10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Bold-Arrow]

​There's a new Death Star next year. Also, we're getting LEGO Disney Collectible Minifigures next year, most likely as the May release.

​i'll bite. what type of DS set are we talking about?

[just2good]

​i'll bite. what type of DS set are we talking about?

​Direct to Consumer, as it's bigger and better than the last. I dunno anything else about it

[jaisonline]

 Thanks for the info as it's much appreciated.  Let's hope Lego does it as it could be very cool and kinda perfect timing with the Rouge One  film.

​Direct to Consumer, as it's bigger and better than the last. I dunno anything else about it

 

[Bold-Arrow]

​Direct to Consumer, as it's bigger and better than the last. I dunno anything else about it

I will take that

[fossilrock]

 

Ok, let's look at this realistically.  So, there is a new movie based on rebels stealing the plans to the Death Star called Rogue One that is due out on December 16th, 2016 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3748528/).  One would guess from the brief footage from the Star Wars Celebration event in Anaheim that there is definitely a Death Star in this film.  (Lego also has the license to Star Wars, and from what we are seeing this year, they are supposedly releasing the first wave of toys for Episode 7 on September 4th -
http://www.theverge.com/2015/5/3/8539903/star-wars-force-awakens-toys-release-date

That leaves me to guess that there will be a new death star out in September of 2016 in time for the holiday rush, which at that point could be in a star wars frenzy...  It would make sense.

 

 

 

[exciter1]

 

Ok, let's look at this realistically.  So, there is a new movie based on rebels stealing the plans to the Death Star called Rogue One that is due out on December 16th, 2016 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3748528/).  One would guess from the brief footage from the Star Wars Celebration event in Anaheim that there is definitely a Death Star in this film.  (Lego also has the license to Star Wars, and from what we are seeing this year, they are supposedly releasing the first wave of toys for Episode 7 on September 4th -
http://www.theverge.com/2015/5/3/8539903/star-wars-force-awakens-toys-release-date

That leaves me to guess that there will be a new death star out in September of 2016 in time for the holiday rush, which at that point could be in a star wars frenzy...  It would make sense.

 

Yoda sees this while meditating. That's all I know.

 

​

[trekgate502]

​There's a new Death Star next year. Also, we're getting LEGO Disney Collectible Minifigures next year, most likely as the May release.

​If I believed your info, which quite honestly I am likely to I'd like your personal opinion take on these two things:

- What do you mean by direct to consumer, available only through Lego and not major retailers as normal?

- It sounds like you have heard this new one will be bigger and better and not a smaller $150-250 version.  So my question is are you an investor and if so how are you proceeding on investing in 10188?  My guess is that we have a sweet spot to sell this Christmas and then get out.

Would love to know your thoughts.

[fossilrock]

I'd also suspect Darth Vader will be in the movie, and will play a major role.   Gareth Edwards is supposedly making this a "dark film" so i'd suspect we'll see Vader at his most menacing.  I almost want to guarantee Vader will be in the film.  Regardless, we can speculate to death about the new "death star", but I bet none of us see a thing until late summer 2016 at the earliest.  So, until then this thread will probably be 9000 pages deep in circular speculation : )

[Darth_Raichu]

​There's a new Death Star next year. Also, we're getting LEGO Disney Collectible Minifigures next year, most likely as the May release.

​As in we are getting Donald Duck and Goofy in minifig form ?

[cladner]

well as long as we're talking about Donald Duck _AND_ GOofy in the DS thread, I feel compelled to Brick Roll it with this...

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2015 by cladner

[asharerin]

​If I believed your info, which quite honestly I am likely to I'd like your personal opinion take on these two things:

- What do you mean by direct to consumer, available only through Lego and not major retailers as normal?

- It sounds like you have heard this new one will be bigger and better and not a smaller $150-250 version.  So my question is are you an investor and if so how are you proceeding on investing in 10188?  My guess is that we have a sweet spot to sell this Christmas and then get out.

Would love to know your thoughts.

​Trek D2C means an exclusive. 

I personally will be going very light on 10188. While the set brings back good memories for me the building techniques and minfigs are extremely dated. Obviously a bigger, better, and more expensive version at retail is going to put a dampener on the upside potential of 10188. With the new pieces available to the designer, new figs and presumably a nice budget to work with, I expect the 2016 model to blow 10188 completely away. I am guessing it will have an outer shell that partially folds to reveal some nice play features inside, or a fixed outer shell on one side and play features in the back half. The SW hype is going to be huge in 2016 so it would not surprise me if Disney and TLG go all out with a very expensive and really cool new DS.

Edited May 7, 2015 by asharerin

[AFFOL]

I suspect that the new DS would really be a cheaper and crappier version, just like all the other recent remakes, such as the AT as mention in the previous post.

Edited May 7, 2015 by gregpj
Grammer - mod edit: language

[GhostDad]

I'm sorry, but this makes no sense.  Given overall inflation in lego UCS pricing, a 'bigger' DS (say, 5000 pieces) would retail for at least $600.  Lego has never made a set that expensive, and they have never followed one large SW exclusive with another the very next year.  Never mind that, with regard to investment potential, the new one would presumably be based on a totally different film and feature none of the iconic scenes that have made 10188 such a classic.  But the bigger issue is the ludicrousness of this rumor (for the pricing and timing reasons just given).  As an anonymous internet guy just like everyone else, I'll wager all my anonymous internet credibility on any 'new DS' being far smaller, probably totally open like the old Cloud City, and featuring few of the Episode IV characters (and none of the scenes, obviously).

I've had my doubts about Brick Show predictions, but those guys are at least risking a reputation that's bound up with their business (youtube revenue from video views and subscribers, for example).  Plus I can see their faces and know their names.  Why should I trust someone who is nothing but an internet screen name and has nothing to lose by being wrong? Do we seriously think the Lego corporation 'leaks' information this way?  We're talking about the largest toy company in the world, not Paris Hilton.  I think folks are taking this stuff way too seriously.

Edit: I just watched J2G's youtube video, which gives us precisely this info: there's a new DS coming in 2016!  And that's it.  The video is just text.  And it makes the odd claim that if 10188 retires this year, then we'll know he's right about the new one coming out next year.  Really, these are two entirely different predictions.  Brick Show made the retirement prediction (for this year) in a youtube video last year.  So that's not exactly news.  And if Lego wanted to designate an official leaker, wouldn't they pick someone like that, established in the community, and with whom they already have an official relationship (sending Brick Show review copies of new sets, for example)?  It amazes me that the internet is all abuzz over the unsubstantiated prediction of one anonymous person.

Edited May 7, 2015 by GhostDad

[Vinetu]

@Just2good: welcome to this forum, I do not have to play the game of virtual megaphone any longer And apologies for some insinuations in my comments if you found them inappropriate, they were purely intended as emphasis on a case in point, people here tend to be very skeptical when something goes against mainstream doctrine as I'm sure you'll discover.

@GhostDad: How would you imagine a big corporation like TLG would leak information? Because the way it's done through just2good is pretty much spot on the way I would have imagined. We are talking marketing experts here people, well versed in human hype/consumer psychology, not your run-of-a-mill guy who comes out and issues a press release. And Paris Hilton would make a tweet  that people with more then 2 brain cells wouldn't give a damn about, people on Lego forums I have encountered usually have engineering, medical, business school and similar degrees. You do not cater to them in quite the same way...

You can't see faces and know names, seriously? Welcome to the internet era! Honestly, I do not mean that as an affront, I'm just stunned you could write something like that... Do you know the names or seen the faces of all the people on this forum? Does that mean that they have absolutely nothing worthwhile or credible to share with Lego community? Or even potential to do so in the future?

As for the seriousness, well, I guess it goes with thinking people, I'd expect nothing else from an adult-geared forum (all occasional humor is notoriously welcome though ). Not to mention there are people around who do Lego investing for a living...

 

[Brickson]

I agree with GhostDad that it makes no sense to get hyped up about this rumor. I would add that I highly doubt Lego is designating any leakers. It's this guy (j2g) who has source/s (who could be anybody, even factory workers) that are leaking him information. He also leaked a photo of Kwik-e-mart last year. He does have a YouTube channel and maybe you can see his face in one of them. Even then, none of that matters to me, I don't care if I can see and hear him on YouTube, this is all hearsay.

 

PS. If there's a DS in VII, I'll be highly disappointed they waited 30 years to milk that more. Makes no sense. It got its ass kicked. Lets move on.

Edited May 7, 2015 by Brickson

[trekgate502]

I believe.

It bothers me as I have been stockpiling DS's of late and am questioning that decision.

[Brickson]

Investment strategy wise, it makes much more sense to wait until the day DS is retired, if in the next 5 years, and buy it then. It'll still be easy to find at MSRP after retirement, from either mom and pops, and after the hype dies down.

I only see 1 of 2 things happening: 1) they keep the DS where it is, making money, as a beacon for all SW fans in the LEGO universe, indefinitely 2) they retire that sucker once and for all next year and we see some new UCS, with a possibility they re-create it later in like 2017. I do think they could really improve it.

In both situations, it makes no sense to be stockpiling DS unless you're a serious player and need 30+ of them (and you're a huge freaking gambler). Buying 1-10 of them now, is like dumping your profits from all other sales into them on a whim.

Going with the facts, DS may or may not retire and may or may not see any profit in the next few years. If you can afford 6 DS, you can afford a 10179 or 10189 (both of which can't be improved upon very easily), which in reality is actually still appreciating. Or, you know, one of the many many other better choices.

Edited May 7, 2015 by Brickson

[trekgate502]

Well Trek is known for having no basis for anything and doing things senseless at a whim.

I would love to have found GE's and R2's after they were oficially retired.

If you exclude Target and LEGO Shop at Home who might be the only 2 with inventory right now (I have not checked this week), assuming they both disappeared and did not restock please provide a long current list of mom and pop internet or brick and mortar locations that I can currently scoop bessie up and add 20 to my stock and links...

I have two separate and complete sources both of whom I trust implicitly that have told me the DS is retiring sometime this year or end of this year.

I may be wrong but I was perfect on R2 if you read the 500 pages in that thread.

I trust my retirement sources more than I trust the new one coming sources but both are not mutually exclusive...

That's no moon.

[bricketycricket]

Lots of interesting points here but I'll just add this: If there's one set that defies the normal "rules" it's the 7 year old 10188. And as for the possibility of it being immediately replaced, where there's smoke there's probably fire. After all, it's not really a true collector's set like the UCS models, it's an expensive dollhouse for kids with wealthy parents. As others have mentioned, it's in some ways the City Police Station of the Star Wars lineup.

One suggestion that people keep making that I think is probably wrong is that a new Death Star would be a model of one that appears in Episode 7. I can't see them releasing a $400+ set based on a new Star Wars movie. It's a huge gamble if the films are universally panned like the prequels. The vast majority of large Star Wars sets have been from the original trilogy because those films have the widest appeal. Even if Episode 7 is good, the original trilogy will still have more fans based on nostalgia alone.

In any case, it looks like there will finally be some action on this set this year, one way or another. I'll probably just watch it from the sidelines, personally.

[GhostDad]

Trek, I don't think you have anything to worry about.  Your investing instincts, from what you've posted here over the last year or so, are pretty solid.  Let's take the worst case scenario for a second.  SDS (super death star) comes out next year.  It's 5000 pieces, with a fully covered exterior, for $600 and opens in halves for play.  But the scenes inside are all from the Rogue Squadron movie.  In this worst case scenario, 10188 suffers a bit, by which I mean it falls somewhere between SSD and R2 in appreciation.  You sell for $700 six months after retirement and move on to the next set.  I wouldn't lose sleep over that.

@‌bricketycricket: The problem is, all the 'smoke' is coming from one anonymous source.  It would also be pretty bizarre for lego to release a DS with scenes from Episode IV as a tie-in to a Rogue Squadron movie that features a death star.  One piece of info we do have that I think contradicts the idea of a new DS coming next year with OT scenes, is the new final duel set due out shortly.  It's a rather large standalone DS scene to have on store shelves alongside an OT death star.

Edited May 7, 2015 by GhostDad

[Brickson]

If you exclude Target and LEGO Shop at Home who might be the only 2 with inventory right now (I have not checked this week), assuming they both disappeared and did not restock please provide a long current list of mom and pop internet or brick and mortar locations that I can currently scoop bessie up and add 20 to my stock and links...

​Sure you will. Weren't you just questioning that decision and now you're going to scoop more up?

I believe.

It bothers me as I have been stockpiling DS's of late and am questioning that decision.

​

Edited May 7, 2015 by Brickson

[trekgate502]

​Sure you will. Weren't you just questioning that decision and now you're going to scoop more up?

​

No I'm not going to buy more now I am theorizing and I am asking you to show me now before it has retired where are all the places in Midwest America that I can scoop it up if I wanted to excluding target and Lego who would go out of stock.  If you could back up your statement it would make me feel easier about not acquiring more right now.  Yes I am in a quandary and I am not sure what my thoughts are on investing add more or dump some of what I have.  Looking to your statement could allow me to hedge waiting to get more and see how it plays out but there is nowhere in The Midwest that I am aware of that Death Stars are just lying around.  If it exists it would be helpful to know.

[trekgate502]

Trek, I don't think you have anything to worry about.  Your investing instincts, from what you've posted here over the last year or so, are pretty solid.  Let's take the worst case scenario for a second.  SDS (super death star) comes out next year.  It's 5000 pieces, with a fully covered exterior, for $600 and opens in halves for play.  But the scenes inside are all from the Rogue Squadron movie.  In this worst case scenario, 10188 suffers a bit, by which I mean it falls somewhere between SSD and R2 in appreciation.  You sell for $700 six months after retirement and move on to the next set.  I wouldn't lose sleep over that.

@‌bricketycricket: The problem is, all the 'smoke' is coming from one anonymous source.  It would also be pretty bizarre for lego to release a DS with scenes from Episode IV as a tie-in to a Rogue Squadron movie that features a death star.  One piece of info we do have that I think contradicts the idea of a new DS coming next year with OT scenes, is the new final duel set due out shortly.  It's a rather large standalone DS scene to have on store shelves alongside an OT death star.

Thanks GD

[bricketycricket]

@‌bricketycricket: The problem is, all the 'smoke' is coming from one anonymous source.  It would also be pretty bizarre for lego to release a DS with scenes from Episode IV as a tie-in to a Rogue Squadron movie that features a death star.  One piece of info we do have that I think contradicts the idea of a new DS coming next year with OT scenes, is the new final duel set due out shortly.  It's a rather large standalone DS scene to have on store shelves alongside an OT death star.

​I wouldn't infer much from the final duel set, it could just be Lego trying to hit a price point; most people can't afford a Death Star.

I agree with what you're saying: It WOULD be bizarre for Lego to follow up 10188 with a new DS of any sort. There are so many good reasons for why it makes zero sense. But 10188 is basically the most bizarre and anomalous set ever so I'm willing to stretch my imagination farther than I would if it were any other set. I think you can make plausible arguments on both sides of this debate though and I wouldn't blame anyone for stocking up on 10188 under the assumption that it won't be immediately superseded by a newer, better set. But I'm risk averse to a fault so I won't be.  

Edited May 7, 2015 by bricketycricket

[GhostDad]

Yeah, it's a funny thing.  I always learn a lot from these threads, even if it's not immediately clear what do with the information.  I watched some more of J2G's youtube videos, and they seem like reasonable lego review videos.  But the all-text one about the new DS seemed more like trolling, with the phrase 'my condolences if you bought the 2008 set'.  I don't like that approach to conveying information, regardless of its accuracy.  And I don't think Lego would choose to release information through an approach like that.  Why would Lego tell everyone to save their money and not buy 10188, 'cause a bigger and better replacement is due out next year?  Making your fans feel stupid for buying your product is not good brand building.

So this is not an 'official' leak.  It could be based on something as simple as that ad copy with the enclosed lego death star in the background.  Anyway, I've got a lot of death stars, and I'm not worried about them.  If this rumor means I have less competition down the line, I'm cool with that.

Edited May 7, 2015 by GhostDad