10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Crustybeaver]

people here tend to be very skeptical when something goes against mainstream doctrine as I'm sure you'll discover.

As I write this message you currently have contributed 62 posts (most of which appear to be contained within this thread) and your pal Just2good only just yesterday made his first forum posts. People pass off predictions as facts on a regular basis here, so pardon us for airing some skepticism. There are a lot of people on this site that will consider information supplied when making investment decisions. As you've gone to a lot of effort to defend and promote J2G's prediction, maybe you could care to supply an example or two of previously successful predictions which would make your statements more credible. Forum trust has to be earned.

[just2good]

Hey y'all, I'll just adress some concerns.

I do not plan on investing on any Death Star sets. Here's the the thing- I do not resell, or invest on LEGO. I'm just a collector. I joined this site many years ago to use the main site's function. I know majority of you are investors, which is okay. I just started postin here as a friend told me I was being name dropped over here.

 

The person who told me this info is someone close to LEGO. That's all I can say, and he's been right many times before. I have no gain from telling people this information as far as I can see. It's for you all to make up your minds- however, I'm not sure you should invest as the distance between when this old one retires and this new one comes out will most likely be very short, and the new one will be the 2008 one but better (as far as I heard).

 

It's okay to be skeptical, but keep in mind my rumors just like this have been right many times before. If you want, I can link to those times. I'm on mobile right now, so it will be later in the day. I'll be honest- I'm iffy about this rumor he told me about the Death Star, or at least I was at first, but I remember how many times this man has been accurate and resourceful before. I personally have no connections with LEGO, I'm just an average guy who knows some people who do.

 

Cheers, feel free to ask any questions.

[jaisonline]

It appears just2good has earned a solid reputation on Eurobricks.  A simple search will show this.

It iwas nice if him to post on brickpicker.  He shared 2 predictions.  Actually, he was responding to posts here about content he posted on Eurobricks.   One of the posts were mine.

Now it's time to move on.  If he's right awesome.  If not, it's another reason to be wary of rumors. 

 If you don't agree, that is fine. Just ignore the content in question or report it to the mods.

please remember to show respect to everyone.  

[Frank Brickowski]

>jaisonline:
>Thanks for the info as it's much appreciated.  Let's hope Lego does it as it could be very cool and kinda perfect timing with the Rouge One film.

​Why on earth is everybody calling it "ROUGE One"? This is no musical adaptation, it's a Star Wars movie and it is called "ROGUE One".

Edited May 7, 2015 by rfish

[Sprocket77]

It appears just2good has earned a solid reputation on Eurobricks.  A simple search will show this.

It iwas nice if him to post on brickpicker.  He shared 2 predictions.  Actually, he was responding to posts here about content he posted on Eurobricks.   One of the posts were mine.

Now it's time to move on.  If he's right awesome.  If not, it's another reason to be wary of rumors. 

 If you don't agree, that is fine. Just ignore the content in question or report it to the mods.

please remember to show respect to everyone.  

​Can you please stop talking sense, it's way too boring. We need another 20 pages of posts arguing about the validity of these rumours

 

[jaisonline]

​Why on earth is everybody calling it "ROUGE One"? This is no musical adaptation, it's a Star Wars movie and it is called "ROGUE One".

Ha.  Smartphone auto correct maybe.  Or they speak French.

[jgschmieg3]

There is quite a simple solution:  just ask Emazers how many he has or how many he has been buying per week over the past few months.  

[Crustybeaver]

The person who told me this info is someone close to LEGO. That's all I can say, and he's been right many times before. I have no gain from telling people this information as far as I can see. It's for you all to make up your minds- however, I'm not sure you should invest as the distance between when this old one retires and this new one comes out will most likely be very short, and the new one will be the 2008 one but better (as far as I heard).

​Thanks for taking the time to elaborate some more. The Death Star has clearly been a very successful toy for Lego hence keeping it in production for so many years. It also makes sense that it could be replaced and refreshed with another flagship DS, after all it's starting to look dated. I can understand TLG opting for another playset over a UCS version and many would welcome a larger variation, however I'll be surprised if it transpires to be nothing more than a slightly larger re-issue. I'd be expecting a complete redesign with new features and a new look. For me this will be the key factor for the 10188's future growth rate.

[tractorboy]

Interesting info, thanks for sharing it. I guess we all just have to size up all info available on any set and make up our own minds about how it dictates our investments. Arguing about whether any info is true or not is kind of pointless.

Leaving the possibilities of a remake aside... for me, my worries about this set are that it's been in production for so long and has sold very well. As far as I know, there hasn't been a similarly priced set or SW UCS that's been going that long. So there's no precedent to look at or compare it to. It could also mean a lot of used DS on the market over the next few years, which could slow gains. That's not to say it won't do well, it could well do. But it's enough to want me to keep my number at two and look at other options.

[fossilrock]

Some of you guys are not paying attention and just blurting out speculative nonsense without even knowing the basics of what is going on in the Star Wars film universe.  In the next two years there are 3 movies coming out.  (Episode 7 on December 18th, 2015, Rogue One on December 16th 2016, and Episode 8 on May 26th, 2017)

As far as I know and have read (and I read a lot of SW rumors), most rumors do NOT talk about a new death star in the new trilogy.  Where the Death Star is talked about is in the Rogue One movie which is part of the Star Wars Anthology series, which is pegged to have 3 episodes.  The first one is based on Rebels attempting to steal plans to the Death Star, and is based on events that happen between Episode 3 and 4..  Lego has the license for these films, and so YES, there will more than likely be many death star sequences for Rogue One. 

Edited May 7, 2015 by fossilrock

[mscheaf]

All I know is after reading the last 5 years worth of posts on this thread is I am not listening to anyone's rumors or speculation on it. Cause this thread is nothing but years and years and years of people being wrong. Period.

[iahawks550]

Some of you guys are not paying attention and just blurting out speculative nonsense without even knowing the basics of what is going on in the Star Wars film universe.  In the next two years there are 3 movies coming out.  (Episode 7 on December 18th, 2015, Rogue One on December 16th 2016, and Episode 8 on May 26th, 2014)

​So, the last 3 movies happened before the first three movies, but were shown 15 years later. Now you're telling me Episode 8 will be shown before Episode 7, in the past.

Edited May 7, 2015 by iahawks550

[fossilrock]

​So, the last 3 movies happened before the first three movies, but were shown 15 years later. Now you're telling me Episode 8 will be shown before Episode 7, in the past.

​
I didn't say that.  Ok, once again.  The new trilogy will be episodes 7, 8, and 9.  In between the release date of each of the trilogy films will be a Star Wars Anthology film that will be a standalone film that takes place somewhere in the Star Wars timeline. 

Rouge One is the first film in the Anthology series and is based on rebels stealing the plans to the Death Star and will be released on December 16th, 2016.  The movies plot takes place between Episode 3 and 4.  The second Anthology film is due out sometime in 2017-18 and is rumored to be based on Boba Fett and Bounty Hunters.  The third one is RUMORED to be on either Han Solo or Yoda and will be released after Episode 9...

Simply put, there are six new Star Wars films in six years.  3 based on events after Return of the Jedi, and 3 anthology films that will take place during the events of Episodes 1 through 6. 

Edited May 7, 2015 by fossilrock

[ravenb99]

>jaisonline:
>Thanks for the info as it's much appreciated.  Let's hope Lego does it as it could be very cool and kinda perfect timing with the Rouge One film.

​Why on earth is everybody calling it "ROUGE One"? This is no musical adaptation, it's a Star Wars movie and it is called "ROGUE One".

Nothing wrong with a little rouge. Especially vib

[BrickLegacy]

I'll be honest- I'm iffy about this rumor he told me about the Death Star, or at least I was at first, but I remember how many times this man has been accurate and resourceful before. I personally have no connections with LEGO, I'm just an average guy who knows some people who do.

​I've pumped the brakes on this set for now.  It's cool that J2G stopped by to back up his claims on here.  He didn't have to do that.  Its important to note that he is going by his source. 

This isn't something he is claiming to be a fact, he just trusts his source because he hasn't let him down in the past.  We don't know who this source is or where they got their information.  I still can't find any other rumors about a Death Star remake that don't have roots from J2G's original claim or are just pure speculation based on a new movie.  I'll admit, I was ready to go "all in" on this set until this rumor came about.  Should I let one rumor change my decision making process?  Probably not.  But then again, there are a lot of other ways to spend $400 on LEGO right now so maybe these developments are a blessing in disguise? 

I do think we are ready for an emazers post.  Those of you that are really close to him should ask him to stop by.

[Bold-Arrow]

​I didn't say that.  Ok, once again.  The new trilogy will be episodes 7, 8, and 9.  In between the release date of each of the trilogy films will be a Star Wars Anthology film that will be a standalone film that takes place somewhere in the Star Wars timeline. 

Rouge One is the first film in the Anthology series and is based on rebels stealing the plans to the Death Star and will be released on December 16th, 2016.  The movies plot takes place between Episode 3 and 4.  The second Anthology film is due out sometime in 2017-18 and is rumored to be based on Boba Fett and Bounty Hunters.  The third one is RUMORED to be on either Han Solo or Yoda and will be released after Episode 9...

Simply put, there are six new Star Wars films in six years.  3 based on events after Return of the Jedi, and 3 anthology films that will take place during the events of Episodes 1 through 6. 

You had 2014 for episode 8  

[fossilrock]

You had 2014 for episode 8  

​Yes, I realized that after the fact.  I just corrected it.  Sorry, Iowa Hawks Guy...

[citymorgue]

It's still really hard to believe these rumors about a new bigger/better death star.  In what way?  The current 10188 defies current price/piece trends.  over 3600 for $400.  No way a new set is going to have either more pieces for the same price with as many minifigs.  It would easily be a $500 set.  They are making more expensive sets with less pieces more so now.  I just don't know what to make of the rumor honestly.  If they updated the set with new box art, minifigs and the like, I can see that as a more plausible scenario.  It doesn't really matter much to me honestly, because I don't invest, I just collect, so it's not like I'm losing any money.  But nothing about this (IMO) passes the sniff test for me.

PS, It also seems unlikely, because with the exception of the DS, they have been pretty reluctant to release a $400 set since the SSD.  The closest they have been has been the UCS helicarrier.  If this set retires, I wouldn't even be surprised to never see another $400+ set again.

Edited May 7, 2015 by citymorgue

[asharerin]

@‌bricketycricket: The problem is, all the 'smoke' is coming from one anonymous source.  It would also be pretty bizarre for lego to release a DS with scenes from Episode IV as a tie-in to a Rogue Squadron movie that features a death star.  One piece of info we do have that I think contradicts the idea of a new DS coming next year with OT scenes, is the new final duel set due out shortly.  It's a rather large standalone DS scene to have on store shelves alongside an OT death star.

​I can vouch for J2G. His info is always solid and he has been contributing this solid info for a long time now. Yes we all thought it may be an april fools joke in the beginning given the timing of the leak but he has since confirmed on multiple channels it was not. I would also not jump to the conclusion the new DS is a tie in for Rogue Squadron. A new updated 10188 released on May 4th 2016 sounds plausible to me. That $399 retail slot has been around since June 2008. Back then we were all blown away by the set and the price tag. No better time for that to happen again than in early 2016 and while it all sounds just too good when investing in 10188 I would account for a significant chance it will be an inferior model very quickly. TLG is not shy about rehashing SW sets and I presume Disney also has input on what gets made now. I would not price in a 100% chance of 10188 being obsolete quickly but given the new information it would be smart to price in a significant percentage chance of this happening. What that does to your valuations and your target numbers is up to you but I am going light on this set and heavy on others where no remakes are rumored.

[trekgate502]

​I can vouch for J2G. His info is always solid and he has been contributing this solid info for a long time now. Yes we all thought it may be an april fools joke in the beginning given the timing of the leak but he has since confirmed on multiple channels it was not. I would also not jump to the conclusion the new DS is a tie in for Rogue Squadron. A new updated 10188 released on May 4th 2016 sounds plausible to me. That $399 retail slot has been around since June 2008. Back then we were all blown away by the set and the price tag. No better time for that to happen again than in early 2016 and while it all sounds just too good when investing in 10188 I would account for a significant chance it will be an inferior model very quickly. TLG is not shy about rehashing SW sets and I presume Disney also has input on what gets made now. I would not price in a 100% chance of 10188 being obsolete quickly but given the new information it would be smart to price in a significant percentage chance of this happening. What that does to your valuations and your target numbers is up to you but I am going light on this set and heavy on others where no remakes are rumored.

​asharerin I meant to say thanks for your post last night.  they are level headed and make good sense.  For example what are the chances of a follow up Ewok Village right after this one retires? Probably not much... Of course to me the Death Star is epic which is why they have kept it alive so long for sales rate etc but if they really had a remake that was equal or better I would not want many of the current one.  Does one coming out next year before rogue one make sense? Absolutely.  Just based on that teaser alone.  Did the Brick Show say the current one is retired 1Q16? Yes Do I have two other sources I trust that say it is going? Yes but they are all sources and not fact.  If they do not have a remake or it is half the size I would want many of the current one.  I personally believe, and we all can believe what we want that the Death Star will not be like the Grand Emporium or even the timing of the Town Hall that it keeps spurting out here and there after supply is mostly used up but I believe it will take an extremely quick exit in the US when the music stops.  When and if the music ever stops is the question.  Hence the valid concern an investor could have that they are compelled to have few and to have many at the same time.  Whether J2G information is accurate or not each person has a choice to make.  I want more and I want fewer at the same time.  What would it do if we were told that the UCS R2 D2 assuming it was still in production was going to be retired and 6 months later a bigger better cooler version with more features that blows the current one away in every regard would be released.  I would want less.  When R2 was going I wanted more and have a good amount, not great, not small.  We know everything is subject to replacements but normally it takes a few years.  However things are not normal any more.  When was the last time we had a Star Wars movie every year? Well umm never. So we are in a new normal and we do not know what it is.  At the moment I am choosing to sit tight at 10 and not increase and not lower though different aspects of me want to do both.  I personally believe though the poll here is not scientific by any means and most large investors do not report anything that 10188 many people have one in the closet.  Most do not have 50 in the closet like emazers.  Time will tell and I am appreciative of J2G and his information.  We each have our own decision to make.

[trekgate502]

It appears just2good has earned a solid reputation on Eurobricks.  A simple search will show this.

It iwas nice if him to post on brickpicker.  He shared 2 predictions.  Actually, he was responding to posts here about content he posted on Eurobricks.   One of the posts were mine.

Now it's time to move on.  If he's right awesome.  If not, it's another reason to be wary of rumors. 

 If you don't agree, that is fine. Just ignore the content in question or report it to the mods.

please remember to show respect to everyone.  

​jais appreciate this post

[legowalker]

​I've pumped the brakes on this set for now.  It's cool that J2G stopped by to back up his claims on here.  He didn't have to do that.  Its important to note that he is going by his source. 

This isn't something he is claiming to be a fact, he just trusts his source because he hasn't let him down in the past.  We don't know who this source is or where they got their information.  I still can't find any other rumors about a Death Star remake that don't have roots from J2G's original claim or are just pure speculation based on a new movie.  I'll admit, I was ready to go "all in" on this set until this rumor came about.  Should I let one rumor change my decision making process?  Probably not.  But then again, there are a lot of other ways to spend $400 on LEGO right now so maybe these developments are a blessing in disguise? 

I do think we are ready for an emazers post.  Those of you that are really close to him should ask him to stop by.

​Everyone just spend $400 + and extra $50 on THREE Pet Shops and call it a day. One DS profit margin will not be better than THREE Pet Shops when both retires.

Edited May 7, 2015 by legowalker

[asharerin]

At the end of the day all we can do is compile all of the information we have available (and some have better information than others) and run the numbers. The last situation I want to be in is carrying big numbers of 10188 all outside of a return window and have photos of the new set leaked and being blown away. I will roll the dice some more in 1Q 2016 if no new info comes to light and go from there. No point in trying to make hero calls in this game, just go by the numbers and use timing to your advantage. If 10188 is sold out by then and the new rumor falls flat then good luck to those who could afford more risk than me and they should be rewarded.

[jal4u2c]

Knowing that lego usually only re-releases sets when they have found ways to improve on them, has anyone looked closely at the new Death Star they built at the Lego Theme Park? While building it they could have discovered new ways to improve the retail version. I would think a closer inspection of that one might reveal some clues of what could be different about a newer set. 

[bmorejared]

I really know nothing bout licensing, but it seems to me that the DS is the only currently produced Lego SW set that doesn't have Disney printed anywhere on the box. Maybe Disney isn't getting a piece of it, and maybe the time where that is allowed is coming to an end. With the DS being a huge success for Lego they may wish to keep it going and improve it while adding the Disney licensing.