10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Ciglione]

4 hours ago, Val-E said:

Price?

390 euro.

[Val-E]

 

[Ciglione]

What's with the korean flag?

[mezzaluna]

did you move @Val-E

[jaisonline]

6 hours ago, fantomas007 said:

I have succesfully sold all my 10 pieces for around EUR 400. Fortunatelly I have bought all around 336 and hold them for 1-3 years. So very small profit covering the inflation. But I dont want to see this s**t anymore... Lot of stress, lot of storage place, binding lot of money, and without interesting profit effect... The worst investition ever...

at least you were able to rid yourself of the problem.  10188 prices are only going to drop more.

 

[fantomas007]

12 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

at least you were able to rid yourself of the problem.  10188 prices are only going to drop more.

 

To be honest, I am surprised that people bought the 10188 for EUR 400... Even in middle Europe with horrible discounts is a good chance to buy new DS with 20% discount, i.e. for EUR 400. So I would think about buying the old version for maximum EUR 360 (because of the old figs). And there is a lot of resellers with big amount of 10188, which cannot wait for future increase - because there is no reason for a rise. The new version will be here for 6-10 years, then again a risk of a remake... The Death star is really dead for investments... 

 

[GhostDad]

Yeah, the Death Star didn't work out.  Right now I'm looking at around a $1,000 total loss on my DS stash.  Probably my biggest loss ever on a particular lego set.  Though you really need to put this sort of thing into perspective.  If losing $1,000 breaks the bank for you, you really should not be investing in anything.  I think that what makes Lego investing losses so psychologically painful is that most of us see our Lego inventory every day.  So a stack of Death Stars just sits there, mocking you, until you sell the sets, as opposed to something like health insurance premiums or property taxes that eat an ever-larger portion of your income each year, but without the daily reminder that you're being fleeced.  That said, Lego investing has been throwing up red flags all over the place this year.  Lego investing losses are minor in the overall scheme of things, but they're also becoming increasingly common, and that's obviously a bad sign.

[BrickLegacy]

I think that what makes Lego investing losses so psychologically painful is that most of us see our Lego inventory every day. 

I think the pain is the work on the backend just to list, pack and ship an item knowing you aren't making a dime for your efforts. It's as if the Queen is raking you back and forth over a hot bed of 10188 coals.

[newbie77]

10 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

 

I think the pain is the work on the backend just to list, pack and ship an item knowing you aren't making a dime for your efforts. It's as if the Queen is raking you back and forth over a hot bed of 10188 coals.

 

wait that won't be the worst of it.. wait till one gets a return request after you sold it ... and all the crap that should be dealt with.

[GhostDad]

4 hours ago, newbie77 said:

wait that won't be the worst of it.. wait till one gets a return request after you sold it ... and all the crap that should be dealt with.

Well, I assume the fraudulent return requests have peaked for this one.  Those would have been the people who paid $500+ for 10188, then saw the new one come out and the prices fall, and saw a chance to save $100.  They will of course burn in hell for all eternity.

[GhostDad]

On ‎10‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 2:20 PM, Val-E said:

i mentioned this on an another thread. DS in demand right now and its no BS. Raising the RRP of the new one was the biggest favour TLG did us, in context. I have sold all mie bar one for above original RRP and well above buy-in.

Some brave souls who are willing to stake it out will make good money buying cheap amid the panic and holding as there will always be people that want the 1st iteration.

I'm not buying more, but not selling yet either.  There is always risk in waiting, but it is generally not a brilliant investing move to sell into a panic.

[Caleb_1]

I sold my 3 Deathstars for 440 each, but buy in was 377€ (2 for 420€ in Legostore when they sold out everywhere), should have gone for Red5 and tumblers instead. 

[Val-E]

None of you have reinvested in Pet Shop, EV, SOH or SC right?

[Ciglione]

7 hours ago, GhostDad said:

Yeah, the Death Star didn't work out.  Right now I'm looking at around a $1,000 total loss on my DS stash.  Probably my biggest loss ever on a particular lego set.  Though you really need to put this sort of thing into perspective.  If losing $1,000 breaks the bank for you, you really should not be investing in anything.  I think that what makes Lego investing losses so psychologically painful is that most of us see our Lego inventory every day.  So a stack of Death Stars just sits there, mocking you, until you sell the sets, as opposed to something like health insurance premiums or property taxes that eat an ever-larger portion of your income each year, but without the daily reminder that you're being fleeced.  That said, Lego investing has been throwing up red flags all over the place this year.  Lego investing losses are minor in the overall scheme of things, but they're also becoming increasingly common, and that's obviously a bad sign.

And the space these biggies occupy in your stotage room. Especially when it is limited.

I am happy I got rid of them. Even when the profits were not as expected last year.  

[tractorboy]

There's just no point in holding 10188 as it's not going to make money until the new DS goes EOL. Even then gains will be slow and slim I suspect, as it will be competing with the new one on the secondary market. I'll probably keep one for the collection and that's about it. The other three I have, I'll happily sell for €380-€400 cash/collection only. I'll take my measly profit and move on.
 

[GhostDad]

6 hours ago, Val-E said:

None of you have reinvested in Pet Shop, EV, SOH or SC right?

You really hate everything, huh?

[LegoBro]

You really hate everything, huh?

Lol...@ghostdad curious to hear your mindset on investing on those sets after your experience with the DS. Are you just not going as deep now?

[Val-E]

18 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

You really hate everything, huh?

It´s a valid question. Just wondered what people are in such a hurry to cash in for.

[GhostDad]

5 minutes ago, LegoBro said:

 

 

Lol...@ghostdad curious to hear your mindset on investing on those sets after your experience with the DS. Are you just not going as deep now?

 

That's right.  I originally targeted 24 Death Stars but ended up with "only" 17.  Obviously I'm glad I at least don't have the last 7 sets.  Nowadays I target 10 of the larger sets, moving up to 16 if they seem especially promising (because of the set itself, discounts, etc.).  But most I simply don't buy at all (as in, 98% of non-exclusives and two-thirds of exclusives I pass on entirely).

The DS remake definitely surprised me, but I don't expect it to become a common problem.  If Lego does remake something as obscure as the Sandcrawler six months after retiring the current one, I'll probably stop investing in Lego altogether.  That would signify that the boys in Denmark have simply lost their minds.  In the meantime, I'd love to put more money in "real" investments instead, but look at the options!  Every financial asset is trading at the extreme end of its historical range.  If I could buy stocks right now at even 2013 valuations, I'd take the S & P over Lego in a heartbeat.  But that simply isn't an option.

[fantomas007]

15 minutes ago, Val-E said:

It´s a valid question. Just wondered what people are in such a hurry to cash in for.

Everything is better investment target than 10188, even Ninjago or Nexo. Or just keeping the money in the bank and waiting for future investment. Because 10188 has zero increase or even a decrease, and this will stay for long time, maybe forever. If new DS will retire after 10 years, than the secondary market will be flooded by new DS bought for 350-400 bucs, so again a bad situation for investors to 10188. Just few hardcore SW fans will buy 10188 - but we are talking about 1000 people, while there is 500 000 pieces in resellers storages...

10188 is just taking a place in storage room, which can be used for any other sets, and blocking a lot of money, which can be used to other sets. EVERY actual set has better potential than 10188. So even if i sold 10188 without a profit, its still better than just sitting on worst investment item ever.

[longshot]

The part out value if you sell on bricklink is probably the way to go with these IMO.

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, fantomas007 said:

Everything is better investment target than 10188, even Ninjago or Nexo. Or just keeping the money in the bank and waiting for future investment. Because 10188 has zero increase or even a decrease, and this will stay for long time, maybe forever. If new DS will retire after 10 years, than the secondary market will be flooded by new DS bought for 350-400 bucs, so again a bad situation for investors to 10188. Just few hardcore SW fans will buy 10188 - but we are talking about 1000 people, while there is 500 000 pieces in resellers storages...

10188 is just taking a place in storage room, which can be used for any other sets, and blocking a lot of money, which can be used to other sets. EVERY actual set has better potential than 10188. So even if i sold 10188 without a profit, its still better than just sitting on worst investment item ever.

I don´t agree. RRP of the new one is 499 and it will not be available outside SAH until at least January. Some people still don´t know it is out and Xmas is coming.

To me that means there is still a window to sell it for 450-500 euros between now and then. I sold 2 for well above 500 in the past 3 months - maye I got lucky but the demand is there. 

[asharerin]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I don´t agree. RRP of the new one is 499 and it will not be available outside SAH until at least January. Some people still don´t know it is out and Xmas is coming.

To me that means there is still a window to sell it for 450-500 euros between now and then. I sold 2 for well above 500 in the past 3 months - maye I got lucky but the demand is there. 

Yep this is the last window to jump ship before other retailers get stock before xmas. TLG now adds 20% to prices so retailers can discount 20% to move product (at least in the USA). The rehash will be available for $400 quite often during its life cycle.

[Ciglione]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I don´t agree. RRP of the new one is 499 and it will not be available outside SAH until at least January. Some people still don´t know it is out and Xmas is coming.

To me that means there is still a window to sell it for 450-500 euros between now and then. I sold 2 for well above 500 in the past 3 months - maye I got lucky but the demand is there. 

Ever thought about it could have something to do with your location? 

As mentioned before... here in northern europe this set is in a race to the bottom. And this race is going so well even Ferrari are keeping an eye.

[Val-E]

There´s only a race if there are sellers willing to undercut each other and burst the bubble. I just wonder what set they will get ants in their pants about when they have sold their DS´s so I can reduce my inventory first. I am guessing PS is high on the list.

If prices have remained higher here then it´s pure supply and demand - I have not seen anyone here run for the water as if they were being chased by a pack of lions on this set yet we do have a race to the bottom on 75105 MF, starting at 102 euros shipped.