Longest running set(s) and untimely EOLs

[Brickarmor]

I have two questions I'd like some help answering. I ran some searches but didn't turn up anything. 1. What is the set which has had the longest production run? Many people now seem aghast that MMV and DS (to say nothing yet of GE and FB) are still with us, so I'd like to know what the precedents are, if any. 2. Last year, Nov and Dec specifically, there was a whirlwind of speculation about which sets were going to be done for. So far it looks like only two of the many (major) contenders have entered the Lego afterlife. So my second question is: if a set makes it through the holiday frenzy and returns in bulk for the new year, is it likely going to be produced for the entire year? What are the chances of its going EOL without some special occasion sale/discount? Is it common for sets to disappear midyear without a whimper or a bang, or are the end-of-the-year fireworks the norm? I know for the most part predictions are glutted with terms like "usually" and "typically," but if anyone knows the answer to #1 or could even provide some historical comparisons for #2 it would be helpful.

[Ed Mack]

I have two questions I'd like some help answering. I ran some searches but didn't turn up anything.

1. What is the set which has had the longest production run? To my knowledge, the 10188 Death Star, but there could be an older set that had a longer run. LEGO might be the only true accurate source for this information. While there might be some AFOLs out there with it recorded somewhere, I am not privy to that data unfortunately. Many people now seem aghast that MMV and DS (to say nothing yet of GE and FB) are still with us, so I'd like to know what the precedents are, if any. It is funny that you mention the AFOLs that inhabit the various LEGO forums are surprised that the Medieval Market Village, Death Star, Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade are still being sold by LEGO, but what a lot of forum members fail to realize is that LEGO is all about making money and will continue to sell these sets until people lose interest. Obviously, they are very popular and continue to sell at a brisk pace or they would be discontinued. LEGO does not worry about the secondary market, even though some LEGO forum members like to think that LEGO bases their decisions on AFOL forum threads. Forum members believe that they speak for the whole community when discussing various topics, yet in actuality, they are a very small % of the market.

2. Last year, Nov and Dec specifically, there was a whirlwind of speculation about which sets were going to be done for. So far it looks like only two of the many (major) contenders have entered the Lego afterlife. So my second question is: if a set makes it through the holiday frenzy and returns in bulk for the new year, is it likely going to be produced for the entire year? What are the chances of its going EOL without some special occasion sale/discount? Is it common for sets to disappear midyear without a whimper or a bang, or are the end-of-the-year fireworks the norm? I know for the most part predictions are glutted with terms like "usually" and "typically," but if anyone knows the answer to #1 or could even provide some historical comparisons for #2 it would be helpful. It is my experience as an avid LEGO investor and collector that you cannot count on any set being produced for a full year or two after its initial release year. I have seen sets discontinued at all times. When LEGO runs out, they will not let you know what their plan is. Usually, sites like Amazon and Ebay still have the sets available after EOL, so there is time to buy one. Also, sales and specials can be found at various times and you have to be vigilant in looking for deals. Toys R Us run their BOGO(Buy One Get One 50% off) at random times, as does Amazon. If there is a particular set you want, scan all the major sites frequently and you will get a deal. I personally bought the 10179 Millennium Falcon for $400 years ago on Amazon, $100 under MSRP, so I know they will discount every set at some time.

Thank you for your quality question. I posted some answers next to your questions. Sorry that I don't have exact information for you, but it is my belief that only LEGO itself has the data you desire.

[Brickarmor]

Appreciate the reply. The first question is kind of a Lego Trivia/Final Jeopardy question. As I try to budget my year, however, the issue of sets' EOL is of utmost importance right now. I was really hoping to hear "Yes, they will usually run all year," but the bitter pill of truth is... well, bad news is better than no news!

[Ed Mack]

Appreciate the reply. The first question is kind of a Lego Trivia/Final Jeopardy question. As I try to budget my year, however, the issue of sets' EOL is of utmost importance right now. I was really hoping to hear "Yes, they will usually run all year," but the bitter pill of truth is... well, bad news is better than no news!

LEGO has a tendency to stop selling older sets after comparable sets are launched. As you mentioned, everyone thought the 10188 Death Star would be discontinued after the 10221 Super Star Destroyer was released, but as we all know, the Death Star is still available from LEGO. A simple tip I go by and I haven't been wrong yet is using the LEGO catalog as a guide to when sets will be discontinued. The LEGO catalogs come out quarterly and if a set is in the catalog, I figure that LEGO is still going to produce that set for the next three months. The 10188 Death Star is still in the most recent catalog. If a set is not in it, my thought is that LEGO will be sending this set to the 'LEGO afterlife' very soon. An example of this would be the Obi-Wan

[Brickarmor]

DS primarily, and since it's in the spring catalog I'm going to assume it will outlast May 4th. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Some others I was considering are not in there, so maybe I ought to plead with the wife a little more desperately. When is the next catalog? June?

[British Builder]

DS primarily, and since it's in the spring catalog I'm going to assume it will outlast May 4th. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Some others I was considering are not in there, so maybe I ought to plead with the wife a little more desperately. When is the next catalog? June?

I think the DS will be around for quite awhile. The set must be selling extremely well for it to last this long. I wonder if the number of DSs in existence will dampen the appreciation after EOL?

[Ed Mack]

I think the DS will be around for quite awhile. The set must be selling extremely well for it to last this long. I wonder if the number of DSs in existence will dampen the appreciation after EOL?I agree. I would be very surprised if the 10188 is discontinued any time soon. If it is discontinued by LEGO, Amazon seems to lag behind and have leftover sets at a fair price, but you have to keep on eye on it daily to make sure you don't miss out.

I also wonder about how quickly the 10188 will appreciate after EOL because of its long production run. Time will tell, but people start to freak out and bid up the sets quickly when an important set like the 10188 is discontinued. They feel like they might not get a chance to get one at a fair price(if they wait for a deal) and just start buying them at whatever the going rate is at the time. Prices of these large LEGO sets appreciate very quickly when people get anxious. LOL

[plasticbrix]

DS primarily, and since it's in the spring catalog I'm going to assume it will outlast May 4th. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Some others I was considering are not in there, so maybe I ought to plead with the wife a little more desperately. When is the next catalog? June?

I just noticed the Fire Brigade is not in the Spring catalog. Might be time to pick one up.

[JimBean4]

I just noticed the Fire Brigade is not in the Spring catalog. Might be time to pick one up.Well, Amazon just got a huge lot of Fire Brigades. If Lego is selling a set well, why would they stop(unless they are stopping a whole theme like POTC or Harry Potter)? All this discussion over the EOL of these sets is a waste of time. Only Lego knows when these sets are getting yanked off the shelves.

[vikingPeg4411]

I just noticed the Fire Brigade is not in the Spring catalog. Might be time to pick one up.Well, Amazon just got a huge lot of Fire Brigades. If Lego is selling a set well, why would they stop(unless they are stopping a whole theme like POTC or Harry Potter)? All this discussion over the EOL of these sets is a waste of time. Only Lego knows when these sets are getting yanked off the shelves.I agree. it is very hard to pin point when a set will be dropped. If you want one, better buy it, then you can rest easy. ;-)

[lazybear]

I just noticed the Fire Brigade is not in the Spring catalog. Might be time to pick one up.Well, Amazon just got a huge lot of Fire Brigades. If Lego is selling a set well, why would they stop(unless they are stopping a whole theme like POTC or Harry Potter)? All this discussion over the EOL of these sets is a waste of time. Only Lego knows when these sets are getting yanked off the shelves.I agree. it is very hard to pin point when a set will be dropped. If you want one, better buy it, then you can rest easy. ;-)

It is very hard to predict which set will be EOL'd as some of the sets have very short shelf life. The catalog is a good tool to check and I sometime check the sales from LEGO Shop at Home but it is not always accurate. I was lucky coz that's how I got the Imperial Flagship right before it discoutinued.

[JesusLovesLegos]

I just noticed the Fire Brigade is not in the Spring catalog. Might be time to pick one up.Well, Amazon just got a huge lot of Fire Brigades. If Lego is selling a set well, why would they stop(unless they are stopping a whole theme like POTC or Harry Potter)? All this discussion over the EOL of these sets is a waste of time. Only Lego knows when these sets are getting yanked off the shelves.I agree. it is very hard to pin point when a set will be dropped. If you want one, better buy it, then you can rest easy. ;-)

It is very hard to predict which set will be EOL'd as some of the sets have very short shelf life. The catalog is a good tool to check and I sometime check the sales from LEGO Shop at Home but it is not always accurate. I was lucky coz that's how I got the Imperial Flagship right before it discoutinued.

Yes, some sets last only one year. A lot of Star Wars sets are like that. One and done.

[MaximusLegous]

I just noticed the Fire Brigade is not in the Spring catalog. Might be time to pick one up.Well, Amazon just got a huge lot of Fire Brigades. If Lego is selling a set well, why would they stop(unless they are stopping a whole theme like POTC or Harry Potter)? All this discussion over the EOL of these sets is a waste of time. Only Lego knows when these sets are getting yanked off the shelves.Amazon might have a large amount of Fire Brigades, but they are way OVERPRICED! They want $200+++ for a set. Lego.com still is selling them for $149.99.

[LEGO Oleg]

.....walmart.com selling FB for just 119.99 for a couple aweeks or so....still in stock. Thats means something!

[TheOrcKing]

.....walmart.com selling FB for just 119.99 for a couple aweeks or so....still in stock. Thats means something!

With the imminent arrival of the "Palace Cinema", I think the "Fire Brigade" has atleast one more good year in it before it finally becomes discontinued. Thanks for pointing out the Wal-Mart price.