10188 - UCS: Death Star

[33Lego]

Im still betting on the fact that not both the DS and SSD are going this year. May be a mistake.

same here.

 

Also there is GE, VW to consider together.

[Ed Mack]

I agree with you. My guess is that the DS is going to stick around a little longer than the end of the year, and that the SSD will be retired on Lego's website by the turn of the year. SSD has shown basically all the signs of retirement, but I'm interpreting the DS as simple OOS and not EOL. Like DNIIM, I could be wrong. If you prefer the Ed & Ed investment strategy of buying large sets bright and early (which isn't a bad idea for those who have the space and capital to do so), I still wouldn't shy away from buying the DS. It will be a winner, no matter when it retires. 

I think what the Ed & Ed Investment Team likes to emphasize is that people should buy these large exclusives when the opportunity arises at a discount, even if the set is not close to EOL.  Double and Triple VIP points at LEGO S@H usually coincide with some generous promos, so that is always a good time.  I know many have limited budgets and/or space and this theory doesn't work for them, but for those who have the luxury of some extra cash and space to store these sets, it is never to early to start "hoarding" them.  

 

Plus, you never know when LEGO is going to do a limited production run and enable people to flip for short term profits.  I would like to point out that eBay is also a great place to find fairly priced exclusives.  Over the last several months I have found some great deals on sets like the 10188, Sydney Opera House, Sea Cow and others.  Maybe these sets were from ex-BrickPicker members who needed the cash and are getting out of the reselling business.

[johnwray]

I agree with you. My guess is that the DS is going to stick around a little longer than the end of the year, and that the SSD will be retired on Lego's website by the turn of the year. SSD has shown basically all the signs of retirement, but I'm interpreting the DS as simple OOS and not EOL. Like DNIIM, I could be wrong. If you prefer the Ed & Ed investment strategy of buying large sets bright and early (which isn't a bad idea for those who have the space and capital to do so), I still wouldn't shy away from buying the DS. It will be a winner, no matter when it retires. 

 

Yeah, it makes it easy to ride out these false EOLs. If I buy a couple Death Stars when it looks like it's retiring and then it doesn't, oh well--I have a couple more Death Stars. 

[comicblast]

Can anyone point to a time when Target.com jacked up a set's price to above RRP and that set did NOT shortly thereafter "retire" officially?  If not, it seems a reliable indicator.

In the past Target hasn't marked up sets, so we actually have no information whether or not it is reliable or not. In my opinion, it isn't reliable until it is proven that it is an actual indicator of retirement. Each to his own, and I suppose if you choose to rely on Target, so be it. 

[GhostDad]

Well, we now have Target.com marking up GE, SSD, DS, Emma's Horse Trailer...  Earlier in the year they marked up the Quinjet, and while they later dropped the price to clearance it out, the set was by then officially retired at shop.lego.com.  They also marked up the Lone Ranger train and Forest Police Station, in each case shortly before the sets were marked "retired" by lego.  Seems to me there's a track record here worth noting.

[waddamon]

Ds gone from amazon at RRP. Dang should have attempted to use the wifes account. Don't want to get banned from amazon.

[waddamon]

I am actually getting excited that the DS may actually be retiring.

[river41]

Can anyone point to a time when Target.com jacked up a set's price to above RRP and that set did NOT shortly thereafter "retire" officially?  If not, it seems a reliable indicator.

7939 was out of stock everywhere and target raised the price 100 dollars. It then came back for another year. I think that they just raise their prices based on algorithms depending on if it being sold elsewhere not on it being eol

[waddamon]

Picked up two more from amazon just now for RRP, gone now.  Should have been using the amazon CC this whole time.  Points add up quick.  A few more refreshes and I can call it a day.  GLTA.

[No More Monkeys]

Picked up two more from amazon just now for RRP, gone now. Should have been using the amazon CC this whole time. Points add up quick. A few more refreshes and I can call it a day. GLTA.

Note that amazon store card gives you 4% statement credit, which is somewhat better than points on amazon cc

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I am actually getting excited that the DS may actually be retiring.

 

There really isn't any sign that it is. You have to remember that the most likely reason its OOS everywhere is because everyone is jumping on them the moment they come in stock

[GhostDad]

This morning I drank a large mug of my "special tea", then closely examined the leaves stuck to the bottom.  Wouldn't you know it?  They spelled out "10188 EOL".  The Target.com method of divination is easier, but all the portents are in agreement on this one...

[waddamon]

There really isn't any sign that it is. You have to remember that the most likely reason its OOS everywhere is because everyone is jumping on them the moment they come in stock

if the signs for this one are not there, then the hu.dreds of pages of other eol sets are bunk as well. I beleive it is gone, time will tell. I trust my gut and my gut is not wrong very often. My logic on the other hand, wrong now and then. I would rather have 30 for when it does than none while ignoring well known operation and manufacturing structuring and implementation. This is why investing is diverse. Not everyone speculates the same. While everyone was chasing the same thing DS slowly disappeared evrywhere. Also, we are not talking about a new set like architecture studio. Not even the same discussion.

[waddamon]

Forgot to comment, the only way anything "ever" goes out of stock is people buying it. I am not so concerned with the buying as much as i am the manufacturing side.

[vmnlogan]

I am actually getting excited that the DS may actually be retiring.

Sorry to pop the bubble, everyone, but this thread should be on hold until probably the end of the year. I had a 10188 backordered from a 1 July order from Shop@Home that was just delivered today. I'm stoked that the box is going to be in pristine shape - the box it shipped in still has the brown Lego box inside it, and my DS is inside that box.

The Lego box has a sticker on the outside reading:

Production YYMM: 1407

Supplier: 372

Country: MEX

Date: 140705

Still crankin' them out, meaning you can expect them to make good on that projected end of month shipping date.

[waddamon]

How else would they fill back orders if they are not "filling back orders"  I rest my case on this one.  Invest as you will folks, celebrate or cry later.  People always think they have time to do something until all of the sudden that time is out.  Procrastination is a killer.  Happens in business personal life, investing, spending, debt. etc.  Of all the years this old dog has been produced when would be the best time to acquire some?  Folks can answer that question on their own.

[No More Monkeys]

Sorry to pop the bubble, everyone, but this thread should be on hold until probably the end of the year. I had a 10188 backordered from a 1 July order from Shop@Home that was just delivered today. I'm stoked that the box is going to be in pristine shape - the box it shipped in still has the brown Lego box inside it, and my DS is inside that box.

The Lego box has a sticker on the outside reading:

Production YYMM: 1407

Supplier: 372

Country: MEX

Date: 140705

Still crankin' them out, meaning you can expect them to make good on that projected end of month shipping date.

They are cranking out GE as well - 27R4. But good luck finding it outside of LEGO Shop at Home (target is now damn reseller, aparently. ..)

[Michalwroc]

25S4 received today in UK, sent from Germany

[GhostDad]

So Target.com has 21108 for $67.99.  Unless this set has just about the shortest Lego production run ever, it's probably not about to go EOL.  Assuming that's the case, this is a blow to the idea that Target.com only marks up exclusives when EOL is imminent.  10188 may in fact be close to EOL, but the fact that target has marked up its price for the set now seems a less compelling argument in support of that proposition.  (I feel personally let down by Target on this point; I thought we had an understanding).

[toycrazedchris]

Target got their DS reload.. $560 DS anyone?? Guessing this is part of the new 7/5 production run but I certainly won't be paying that much to find out.

[MartinP]

So Target.com has 21108 for $67.99.  Unless this set has just about the shortest Lego production run ever, it's probably not about to go EOL.  Assuming that's the case, this is a blow to the idea that Target.com only marks up exclusives when EOL is imminent.  10188 may in fact be close to EOL, but the fact that target has marked up its price for the set now seems a less compelling argument in support of that proposition.  (I feel personally let down by Target on this point; I thought we had an understanding).

That is unfortunate. It seems that Target marks up the prices of sets when they are low on stock or don't know if they will be getting more. I have observed this for the past year. That is my guess of why they mark up their prices. According to my prediction, when Target marks up the prices of their Lego sets, it could mean that the set is running low on stock, or it could mean that they will not be getting anymore. That is my prediction. Can it help when you are trying to figure out when a set will EOL? Sometimes, you just have to take it as a grain of salt.

[newbie77]

That is unfortunate. It seems that Target marks up the prices of sets when they are low on stock or don't know if they will be getting more. I have observed this for the past year. That is my guess of why they mark up their prices. According to my prediction, when Target marks up the prices of their Lego sets, it could mean that the set is running low on stock, or it could mean that they will not be getting anymore. That is my prediction. Can it help when you are trying to figure out when a set will EOL? Sometimes, you just have to take it as a grain of salt.

my observation, which is very basic, is that Target raises prices of Lego Sets when they are not available @ other major retailers. if the same items becomes available at other places for more than few days they will change the price back to their original MSRP or target's selling price.

 

they want to scalp as much $$ from resellers/investors.  recent example would be LEGO 9496. although it went OOS @ other retailers around april/may. Target had it and raised it to $34 or $37 something like that. eventually they realized no one is going to take/buy them @that price. hence they cleared it out for $16.99 .at some point for them inventory and # of items will be an issue so better to clear them @ cost rather than keep for few years.

 

with regard to exclusives, they figured there will be pent up demand so why not hold last shipment and get extra $$$. to recoup losses they incurred when they sold MHC @ 16.16

[toycrazedchris]

with regard to exclusives, they figured there will be pent up demand so why not hold last shipment and get extra $$$. to recoup losses they incurred when they sold MHC @ 16.16

 

I don't think they are holding shipments on exclusives since they are reliably coming back in stock around the same time (within days) as the other big online retailers. It may appear that way because their stock is lasting longer, which is obviously a result of their higher prices. I only pay attention to exclusives, so not sure how this all relates to smaller sets.

[waddamon]

The tell on thos one will be how long it stays in stock at lego.com. SSD did the same thing. We'll see.

[waddamon]

Well that was fast. Was available a few hours ago. Now out of stock again with future ship date.