10188 - UCS: Death Star

[33Lego]

Target mystery algorithm.

 

Maybe a bug in their system, lol

[GhostDad]

my observation, which is very basic, is that Target raises prices of Lego Sets when they are not available @ other major retailers. if the same items becomes available at other places for more than few days they will change the price back to their original MSRP or target's selling price.

 

they want to scalp as much $$ from resellers/investors.  recent example would be LEGO 9496. although it went OOS @ other retailers around april/may. Target had it and raised it to $34 or $37 something like that. eventually they realized no one is going to take/buy them @that price. hence they cleared it out for $16.99 .at some point for them inventory and # of items will be an issue so better to clear them @ cost rather than keep for few years.

 

with regard to exclusives, they figured there will be pent up demand so why not hold last shipment and get extra $$$. to recoup losses they incurred when they sold MHC @ 16.16

If this is all true (as it may be), it's unusually clever for a giant retailer like Target.  Maybe they recruited a full-time lego investor to handle their lego pricing?  (In all seriousness, that would pay for itself many times over).  Right now, I'm still thinking of Target jacking up the price as one more sign of a set's impending EOL.  By the end of the year, though, we should have a pretty good idea of how accurate this is.

[33Lego]

Target has their own IT division. And they do have some smart folks there.

 

I recall there is a article saying that Target knows a girl pregnant and sent baby ads.

 

While the girl's dad is really upset about what Target is doing. Month later, the dad apologized and said there are some activities he  was not aware of in his house.

[waddamon]

Well in one day went to ships in 30 days. Hopefully flips to sold out, that would be cool. No more pop ups on amazon.

[trekgate502]

Well in one day went to ships in 30 days. Hopefully flips to sold out, that would be cool. No more pop ups on amazon.

 

Waddamon Well thanks for the heads up.  I ordered another from LEGO Shop at Home but I am bummed.  Wanted to wait till the 1st to get another figure.  If it hasn't shipped by then I will call and ask to add the new free fig or if I can still order to cancel the order and I'll reorder with the fig.  Better safe than sorry.  I think it is going.

[waddamon]

Waddamon Well thanks for the heads up.  I ordered another from LEGO Shop at Home but I am bummed.  Wanted to wait till the 1st to get another figure.  If it hasn't shipped by then I will call and ask to add the new free fig or if I can still order to cancel the order and I'll reorder with the fig.  Better safe than sorry.  I think it is going.

since they are backordered you may as well wait for the first, since you won't be getting the ds any time soon.

[GhostDad]

since they are backordered you may as well wait for the first, since you won't be getting the ds any time soon.

Right, but you might not get a place in the queue at all if you wait too long.  As an aside, it seems that most 10188's ordered from major retailers ship in their individual brown Lego cases.  These have a white sticker on them that conveniently states the production date of the DS inside (so, no need to interpret seal codes, or even open the case at all).  In the case of a DS recently purchased from Amazon, the white sticker on the case states a production date of "7/14".

[waddamon]

Should be great to see what happens. In terms of "other" news i am hoping that the brickshows "source" on the DS is deathly wrong. I think they are, the fact that it is now a limit of two has me thinking they are wrong, but who really knows.

[trekgate502]

Should be great to see what happens. In terms of "other" news i am hoping that the brickshows "source" on the DS is deathly wrong. I think they are, the fact that it is now a limit of two has me thinking they are wrong, but who really knows.

I missed brick show opinion on DS. Can you advise?

[anon33]

Should be great to see what happens. In terms of "other" news i am hoping that the brickshows "source" on the DS is deathly wrong. I think they are, the fact that it is now a limit of two has me thinking they are wrong, but who really knows.

I recall the brickshow indicated the death star was on the "short" list

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Brickpicker mobile app

[anon33]

Short list as in on out the door...

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Brickpicker mobile app

[trekgate502]

I recall the brickshow indicated the death star was on the "short" list

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Brickpicker mobile app

That is what I thought. It looks like waddamon wants it not to retire. Maybe I misread. i am ready for it to go...

[legone]

Haven't you heard? On Youtube, 5 hours ago. Everybody is talking about it.

The President is going to address the nation about it tonight.

[trekgate502]

Haven't you heard? On Youtube, 5 hours ago. Everybody is talking about it.

The President is going to address the nation about it tonight.

Thanks a lot. I don't know why they don't list the videos in their emails lately or on their website.

Now I see they have done a lot directly in their YouTube channel that I have not seen..

Now onto presidents, Clinton is in my city getting a PGA award tonight.

Adds to all the Louisville ky traffic problems from the PGA itself,

Good times. No Death Star talk there I am sure.

[exciter1]

Why would they report retirement news for 2016???

 

1/2 price Death Stars, May 1, 2015.

[speedsausage]

Why would they report retirement news for 2016???

1/2 price Death Stars, May 1, 2015.

Probably because they are going to retire it sooner so the likes of you hoodlums won't be snatching it out of grandmas hands at Christmas time.

[waddamon]

I want it to retire NOW!!!! Not in 2016. I'll be at 30 shortly and would love for this large cap value to move north in price.

[33Lego]

what are we talking about ?

DS or SSD?

[speedsausage]

what are we talking about ?

DS or SSD?

Both at this point!

[GhostDad]

With the caveat that I have no idea what this brickshow guy's track record has been on previous calls like this, I will say that he is not terribly convincing in this "episode".  His logic seems to be that Lego would want to retire the DS in the first quarter of 2016 because the new SW movie will come out in December 2015.  Obviously the DS blew up way back in Episode IV, so it has no place in Episode VII.  But if you look at how Lego actually manages set releases, this makes no sense.

 

Fall 2015 (or earlier) will see a surge of new SW sets based on the new films, so the time to retire the DS would be then or slightly before, to avoid the issues he talks about such as lack of shelf/storage space for it, etc.  That could mean the DS lasts until sometime next year, but all the recent in/out of stock movement and online availability more or less only from Lego directly strongly hints at a retiring set, as opposed to one with another year and a half left in it.  Likewise with the recent reduction of the buy limit from 5 to 2; this does not seem like something Lego would do with a set that is to see another year and a half (almost the full life of most sets) of production.  It is exactly what they have recently done with the SSD and GE, and the HD a few months before it retired last year.  Tower of Orthanc may be an exception (since it is relatively new and Limit 2), or it may not; LotR as a theme appears to be just about done, with no new sets scheduled.

 

All this is aside from the general silliness of pretending that anyone at Lego, including the CEO, "knows" which sets now in production will still be so in 2016.  According to the brickshow guy's source, Lego just "decided" to extend the DS another two years.  Even if that's true, the company could obviously change its mind again and move the retirement date to next month.  The DS currently has a shipment date of 9/6 on LEGO Shop at Home, but a new batch of SSD sets will supposedly fill backorders around then too, and good luck actually placing a new order for one of those in the interim.

[asharerin]

Keeping 10188 around until 2016 would make alot of sense to keep the $399 price point alive until the MF playset is sold. 10188 has already been postponed 3 times so it is hardly suprising it is postponed yet again. 

[iahawks550]

Retiring this set before the new movie would seem (to me) to be a poor business decision.

[JM123]

Haha, remembers me someone on this forum advising an investor to either buy the Death Star or the SSD. His advise: 'Go for the SSD, the Death Star is like an old dog that just won't die'

Lol, suppose he was right then according to his information but have to agree with GhostDad that nobody really knows, unless you have a decent position at Lego. Future will tell..

For now I'm just glad that I focused on SSD's and don't have any Death Stars (yet). Waiting again for a decent deal somewhere in the following year and than I think it will be time to buy a couple (and yes I know there is a chance that I might miss the boat, but that's a risk I take).

[trekgate502]

I think there is someone (or more than one) people inside Lego who have the ultimate power to give the final EOL status to a set.  Yes there would be sales, production and everyone involved.  But someone would hit the final key that is a management sign off to turn a set to EOL status.

 

 

It would be a great job to have.

[fuzzy_bricks]

With the caveat that I have no idea what this brickshow guy's track record has been on previous calls like this, I will say that he is not terribly convincing in this "episode".  His logic seems to be that Lego would want to retire the DS in the first quarter of 2016 because the new SW movie will come out in December 2015.  Obviously the DS blew up way back in Episode IV, so it has no place in Episode VII.  But if you look at how Lego actually manages set releases, this makes no sense.

I don't think this is as crazy as you think it is.  There will be a ton of promo for the new moving leading up to it, the movie doesn't have to be "out" to sell a bunch of merchandise.  Leaving this set out there makes sense from the point that kids will be jazzed about the new movie and want SW stuff leading into Christmas.  Just because the DS blew up a couple times doesn't mean it can't come back again, although that may get a little old.

 

Fall 2015 (or earlier) will see a surge of new SW sets based on the new films, so the time to retire the DS would be then or slightly before, to avoid the issues he talks about such as lack of shelf/storage space for it, etc.  That could mean the DS lasts until sometime next year, but all the recent in/out of stock movement and online availability more or less only from Lego directly strongly hints at a retiring set, as opposed to one with another year and a half left in it.  Likewise with the recent reduction of the buy limit from 5 to 2; this does not seem like something Lego would do with a set that is to see another year and a half (almost the full life of most sets) of production.  It is exactly what they have recently done with the SSD and GE, and the HD a few months before it retired last year.  Tower of Orthanc may be an exception (since it is relatively new and Limit 2), or it may not; LotR as a theme appears to be just about done, with no new sets scheduled.

Sure there will be new SW sets, but with the SSD retired, this could be the largest one available, depending what is released between now and then.

 

All this is aside from the general silliness of pretending that anyone at Lego, including the CEO, "knows" which sets now in production will still be so in 2016.  According to the brickshow guy's source, Lego just "decided" to extend the DS another two years.  Even if that's true, the company could obviously change its mind again and move the retirement date to next month.  The DS currently has a shipment date of 9/6 on LEGO Shop at Home, but a new batch of SSD sets will supposedly fill backorders around then too, and good luck actually placing a new order for one of those in the interim.

Being that what sets are available for sale is what makes Lego money, I would assume they do care and have a plan, it would be foolish not to.  Yes they could revise that at a later date.