10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Ed Mack]

Well since my name has come up a few times on the DS, for those that remember over 2 years ago I posted that a new X-wing $200 and Large Evok Village was coming as I was shown pictures of these by a Lego East coast manager that travels to different stores on the east coast, and he was right . Now in March with the Double VIP points I seen him at the Lego store in Delaware, so this was before the new rumor started in April about a new Death Star, and the first thing I asked him was the DS 10188 Retiring he said yes, "and there is a new Death Star coming in 2016 or so, he said he hasn't seen it or has no idea on how big or a price." So if its true or not I don't really care right now as I have 56 of them, but in my case I got most for $262 from Barnes and Noble, to $300 from Amazon, and whenToys R US had the buy 2 get 1 free say 3 yrs ago and beyond Exclusives were included, so that averaged out to  about $285 each or so. Now do I want a $400 or more New DS, Not Really but I am pretty sure the 10188 will still do very well as with 4 Movies coming and Millions and Millions of new Star Wars Lego fans coming people will still want it. So anybody thats still does not have any I think you are making a Huge mistake that you will regret like not buying more SSD, Etc. I am sure many of you are still kicking your self for not getting alot of exclusives in the last year. Even I regret not having 75 SSD instead of 46, or 100 HH instead of 65. Etc.    Ed

​Everyone should own at least one 10188.  I am 99.9999999% sure there is a new one coming.  The 10188 was a big seller for LEGO the past 7 years or so and the new one will be as well.

[agp548]

Its funny how many people need to be told what to do. Bottom line is this...if you dont have 1 or 30 or whatever amount and you want one go buy one because when it does retire it will never be cheaper than 400 dollars even if a new one comes out. And if a new one comes out so what. Buy that one too. Because we all know that when it does retire people will be complaining that they missed the boat and blah blah blah. 

[trekgate502]

​This is the truth.  What kind of fool would drop $400 on a box of plastic knowing it would be worthless after cracking open the seals?  

​

Well since my name has come up a few times on the DS, for those that remember over 2 years ago I posted that a new X-wing $200 and Large Evok Village was coming as I was shown pictures of these by a Lego East coast manager that travels to different stores on the east coast, and he was right . Now in March with the Double VIP points I seen him at the Lego store in Delaware, so this was before the new rumor started in April about a new Death Star, and the first thing I asked him was the DS 10188 Retiring he said yes, "and there is a new Death Star coming in 2016 or so, he said he hasn't seen it or has no idea on how big or a price." So if its true or not I don't really care right now as I have 56 of them, but in my case I got most for $262 from Barnes and Noble, to $300 from Amazon, and whenToys R US had the buy 2 get 1 free say 3 yrs ago and beyond Exclusives were included, so that averaged out to  about $285 each or so. Now do I want a $400 or more New DS, Not Really but I am pretty sure the 10188 will still do very well as with 4 Movies coming and Millions and Millions of new Star Wars Lego fans coming people will still want it. So anybody thats still does not have any I think you are making a Huge mistake that you will regret like not buying more SSD, Etc. I am sure many of you are still kicking your self for not getting alot of exclusives in the last year. Even I regret not having 75 SSD instead of 46, or 100 HH instead of 65. Etc.    Ed

​

​Everyone should own at least one 10188.  I am 99.9999999% sure there is a new one coming.  The 10188 was a big seller for LEGO the past 7 years or so and the new one will be as well.

​

Thank you Ed and Ed.

I have been waiting for you both to weigh in and it is interesting it happened at the same time.  LOL.

I knew what Ed Mack would think of the comment that Lego does not care about the secondary market but decided not to jump in.

Carry on please

[bricketycricket]

Is it too late to proclaim that "this thread is about to get very busy"?

[ravenb99]

Is it too late to proclaim that "this thread is about to get very busy"?

​funny I about posted that earlier.

While it does suck to consistently come up short on your exclusives quotas at least there appears to be a almost 100% chance (not quite but very darn close) that you can try better on the next one...

[GhostDad]

I think everyone here is 100% sure a new DS is on its way.  The question is over what time frame, and based on what movie(s).  Without those two pieces of information, it's impossible to make any use out of this information.  We have, to my knowledge, two UCS sets that have been remade so far.  X-wing and Sandcrawler.  Both came out many years after the previous set was retired.  The new X-wing made essentially no improvements over the first, but the new Sandcrawler is bigger and better.  It's also twice as much ($300 vs $140).

Lego sells toys to kids, and adults who are, let's say, unusually young at heart for their age.  Nobody wants to pay $400 for the ultimate lego SW experience (DS) and see the new, more ultimate but otherwise identical (OT DS) come out the following year.  Lego knows this.  They have built their brand very successfully.  A lot of fans would be upset, and retailers like Target (or, um, everyone who accepts PayPal) with long return windows would get inundated with returns.  Unscrupulous buyers would seriously disassemble their DS's, put them back in the boxes, and tape them shut to return as 'new'.  It would be a mess for everyone involved, and hurt Lego's relations with retailers and fans alike.

I can imagine a 'cloud city' style, much smaller (say, $200 - $300 with half the pieces) DS.  I would be very, very surprised if it were even the same size as 10188 (pricewise, it would now be at least $500 if it were).  I think the new final duel set coming out gives us an idea of what that might look like.  It would still be a negative for 10188, but only the way 75055 is for 10030 or 7965 was for 10179.

Edited May 7, 2015 by GhostDad

[zskid00]

Ok, are we talking about a new playset style Death Star like the 10188 or a UCS style model like the 10143?

[legowalker]

Anyone know if emazers does this as a full time job? This motivates me to do the same.

Holy crap...that many SSD, HH, and DS in his hands, I can't even imagine how his stockroom looks like.

At his buy-in's are....wow....

Edited May 7, 2015 by legowalker

[jal4u2c]

So there you have it. Ed believes it's done. Emazer's source says it's done with a new one coming. Just2Good's source says it's done with a new one coming. What more do you need, a signed note from Lego? So concensus is 10188 is going away. Multiple sources say a new one is coming. We don't know exact dates or whether the new one will be playset style or "true" UCS "just for show" style. It's up to each individual to now decide how best to invest in this set. No one can make the decision for you. Investing requires some risk. Not everything can be as sure fire as the Haunted House. Personally, i have one to build and one to invest. But i only invest to further my collecting. Would i buy multiples of this if i could afford it? Eh, probably not. As has been stated, there are other "more sure" investments to be made. But i'd at least have one, just in case. 

[Val-E]

He spends so much time selling Lego that he has none left for commas or full stops!

Seriously, I respect his portfolio and decisions and I think he has summarised this very well. Buy as many as you can as cheap as possible. If you missed the boat on the discounts, consider your actions as a lot of people like him have them very cheaply and you don´t want to be last in line to offload them or you will feel the effects of the remake.

Lego will  probabyly leave enough time between the two versions so as not to tick off the stores that bought them in bulk and to avoid returns.

Now, the key thing is to know if more will be produced or not.

[zskid00]

Hot on the heals of the 10188 retiring, I don't see them making another playset.  The 10143 was the Death Star v.2 from ROTJ.  I am going to take a speculative guess that this new DS is a UCS display model v.1 from ANH and possibly featured in the new Rogue Squadron movie.  Then when I think about it, how dull is a giant ball shaped set full of grey bricks?  At least the 10143 had the unfinished detailing to break it up.

[legowalker]

PANIC BEGINS, well emazers said that 2+ years ago...

http://toysnbricks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=7619

[Darth_Raichu]

PANIC BEGINS, well emazers said that 2+ years ago...

http://toysnbricks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=7619

​ emazers actually used punctuation and line breaks then   

[Val-E]

I´m not trying to be a fanboy pet here but Emazer´s stash from 2012 has got very few stinkers in it. Those 2507 and 7965´s have done really well for me too - I got in too late for Harry Potter.

While it´s important to trust your instincts and know your own mind, it does not hurt to take a little inspiration from other people too!

 

[GhostDad]

I could imagine another DS2 style display set.  It's been long enough since the last one.  Boring?  Yep.  But I find 10221 boring to look at as well, and it's done just fine pricewise.  Folks love their monocolor gray sculptures.

The best part of this whole debate from a self-interested standpoint is all the investors who are deciding against stocking up on 10188 as a result.  I wish we could have some rumors start floating around about a new and bigger pet shop due out in '16 as well...

[Val-E]

I could imagine another DS2 style display set.  It's been long enough since the last one.  Boring?  Yep.  But I find 10221 boring to look at as well, and it's done just fine pricewise.  Folks love their monocolor gray sculptures.

The best part of this whole debate from a self-interested standpoint is all the investors who are deciding against stocking up on 10188 as a result.  I wish we could have some rumors start floating around about a new and bigger pet shop due out in '16 as well...

​Aha, so THAT´S why they changed the height on the box!!!!!

[xeeeej]

I fully expect a new Death Star next year, but I would be surprised if it's as large as or bigger than 10188.

As for the Buy Now Near EOL vs. Buy Mid-life at a discount, I'm attaching some CAGR food for digestion.  I modeled it after the SSD, which is not a perfect comparison but should be relatively close (shorter life, lower supply, but also lower demand).  Anyway, if you buy 10188 now at MSRP, your CAGR if you sell in 1 year should be close to that if you bought at $280 a few years ago.

Personally?  I have some, but not a ton.  I will probably buy a few more here or there, but agree money is probably better spent elsewhere.

Edited May 7, 2015 by xeeeej

[fuzzy_bricks]

If the rumored dates are close to what transpires, then I think we're looking at a situation similar to the 7965 MF.  Disappeared late 2014/early 2015 and is getting remade later 2015, and that set has still done pretty well.  That being said, I'm not sure I'd want to drop $400 per if I thought I had a limited selling window, I'd probably target cheaper alternatives.

[pete411]

Regarding the argument that Lego needs resellers because without us, their products would be worthless in the aftermarket, that's a load of bunk. If anything, we hurt resale value because we have inventory when other outlets have run out. Without resellers, used Lego set prices would skyrocket because people would be clamoring to buy whatever used, mint sets were available on the aftermarket through ebay, etc. The question really should be, does Lego need us to keep the resale market in check?

In reality, market forces have created an army of resellers to meet the needs of the customer. I definitely think that lego wants to stop the opposite effect which is resellers buying up all of the inventory and creating artificial shortages and turning off the regular customer. What is known as the amiibo effect. Lego wants the most normals as possible, buying their products and maximizing their revenue. 

[asharerin]

As for the Buy Now Near EOL vs. Buy Mid-life at a discount, I'm attaching some CAGR food for digestion.

Thanks xeeeej. Our brains are wired to cherry pick information to reinforce our BS belief systems but numbers never lie. Always nice to get a reality check once in a while to help us on our journey to superior returns.

[Val-E]

I think they look to strike a balance. They like the idea of being able to sell  a premium product and that the secondary market show strong residuals for retired items  but the don´t like resellers playing with their supply side on current items and causing stock errors à la Exo Suit.

Can you have your cake and eat it? Probably not, so they do some things to hurt resellers and some to that help them - whether intentionally, or not.

Edited May 7, 2015 by valenciaeric

[GhostDad]

I think Lego genuinely dislikes resellers.  They've made that pretty clear with bans and quantity limits.  But a new, bigger, and otherwise identical DS next year will offend plenty of regular fans, and that they do care about.  Frankly, while I put more credence in the idea of a new DS of some sort next year with emazers adding to the 'smoke', it still strikes me as an odd move.  After seven years, plenty of wealthy lego collectors already have 10188, and aren't likely to buy a new DS of any sort after dropping $400 on the old one, especially when the new one will have a much worse price/piece ratio (compare 10188 and 10236, for example).  It seems likely that Lego could garner far greater sales with a UCS Battle of Hoth, Cloud City, or even 10179 remake (since that set had a short life and most fans did not have an opportunity to pick it up already).

My own vote is for a full-size UCS Jabba's Palace, but the controversy over 9516 probably guarantees that we'll never see the exterior of that structure again in lego or any other form.

Edited May 7, 2015 by GhostDad

[Ciglione]

I think Lego genuinely dislikes resellers.  They've made that pretty clear with bans and quantity limits.  But a new, bigger, and otherwise identical DS next year will offend plenty of regular fans, and that they do care about.  Frankly, while I put more credence in the idea of a new DS of some sort next year with emazers adding to the 'smoke', it still strikes me as an odd move.  After seven years, plenty of wealthy lego collectors already have 10188, and aren't likely to buy a new DS of any sort after dropping $400 on the old one, especially when the new one will have a much worse price/piece ratio (compare 10188 and 10236, for example).  It seems likely that Lego could garner far greater sales with a UCS Battle of Hoth, Cloud City, or even 10179 remake (since that set had a short life and most fans did not have an opportunity to pick it up already).

My own vote is for a full-size UCS Jabba's Palace, but the controversy over 9516 probably guarantees that we'll never see the exterior of that structure again in lego or any other form.

Most probably ​Lego dislikes QFLL's. I even think Lego themselves invented this abbreviation.

I think they have nothing against investors who keep Lego sets in their closets for X years after retirement and sell them for some profit. Cause that keeps their brand exclusive and chique.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Lego is made it perfectly clear their stance.......they don't care if you buy one to build and one to resell later so can we stop speculating about that? Anyways I don't even know why this thread is still going, both Ed's have spoken and they are the end all be all right?

[gbg108]

Lego is made it perfectly clear their stance.......they don't care if you buy one to build and one to resell later so can we stop speculating about that? Anyways I don't even know why this thread is still going, both Ed's have spoken and they are the end all be all right?

How do they feel about one to build now and 20 to resell later? I'm still not sure about that one.