10188 - UCS: Death Star

[johnwray]

Hey it can't be ruled out either. When the DS came out and someone was to say it would last for six plus years people would say no way. The DS is the most recognizable name in SW and this set speaks to both kids and adults. Lego might just run all the way with this one.

 

Strongly disagree, two words - Millennium falcon

 

A few more words: Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader, R2-D2, Han Solo, Princess Leia, C3-P0, Yoda...

[Cashmoney-0]

Ask the guy who watched the movie when it first came out 35years ago and see if he actually remembers the name millennium falcon. Death Star it's much easier for people to remember plus it was practically all about episode IV and VI were about. There were no movies revolving around the MF.

[Crustybeaver]

The DS is the most recognizable name in SW and this set speaks to both kids and adults. Lego might just run all the way with this one.

 

The Falcon and even some of the characters are more symbolic of Star Wars. DS will retire, there have been many sets before this that were a cash cow for Lego but this will be retired, just like all before it. 

[Sauromosis]

Been managing money for 12 years and i am ready to move clients to fixed assets and call it a day. The risks are tremendous, yet opaque. Not much is real anymore. New risks for lego investing are emerging, but i think i'll be cashed in so speak before they really pose a threat.

 

Are you referring to increased supply/hoarding and a decrease in the buying public?

[naf]

Valar morghulis - all sets must retire.

 

The DS will retire, all Lego sets do.  Even if it is a top seller it won't stay that way forever, eventually the set will look dated (it arguably already does), and the market will be saturated.  This set will do well, eventually.  I don't like this set as an investment because I feel like its going to be a very long hold before you see great gains on it.

[Sauromosis]

Valar morghulis - all sets must retire.

 

The DS will retire, all Lego sets do.  Even if it is a top seller it won't stay that way forever, eventually the set will look dated (it arguably already does), and the market will be saturated.  This set will do well, eventually.  I don't like this set as an investment because I feel like its going to be a very long hold before you see great gains on it.

 

 

Lego Morghulis

[Follows Closely]

Let us see what Google has to say:

death star - About 221,000,000 results (0.32 seconds)
millennium falcon - About 8,180,000 results (0.31 seconds)

 

The death star in its current form will go away, it has to. The figs are outdated, the price point is outdated and look at the box. There will come a time were it is no longer an economic advantage to Lego to continue to keep it on the shelf. I would be surprised if it was still around at this point next year.

[lego rules]

Valar morghulis - all sets must retire.

 

The DS will retire, all Lego sets do.  Even if it is a top seller it won't stay that way forever, eventually the set will look dated (it arguably already does), and the market will be saturated.  This set will do well, eventually.  I don't like this set as an investment because I feel like its going to be a very long hold before you see great gains on it.

 

That's what many people thought about the Fire Brigade.

[pharmjod]

There is a slight difference between a $149 set jumping to almost $300 and a $400 set jumping to $800. Just sayin.

[BrickSapper]

For an simple money manager - both are 100% ROI.

[waddamon]

Are you referring to increased supply/hoarding and a decrease in the buying public?

No, the risks that I see to investing in this "illiquid" luxury asset, is currency risk.  I believe that the dollar is on a crash course to devaluation in the future (not good for America).  Time line is fuzzy, but all of the signs are pointing in the same direction.  That being said selling illiquid luxury toy assets in a situation like that is not good at all.  I am hoping that my timelines and expectations hold true.  I plan to exit the majority of my LEGO holdings 3-5 years from now.  I do not want illiquid investments that are denominated in dollars when that time comes.

[exciter1]

No, the risks that I see to investing in this "illiquid" luxury asset, is currency risk.  I believe that the dollar is on a crash course to devaluation in the future (not good for America).  Time line is fuzzy, but all of the signs are pointing in the same direction.  That being said selling illiquid luxury toy assets in a situation like that is not good at all.  I am hoping that my timelines and expectations hold true.  I plan to exit the majority of my LEGO holdings 3-5 years from now.  I do not want illiquid investments that are denominated in dollars when that time comes.

 

You're sounding more and more like a flipper every day.

[GhostDad]

No, the risks that I see to investing in this "illiquid" luxury asset, is currency risk.  I believe that the dollar is on a crash course to devaluation in the future (not good for America).  Time line is fuzzy, but all of the signs are pointing in the same direction.  That being said selling illiquid luxury toy assets in a situation like that is not good at all.  I am hoping that my timelines and expectations hold true.  I plan to exit the majority of my LEGO holdings 3-5 years from now.  I do not want illiquid investments that are denominated in dollars when that time comes.

I hate the Fed as much (or more) as the next guy, but...  Isn't a retired 10188 a decent hedge against what you are describing?  If you're right about dollar troubles, and in the long run I think you probably are (no other way but devaluation/inflation for the US to get out its sickening fiscal situation), that just means I get to sell my 10188's for $2000 ($800 in today's dollars).  The guys who are snapping up SSD's right now for $670ish are not living paycheck to paycheck.  They'll still be doing fine when the US turns into Argentina.  There are other risks to Lego investing (COUNTERFEITING!!!), but a "real" asset like Lego seems ok in a currency devaluation paradigm.  Consider, for example, that if Lego rereleases the DS in, say, 2020, and the dollar is toilet paper, the new one will retail at $1000 or so.  In nominal terms, your 10188 bought at $400 will have done great (now worth $1000 + collectability premium for being the older set).  And in real terms, it still ought to be as good or better than most traditional inflation hedges.  I don't buy individual stocks, but I do follow them loosely, and the impression I get is that the "luxury" brands are doing much better than the dollar stores or Wal-Mart.  Honestly, I'd be more worried if I were stocking up on MISB toilet paper (by the way, US Customs seized a giant shipment of Chinese counterfeit Angel Soft awhile back, so don't think toilet paper is safe from counterfeiting)!

[emazers]

Every Long Term Investor should be buying the 10188 Death Star whenever you have the money, when it does retire its not going to take 3 years or longer to reach $800 or more, The Death Star price will rise fast. Look at all the guys who said it would take 3-5 years for the SSD to be a money maker. So everybody who who missed the boat on the SSD don't make the same mistake on the DS.How many people on here are regreting not buying these, I am sure there are plenty. "So Buy those DS"

[waddamon]

I hate the Fed as much (or more) as the next guy, but...  Isn't a retired 10188 a decent hedge against what you are describing?  If you're right about dollar troubles, and in the long run I think you probably are (no other way but devaluation/inflation for the US to get out its sickening fiscal situation), that just means I get to sell my 10188's for $2000 ($800 in today's dollars).  The guys who are snapping up SSD's right now for $670ish are not living paycheck to paycheck.  They'll still be doing fine when the US turns into Argentina.  There are other risks to Lego investing (COUNTERFEITING!!!), but a "real" asset like Lego seems ok in a currency devaluation paradigm.  Consider, for example, that if Lego rereleases the DS in, say, 2020, and the dollar is toilet paper, the new one will retail at $1000 or so.  In nominal terms, your 10188 bought at $400 will have done great (now worth $1000 + collectability premium for being the older set).  And in real terms, it still ought to be as good or better than most traditional inflation hedges.  I don't buy individual stocks, but I do follow them loosely, and the impression I get is that the "luxury" brands are doing much better than the dollar stores or Wal-Mart.  Honestly, I'd be more worried if I were stocking up on MISB toilet paper (by the way, US Customs seized a giant shipment of Chinese counterfeit Angel Soft awhile back, so don't think toilet paper is safe from counterfeiting)!

I disagree, a higher dollar amount in "Perceived" value is not the same in Real value or purchase power.  We are not currently in a period that I for see.  That being said the luxury market (LEGO included) has done very well.  This is due to other issues.  When the underlying currency that people base their lives on crumbles, they won't be buying LEGO.  This is of course my own opinion.  I desperately hope that I am wrong, for mine and my children's sake.  I don't think I am, and most people will be blindsided and crushed when it happens.

[Sauromosis]

Every generation thinks the world is going to end, some literally think that, but the generations keep on rolling along century after century.

[waddamon]

You're sounding more and more like a flipper every day.

If holding and selling over 3-5 years is a flipper than I accept.  Lego to me is always a midterm deal.  Only way this would change is if I amassed a size able inventory that would allow me to have an e-commerce business/retail store for retired  or almost retired product.

[exciter1]

If holding and selling over 3-5 years is a flipper than I accept.  Lego to me is always a midterm deal.  Only way this would change is if I amassed a size able inventory that would allow me to have an e-commerce business/retail store for retired  or almost retired product.

 

I was just meaning, the way you make it sound is that your LEGO investing is done and you won't be rolling any of those profits into other LEGO investments.

[waddamon]

I was just meaning, the way you make it sound is that your LEGO investing is done and you won't be rolling any of those profits into other LEGO investments.

Ahhh, I see now.  At this point I am not rolling profits into other sets.  I will add additional exclusives next year to top of the next run up of hopeful retirements and that will be it.  I have specific plans for this investment course and it is not an ongoing year over year plan.  When I exit my positions I will be allocating those total dollars into other areas.  Down the road I may pick up some singular sets (tumbler in late 2016 as an example)  30-40 of these.  Plans change though and you never really know what is coming down the road.

[Darth_Raichu]

If holding and selling over 3-5 years is a flipper than I accept. Lego to me is always a midterm deal. Only way this would change is if I amassed a size able inventory that would allow me to have an e-commerce business/retail store for retired  or almost retired product.

Holding for 3-5 years is NOT flipping. The flippers do not want to be associated with you either

Seriously though, you were not the first one I heard uttering the same sentiment about business and economy.

[BrickLegacy]

I wonder how many people who bought the DS at 20-30% off 2-3 years ago have dumped them to clear up shelf space?  I have to imagine there are some who lost patience, got out of the game, or simply wanted to reinvest their money elsewhere and dumped them for a small loss. If they did, it could help it's long term value.

 

I'm guessing that anyone who recently got into this (within the past year or two) probably has very few of these, if any.  It's expensive, hardly anyone promotes it as an investment on this site, and it's widely available and rarely discounted anymore.  Those are all fine ingredients for a successful investment if, and only if, there isn't a large amount of veteran investors with piles of these.

 

Disclaimer: I have only one and I purchased it off AWD that is a Christmas present for my son in 2015.

[Darth_Raichu]

I wonder how many people who bought the DS at 20-30% off 2-3 years ago have dumped them to clear up shelf space?  I have to imagine there are some who lost patience, got out of the game, or simply wanted to reinvest their money elsewhere and dumped them for a small loss. If they did, it could help it's long term value.

 

I'm guessing that anyone who recently got into this (within the past year or two) probably has very few of these, if any.  It's expensive, hardly anyone promotes it as an investment on this site, and it's widely available and rarely discounted anymore.  Those are all fine ingredients for a successful investment if, and only if, there isn't a large amount of veteran investors with piles of these.

 

Disclaimer: I have only one and I purchased it off AWD that is a Christmas present for my son in 2015.

Well, some people got these at 30% discounts not long ago *Hint* BN

[exciter1]

Disclaimer: I have only one and I purchased it off AWD that is a Christmas present for my son in 2015.

 

I only have one and I have video where some guy smashed a Super Star Destroyer into it.

[waddamon]

Every generation thinks the world is going to end, some literally think that, but the generations keep on rolling along century after century.

Never in the history of mankind have we had a Reserve currency like the dollar has been, nor in the history of mankind on this earth has the total derivatives/ rehypothecated debts been 742,000,000,000,000.00. (that is trillion) aghhhhhh!!!!  Bigger number than all of the assets of the whole world.  Any way I love the DS and have my allocation, go Death Star EOL.

[Cashmoney-0]

Let us see what Google has to say:

death star - About 221,000,000 results (0.32 seconds)

millennium falcon - About 8,180,000 results (0.31 seconds)

 

The death star in its current form will go away, it has to. The figs are outdated, the price point is outdated and look at the box. There will come a time were it is no longer an economic advantage to Lego to continue to keep it on the shelf. I would be surprised if it was still around at this point next year.

Google does not lie, the DS is more than likely the most recognizable in SW. According to Brickshow news, the DS will still be around until the first quarter of 2016! The DS retirement date has consistently been put off...because they sell well! Most of the bricks are easy for Lego to make so they will keep the same design, replace the old figs with the new ones, and making a new box design, which would save a whole lot of money and a whole lot of time for Lego, I would not be surprised if they do that. This has been on the market for the longest time, and at this point, it may very well stay on the market. And if a new DS comes out in the new movies, you can bet that Lego will be making that too.