10188 - UCS: Death Star

[dcdfan]

I think this will be a good sell Christmas this year, then many years later...

I'm not trying to stir the pot, I just see 10188 more as a long term savings account rather than get rich quick transaction...

Maybe not...You still have months to go before the most hyped movie of all time and the uber popular 10188 has just gone poof.  It just happens to be XMAS as well.  There will be some money to be made for flippers if this set retires in the US now.  

[mfortunek]

I agree. Most resellers here probably spend majority of their capital on $250 or under sets. A few hundred of using hoarding 2-10 sets cant be compared to hundreds of us hoarding 10+ Red5, PS, PC, R2D2 etc.

I think the price of the set supports my point

[Ed Mack]

I'm new to the forums (and this site in general), so indulge me.  

Am I correct that prior to the release of 10188 back in 2008, nobody (not a single one of us) had yet experienced the profiteering opportunities that were forthcoming in Lego investing? (see e.g. 10182 released in 2007, 10185 and 10189 released in 2008, 10196 released in 2009).  

Yes, the 10179 was already out when the Death Star hit shelves, but nobody had flipped one for a profit (any profit worth mentioning).  At least not yet.

So during the massive lifespan of the 10188 (2008 to 2015), we have learned all that we currently know about this "hobby." Yes I called it a hobby; I know there are many who do not pursue this endeavor for recreation or pleasure, but rather as an occupation. I am not among that group, so I'm calling it a hobby.

When the 10188 arrived, we knew nothing (Jon Snow). Nothing of what UCS or exclusives or modulars would come to be, nothing of how to size up a set for investment potential, nothing of what AFOLs would come to want, and nothing of the emergence of future AFOLs and their eventual emergence from the dark ages.  

When the 10188 left us (yesterday) look at all we now know.  Everything that any of us really know about this hobby (there's that word again) has been learned while the Death Star sat there on the shelves, watching us. All we have done, all the sales and massive boons and missed guesses.... it has all occurred as the DS looked on, watching us scramble and lament and speculate and celebrate. Falcons and Carousels and Grocers and Mughal palaces and so much more have all come and gone during the life of the DS.

The 10188 is the only set that has remained available during all this time; it is the only product we have been able to change our minds about (sometimes over and over again, back and forth, yes and no, buy more or abandon what I have). All the while it sat there at $399, any time we wanted it.

How many DS have been sold in the past 28 hours?  Hundreds upon hundreds.  And how many of those have been purchased by someone who didn't know SAH had just flipped it over to "Sold Out?" My guess is about 3 total Death Stars.  Every one of the others that has been purchased since yesterday at dawn was purchased by a person who knew of the 10188's new status at Lego.com.

So what does all this mean?  What's the point, newbie?

The point is that anybody hoarding Death Stars and hoping for massive future profits is going to end up very happy.  Why? Because you now control the entire market. The bloggers on this site probably hold 90% or more of all 10188s purposely being held for future sale.  You command the product, you command the price.  You have formed a monopolistic association.  

But isn't that true of all high-end exclusives that have gone EOL over the past several years?  Yes and no. Not to this extent, not even close. I'd guess 80% of people who bought the 10179 bought it because they thought it was cool as hell. 80% of DS sales have been for future profit.

Therefore, I think the 10188 has the greatest future potential of any Lego set ever produced.  Yes, that includes the 10179.  

So how many do I own in my collection, hoarded away in pristine SAH boxes, all lined up side by side in the storage room?

None. It just looked kinda clunky so I passed.

 

 

 

Thanks for your well written and thoughtful post.  You are no newbie by the way.  LOL.  I've been going back and forth about this set for days.  LEGO gave us an opportunity here and some took advantage of it.  If things remain as is and the 10188 does retire for all practical purposes within the next few weeks, this set will do well...very, very well.  

Why?  Simply, it was DAMN POPULAR BEFORE RETIREMENT, it will be popular after retirement.  This set lasted for years because it was a money maker for LEGO and super popular with LEGO and STAR WARS fans, regardless of the $400 price tag.  New versions will be different enough, with different characters to be a non-factor. Regardless, if the set retires now, people will have at least another year or more to reap the profits from hungry STAR WARS fans who enjoy LEGO bricks.  

[Darth_Raichu]

 

Only a sith deals in absolutes.
 

Absolute awesomeness:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDO2Iackdgc

 

The next Death Star ?

[Miami Bomb Squad]

i'm more skeptical.  This set has been out for 7 years, perhaps 10's of thousands of people and companies (companies that surely have more than a hundred copies) have this stocked for reselling purposes.  We shall see where it all goes.  I've never opened or built this one, but I have seen it in person.  I have on in the closet, where it will remain until I see the new one, then i'll make a decision on what to do with this.  If it eventually goes MF, then great.  We can all dance, but I have my doubts it pans out like some will think.  When you see how low the sales data is for sets like SSD at the inflated reseller prices, it makes me even more skeptical on seeing these sell quickly at those prices.  Some people are going to be sitting on these for a long time to get them to sell at the prices they want to see. 

Due to its long life span, many have already sold or have dropped out of the DS race. 
People that have purchased it early never would have thought it would last 7 years. 

IMO, most of the sets are being held are from individuals, not companies. 
One of the most important aspects of operating a company is Cash Flow.   Companies do not sit on a $400 item and wait for it to retire. 
More than a hundred copies?  (120 x $320 (assuming a 20% Markup) = $38,400 plus storage 
Amazon, Target, TRU, Walmart are the biggest Hoarders.......and look, They have to let it go at msrp.  

 

[Alpinemaps]

 

The point is that anybody hoarding Death Stars and hoping for massive future profits is going to end up very happy.  Why? Because you now control the entire market. The bloggers on this site probably hold 90% or more of all 10188s purposely being held for future sale.  You command the product, you command the price.  You have formed a monopolistic association. 

A monopolistic association that will eat itself.

It's only a monopoly if people want it to be.  You can only control the price, as a collective, if you choose to act as a collective.

However, there will always be a price that is "good enough" for some people.  There will always be someone that will depress the numbers.  Will it happen forever?  No.  Look at the growth of the Grand Carousel or 10179.  But, even there, someone is always at the bottom of the list.  You just have to have enough momentum to encourage the bottom feeders to raise their prices.

[Ag3ntOrang3]

DS already selling at $499 on Amazon. sold the remaining at $499.  only 1 left at that price.

8 sold the past hour or so.

[trekgate502]

Absolute awesomeness:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDO2Iackdgc

 

The next Death Star ?

very good

I started thinking about writing maybe the new death star will look like the one darth maul built but I just couldn't put the right words together.

it must be a possibility.

[Jeff Mack]

DS already selling at $499 on Amazon. sold the remaining at $499.  only 1 left at that price.

8 sold the past hour or so.

So from the 8 that you sold at $499, what do you clear after all the fees (if you don't mind me asking).  

[Bold-Arrow]

Assuming it was bought at Mrsp with not tax and selling Fba : 1$ 

Fbm would be about 12$

 

Edited July 15, 2015 by Bold-Arrow

[mfortunek]

A monopolistic association that will eat itself.

It's only a monopoly if people want it to be.  You can only control the price, as a collective, if you choose to act as a collective.

However, there will always be a price that is "good enough" for some people.  There will always be someone that will depress the numbers.  Will it happen forever?  No.  Look at the growth of the Grand Carousel or 10179.  But, even there, someone is always at the bottom of the list.  You just have to have enough momentum to encourage the bottom feeders to raise their prices.

Absolutely correct.

[zskid00]

I bet they were purchased during a TRU.com BOGO 50% off or maybe sub $300 at B&N last year.

Edited July 15, 2015 by zskid00

[Jeff Mack]

Assuming it was bought at Mrsp with not tax and selling Fba : 1$ 

Fbm would be about 12$

 

So basically +/- $100 profit for selling 8 DS at $499 on Amazon?

If Ag3ntOrang3 is The Purple Llama http://amzn.to/1gCfnv3

They are just offering Free Shipping and not using Amazon, so there could be more profits

Edited July 15, 2015 by Jeff Mack

[fossilrock]

So from the 8 that you sold at $499, what do you clear after all the fees (if you don't mind me asking).  

15% of 500 is 425.00.  Then it depends on their shipping costs and if shipping costs were added.  Considering few states out there are without sales tax, they are more than likely losing money at that price, if bought at RRP.  Considering the size, and price storing this one takes up about 10 standard 39.99 sets like Mystery Machine, Raptor Escape, etc. 

To really make around 100 on this, this needs to go over 630.00, IMO.  And those that bought these on credit cards, let's say at 10.99 % and paid it off over a year will have to sell it in the 700's to net a respectable profit when you weigh in interest rate costs, and then there is taxes on top of it.  And once sets start to near the 2x mark, is when things go slow.  Since July 1st, it looks like only 20 SSD's went over 800 on Ebay (basically 2x).  Imagine how many resellers out there are sitting on SSD, and then realize only 20 sold in a 2 week period this month on a very popular site.   I'm guessing thousands of DS went over the last two days, but those same thousand being resold are going to take a LOT of time.  

Edited July 15, 2015 by fossilrock

[mudcatsfan]

I bet they were purchased during a TRU.com BOGO 50% off or maybe sub $300 at B&N last year.

Ding.

B&N had a 30% off kids club coupon, plus 10% member, plus 15% (sometimes more) gift card options. Plus potentially any CC bonuses, or tax free options means lots of Death Stars were purchased fairly recently (12-15 months ago) for as little as $214.19 each

[trekgate502]

15% of 500 is 425.00.  Then it depends on their shipping costs and if shipping costs were added.  Considering few states out there are without sales tax, they are more than likely losing money at that price, if bought at RRP.  Considering the size, and price storing this one takes up about 10 standard 39.99 sets like Mystery Machine, Raptor Escape, etc. 
To really make around 100 on this, this needs to go over 630.00, IMO.  And those that bought these on credit cards, let's say at 10.99 % and paid it off over a year will have to sell it in the 700's to net a respectable profit when you weigh in interest rate costs, and then there is taxes on top of it.  And once sets start to near the 2x mark, is when things go slow.  Since July 1st, it looks like only 20 SSD's went over 800 on Ebay (basically 2x).  Imagine how many resellers out there are sitting on SSD, and then realize only 20 sold in a 2 week period this month on a very popular site.   I'm guessing thousands of DS went over the last two days, but those same thousand being resold are going to take a LOT of time.  

Target only had 100 left yesterday afternoon. That is not an approximate.

Maybe 50,000 did not fly out the door in the last 48 hours.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

Many that are selling now for sub $600 are Lego employees.  

[Jeff Mack]

15% of 500 is 425.00.  Then it depends on their shipping costs and if shipping costs were added.  Considering few states out there are without sales tax, they are more than likely losing money at that price, if bought at RRP.  Considering the size, and price storing this one takes up about 10 standard 39.99 sets like Mystery Machine, Raptor Escape, etc. 
To really make around 100 on this, this needs to go over 630.00, IMO.  And those that bought these on credit cards, let's say at 10.99 % and paid it off over a year will have to sell it in the 700's to net a respectable profit when you weigh in interest rate costs, and then there is taxes on top of it.  And once sets start to near the 2x mark, is when things go slow.  Since July 1st, it looks like only 20 SSD's went over 800 on Ebay (basically 2x).  Imagine how many resellers out there are sitting on SSD, and then realize only 20 sold in a 2 week period this month on a very popular site.   I'm guessing thousands of DS went over the last two days, but those same thousand being resold are going to take a LOT of time.  

Right, I guess I just don't get it.  I don't know why anyone would be excited about selling it for $499, especially on Amazon.  At least they got their money back

[Bold-Arrow]

They probably bought it cheaper than Mrsp. With some BN magic and target vodoo you could have them at the 300-350 range . 

[Pseudoty]

Right, I guess I just don't get it.  I don't know why anyone would be excited about selling it for $499, especially on Amazon.  At least they got their money back

Because buy in was $200-$300 for the past 3 years.

[ravenb99]

who pays retail??

[Darth_Raichu]

Right, I guess I just don't get it.  I don't know why anyone would be excited about selling it for $499, especially on Amazon.  At least they got their money back

 

Ding.

B&N had a 30% off kids club coupon, plus 10% member, plus 15% (sometimes more) gift card options. Plus potentially any CC bonuses, or tax free options means lots of Death Stars were purchased fairly recently (12-15 months ago) for as little as $214.19 each

Double their money in 18 months. ie. They took 8*$190 profit and moved on

[micbelt]

I have only been in the lego game for about 7 months and only have 4 death stars,  but even I have found ways to get the 4 for $250 on average.

[fossilrock]

Target only had 100 left yesterday afternoon. That is not an approximate.

Maybe 50,000 did not fly out the door in the last 48 hours.

Point is that all that were snatched up yesterday, will take years to resell online at 2x.

who pays retail??

It's pretty darn hard to land 8 DS's at B&N using the tricks described by some here.  Unless, of course you have multiple accounts and somewhat cheated their system and broke their membership agreement. 

[Darth_Raichu]

It's pretty darn hard to land 8 DS's at B&N using the tricks described by some here.  Unless, of course you have multiple accounts and somewhat cheated their system and broke their membership agreement. 

Back then DS & R2 were not excluded from BN coupons.  BN added exclusion 1 month or 2 later, presumably in response to people using this particular technique