10188 - UCS: Death Star

[mudcatsfan]

Here is the thing it all depends on when and if the remake gets here, Christmas and Star Wars mania

Amazon toys & games ranking

Tower Bridge is 9,188
Ewok is 8,482
Cinema Palace is 4,860
Death Star is 1,372
ISD is 1,086
AT AT is 794

To me this says you should be loading up on AT AT, ISD and Death Star (I am on the first 2, have 10 of the DS and not sure if I should stop)

Timing is everything if no new set this Christmas and it is gone then it is gold
If it does not run out of stock and new set is better and arrives while this one is here
I will be happy trying to get break even

Just imagine when fans really start going Star Wars crazy in November and December

Devil's advocate.

What if the buying rank is driven by resellers stocking up and not end consumers true demand?

If so your target list is exactly backwards.

[joch29]

Devil's advocate.

What if the buying rank is driven by resellers stocking up and not end consumers true demand?

If so your target list is exactly backwards.

more likely for the first 3 or 4 that are close to retirement...or have been out over 2 years

[colossus]

Devil's advocate.

What if the buying rank is driven by resellers stocking up and not end consumers true demand?

If so your target list is exactly backwards.

So then I'm good with the garage full of exo-suits?  I knew my dementia would help me someday! Yippee!

[trekgate502]

Devil's advocate.

What if the buying rank is driven by resellers stocking up and not end consumers true demand?

If so your target list is exactly backwards.

If you look at the camel camel camel rank the DS is constantly doing well.  I am buying all of the above but I am focused on those first 3 for a Christmas flip the others for longer term hold.

Worst case my stack of Force FX lightsaber will see me through

[mudcatsfan]

If you look at the camel camel camel rank the DS is constantly doing well.  I am buying all of the above but I am focused on those first 3 for a Christmas flip the others for longer term hold.

Worst case my stack of Force FX lightsaber will see me through

For the record i think you've got the right sets targeted, but i also love some of the less popular ones.

I just like to explore all sides of the potential results 

The AT-AT and ISD seem like no brainers, the DS SHOULD be a no brainer but its' unique life cycle and potential rumors of a replacement make it unprecedentedly risky to me. (that being said, i have a stash :))

Edited July 13, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[Brickson]

Devil's advocate.

What if the buying rank is driven by resellers stocking up and not end consumers true demand?

If so your target list is exactly backwards.

It couldn't be exactly backwards. It could be backwards + skewed (real consumer demand).

However, reseller sales are still sales. In fact, I would still venture there are still resellers (and lots of builders intending to resell) buying some sets above MSRP hoping for a pay off. Plus arbitragers. 

Edited July 13, 2015 by Brickson

[Ed Mack]

 

The AT-AT and ISD seem like no brainers, the DS SHOULD be a no brainer but its' unique life cycle and potential rumors of a replacement make it unprecedentedly risky to me. (that being said, i have a stash :))

Be very careful here.  These sets are prime for remakes...better remakes.  There could be a short term opportunity with thse two sets this Holiday season, but long term, these sets are not worthy.  

[zskid00]

We're equal opportunity around here.  Short term, long term, medium term, QFLL term....whatever it takes.

[meowsmeowsmeows]

Has anything more come out about a new Death Star or other UCS set at SDCC?  Seems like any new Death Star would be significantly different from 10188 to get owners of 10188 to buy the new one.

[MarleyMoose]

I wonder if my drunken Lego contact was right about a coming 10,000 piece set...

[trekgate502]

I wonder if my drunken Lego contact was right about a coming 10,000 piece set...

like a new 10,000 piece $900 UCS MF lol I'll take 3 thanks

[DadsAFOL]

I wonder if my drunken Lego contact was right about a coming 10,000 piece set...

I guess he was right... http://www.thebrickfan.com/lego-legends-of-chima-big-box-competition/

[33Lego]

I guess he was right...

http://www.thebrickfan.com/lego-legends-of-chima-big-box-competition/

like !

[trekgate502]

On Amazon Death Star has gone in a few hours from 1,372 to 853 in toys and from 6 to 3 in its section lol

Maybe I'll join in

[boliramirez]

Well I was two DS's from my target and this was the motive I was waiting for. Ordered one from LEGO Shop at Home by phone early today and one from Amazon.....

[AFOL Pedro]

My LEGO Shop at Home rep told me that they most likely will restock, and that it will retire by the end of this year. lol.

[mudcatsfan]

Be very careful here.  These sets are prime for remakes...better remakes.  There could be a short term opportunity with thse two sets this Holiday season, but long term, these sets are not worthy.  

 

Much appreciated. In retrospect, the current AT-AT and ISD aren't especially 'special' even when compared to their previous incarnations. They could easily be improved upon. I guess i should say that these sets at their currently available 20% + off clearance prices are no-brainers. But not necessarily home runs, and not at full retail.

Edited July 14, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[trekgate502]

Much appreciated. In retrospect, the current AT-AT and ISD aren't especially 'special' even when compared to their previous incarnations. They could easily be improved upon. I guess i should say that these sets at their currently available 20% + off clearance prices are no-brainers. But not necessarily home runs, and not at full retail.

To add on please let no one think I am stockpiling these for long term holds. AT AT ISD 

I am purchasing from Toys R Us with the entire array of credit cards gift cards and coupons applied at a discount heavily below 20% off msrp.

They are super deals at that rate and I am timing to unload them all at Christmas the opportune stock out timing.

[GhostDad]

ISD and AT-AT tend to be remade only every 4-6 years.  It's a completely different situation from X-wings and Falcons, which are almost always in production.  Both current versions are well reviewed and look good assembled.  Other than lacking Tarkin, the new ISD is better than the first version (setting aside price, obviously).

Edit: As for DS, 'call to check availability' used to mean something.  So did 'temporarily out of stock'.  The latter however is used much more loosely these days.  I may wait for 'sold out' to buy DS #18.

Edited July 14, 2015 by GhostDad

[brickology101]

For folks who bought a DS at retail a minimum 30% profit on eBay will command a price tag of $650 + shipping.

$650 is a lot of money for a Lego set, but there are folks out there who are ready to spend that much, and even more on an epic SW Lego set like the DS.

However, how many of these folks are there really out there ? Versus the huge quantity of DS sets that must have been stored for resale since 2008 ? This is what really concerns me with this set.

In addition, I don't think there is a reference from a past Lego set that combined that high of a price with such a long availability at retail. This is uncharted territory.

I think that money right now is better invested in cheaper SW sets like the Red Five or EV.

[pete411]

For folks who bought a DS at retail a minimum 30% profit on eBay will command a price tag of $650 + shipping.

$650 is a lot of money for a Lego set, but there are folks out there who are ready to spend that much, and even more on an epic SW Lego set like the DS.

However, how many of these folks are there really out there ? Versus the huge quantity of DS sets that must have been stored for resale since 2008 ? This is what really concerns me with this set.

In addition, I don't think there is a reference from a past Lego set that combined that high of a price with such a long availability at retail. This is uncharted territory.

I think that money right now is better invested in cheaper SW sets like the Red Five or EV.

Plus we have a remake coming next year. Whether or not this remake is based on Rogue 1 or the OT remains to be seen but this has to play a factor in the resaleability of the Death Star. It's also a large playset that is somewhat geared towards children. The SSD had an exterior and was clearly aimed at the AFOL community. Then again, this just might be the most iconic set ever produced in the entire Lego Star Wars theme.  This one is a head scratcher to me. I'll probably dip my toes in but won't break the bank on it.

[fossilrock]

Be very careful here.  These sets are prime for remakes...better remakes.  There could be a short term opportunity with thse two sets this Holiday season, but long term, these sets are not worthy.  

 

Agreed…  But, I think it may be at least until January 2017 before we see another ISD, or AT-AT.

For folks who bought a DS at retail a minimum 30% profit on eBay will command a price tag of $650 + shipping.

$650 is a lot of money for a Lego set, but there are folks out there who are ready to spend that much, and even more on an epic SW Lego set like the DS.

However, how many of these folks are there really out there ? Versus the huge quantity of DS sets that must have been stored for resale since 2008 ? This is what really concerns me with this set.

In addition, I don't think there is a reference from a past Lego set that combined that high of a price with such a long availability at retail. This is uncharted territory.

I think that money right now is better invested in cheaper SW sets like the Red Five or EV.

This is the ongoing problem with the "bubble" that many of us do believe is forming.  And why you need to step back and be skeptical about going "all in" on many exclusives.  There seems to be many on this site that try and stock 30 to 50 exclusives.  Take your average lego store.  How many months do you think it takes for them to move 30 to 50 DS's at a single store?  Add in higher inflated prices on that set, and the curve to sell them becomes much longer.. Some might be sitting on those for a long time to sell them at 800 to 900.00.  

But even Red 5 seems vastly over hoarded.  If there are two sets on this site that seem stocked to death it's Red Five and Pet Shop.  People might have their assets tied up for a long time in some of these..  It's tough to say though.  There are 7 billion people on the planet, so there's a lot of potential customers out there.

[brickology101]

This is the ongoing problem with the "bubble" that many of us do believe is forming.  And why you need to step back and be skeptical about going "all in" on many exclusives.  There seems to be many on this site that try and stock 30 to 50 exclusives.  Take your average lego store.  How many months do you think it takes for them to move 30 to 50 DS's at a single store?  Add in higher inflated prices on that set, and the curve to sell them becomes much longer.. Some might be sitting on those for a long time to sell them at 800 to 900.00.  
But even Red 5 seems vastly over hoarded.  If there are two sets on this site that seem stocked to death it's Red Five and Pet Shop.  People might have their assets tied up for a long time in some of these..  It's tough to say though.  There are 7 billion people on the planet, so there's a lot of potential customers out there.

Red 5 and PS are also hoarded but their retail price point is lower and they have been available at retail for 2-4 years, not 7 years.

This was really my point. DS is a combination of a high priced set with it being hoarded for so long, which to me, makes it ac risky investment.

[tacsniper]

Red 5 and PS are also hoarded but their retail price point is lower and they have been available at retail for 2-4 years, not 7 years.

This was really my point. DS is a combination of a high priced set with it being hoarded for so long, which to me, makes it ac risky investment.

I think only the real serious investors were mass hoarding the DS over the years. Most of us small fish will probably only stock a few, not 50 of these $500 sets. But most resellers will be more than happy to hoard 50x $200-$250 sets for some reason?

[fossilrock]

I think only the real serious investors were mass hoarding the DS over the years. Most of us small fish will probably only stock a few, not 50 of these $500 sets. But most resellers will be more than happy to hoard 50x $200-$250 sets for some reason?

But the question is, regardless if you are big or small, is it a smart long term business practice?  Just because some might have sold 3 or 4 sets at 4x RRP, does it mean you can sell 60 of them at that price?  How about 5000 people all trying to do the same.  I think eventually there could be a big time bubble formed with this practice.  I'm not so sold that everything is awesome here.  I really go back and forth with sets like DS and EV.  Part of me says, buy more.  While the more cautious side says "Stop"… it's going to get remade into something better, and this set might crash down a few pegs.  We've seen that happen with other sets like Jabbas Sail Barge, numerous AT-AT's, x-wings, etc.  What if 10 years from now they are on their third DS remake.  Will this one still have the demand?  Tough to say, and it depends on how many are in the hands of investors.  If it's somewhat scarce, then yes, I think the potential is great on these sets, but if not, then I think what's newer and better will always win out. 

Edited July 14, 2015 by fossilrock