10188 - UCS: Death Star

[zskid00]

It is a wonderful LEGO set.  It is a value.  It is fun to build and play with.  It displays well.  It could be very profitable. What else more do you want?

​A better place to park my money.  If a re-release is coming that is a playset it will definitely hamper the growth of the 10188.  How much, we have no idea because only one scenario will play out in reality.  

I agree with you though that everyone should own at least one, especially any LEGO Star Wars fan.  

[gbg108]

Personally I cannot imagine new death star... How would it looks like? Another DS I. with open interior, but bigger? No way, the price would be more than 500 usd, which would be really much - I think 10188 is the most expensive lego set ever, and cannot imagine breaking this record with another death star.​

​If 10188 was the most expensive ever and has been selling well for years and year, why is it so hard to imagine they would test the market at a higher price point? 

[KShine]

Any modern day set is going to be quite the improvement over what they had to work with in 2008.

​Many of the recent remakes have shown that this is just not true.

[marcandre]

 I think 10188 is the most expensive lego set ever, and cannot imagine breaking this record with another death star.

 

​UCS Falcon was $500

[Ed Mack]

​A better place to park my money.  If a re-release is coming that is a playset it will definitely hamper the growth of the 10188.  How much, we have no idea because only one scenario will play out in reality.  

I agree with you though that everyone should own at least one, especially any LEGO Star Wars fan.  

​Even if it is a play set, it will have different characters and rooms.  With any $400 set, we are targeting affluent AFOLs, who probably are anal completists like myself and want to own all the important STAR WARS sets.  A new Death Star is better than this one hanging around 5 more years.  

[biking_tiger]

​Yes! I think ego tends to corrupt logic way too often.

​Hence Rule #1.

[Vinetu]

As I write this message you currently have contributed 62 posts (most of which appear to be contained within this thread) and your pal Just2good only just yesterday made his first forum posts. People pass off predictions as facts on a regular basis here, so pardon us for airing some skepticism. There are a lot of people on this site that will consider information supplied when making investment decisions. As you've gone to a lot of effort to defend and promote J2G's prediction, maybe you could care to supply an example or two of previously successful predictions which would make your statements more credible. Forum trust has to be earned.

​First, my participation to this forum exceeds far and wide the discussion on this thread, second, just2good is not my pal. I appreciate his tips and I respect his consistency and manner of communication. Concerning the "number of forum posts" elitism, it is by no means any measure of post quality. I stated at more then one instance that I am very long in the game of collecting and though I am new in investment waters, I have a very good knowledge of SW line evolution and its parameters. I would be interested in reading an opposing argument from someone of my level of SW experience in say other Lego lines...

Back to the topic, it is precisely in the pure interest of people making investment decisions that I do state, loud and clear, that 10188 can be a wonderful bulk of Light Bluish Grey a year from now hoping it would stop a NOVICE investor from splurging 400+ whatever for something that may very well go to Bricklink parts sale in mentioned period. You guys are veterans and if you lose few 100s bucks because of the poor risk analysis, you can absorb it. A newbie who decides to splash his pocket money hoping for some profit on this set may be put off the game permanently (ok, less competition, but that's not truly the intent of this forum, is it? )

As for the j2g successful predictions, forum is Eurobricks and Google is your friend...

Edited May 8, 2015 by Vinetu

[shortyz]

Im going to move mine next christmas, the one thing thats great about a playset is that kids have this on their christmas list, and you know its at the TOP. Parents have the cash and want to please their little devils. If this retires before christmas we are all laughing, i will keep my one death star that is signed by carrie fisher.

[mscheaf]

So if this doesn't retire this year are you and just2good (if that really is him) going to say you were wrong with as much enthusiasm and gusto? Or will you just vanish from this thread like everyone else who made sure fire 100% take it to the bank predictions on the EOL of this set over the last 7 years?

[jaisonline]

please remember to be civil to each other in your posts   predictions, rumors, etc... should all be taken with a grain of salt unless you trust your source. 

yeah, it appears to be "just2good" posting here from eurobricks.

[KShine]

​Back to the topic, it is precisely in the pure interest of people making investment decisions that I do state, loud and clear, that 10188 can be a wonderful bulk of Light Bluish Grey a year from now hoping it would stop a NOVICE investor from splurging 400+ whatever for something that may very well go to Bricklink parts sale in mentioned period. You guys are veterans and if you lose few 100s bucks because of the poor risk analysis, you can absorb it.

​I am pretty sure that ridiculous statements like this are the reason for any harsh responses.

[jaisonline]

we all have the ability to ignore comments that we strongly disagree with or  just leave our heads shaking.

 

[Vinetu]

​I am pretty sure that ridiculous statements like this are the reason for any harsh responses.

​I was trying to make a point, ergo, use of hyperbola. I believe everyone here is adult enough to recognize a second degree. Point about investment potential of 10188 remains though. In. My. Humble. Opinion.

[asharerin]

So if this doesn't retire this year are you and just2good (if that really is him) going to say you were wrong with as much enthusiasm and gusto? Or will you just vanish from this thread like everyone else who made sure fire 100% take it to the bank predictions on the EOL of this set over the last 7 years?

​To be fair J2G did not state 10188 would retire this year, just that the set would be remade in 2016. 1Q 2016 for retirement is more likely than 2015. Not sure it is going to sell out quickly now that the cat has been let out of the bag.

[Follows Closely]

...

As for the j2g successful predictions, forum is Eurobricks and Google is your friend...

​

[mudcatsfan]

But what if it's still in stock by Christmas?  What if it really doesn't go out until early next year?  That's a lot of speculation.  There also will more than likely be 5000 listed during the holidays as people are trying to dump their stock. 

I'd also be skeptical about having a lot tied up in death stars at the moment, unless that person is willing to hold their cards and take a risk that this set will rise even with a new variation of the DS (which does happen and has a history in the lego SW universe).  While I do think there will be a rise in value with this set, I have my doubts it's going to rise very fast and furiously.  At best, people might make 20.00 profit on a DS over the holidays.  Considering the size and how much this set takes up, those that bought 50 or more likely won't lose money, but more than likely won't be making hundreds per set either this holiday season. 

​I understand and agree with much of your skepticism for future profit. Part of that is the cost of selling (fees, ebay, paypal) and shipping (postage, insurance, packaging) a giant set like this. You pretty much need to sell one for $510 to break even if bought at retail.

However to your points about those who bought 50 or more of this item, be sure to check the poll question in this topic. Take note of how many folks have zero of them. In fact, 25% of people who frequent an investing site, AND bothered to click on this topic, AND bothered to vote, have less than 2. I'm sure there are plenty of silent moguls out there, but I also suspect those folks are few and far between.

I also love how so many folks have such strong opinions on this set. Even the naysayers who own none. I think that says quite a bit about its future popularity and notoriety.

Edited May 8, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[fuzzy_bricks]

​To be fair J2G did not state 10188 would retire this year, just that the set would be remade in 2016. 1Q 2016 for retirement is more likely than 2015. Not sure it is going to sell out quickly now that the cat has been let out of the bag.

​IMO, the rumor of a newer and better DS will slow down the selling to resellers as it heads into the holidays and EOL.  I believe that is TLG's goal at least, which could be reason for some of the rumors of a new set.

[vmnlogan]

​...The world is not black and white, folks. Investing is not black and white. Lego need not have a black or white stance on investors...

​Agreed, but I just have to say how tickled I am to find a debate like this on this part of the forums.  People arguing about whether something is a dichotomy or has subtle shading based on complexity in a Star Wars theme forum, which does not have "gray" force users; characters are either classified as Jedi or Sith.

As pointed out in an earlier posting, I doubt TLG cares about resellers for retired products.  I can understand an extremely unfavorable stance on people who buy up all the inventory of current product lines and sell at inflated prices between production runs.

Myself, I'm on the slow drift from investor to collector - I couldn't resist opening the boxes and building the sets.  Death Star is one of the next few on the list.

[jaisonline]

even if 10188 is refreshed next year, many of us will be fine....as long as

1) TRU doesn't have a ton of these at that time
and
2) it isn't cleared out like 10227 for 30%-50% off by retailer(s).

[Val-E]

If it´s marked down by over 30% then count me in as a buyer!

[GhostDad]

The boosters of this idea (new, bigger, better DS based on the same movies) continue to ignore the pricing issue.  Look at recent SW UCS pricing for a moment.  Take 10240, for example.  Triple the number of pieces (1500) and triple the MSRP ($200).  This, at the minimum, is what a 'bigger, better' DS looks like.  A $600 set with 4500 - 5000 pieces).  Only one lego set has ever broken $400 (10179).  That was many years ago, and they never tried it again.  $600 would be a giant leap into territory very few fans could afford to enter.

Asharerin, I do agree that 75059 is better than 10144.  But in your post, you don't mention the price difference ($300 vs $140).  Are we expecting an $800 DS next year?

[asharerin]

The boosters of this idea (new, bigger, better DS based on the same movies) continue to ignore the pricing issue.  Look at recent SW UCS pricing for a moment.  Take 10240, for example.  Triple the number of pieces (1500) and triple the MSRP ($200).  This, at the minimum, is what a 'bigger, better' DS looks like.  A $600 set with 4500 - 5000 pieces).  Only one lego set has ever broken $400 (10179).  That was many years ago, and they never tried it again.  $600 would be a giant leap into territory very few fans could afford to enter.

Asharerin, I do agree that 75059 is better than 10144.  But in your post, you don't mention the price difference ($300 vs $140).  Are we expecting an $800 DS next year?

​No if the rumors are true I am expecting $499 - $599 USD depending on features. I think a larger and more detailed DS could be achieved at that price point utilizing more advanced building techniques rather than a mass of bley bricks. We will all know in 6 months or so

[stephen_rockefeller]

A 600 dollar lego set? Yeah ok!!!!

[GhostDad]

Asharerin, I think it would be tricky for Lego to pull that off.  75059 is a little bigger than 10144, sort of the minimum increase in size and features you would need to call it 'bigger and better'.  The construction is more advanced, but the switch from brown bricks to plates and Technic pieces doubled the piece count, even for a model that's not a whole lot bigger in dimensions.  I think Lego would be hard-pressed to make the same sorts of improvements to 10188 and stay even under $600 (if they released 10188 today, it would assuredly cost $499, not $399; compare 75055 to 6211, to take just one example; virtually identical models and piece counts, but the new one is 30% more expensive).

[Quacs]

I think we will be in for a nice surprise. I believe the new set will be a more advanced build and better display model suited for adults while 10188 will be better for kids. All speculation

I would be willing to wager there's less ABS in the new set too, using more advanced build techiques to cut down on the plastic.  See: Sandcrawler 1 vs. 2

Edited May 8, 2015 by Quacs