Trying to make sense of the market

[Brick_BreakDown]

I see some sets going everywhere in price trying to make sense on why? Ive haven't used ebay all that much since 2012-2013~ Ive watched it in 2014

10187 VW Beetle - Ive noticed this set has increased in value I bought mine in christmas of 2013 for $275 USD w/box n instruction Now its selling around $550 has it gone up because of the new car line (VW Camper, Mini Cooper and Coming Ferrari F40)?

10184 This set is very cheap considering what time it was discountinued is it cheap because people forgot about it? when I was in the lego store in 2009 I could only buy one set I debated between 10181 Eiffel Tower, 10185 Green Grocer and 10184 Town Plan thank god I bought the eiffel tower which was on sale at the time.

10177 I bought this for $110 new in 2013. I see it fluctuating in price sometimes $300 used sometimes $200 or $400 why are the prices for this set everywhere? 

10190 Market Street - This was only modular I didnt buy retail sadly... I spent $575 w/box and instruction (the most I ever spent on a lego set) I thought that was a good deal because at the time it was selling 800-950 used with box and instruction. For some reason it isnt as valuable as it used to be Still a used set with box and instruction still decent value 650-750 (Ive saw one recently for 800) but those without box or instruction are like $300-$500 thats cheap. I don't get why its a modular and is extremely rare. 

4954 Model House: This one I don't get at all I bought a new one in Decemeber of 2013 for $180 (which is a steal) It used to sell easily for $500+ up to $600 now It sell around $350 why the sharp drop? Its by far the best looking house in the creator house line. 

Still like always most consistent sets for value 10181, 10182, 10185, 10189, 10196 Other wise most sets increase make sense like 3450 huge increase is because its more in the spot light than 3 or 4 years ago where you could easily pick one up for $500 and new for $1100 which is now used for $1200 and New $2000+

[KShine]

I see some sets going everywhere in price trying to make sense on why? Ive haven't used ebay all that much since 2012-2013~ Ive watched it in 2014

10187 VW Beetle - Ive noticed this set has increased in value I bought mine in christmas of 2013 for $275 USD w/box n instruction Now its selling around $550 has it gone up because of the new car line (VW Camper, Mini Cooper and Coming Ferrari F40)?

10184 This set is very cheap considering what time it was discountinued is it cheap because people forgot about it? when I was in the lego store in 2009 I could only buy one set I debated between 10181 Eiffel Tower, 10185 Green Grocer and 10184 Town Plan thank god I bought the eiffel tower which was on sale at the time.

10177 I bought this for $110 new in 2013. I see it fluctuating in price sometimes $300 used sometimes $200 or $400 why are the prices for this set everywhere? 

10190 Market Street - This was only modular I didnt buy retail sadly... I spent $575 w/box and instruction (the most I ever spent on a lego set) I thought that was a good deal because at the time it was selling 800-950 used with box and instruction. For some reason it isnt as valuable as it used to be Still a used set with box and instruction still decent value 650-750 (Ive saw one recently for 800) but those without box or instruction are like $300-$500 thats cheap. I don't get why its a modular and is extremely rare. 

4954 Model House: This one I don't get at all I bought a new one in Decemeber of 2013 for $180 (which is a steal) It used to sell easily for $500+ up to $600 now It sell around $350 why the sharp drop? Its by far the best looking house in the creator house line. 

Still like always most consistent sets for value 10181, 10182, 10185, 10189, 10196 Other wise most sets increase make sense like 3450 huge increase is because its more in the spot light than 3 or 4 years ago where you could easily pick one up for $500 and new for $1100 which is now used for $1200 and New $2000+

There are always some legit reasons for the drops (skyrocketing prices are usually a bit more hard to justify).

Here are some for the ones you mentioned:

​10187 - Yes, the 10187 prices really started moving when the Camper came out. There were probably more people who wanted this set after the Camper came out than wanted it during its retail availability.

10184 - The Modular Town Hall, and Cinema sets have made this once seemingly amazing set seem much less so. There would likely be a gas station modular as well, but the environmentalists may have killed that possibility.

10190 - The most rare piece (5 Dk Blue arch) was made available in the 10235 set (which immediately gave the set an $80-$100 haircut). Plus, it is a bit ugly, and lacks the official modular stamp.

4954 - Since 2007 Lego has continued to produce many Houses and Modulars that far exceed what this set had to offer - In 2007 it was incredible, but today - not so much.

[Jeff Mack]

Kshine's points are all great.  This is what makes the LEGO market interesting. Just like any other market, sets can plateau at a certain point or even drop if similar replacements come out.  A lot of people will be waiting to see what happens with Star Wars sets as the new movies and sets come out.  Does the Death Star finally retire, will the #10179 skyrocket or crash and burn.  Don't know yet, but a lot of sets could be affected.

[tacsniper]

When will we see what other new SW sets are?

[Jeff Mack]

I am sure that we will learn about a lot of the sets by end of summer

[Brick_BreakDown]

There are always some legit reasons for the drops (skyrocketing prices are usually a bit more hard to justify).

Here are some for the ones you mentioned:

​10187 - Yes, the 10187 prices really started moving when the Camper came out. There were probably more people who wanted this set after the Camper came out than wanted it during its retail availability.

10184 - The Modular Town Hall, and Cinema sets have made this once seemingly amazing set seem much less so. There would likely be a gas station modular as well, but the environmentalists may have killed that possibility.

10190 - The most rare piece (5 Dk Blue arch) was made available in the 10235 set (which immediately gave the set an $80-$100 haircut). Plus, it is a bit ugly, and lacks the official modular stamp.

4954 - Since 2007 Lego has continued to produce many Houses and Modulars that far exceed what this set had to offer - In 2007 it was incredible, but today - not so much.

​Thanks that point with 10190 makes a lot of sense still don't get 4954 I have all the house its got the best exterior I can understand its lack of interior but most afols wont mind that. Also noticed the slight increase of 6754 which has grown more than I thought. 

Do you think that 4957 ferris wheel well lose value with the new 10247 ferris wheel coming out ATM its selling Used $170-200 new $300-370 (sometimes up to $400). In my opinion it looks more basic but overall better than the new one. I say that because I don't like the colour pattern and hate that the branches reach out of the circle. But the new one has far more features and is actually minifigure scale. 

[MartinP]

Do you think that 4957 ferris wheel well lose value with the new 10247 ferris wheel coming out ATM its selling Used $170-200 new $300-370 (sometimes up to $400). In my opinion it looks more basic but overall better than the new one. I say that because I don't like the colour pattern and hate that the branches reach out of the circle. But the new one has far more features and is actually minifigure scale. 

​IMO, I think that the 4957 Ferris Wheel will lose a little value due to the newer ferris wheel, but there are very few older ferris wheels available at any given time. I think that there is around 20 available worldwide from Bricklink and eBay at the moment. Due to this lack of availability, I think that the older ferris wheel will retain its value for the most part.

[KShine]

Do you think that 4957 ferris wheel well lose value with the new 10247 ferris wheel coming out ATM its selling Used $170-200 new $300-370 (sometimes up to $400). In my opinion it looks more basic but overall better than the new one. I say that because I don't like the colour pattern and hate that the branches reach out of the circle. But the new one has far more features and is actually minifigure scale. 

​There have been a few opportunities to get the 10247 at a lower price, as some sellers always look to move an old version before the new one becomes available.

My impression was that after they released images/info about the new one, that seemed to stop a bit. The old one has a lot going for it (power function, etc). Plus, it is more than just a Ferris Wheel (there are 3 cool builds).

I see this as a good opportunity to possibly get some at reasonable prices, as they generally seem to overshoot to the downside (before coming back up a bit).

[Brick_BreakDown]

Any Idea on 10227 I had some high hopes I see its now gone over retail is there anymore potential for this set?

10221 - amazing return 

Is there any sets with potential on the market I bought a pair of 10214 for later. I have some high hope (like $500-$600 a year or two after retirement) How do you think that'll do.

Is it possible for 10182 or 10185 to loss value or well continue to gradually grow into the for see-able future?

[Ed Mack]

The 10184 Town Plan is the set that baffles me.  It is a very unique set that was an Anniversary Edition (50th Anniversary of the LEGO brick).  It had one of a kind collectible gold bricks and an exclusive letter from the owner of the company, Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen.  This is the epitome of a collectible LEGO set in my mind, yet it has been hovering around $400 for a long time.  It is not highly hoarded and is well done in design and has a high playability factor as well.  It might be a sleeper set that explodes in growth one day.  Maybe discussing it will bring more attention to this wonderful collectible LEGO set that is still a bargain in my opinon.

[Brick_BreakDown]

The 10184 Town Plan is the set that baffles me.  It is a very unique set that was an Anniversary Edition (50th Anniversary of the LEGO brick).  It had one of a kind collectible gold bricks and an exclusive letter from the owner of the company, Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen.  This is the epitome of a collectible LEGO set in my mind, yet it has been hovering around $400 for a long time.  It is not highly hoarded and is well done in design and has a high playability factor as well.  It might be a sleeper set that explodes in growth one day.  Maybe discussing it will bring more attention to this wonderful collectible LEGO set that is still a bargain in my opinon.

​Totally agree, I still don't understand why its so cheap its a perfect piece for the collection and its decently rare. When It was available I thought it was the best look set available along side green grocer and cafe corner. 

[KShine]

The 10184 Town Plan is the set that baffles me.  It is a very unique set that was an Anniversary Edition (50th Anniversary of the LEGO brick).  It had one of a kind collectible gold bricks and an exclusive letter from the owner of the company, Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen.  This is the epitome of a collectible LEGO set in my mind, yet it has been hovering around $400 for a long time.  It is not highly hoarded and is well done in design and has a high playability factor as well.  It might be a sleeper set that explodes in growth one day.  Maybe discussing it will bring more attention to this wonderful collectible LEGO set that is still a bargain in my opinon.

​No doubt that the Town Hall & Cinema Modular's have hurt this one - It seemed to suffer with each of those releases (especially the cinema).

[Ensche]

Any Idea on 10227 I had some high hopes I see its now gone over retail is there anymore potential for this set?

    [...]

​This set (at least in the US) still suffers from the $99 fire sale when a lot of BP members and other resellers in all probability jumped on this train.

But there is "a new hope" for this set (and a lot of others based on the SW theme)... the upcoming SW movie!