10188 - UCS: Death Star

[fuzzy_bricks]

The DS certainly might stick around.  The problem with this sort of advice is that, if I had watched the SSD retirement video when he first released it, I would have learned that the DS was on the "short list" for retirement.  Maybe I would have run out and bought lots of them.  Then today he says it will be around until 1Q 2016. 

I understand that you want concrete information so you can minimize risk, but that's not the way this works.  You need to take into consideration the information you get and analyze it for yourself, then develop your plan.  You can wait until the last minute to try and buy sets, but you run the risk of not getting the quantity, or any, of the the ones you want.

 

If you think it's retiring and you want one, buy it now.  If you believe the Brickshow, then wait.

I believe them, so I'll wait till the next double, hopefully triple VIP point promo.

[Ed Mack]

I think that's a good idea (to distinguish between concrete statements of fact versus predictions for the future).  It would make it easier for viewers to act on the advice presented in the videos.  As someone who doesn't own any SSD's, I wish I had watched your SSD retirement video in April.  On the other hand, if what you say now is correct, then I'm glad I didn't rush out and buy DS's.  In short, I'll add Brickshow to the list of sources I follow.  More information is always helpful.  It's just hard to know how much weight to give one person's opinion over another.  You cite a Lego store source in the SSD retirement video; most brickpickers seem to dismiss the opinions of Lego store employees out of hand.  It certainly appears that you were right about the SSD retiring; on the other hand, both from my own observations and the reports of others, I doubt that Lego today has any "firm" plans for 2016.

Sources that we use are more than just minimum wage "LEGO store employees."  But upper management can change production runs without notifying local store and ITD managers, so anything can change.  LEGO does an excellent job of muzzling its employees.  All we can do is take all the information presented and make an educated guess about future EOL dates.  

[toycrazedchris]

Darth Vader is dead, dammit.  There is cloning in the SW universe, but all his DNA got blown to bits when the DS2 blew up (yes, he left his toothbrush back on the Executor and that could have been a source of Vader DNA, except that ship blew up too!).  I don't think he gets to come back.  One thing lacking in the SW universe is time travel, which is what it would take.  As for a third DS, who would build it?  The Empire no longer has the resources for a project of that scale, and the New Republic has all sorts of moral objections to blowing up entire planets, which was the DS's only purpose.  Besides which, ending yet another SW movie with an attack on a DS would be unoriginal to say the least.

 

Didn't you once say the Executor SSD was insignificant in the movies? If so, I think you lost your SW posting privileges.. hahaha

[GhostDad]

Didn't you once say the Executor SSD was insignificant in the movies? If so, I think you lost your SW posting privileges.. hahaha

It was insignificant.  All it did was blow up.  Look, the DS obliterated Alderaan.  That's significant.  All the Executor did was shuttle around Darth Vader and then blow up.  An Imperial Shuttle could have done that just as well.

[GhostDad]

I understand that you want concrete information so you can minimize risk, but that's not the way this works.  You need to take into consideration the information you get and analyze it for yourself, then develop your plan.  You can wait until the last minute to try and buy sets, but you run the risk of not getting the quantity, or any, of the the ones you want.

 

If you think it's retiring and you want one, buy it now.  If you believe the Brickshow, then wait.

I believe them, so I'll wait till the next double, hopefully triple VIP point promo.

This is exactly what I was talking about though.  If Brickshow (for example) can provide concrete advice (note the word "concrete" was his, not mine), then great.  That puts him a cut above the average speculator.  But it also means it's fair to judge him based on past predictions, and his current DS prediction is a reversal of his April DS prediction.  Perhaps that is because Lego reversed itself.  Either way, the question remains: if the April prediction was wrong, why should the new prediction be any different?

[No More Monkeys]

Even with SSD it was tricky. TLC did manage to make 19R4/20R4 run of SSD _after_ the show was quite confident that it is on the way out. Technically, they were still correct, but this gets to a point of "every set is on the way out" prediction

[mc1fan22]

I'm gonna have to agree with Ed here (one of his previous posts). There's not point in retiring it right now. There's nothing to the same scale to replace it and there are still plenty of grandmas out there willing to buy this for little Timmy when Christmas comes around. I'm not saying it will be around until Q1 2016 either. Nobody knows when it will retire, but I don't see why it couldn't hang around until 2016. Of course me personally, next time we get a double or triple VIP sale, that's when I'll ****** one up, regardless if it'll be around for another year.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[No More Monkeys]

I'm gonna have to agree with Ed here (one of his previous posts). There's not point in retiring it right now. There's nothing to the same scale to replace it and there are still plenty of grandmas out there willing to buy this for little Timmy when Christmas comes around. I'm not saying it will be around until Q1 2016 either. Nobody knows when it will retire, but I don't see why it couldn't hang around until 2016. Of course me personally, next time we get a double or triple VIP sale, that's when I'll ****** one up, regardless if it'll be around for another year.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

We should also see whether or not TLC is going to renew "no discount on exclusives" policy comes Jan 1st...  that may sway the decision on the timing of purchases. But something tells me that TLC might realize that they could move huge volumes even at MSRP if they play "availability and rumors" game right

[33Lego]

It was insignificant.  All it did was blow up.  Look, the DS obliterated Alderaan.  That's significant.  All the Executor did was shuttle around Darth Vader and then blow up.  An Imperial Shuttle could have done that just as well.

SSD is his big BENZ

 

Imperial Shuttle might be a compact car like Honda Civic, Mini.

[fuzzy_bricks]

This is exactly what I was talking about though.  If Brickshow (for example) can provide concrete advice (note the word "concrete" was his, not mine), then great.  That puts him a cut above the average speculator.  But it also means it's fair to judge him based on past predictions, and his current DS prediction is a reversal of his April DS prediction.  Perhaps that is because Lego reversed itself.  Either way, the question remains: if the April prediction was wrong, why should the new prediction be any different?

If Lego changed their mind, I wouldn't say they were wrong in April.  Based on the info they had, it was speculated that the set would retire in the coming months, but they did not say it would for sure.  They got new information and are sharing it, which I appreciate, I don't believe they made this prediction out of thin air.

[Darth_Raichu]

This is exactly what I was talking about though. If Brickshow (for example) can provide concrete advice (note the word "concrete" was his, not mine), then great. That puts him a cut above the average speculator. But it also means it's fair to judge him based on past predictions, and his current DS prediction is a reversal of his April DS prediction. Perhaps that is because Lego reversed itself. Either way, the question remains: if the April prediction was wrong, why should the new prediction be any different?

If you think his predictions / news are faulty, then just ignore them going forward. Simple.

[Ed Mack]

I think all of us have to put this in perspective...We are discussing the 10188 Live Star.  It will never retire and is the exception to every LEGO investment rule.  Trying to figure out EOL of this set is a futile and a waste of time.  Every other set plays by the same rules...basically getting retired after a couple of years and being replaced by something new.  That is how LEGO stays successful.  You need to retire old.sets to produce new sets.  The 10188 must be so damn popular that it would be foolish to stop production.  I bet the renewed interest in the STAR WARS theme has reinvigorated sales as well.  Move onto other sets people...

[mc1fan22]

Exactly, No More Monkeys. There is potential for TLC to make big profits by playing with the availability.

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[newbie77]

looks like people are cancelling their orders LOL ... the ship date moved back from september 6th to august 26th.

[GhostDad]

looks like people are cancelling their orders LOL ... the ship date moved back from september 6th to august 26th.

A classic play by Lego.  They realized that DS had sold too fast with a limit of 5 and wouldn't make it to the end of 2014 like they had planned, so they leak that it will be around until 2016.  The investors return their sets, probably in great condition (who takes better care of MISB sets than investors?), and refill Lego's warehouses.  Now, with the topped up stock of DS sets and new limit of 2 per customer, they can at least offer them through the summer and fall, while devoting their production lines to the new Tumblr, rumored UCS Slave 1, and so on.  As an added bonus, Lego gets to find out for sure who the dastardly resellers are (end users don't return sets just because they hear the production run has been extended).  Well, played, Lego, well played.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I think all of us have to put this in perspective...We are discussing the 10188 Live Star.  It will never retire and is the exception to every LEGO investment rule.  Trying to figure out EOL of this set is a futile and a waste of time.  Every other set plays by the same rules...basically getting retired after a couple of years and being replaced by something new.  That is how LEGO stays successful.  You need to retire old.sets to produce new sets.  The 10188 must be so damn popular that it would be foolish to stop production.  I bet the renewed interest in the STAR WARS theme has reinvigorated sales as well.  Move onto other sets people...

 

Agreed. Having one or two makes sense as a just in case something crazy happens.

 

However, having like 25-30 is really pushing it.

[No More Monkeys]

Change of the ship date does not have that much significance. About a week ago, death star switched between 2 different ship date about 25+ times, in a _single_ day

And don't even get me started about GE...

[MartinP]

However, having like 25-30 is really pushing it.

Unless you emazers. He will probably buy more until it retires (if it does).

[newbie77]

Change of the ship date does not have that much significance. About a week ago, death star switched between 2 different ship date about 25+ times, in a _single_ day

And don't even get me started about GE...

of course don't want to get anything started but thought of mentioning. although, it doesn't make much difference to some but it may make it to some "like me" who are actually waiting for their order. now i don't have to wait till sept 6th since that was the date when i placed my order. i should get before. and in time for my b'day he he he

[stephen_rockefeller]

My apologies if this has already been posted

LEGO Death Star Retirement EOL Date:

[GhostDad]

My top secret source at Lego just told me the Death Star officially retired yesterday.  When I expressed skepticism, he replied that he "found my lack of faith disturbing."

[inversion]

My top secret source at Lego just told me the Death Star officially retired yesterday.  When I expressed skepticism, he replied that he "found my lack of faith disturbing."

Yesterday noon I cut open the belly of a sparrow and divined from its steaming intestines that the day DS retires will come when the mighty stallion turns its head to the east standing on the sacred hill. Damn forecasts... why do you have to be always so obscure?

[legopocalypse]

My apologies if this has already been posted

LEGO Death Star Retirement EOL Date:

 

Didn't they also predict it would go EOL when the Ewok Village arrived?

[forthofer]

@legopocalypse  - Yes, a prediction is a guess. We were wrong on that prediction that was based on just our opinion. This is different. If this proves to be untrue, then our source will no longer be used. Gotta lot of pressure on us now. 

[GhostDad]

@forthofer (Brickshow, I assume): This is somewhat off-topic, but there is an issue that has become more and more of a concern lately as the problem seems to be growing by leaps and bounds.  I'm referring to the increased counterfeiting of Lego minifigures and, lately, complete "MISB" sets.  For example, if you run an eBay search for emma's horse trailer:

 

 

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=emma%27+horse+trailer&_osacat=0&_from=R40&_from=R40&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1313.TR0.TRC0.H0.Xemma%27s+horse+trailer&_nkw=emma%27s+horse+trailer&_sacat=0

 

This is a set that is officially "retired", but the counterfeits are very much still in production.  In fact, almost all the eBay sales of this set are for the counterfeit Chinese version.  This is far from the only example of a retired set that continues in production as a counterfeit carbon copy, easily available to US buyers through eBay and Amazon (#6866 - Wolverine's Chopper Showdown is another one, and there are many, many more).  As this trend continues to escalate, at some point it will become a purely academic issue as to whether a set has officially retired or not.

 

My question for you is: Do you know, through your own experience or contacts at Lego, any way we (Lego collectors/investors) can get the company to take this seriously?  Most of the Chinese counterfeit sellers on eBay seem to have been around for over a year, and many are "top rated sellers".  They are apparently not having any trouble at all maintaining their seller's accounts in good standing, despite the blatantly obvious criminality of what they are doing.  I have called Lego about this a couple times, using the 800 number at their website (1-800-835-4386), and the Lego reps always sound very concerned and promise to pass on my comments.  Still, nothing actually seems to get done as far as enforcement actions.  It seems incredible to me that Lego is so unconcerned about counterfeiting of their products on a massive scale, but that seems to be the case.  Do you have any insight into this problem or what brickpickers can do about it?