10188 - UCS: Death Star

[tacsniper]

But the question is, regardless if you are big or small, is it a smart long term business practice?  Just because some might have sold 3 or 4 sets at 4x RRP, does it mean you can sell 60 of them at that price?  How about 5000 people all trying to do the same.  I think eventually there could be a big time bubble formed with this practice.  I'm not so sold that everything is awesome here.  I really go back and forth with sets like DS and EV.  Part of me says, buy more.  While the more cautious side says "Stop"… it's going to get remade into something better, and this set might crash down a few pegs.  We've seen that happen with other sets like Jabbas Sail Barge, numerous AT-AT's, x-wings, etc.  What if 10 years from now they are on their third DS remake.  Will this one still have the demand?  Tough to say, and it depends on how many are in the hands of investors.  If it's somewhat scarce, then yes, I think the potential is great on these sets, but if not, then I think what's newer and better will always win out. 

As always diversify your investment... stock a few scaled to your portfolio

Is anyone holding back to see what Prime Day has to offer before pulling the trigger?

Edited July 14, 2015 by tacsniper

[GhostDad]

Yes, DS is a playset.  So is Hogwarts.  And honestly, there have been what, four of those?  Add all those years of availability together and it's going to be pretty much the same as DS.  There's nothing wrong with playsets.

The bubble is real, unfortunately.  Though that may be the wrong name for it.  I don't think it will 'pop', but I do think returns will continue to weaken.  I've bought much less this year than last, maybe a reduction of 60% or so, and I'm comfortable with that.  So my inventory is falling in value by a couple thousand a month (due to sales, not a collapse in prices).  I'm not sure I'd be advising anyone to get into the game this late, unless they have ready access to some physical big box stores that have solid clearances.  Sadly, I do not.

[Val-E]

Agreed…  But, I think it may be at least until January 2017 before we see another ISD, or AT-AT.

This is the ongoing problem with the "bubble" that many of us do believe is forming.  And why you need to step back and be skeptical about going "all in" on many exclusives.  There seems to be many on this site that try and stock 30 to 50 exclusives.  Take your average lego store.  How many months do you think it takes for them to move 30 to 50 DS's at a single store?  Add in higher inflated prices on that set, and the curve to sell them becomes much longer.. Some might be sitting on those for a long time to sell them at 800 to 900.00.  
But even Red 5 seems vastly over hoarded.  If there are two sets on this site that seem stocked to death it's Red Five and Pet Shop.  People might have their assets tied up for a long time in some of these..  It's tough to say though.  There are 7 billion people on the planet, so there's a lot of potential customers out there.

I totally agree with you.

There seem to be a number of resale price points that the vast majority of people will not pass to get the set they are missing. SW playsets like MF, ISD, AT AT are not likely to go for much more than 200-225 as there is always a remake around to cap prices and a lot of them hoarded. Low buy-in is critical to making money on these as long term hoard does not work.

200-250 Exclusives like R2, EV, R5 may well double in price some day but the majority of sales will be done at around the 300-350 point and then things will tail off.

The really big sets such as SSD and DS will probably pass double RRP if Lego popularity doesn´t wante over the next 5 years  but 1.5 RRRP would seem to be a prudent get-out point especially for DS.

Modulars are an exception as we are looking at 140-190 RRP and the sky is the limit in terms of future value. However we have seen that the supposedly rare TH has now plateued at 2.5 RRP. Ones that go on the market for less will sell quickly but most buyers see that as the limit - for now.

[trekgate502]

FYI

R2 MSRP was $180

The cheapest on eBay is over double that and the movie hype has not hit yet.

it will do fine...

though Europe may be lower

Edited July 14, 2015 by trekgate502

[Val-E]

FYI

R2 MSRP was $180

The cheapest on eBay is over double that and the movie hype has not hit yet.

it will do fine...

though Europe may be lower

I stand corrected. It may also be worth considering that the North American market does produce better short term gains on Exclusives but that prices tend to even out against Europe after the first year or so. In any case, the 250 and 500 price points seem to be a reality, after which, sales are much reduced. We could also add a 100 point for IDEAS sets.

[ZULU]

I think the post misses one point: 

how will you invest only 10.000e in all the excusives and become selfsustained? 

That's absurd. The working capital needs are far higher. Not even mentioning selfsustainment. That's wishful thinking. 

Do the maths. Check set velicity and come back with a realistic plan

 

I think the post misses one point: 

how will you invest only 10.000e in all the excusives and become selfsustained? 

That's absurd. The working capital needs are far higher. Not even mentioning selfsustainment. That's wishful thinking. 

Do the maths. Check set velicity and come back with a realistic plan

 

[redcell]

I totally agree with you.

There seem to be a number of resale price points that the vast majority of people will not pass to get the set they are missing. SW playsets like MF, ISD, AT AT are not likely to go for much more than 200-225 as there is always a remake around to cap prices and a lot of them hoarded. Low buy-in is critical to making money on these as long term hoard does not work.

200-250 Exclusives like R2, EV, R5 may well double in price some day but the majority of sales will be done at around the 300-350 point and then things will tail off.

The really big sets such as SSD and DS will probably pass double RRP if Lego popularity doesn´t wante over the next 5 years  but 1.5 RRRP would seem to be a prudent get-out point especially for DS.

Modulars are an exception as we are looking at 140-190 RRP and the sky is the limit in terms of future value. However we have seen that the supposedly rare TH has now plateued at 2.5 RRP. Ones that go on the market for less will sell quickly but most buyers see that as the limit - for now.

This is a nice theory, but is not supported by reality. A spot check of prices on Amazon reveals that sets you believe should be selling for $200 to $225 (i.e., older version s of the MF and ISD) are, in fact, selling for twice that amount. I know that it is common wisdom around here that a remake destroys prices for earlier models, but reality doesn't bear that out. Another example...the current MTT is available for $90 and the previous version is selling for $600. Another...current AT-AT is routinely available for around $100 and previous versions are available for between $275 and $575. To be sure, there are examples of sets where newer models are more expensive than previous ones, but it is a mistake to conclude that the only thing driving the imbalance in pricing is the release date.

[Ed Mack]

This is a nice theory, but is not supported by reality. A spot check of prices on Amazon reveals that sets you believe should be selling for $200 to $225 (i.e., older version s of the MF and ISD) are, in fact, selling for twice that amount. I know that it is common wisdom around here that a remake destroys prices for earlier models, but reality doesn't bear that out. Another example...the current MTT is available for $90 and the previous version is selling for $600. Another...current AT-AT is routinely available for around $100 and previous versions are available for between $275 and $575. To be sure, there are examples of sets where newer models are more expensive than previous ones, but it is a mistake to conclude that the only thing driving the imbalance in pricing is the release date.

I agree. Sets sell for high prices because they are great sets. Remakes, if poorly done, will not out gain the classic sets they replaced. Older classic sets will hold their values until their ceiling is reached. Sets like the current AT-AT are poor choices. Only at nice discounts are they worth investing in. There are multiple other STAR WARS set that deserve your money, but a set like the AT-AT will be replaced soon with something much better.

 

 However we have seen that the supposedly rare TH has now plateued at 2.5 RRP.

It took the Cafe Corner years to reach current levels.  Sets take a breather at times.   

[Pseudoty]

For folks who bought a DS at retail a minimum 30% profit on eBay will command a price tag of $650 + shipping.

Good point but most smart investors have not paid retail for this set. Over the years there have been many avenues to acquire the DS at a good discount. This will make it even harder for those buying at MSRP to turn a 30% profit as some can dump at $600 and still make a nice chunk of change after shipping. 

As for the DS remake in 2016 who is to say it is not just a Microfighter series 3. 

 

So what Ed M is saying here is the SW UCS set this fall will be a new motorized AT-AT

[Val-E]

This is a nice theory, but is not supported by reality. A spot check of prices on Amazon reveals that sets you believe should be selling for $200 to $225 (i.e., older version s of the MF and ISD) are, in fact, selling for twice that amount. I know that it is common wisdom around here that a remake destroys prices for earlier models, but reality doesn't bear that out. Another example...the current MTT is available for $90 and the previous version is selling for $600. Another...current AT-AT is routinely available for around $100 and previous versions are available for between $275 and $575. To be sure, there are examples of sets where newer models are more expensive than previous ones, but it is a mistake to conclude that the only thing driving the imbalance in pricing is the release date.

The problem is that Amazon prices don´t mean much in this context because they are only prices, not sales. It´s what the buyer is prepared to spend not what the seller thinks their item is worth that counts.

If we go to ebay or bricklink, where actual sales stats are available, the figures I mentioned do hold true, in Euros at least.

In the case of DS, I have a hard time believing it will sell consistenty for above 1000 USD or EUROS within the next 5-7 years, remake or not due to the years it has been made and the sheer quantity of stock that will be available. Also, in 5 year´s time SW new film frenzy should have died down somewhat.

 

[marcandre]

Good point but most smart investors have not paid retail for this set. Over the years there have been many avenues to acquire the DS at a good discount. This will make it even harder for those buying at MSRP to turn a 30% profit as some can dump at $600 and still make a nice chunk of change after shipping.

 

Right on here. No one should be paying retail. At the very least use a red card + discounted gift card at Target for 12% off. 

[dcdfan]

The problem is that Amazon prices don´t mean much in this context because they are only prices, not sales. It´s what the buyer is prepared to spend not what the seller thinks their item is worth that counts.

If we go to ebay or bricklink, where actual sales stats are available, the figures I mentioned do hold true, in Euros at least.

In the case of DS, I have a hard time believing it will sell consistenty for above 1000 USD or EUROS within the next 5-7 years, remake or not due to the years it has been made and the sheer quantity of stock that will be available. Also, in 5 year´s time SW new film frenzy should have died down somewhat.

 

I believe someone mentioned their plans are a new movie every couple of years so I don't think it'll die down in 5 years...

[Val-E]

I agree. Sets sell for high prices because they are great sets. Remakes, if poorly done, will not out gain the classic sets they replaced. Older classic sets will hold their values until their ceiling is reached. Sets like the current AT-AT are poor choices. Only at nice discounts are they worth investing in. There are multiple other STAR WARS set that deserve your money, but a set like the AT-AT will be replaced soon with something much better.

 

It took the Cafe Corner years to reach current levels.  Sets take a breather at times.   

That is clear but it is also important to know why they take breathers. Breather 1 seems to be after 4-6 months EOL when resellers feel it is no longer profitable to buy them up any more and turn a profit. Breather 2 can come when there is confirmation of a remake e.g. 7965. The next breathers come when buyers draw a line at what they can afford to pay for the item or all the buyers who missed it have got one - the frequency and rate of these breathers will depend on supply and demand for each set as until new dark age AFOL´s come in there is an impasse.. In the current market of mass hoarding of just about every large set but also a lot of interest in the brand and more AFOLs than ever, it is going to be interesting to see how often these breathers last.

 

I believe someone mentioned their plans are a new movie every couple of years so I don't think it'll die down in 5 years...

Star Wars fatigue is a very real possibility. How many films and spin offs do we really need so close together?

If barrel scraping on a Hobbit scale is the on the menu (and with Disney it will be) then we need to be prudent about how that can affect things too.

[jay4e]

 

Star Wars fatigue is a very real possibility. How many films and spin offs do we really need so close together?

If barrel scraping on a Hobbit scale is the on the menu (and with Disney it will be) then we need to be prudent about how that can affect things too.

Its at least 1 a year for the next 4+ years.  But from what we have seen so far, its not likely they are going to screw it up like they did with the prequels.  But even if the movies are bad OT is still OT and SW exclusives are still SW exclusives.  

There is plenty of money to be made, but we need to take off the rose colored glasses because not every exclusives is going to double in 6 months.

[exciter1]

I think Super Hero fatigue would hit before Star Wars fatigue.

[redcell]

The problem is that Amazon prices don´t mean much in this context because they are only prices, not sales. It´s what the buyer is prepared to spend not what the seller thinks their item is worth that counts.

If we go to ebay or bricklink, where actual sales stats are available, the figures I mentioned do hold true, in Euros at least.

In the case of DS, I have a hard time believing it will sell consistenty for above 1000 USD or EUROS within the next 5-7 years, remake or not due to the years it has been made and the sheer quantity of stock that will be available. Also, in 5 year´s time SW new film frenzy should have died down somewhat.

 

Just because you can't see the data on actual sales doesn't mean that they aren't occurring at those prices.  Looking at the sales rankings for the previous versions of the At-At, it's clear that they aren't selling like hotcakes, but they are selling at the list prices.  

I've changed my tune on the DS.  I used to be in line with your thinking, but I now believe that it will easily be above $1000 within 5-7 years.  If the Death Star plays as significant a role in the next star wars movie, it will be a hot commodity.

I agree. Sets sell for high prices because they are great sets. Remakes, if poorly done, will not out gain the classic sets they replaced. Older classic sets will hold their values until their ceiling is reached. Sets like the current AT-AT are poor choices. Only at nice discounts are they worth investing in. There are multiple other STAR WARS set that deserve your money, but a set like the AT-AT will be replaced soon with something much better.

 

It took the Cafe Corner years to reach current levels.  Sets take a breather at times.   

I disagree with you on the At-At...regardless of design, an At-At is an At-At and will always rank as one of the most iconic vehicles in the SW universe regardless of anything else.  The current model may not skyrocket in value after EOL, but it will be a solid performer for years to come and is a safe bet in my book.

[Mathew]

The AT-AT is pretty nice display piece and will probably be the last system scale version we see for a very long time.  If they release a UCS version it will likely cost at least $300 and may not be that much more impressive.

[zskid00]

but a set like the AT-AT will be replaced soon with something much better.

 

Hmmmm.  Perhaps a subtle hint that a UCS AT-AT is coming soon?  Or maybe I'm just fishing here.

Edited July 14, 2015 by zskid00

[cladner]

Hmmmm.  Perhaps a subtle hint that a UCS AT-AT is coming soon?  Or maybe I'm just fishing here.

he's been dropping hint about a UCS AT-AT now for some time or at least since the end of last month.

 

Edited July 14, 2015 by cladner

[meowsmeowsmeows]

Death Star now Sold Out:

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Death-Star-10188?fromListing=listing

 

[oneknightr]

Death Star now Sold Out:

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Death-Star-10188?fromListing=listing

 

Just saw this for myself. Has this set ever been marked Sold Out at LEGO Shop at Home? If not, could this be it????

Amazon has a limit of 2 per order. Has it always been like that?

Edited July 14, 2015 by oneknightr

[dcdfan]

Just saw this for myself. Has this set ever been marked Sold Out at LEGO Shop at Home? If not, could this be it?????

They're redesigning the box...

[Sauromosis]

And now the time of great panic has begun, as foreseen by Emazers...

They're redesigning the box...

Is that a joke or truth?

[oneknightr]

If it is truly sold out and not coming back, it would be quite fitting like HH last year. People expected it to last until Halloween but it sold out months before. DS retiring months before the new SW movie would be great news for everyone.

[dcdfan]

And now the time of great panic has begun, as foreseen by Emazers...

Is that a joke or truth?

Joke... I think it's done...