buying a couple more but am just not sure. $119.00 is a great price and one would think it should be around a $200-$250 piece, if not more once EOL ? Quote
LEGO Oleg Posted January 26, 2013 Posted January 26, 2013 I will go with FB double the MSRP price in 2-3 years or even sooner. Don't worry, investors Supply AND demand works together.....I am not sure, may be even GE first goes EOL. :-) Quote
cflannagan Posted January 31, 2013 Posted January 31, 2013 And the $119 price on Amazon.com is back again. http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Creator-Fire-Brigade-10197/dp/B002O064J0/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1359675113&sr=8-1&keywords=fire+brigade+lego The constant persistence of seeing this set at 21% off, makes me think I should avoid buying this set. I'm sure it will make profits post-EOL, but not as much as other sets I bought. Quote
Snowcrash Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 Everyone's hoping for a kill shot with these modulars, 1,000%+ returns which are probably not realistic. My guess is a year after FB and GE both go EOL the investing community will have a more realistc sense of how modulars will perform now that word is out about them. I'm sure anyone who bought these sets below MSRP will make a tidy profit, just not to the level of someone sitting on a Green Grocer or Cafe Corner. Quote
cvail8 Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 Interestingly, the Haunted House is still only at 1,674. Haunted House just came out a few months ago, and was out of stock for a time. I'm sure the numbers will come up soon, especially with it being on Amazon and the double points promo in March. Quote
Darth Lego Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 Haunted House just came out a few months ago, and was out of stock for a time. I'm sure the numbers will come up soon, especially with it being on Amazon and the double points promo in March. I agree it will increase. It's such a great set. Quote
Snowcrash Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 It doesn't look like Haunted House has been on sale yet. Will be very interesting to see how that number picks up the first time its available for 10% or more off. Quote
cobi Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 The Haunted House is an awesome set. So different from the other modulars as it opens. I am waiting to pick up at least 2 more. Do have Fire Brigade for investment, but concern that the market will be saturated. Quote
stephen_rockefeller Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 concern that the market will be saturated. you and every other person on this planet!!! Quote
Darth Lego Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 you and every other person on this planet!!! That is one of the biggest concerns for a Lego investor. Supply and demand. Quote
cobi Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 Well, maybe better luck with the Grand Emporium. I'll take it a little slower next time. Quote
stephen_rockefeller Posted February 3, 2013 Posted February 3, 2013 I'm afraid the same fate awaits the GE.......I just don't see anymore GG or CCs in any of the modulars. Quote
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