10188 - UCS: Death Star

[justapilgrim]

at 549.99 a pop its only $522,490.50.........before fees. I thought I was bad having stock tied up in a dozen santa workshops

[waddamon]

I think it will work out once the next is released.  Won't be near the same with Lego track record thus far.  I'm 30 deep with solid expectations.  All in good time.

[brickshiftmama]

On April 18, 2016 at 7:12 PM, exciter1 said:

As Mondale would say, 10199, you are no 10188.

Pretty sure that was Lloyd Bentsen...just sayin'...

[exciter1]

17 minutes ago, brickshiftmama said:

Pretty sure that was Lloyd Bentsen...just sayin'...

So, enough time has passed I guess they morphed into the same politician.  Nice!

[brickology101]

DS is now $590 with Amazon prime. It was $550 until a few weeks back. I think we call this a pop guys. So, while we all wonder how this set is going to fare as an investment it is going up in value, albeit slowly, but surely.

[citymorgue]

It'll be many years before this thing ever sees any significant growth.  No matter how you skin the cat, there are thousands and thousands of these out there, and profits are going to continue to be slim for a good portion of the folks that got in at or around RRP.

And yes I know the horde effect played a small part in this, but I can bet you top dollar because this set was out for so long, people just kept on buying and buying and buying.  I think everyone underestimated the amount of sealed DS exist in the wild.

[Huskers1236]

I hope everyone makes money on 10188, but I'm glad I don't have any anymore except for our display model.  Takes up too much space for the time it's going to take to make decent earnings.  When you see a seller on Amazon with darn near 1000 of these at a modest earnings price(though he/she could raise price) you know you're going to have to be in it for the long haul. 

[exciter1]

1 minute ago, Huskers1236 said:

I hope everyone makes money on 10188, but I'm glad I don't have any anymore except for our display model.  Takes up too much space for the time it's going to take to make decent earnings.  When you see a seller on Amazon with darn near 1000 of these at a modest earnings price(though he/she could raise price) you know you're going to have to be in it for the long haul. 

Something tells me the account example provided above was a broker account and not an individual or company.

[Huskers1236]

Just now, exciter1 said:

Something tells me the account example provided above was a broker account and not an individual or company.

Explain.  I have no idea what a broker account in the world of Amazon would mean.  Thanks. 

[exciter1]

Just now, Huskers1236 said:

Explain.  I have no idea what a broker account in the world of Amazon would mean.  Thanks. 

Someone who has multiple providers or is selling for others, for fees, etc.

[Huskers1236]

1 minute ago, exciter1 said:

Someone who has multiple providers or is selling for others, for fees, etc.

Gotcha, that makes sense.  Thanks

Edit:  Are all those FBA usually?

Edited April 27, 2016 by Huskers1236

[exciter1]

3 minutes ago, Huskers1236 said:

Gotcha, that makes sense.  Thanks

Edit:  Are all those FBA usually?

That's one of the thing that makes me think it's a broker account, since they aren't storing or paying for storage for these items.

[BrickLegacy]

My confidence in this set is starting to build again.  The late 2015 restock definitely hurt its growth out of the gate but sales have been consistent on eBay, approaching the $575-600 mark over the past couple of weeks.  eBay has actually been higher than Amazon for a while but that gap has since closed.  I haven't seen "Internet Seller" as the lowest on Amazon so I can only assume they are auto-adjusting their price as sellers drop off. I agree with Exciter, its probably a drop-shipper or broker account of some kind. 

We can only speculate how many sellers have large stashes of 10188.  Nobody really knows.  Some of these sellers could have dumped their inventory last year when prices spiked before the restock.  Others could have already sold if their buy-in was low enough and they've been sitting on them for 2-3 years and want to reinvest that capital.  For LEGO to keep it around for so long I have to assume it was a popular set.  Like everyone else I'm interested in what the new version looks like.  If its an Assault on Hoth type of flop, I expect a bright future for 10188.  If its a home run, I think its still some slow and steady growth from here on out.  Either way, the general public doesn't know about a potential new Death Star on the horizon so $600 is a reasonable price for most collectors or affluent parents given the number of pieces, minifigures, and OT nostalgia/classic value.  Chances are most of these sets are being opened, displayed, and played with.  I think that helps the long-term growth prospects as well.

Feel free to disagree or provide counterpoints to the above.  I enjoy hearing everyone's perspective, whether you've invested in this set or not.

[exciter1]

4 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

Feel free to disagree or provide counterpoints to the above.  I enjoy hearing everyone's perspective, whether you've invested in this set or not.

I think it will do fine, or at least I'm willing to hold onto mine.  I'm happy with my buy-in point and I'm not afraid I'm going to lose $$$, so that's a safe place to be from an investment perspective.

[Ed Mack]

On 4/17/2016 at 5:35 PM, newbie77 said:

doesn't matter whether the pictures are crap or not LEGO

fact is there is going to be a re-release of

10252 Volkswagen Beetle [ older was 10187 current prices around US $900 ]

75159 Death Star [.... ]

which also means that TLG is really really trying to decimate "collector's" side of LEGO. they had done that with 1 set before but now if its going to be a repeat for others as well then we have to bid adieu to all the "buy & hold-forever strategy". even @Ed Mack will feel the pain. there is no way he can avoid having a set that is being re-released

 

Feel the pain?  LOL.  LEGO does not pay my bills and I can out wait most.   I'm not a fan of remakes and some of these new reissues could have been replaced with other comparable and fresh ideas, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.  Maybe the new VW Bug will be a POS and the old one will increase in value even more.  Same goes for the Snowspeeder.  A new Death Star has been expected and should be expected.  Complaining about the re-release of the Winter Toy Shop is one thing, but to complain about a remake of a Death Star when there is a new movie based on it being released in the same year is not fair to LEGO.  Regardless, LEGO is still producing some top notch creative stuff that will never be remade, so there will always be opportunities for those who invest wisely.  

[asharerin]

50 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

Feel free to disagree or provide counterpoints to the above.  I enjoy hearing everyone's perspective, whether you've invested in this set or not.

I would rather hold 10188 over Red 5, Ewok Villages or Sandcrawlers. I would rather hold other Lego exclusives that won't be remade over 10188 tho (although not many sets are safe from rehashes these days if we are being totally honest). Strange time to be a Lego investor.

[jaisonline]

11 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I would rather hold 10188 over Red 5, Ewok Villages or Sandcrawlers. I would rather hold other Lego exclusives that won't be remade over 10188 tho (although not many sets are safe from rehashes these days if we are being totally honest). Strange time to be a Lego investor.

 

strange time indeed.

i agree with all sets you mentioned except the sandcrawler.  all i'm saying is Jawas have a special place in many SW fan's hearts including mine.  we go crazy over sandcrawlers (regardless of toy maker).  the last lego 10144 sandcrawler reached $350+ MISB in 2013 before the news of the 2014 refresh. not too bad for a $139.99 set that was last available on amazon in may 2009.  many folks paid $115 or less.

the 1st death star is more iconic so 10188 will do fine if not directly refreshed (regardless of being available while Lincoln was still president).

[asharerin]

1 minute ago, jaisonline said:

 

agree with all sets you mentioned except the sandcrawler.  all i'm saying is Jawas have a special place in many SW fan's hearts including mine.  we go crazy over sandcrawlers (regardless of toy maker).  the last lego 10144 sandcrawler reached $350+ MISB in 2013 before the news of the 2014 refresh. not too bad for a $139.99 set that was last available on amazon in may 2009.

I would have agreed with you on Sandcrawler prior to TLG printing millions of Jawas for the advent calendars last year and all of the posts about buying up Sandcrawlers from new investors. I'd say Slave 1 with a good discount trumps it handily, but that one could very well hang around through the Fett spinoff movie.

[Armor]

I personally put more capital into the red5. My reason was 2 sets increasing will most likely have better gains over time. 1 large set has the problem of it being a hard pill to swallow. 

Also with the repeat x wings on the midscale, I think tlg would think twice about having 2 x wings and a larger one at the same time. Red 5 is better for me because I can better use my limited shelf space and I got the red trains with them.

[jaisonline]

 

2 hours ago, Armor said:

I personally put more capital into the red5. My reason was 2 sets increasing will most likely have better gains over time. 1 large set has the problem of it being a hard pill to swallow. 

Also with the repeat x wings on the midscale, I think tlg would think twice about having 2 x wings and a larger one at the same time. Red 5 is better for me because I can better use my limited shelf space and I got the red trains with them.

 

 

 

I think 10240 X-Wing's value will always have the first one (7191) capping it's appreciation ceiling. 10188 isn't a direct refresh of 10143 (ROTJ DS) so that helps.

[Armor]

the ceiling of 7191 is pretty high. To expect more than 5x on the red 5 is giving the set to much benefit in today market. Both the Death Star and Red 5 sets are heavily horded. The Death Star did have a few more years but a higher price. The death star ceiling will certainty be higher than the red 5 in the long run but I don't have the storage to hold many death stars for 8 years. Red 5 seems like the better set for a mid term hold and then sell them slowly in 2018 or 2019. I would rather buy 2 Red5 and 2trains/GBH than a Deathstar and 1 Train/GBH promo. 

[Kenxxx]

I'm quite pleased (and surprised) to see the DS moving up since retirement on March 18, 2016.  At that time (correct me if I'm wrong) I recall there were about 205 sellers (give or take) on Amazon at about $540?  Now, the lowest seller is at $597 (with shipping) and the number of sellers is down to 178.  That's a 10% gain in two months (and a 13% drop in the number of sellers).  I had predicted it would take "forever" to reach $575... so now I'm eating my words.

Anyone forecasting another 10% in the next 2 months?  That'd be around $657 (and 154 sellers) in mid July?

... also... does anyone have similar data for eBay?

Edited May 16, 2016 by Kenxxx

[marcandre]

3 minutes ago, Kenxxx said:

 

Anyone forecasting another 10% in the next 2 months?  That'd be around $657 (and 154 sellers) in mid July?

10188 is too big to fail. The government will step in and bail out investors if it does....

It all depends on the new set. If the rumored new Death Star is disappointing (or not even a Death Star) 10188 will continue to rise. I assume we will start to get more details on it soon.  

 

[jay4e]

11 minutes ago, Kenxxx said:

I'm quite pleased (and surprised) to see the DS moving up since retirement on March 18, 2016.  At that time (correct me if I'm wrong) I recall there were about 205 sellers (give or take) on Amazon at about $540?  Now, the lowest seller is at $597 (with shipping) and the number of sellers is down to 178.  That's a 10% gain in two months (and a 13% drop in the number of sellers).  I had predicted it would take "forever" to reach $575... so now I'm eating my words.

Anyone forecasting another 10% in the next 2 months?  That'd be around $657 (and 154 sellers) in mid July?

a lot depends on 75159.  but based on recent history many may be hedging their bets that the new DS will be a subpar, or not comparable.  overall I see steady growth building up to Rouge one and the new sets, and probably a slow down after that.

Edited May 16, 2016 by jay4e

[KShine]

7 minutes ago, Kenxxx said:

I'm quite pleased (and surprised) to see the DS moving up since retirement on March 18, 2016.  At that time (correct me if I'm wrong) I recall there were about 205 sellers (give or take) on Amazon at about $540?  Now, the lowest seller is at $597 (with shipping) and the number of sellers is down to 178.  That's a 10% gain in two months (and a 13% drop in the number of sellers).  I had predicted it would take "forever" to reach $575... so now I'm eating my words.

Anyone forecasting another 10% in the next 2 months?  That'd be around $657 (and 154 sellers) in mid July?

There was always great demand for this set (a decent premium was always there, whenever it would go out of stock) - so it isn't very surprising that it's done well.

At this point you have many end users still buying, as well as many re-sellers, grabbing up any that show up priced too low.

It is a big plus that it has performed so well in the face of the potential threat of a new & improved Death Star.