pharmjod Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 11 minutes ago, Loghamel said: I'm sorry, but 8092 is a set that is based off a crappy movie (albeit Star Wars) and is one of hundreds of Star Wars sets that can be purchased. 75920 is one of FIVE (5) sets from a $1B+ movie that kids have loved. It may have 'lingered' on the shelf for the first couple of months, but for the US, it has flown off the shelves at a velocity approaching Superman. And the thing about the 5 JW sets is that kids don't have to know anything about the movie to want them; Dinos + LEGOs will always be popular. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm hoping 100% of all other LEGO investors agree with you on this set and refuse to buy any at retail. If this gets the 'Retired' tag in the US before the listed February date, I'll buy all I can at that price. Notice I said I won't be buying any at MORE than MSRP anytime soon. I'm not disagreeing with anyone that the set is a pretty good bet at MSRP. This will continue to hold true though IF AND ONLY IF Wal-Mart actually quits stocking sometime in the not too distant future. If Wal-Mart requests for LEGO to keep making this set for them and it stays in stores for several years, that will have a negative impact on the investment prospects long term. Obviously this is just my opinion. Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 10 minutes ago, pharmjod said: Notice I said I won't be buying any at MORE than MSRP anytime soon. I'm not disagreeing with anyone that the set is a pretty good bet at MSRP. This will continue to hold true though IF AND ONLY IF Wal-Mart actually quits stocking sometime in the not too distant future. If Wal-Mart requests for LEGO to keep making this set for them and it stays in stores for several years, that will have a negative impact on the investment prospects long term. Obviously this is just my opinion. Agreed. Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 10 minutes ago, pharmjod said: Notice I said I won't be buying any at MORE than MSRP anytime soon. I'm not disagreeing with anyone that the set is a pretty good bet at MSRP. This will continue to hold true though IF AND ONLY IF Wal-Mart actually quits stocking sometime in the not too distant future. If Wal-Mart requests for LEGO to keep making this set for them and it stays in stores for several years, that will have a negative impact on the investment prospects long term. Obviously this is just my opinion. I'm too new at this game to know, but did LEGO keep producing 8092 for WM or was WM just shipping from regional warehouses to stores that ordered quantities? Intuitively, it makes no sense for TLG to keep producing a set for ANY retailer if they have the retired tag put on a set. By its very definition, Retired would imply TLG is no longer producing the set. If a set is popular enough for a retailer to request more be made, why would TLG put a retired tag on it and not sell it themselves? For example, WM asks TLG to produce 8,000 sets, or enough to put 2 in almost every store. Why wouldn't TLG just produce 9,000, sell 1,000 on their site and ship the other 8,0000? Just doesn't make sense. But if there are examples out there, I neither can argue with the theory or deny it's a possibility for 75920. Quote
fossilrock Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 I'm definitely not buying anymore of these either, even though it's nice to see the retirement tag. I also would highly doubt this stays around much longer and is not going to be like the Landspeeder. As stated many times in this thread, and now sort of confirmed with the EU retirement tag, this theme more than likely has a limited production run due to the licensing agreement. This is more than likely not some 2 year theme that will remain into 2017. They'll probably produce them in limited batches up to a certain point early next year, and retire the theme by spring.. Regardless with how overly hoarded these have become, I don't expect steller returns for quite some time. These have become just as bad as Santas Workshop and the Advent Calendar. Regardless, hoarde away. Quote
skanks Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 1 hour ago, Tom J said: anyone seen any in UK on the shelves? Not for quite some time. Smyths Toys reckon they are getting another delivery around the 20th November to distribute to stores but I was sceptical of this even before today's news. Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 So a wildly popular set from a wildly popular movie has a, let's say, 8 month production life. Even if 90% were hoarded, what set would you buy right now, or next month or 3 months from now, with the same capitol, at whatever discounts you can have, that will beat this set come May 2016? August 2016? December 2016? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just asking what you're forecasting. Also, I think it will be fun to come back to some of these threads in 6 months to look at everyone's opinions. Quote
Tom J Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 9 minutes ago, skanks said: Not for quite some time. Smyths Toys reckon they are getting another delivery around the 20th November to distribute to stores but I was sceptical of this even before today's news. the other sets are showing on their website as those dates but not this one Quote
skanks Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 My bad, was looking at the wrong Raptor set. This would suggest that this is the only set from the range retiring so far. Maybe this one has outsold the others by far. Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 4 minutes ago, skanks said: My bad, was looking at the wrong Raptor set. This would suggest that this is the only set from the range retiring so far. Maybe this one has outsold the others by far. Or was an exclusive to one retailer in the US. Quote
fossilrock Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 12 minutes ago, Loghamel said: So a wildly popular set from a wildly popular movie has a, let's say, 8 month production life. Even if 90% were hoarded, what set would you buy right now, or next month or 3 months from now, with the same capitol, at whatever discounts you can have, that will beat this set come May 2016? August 2016? December 2016? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just asking what you're forecasting. Also, I think it will be fun to come back to some of these threads in 6 months to look at everyone's opinions. There's quite a few.. but i'm glad so many are just fixated on the same 4 or 5 sets. Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 5 minutes ago, fossilrock said: There's quite a few.. but i'm glad so many are just fixated on the same 4 or 5 sets. And I'm glad some people see a set that is 8 months old, not retired, already 2x MSRP a month and a half before Christmas as a non-starter investment-wise. With strategies such as that, it only makes it that much easier to succeed at this game. Quote
fossilrock Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 None of these have gone over 2x. I've been waiting for that to happen for quite some time. I used to watch JW like a hawk, but I stopped bothering over the last few weeks, because prices have sort of plateaued, and have started to slowly decline on some of these.. The closest they got to 2x was back in July, and that wasn't 2x profit, that was just straight 2x from RRP - and they never hit that level, unless people did creative bundles. These have been mostly around 30% RRP. While that's decent, i've come to the conclusion there is a microbubble that has formed here too. Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 7 minutes ago, fossilrock said: None of these have gone over 2x. I've been waiting for that to happen for quite some time. I used to watch JW like a hawk, but I stopped bothering over the last few weeks, because prices have sort of plateaued, and have started to slowly decline on some of these.. The closest they got to 2x was back in July, and that wasn't 2x profit, that was just straight 2x from RRP - and they never hit that level, unless people did creative bundles. These have been mostly around 30% RRP. While that's decent, i've come to the conclusion there is a microbubble that has formed here too. What's the RRP of 75920? Quote
ISO8T0 Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 (edited) no kidding. been like that for a while too. Nice work Walmart. so much for your slogan. which site is WM monitoring to come up with that one? Edited November 11, 2015 by pstebbing Quote
fossilrock Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 Currently the Buy box on amazon is 72.89, the lower end is 67.40. I always like to use the lower end as the metric, because that's where anyone can place their bet. In the buy box, 1 person gets it out of hundreds. Regardless, I just think the bubble is formed on QFin'. I think these still have great potential down the line, and especially when JW2 hits theaters. That's my plan, anyway. Quote
dcdfan Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 no kidding. been like that for a while too. Nice work Walmart. so much for your slogan. which site is WM monitoring to come up with that one? The seller isn't Walmart. The seller is Toywiz... Quote
Loghamel Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 5 minutes ago, dcdfan said: The seller isn't Walmart. The seller is Toywiz... Good point. Walmart sold out last week at $80 and change. Does that hurt or support my argument? Quote
ISO8T0 Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 6 minutes ago, dcdfan said: The seller isn't walmart... and now for my next trick........... 1 Quote
dcdfan Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 5 minutes ago, dcdfan said: The seller isn't Walmart. The seller is Toywiz... Good point. Walmart sold out last week at $80 and change. Does that hurt or support my argument? Neither. This can be found in some stores. I'm not going to spell it out. Quote
Guest AnnexBrett Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 Lego stores in the GTA is full of these. I have seen 8 on shelves in each... Quote
Pokeshop Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 6 minutes ago, knorbika said: Lego stores in the GTA is full of these. I have seen 8 on shelves in each... Ban Hammer Bait. Quote
Guest AnnexBrett Posted November 11, 2015 Posted November 11, 2015 4 minutes ago, Pokeshop said: Ban Hammer Bait. Did not touch them... I have no trust in JW at all... Quote
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