10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Val-E]

The gap between the existing set and the new one will be ample time to wring cash from this bad boy - especially if it is over Xmas and 1st movie madness. Look at how the model has sold in the EU Lego Shop over the last 2 months we have had data for (not just the 10% off sale), look at how no EU amazon has any and all on offer are above RRP. Look at US ebay sales data for last Xmas - how high did DS go and how many did it sell (while still generally available from main retailers).

There is real demand for this set and when it goes for good there will be enough people around that a) can´t wait for the  remake b: don´t care, c) will get both and there will be plenty of opportunity to QF.

Another thing is to expect 10179 profits - that aint gonna happen on a set out for 7 years.

I base my opinion on recent evidence from 7965, 9493 and 9492 playsets. Remember how many people said not to touch those ones even on discount and how well they did last Xmas and how they are doing now? Remember how many people said they were poor builds and the new ones would be so much better? 

These are the iconic SW sets that even people that have no love for SW like me know and recognise - it´s no B WING!

If you can get a good buy-in price you will do just fine with this set. Paying full RRP or more is probably a big risk at this stage, though.

Edited May 7, 2015 by valenciaeric

[fossilrock]

But what if it's still in stock by Christmas?  What if it really doesn't go out until early next year?  That's a lot of speculation.  There also will more than likely be 5000 listed during the holidays as people are trying to dump their stock. 

I'd also be skeptical about having a lot tied up in death stars at the moment, unless that person is willing to hold their cards and take a risk that this set will rise even with a new variation of the DS (which does happen and has a history in the lego SW universe).  While I do think there will be a rise in value with this set, I have my doubts it's going to rise very fast and furiously.  At best, people might make 20.00 profit on a DS over the holidays.  Considering the size and how much this set takes up, those that bought 50 or more likely won't lose money, but more than likely won't be making hundreds per set either this holiday season. 

[Frank Brickowski]

Maybe LEGO will release an improved direct follow-up to the Death Star also to get rid of some investors who spent a lot of money on hoarding the current one and will quit from investing completely after having got rid of all their 10188 inventory (in 5 years) and being fed up forever... You know: DEATH Star... how ambigious.

[Michalwroc]

This set was available in Smyths stores(biggest toy store in Ireland) all the time at 339€, now most of the shops are very low on stock and the price gone up to 399€, that never happened before.. the set is in top 20 best selling lego sets on the store site despite the high price.. this could clearly mean no more supply of this to the stores.. 

[bmorejared]

The more I think about it, the more peculiar I think it is that "Disney" is not printed anywhere on the box. It wouldn't be hard to change the box, they have done it before for the age standard. I think that when Disney bought Lucasfilm there may have been a window where products on the market already fell under an old licensing agreement, and maybe that agreement is expiring. This set is obviously a huge moneymaker for TLG as evidenced by the fact that they have kept it around for so long. I predict a seamless transition to a new and improved DS with Disney licensing and branding. I don't think the changes will be major. Maybe just updated mini figures. I still think the focus will be on the OT. I was thinking of picking up another of these for an investment, but I'm only looking to invest small time with larger sets. I think 2 Tumblers may be a better investment at this point.

[Val-E]

It´s an iconic set for sure, but I am treating it firmly as a playset to be bought cheap and sold quickly at a reasonable profit before there is a remake on the market.

My strategy does not contemplate very long term keeps for expensive sets as the customer base here shrinks when the prices goes above 600 euros and all the paypal INAD scams mean there is more to lose too. That might be tunnel vision and maybe other people will make much more money with less work than me and that´s fine - everyone has their own prerogatives.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

All I have to say is: "No Risk, No Return"

[Ciglione]

Firstly, I am not going to say the "rumours" about a new updated Death Star are true or false. 

My humble opinion is that if Lego would indeed do this they would seriously harm the secondary market. People would loose trust in Lego sets being a safe haven for their money and that lego sets in general keep their value. 

Many times people here are saying investors just count for a small fraction of the lego purchases. I disagree. Especially for the bigger exclusive sets investors like us do matter. We have the power to make a set OOS within days after a retirement rumour. This force is not due to the ordinary lego fans and/or customer. 

Investors will become very cautious before buying anymore large exclusive and expensive sets with the risk of a remake. 

Call me stubbern. Maybe hope is the father of my thoughts.  

[bmorejared]

Firstly, I am not going to say the "rumours" about a new updated Death Star are true or false. 

My humble opinion is that if Lego would indeed do this they would seriously harm the secondary market. People would loose trust in Lego sets being a safe haven for their money and that lego sets in general keep their value. 

Many times people here are saying investors just count for a small fraction of the lego purchases. I disagree. Especially for the bigger exclusive sets investors like us do matter. We have the power to make a set OOS within days after a retirement rumour. This force is not due to the ordinary lego fans and/or customer. 

Investors will become very cautious before buying anymore large exclusive and expensive sets with the risk of a remake. 

Call me stubbern. Maybe hope is the father of my thoughts.  

​I don't think Lego cares at all about the investor market. They may even revile it. When these hoarded sets go on sale in the secondary market they then compete with the primary market. The fact that there is a secondary market at all shows that Lego production does not meet demand. If the investor market dried up Lego would still sell all of their production. They would just sell it to people that were buying it to use it.

[asharerin]

The SW theme has a very long history of remakes with updated building techniques and minfigs. I don't see it as an issue to the secondary market. After the rehash of the UCS x-wing and sandcrawler I don't think TLG sees it as an issue for big SW sets either. Cautious and controlled investors is precisely what TLG is aiming for (at least in the USA). Allowing sets to retire and be remade or not remade with any kind of predictability would be harmful to the secondary market and our profits IMO.

[Ciglione]

The SW theme has a very long history of remakes with updated building techniques and minfigs. I don't see it as an issue to the secondary market. After the rehash of the UCS x-wing and sandcrawler I don't think TLG sees it as an issue for big SW sets either. Cautious and controlled investors is precisely what TLG is aiming for (at least in the USA). Allowing sets to retire and be remade or not remade with any kind of predictability would be harmful to the secondary market and our profits IMO.

​Refreshes are not uncommon yes. But a refresh so soon did never happen. There always has been a couple of years in between. So investors had the time to sell before the new one arrived. 

​I don't think Lego cares at all about the investor market. They may even revile it. When these hoarded sets go on sale in the secondary market they then compete with the primary market. The fact that there is a secondary market at all shows that Lego production does not meet demand. If the investor market dried up Lego would still sell all of their production. They would just sell it to people that were buying it to use it.

​I tend to disagree. They need us just as bad as we need them. I really believe that without us Lego will not be the number one toymaker in the world.

 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

Cautious and controlled investors is precisely what TLG is aiming for (at least in the USA). Allowing sets to retire and be remade or not remade with any kind of predictability would be harmful to the secondary market and our profits IMO.

​Which is why they may slip in a red herring now and then............like the DS "Rumors".

[Michalwroc]

I don't think The Lego Group care about the secondary market at all to be honest, after all they make all the money from the sets they sell, if it sells bad they discoutinue the set earlier.. Its the cheap ABS and great designs they make the money from.. A death star could be only worth a few € in clear plastic abs based on the weight they pay from the suppliers.. but add expensive molds, designers, factory etc.. But the profit they make is enormous anyway..

[bricketycricket]

Lego hasn't done investors any favors with 10188, so why start now? I don't think a quickly remade DS will affect investor confidence much. Investors are already wary of the never-retiring Death Star but it's not like people are afraid that all sets will have 7 year life spans. It's dismissed as a one off and a re-released DS would be viewed the same way.

And for those saying Lego doesn't care about the secondary market, they certainly do. Secondary market values allow them to maximize their primary market pricing because there is a perception of collectible value beyond the tangible value of the plastic bricks in the box.

[steakyboy]

​I tend to disagree. They need us just as bad as we need them. I really believe that without us Lego will not be the number one toymaker in the world.

​This is a great point. Many of us invest/collect and see the value, and make purchase because of the $ to be made/invested. I can still remember seeing the HP Burrows on the shelf and thinking $60 for a LEGO set? Outrageous. I am even afraid to say I may remember seeing the 10179 on the shelf and thinking $500 is CRAZY! My kid's grandparents and Aunts and Uncles think LEGO are way too expensive for little pieces of plastic. I often wonder how long a PS or PC would remain in stock on LEGO Shop at Home if a BPer didn't mention it on a forum or be tracking it due to investing/reselling. How many times do you see, "PC in stock Walmart.com"...2 minutes later POOF!

[bmorejared]

The one way that I could see Lego really caring about investors is if they buy licenses that expire after a period of time. Let's say that Lego has a 2 year license to produce a Ghostbusters set. In two years everyone that may eventually want an Ecto-1 may not buy, but when you have a bunch of people buying 50 of them during that two years, TLG has maximized their profit on that license. It's a balancing act though, because these are toys, and there needs to be a certain air of fun and not extreme profit to maintain the brand image.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

Here's my take on a Quick DS remake.
Simple, If you were a Lego collector, aficionado, or Enthusiast.or whatever......Would you be pissed if you just got the DS for $400 plus tax OR in the secondary market for much more and then Bam.......they come up with another DS at around $350-$450.  
I would be pissed as ****.
Im pissed Thinking about it!

[Val-E]

and if you were a retailer with unsold stock?

Edited May 7, 2015 by valenciaeric

[BrickLegacy]

All I have to say is: "No Risk, No Return"

Yep.  ​If the rumor isn't true...this set will skyrocket.

[asharerin]

​Refreshes are not uncommon yes. But a refresh so soon did never happen. There always has been a couple of years in between. So investors had the time to sell before the new one arrived. 

​The last system scale X-wing and current AT-AT were released with no break in between. I don't think leaving a break of a certain number of years would be a consideration for a potential new DS. The timing of the new movie, hype, Disney's wishes, budget and production capacity are what will be considered. 

[Brickson]

Here's my take on a Quick DS remake.
Simple, If you were a Lego collector, aficionado, or Enthusiast.or whatever......Would you be pissed if you just got the DS for $400 plus tax OR in the secondary market for much more and then Bam.......they come up with another DS at around $350-$450.  
I would be pissed as ****.
Im pissed Thinking about it!

​This I can agree with. 

The rest about LEGO needing us and making decisions based on us is non-sense. It's true, but there's no way that argument could be used internally, because, they would rather we didn't exist. Ideally for them we don't, for predictability, for total control, for the root idea and dream of just making good toys, mostly for children. However, our interests do mostly align with general consumers and collectors. That's how the conversation probably goes, and that's what saves us (per Miami's comment). When something like that happens, you may be an investor but you're also presenting yourself as a consumer and collector to LEGO, which they can't ignore because that's the legitimate stream. The possible uproar just needs to be big enough for them to talk about, otherwise they probably don't talk about any of this.

Edited May 7, 2015 by Brickson

[pete411]

Here's my take on a Quick DS remake.
Simple, If you were a Lego collector, aficionado, or Enthusiast.or whatever......Would you be pissed if you just got the DS for $400 plus tax OR in the secondary market for much more and then Bam.......they come up with another DS at around $350-$450.  
I would be pissed as ****.
Im pissed Thinking about it!

​You have to figure that the vast majority of the sales for this set will have happened over a year before the introduction of the new set. Sure, you'll piss off a few, but that's going to keep Lego from releasing a new Death Star? Uhh no. If you're a hardcore collector, you'll buy the new one no questions asked. If you're a kid that actually played with the set, you probably don't care if the new set is better and stick to the old one, or you've probably outgrown Lego. In the end, all good things must come to an end. The new Death Star will probably have updates to its minifigures and building techniques but more importantly, Disney will have their logo emblazoned on the flagship SW Lego set. It has to happen, and happen fast. None of this, oh we may hurt somebody's feelings BS.

Edited May 7, 2015 by pete411

[LegoEdison]

Here's my take on a Quick DS remake.
Simple, If you were a Lego collector, aficionado, or Enthusiast.or whatever......Would you be pissed if you just got the DS for $400 plus tax OR in the secondary market for much more and then Bam.......they come up with another DS at around $350-$450.  
I would be pissed as ****.
Im pissed Thinking about it!

​Yes, but once the new bigger/better/or whatever DS is on the market, Lego collector, aficionado, or Enthusiast.or whatever will still handing out their cash for it. 

[Ed Mack]

 

And for those saying Lego doesn't care about the secondary market, they certainly do. Secondary market values allow them to maximize their primary market pricing because there is a perception of collectible value beyond the tangible value of the plastic bricks in the box.

​This is the truth.  What kind of fool would drop $400 on a box of plastic knowing it would be worthless after cracking open the seals?  

Edited May 7, 2015 by Ed Mack

[emazers]

Well since my name has come up a few times on the DS, for those that remember over 2 years ago I posted that a new X-wing $200 and Large Evok Village was coming as I was shown pictures of these by a Lego East coast manager that travels to different stores on the east coast, and he was right . Now in March with the Double VIP points I seen him at the Lego store in Delaware, so this was before the new rumor started in April about a new Death Star, and the first thing I asked him was the DS 10188 Retiring he said yes, "and there is a new Death Star coming in 2016 or so, he said he hasn't seen it or has no idea on how big or a price." So if its true or not I don't really care right now as I have 56 of them, but in my case I got most for $262 from Barnes and Noble, to $300 from Amazon, and whenToys R US had the buy 2 get 1 free say 3 yrs ago and beyond Exclusives were included, so that averaged out to  about $285 each or so. Now do I want a $400 or more New DS, Not Really but I am pretty sure the 10188 will still do very well as with 4 Movies coming and Millions and Millions of new Star Wars Lego fans coming people will still want it. So anybody thats still does not have any I think you are making a Huge mistake that you will regret like not buying more SSD, Etc. I am sure many of you are still kicking your self for not getting alot of exclusives in the last year. Even I regret not having 75 SSD instead of 46, or 100 HH instead of 65. Etc.    Ed