10188 - UCS: Death Star

[yang]

Dear BPers, have you thought about the possibility that after the sets reach the initial after retirement price: MSRP+tax+eBay fees+shipping, the value never goes up again no matter how long you hold the sets?

I don't think this idea is that insane anymore, considering over production, over hoarding, and possible remakes......

Well, that's when Lego investment dies.

[Bold-Arrow]

All roads lead to the bubble thread 

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Raptor Escape and Birds did just that and there will be more where they come from but the hit to miss ratio is definitely getting less favourable.

 

Exactly. You can't use hindsight until afterwards. I got my re and bids and ant man at more than 20 percent off so I made even more. My rule just makes my winners big winners

[asharerin]

18 minutes ago, yang said:

Dear BPers, have you thought about the possibility that after the sets reach the initial after retirement price: MSRP+tax+eBay fees+shipping, the value never goes up again no matter how long you hold the sets?

I don't think this idea is that insane anymore, considering over production, over hoarding, and possible remakes......

Well, that's when Lego investment dies.

I don't know about that starting price but we have seen complete price stagnation after the initial blips for 10197, 10211, 10224, 10225, 10228 etc, basically any set that has been hoarded. 

Santa's Workshop would be a good candidate for MSRP forever more tho.

[jeff_14]

6 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

Exactly. You can't use hindsight until afterwards. I got my re and bids and ant man at more than 20 percent off so I made even more. My rule just makes my winners big winners

I support and live this rule. The only time I buy sets between MSRP and less than a 20% discount is when they are sets that cannot be had at discount and are going to be winners. In Canada, you could not get any Jurassic World sets at discount unless you walked into the right Walmart at the right time. So I bought all my Raptor Escapes at MSRP, though I did technically get a discount on many of them by buying during the TRU Bricktober giveaway period. All depends on how you want to account for that freebie. 

[Battrax]

10 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I don't know about that starting price but we have seen complete price stagnation after the initial blips for 10197, 10211, 10224, 10225, 10228 etc, basically any set that has been hoarded. 

Santa's Workshop would be a good candidate for MSRP forever more tho.

On the other hand, 75055 ISD, 75054 AT-AT, 10241 Maersk EEE (and even the 10241 Red 5) have been selling at over MSRP for some time. I am not an expert by any means but this just seems to be more dependent on the set selected than everything. Being an "exclusive" alone does not seem to be an indicator of high appreciation, I agree.

 

Can we really take the 10188 to be the barometre of the whole market? I am curious to hear what the older hands have to say about it.

Edited March 21, 2016 by Battrax
Mmore typosd I needed to correntc

[pete411]

All I know is that I'm greatly reducing the number of large exclusives in my portfolio for just these reasons. As things stand now, all exclusives are hoarded. Every investor thinks that no matter how many sets of a large exclusive that you buy, you'll at least double your money within a year or two post retirement. We all know that isn't case anymore. The Lego investing game is now mostly about finding sets at well below RRP and flipping them for scant profit. With floor space limited at retailers and TLG releasing new sets every two months, hitting as many singles and doubles with "normal" sets is the way to go IMHO.

Can you make a decent profit when 3 years from now, the DS is sellling at $550 and PS is $220? By that time, I'll have flipped 10 Ant-Man sets into 20 Jedi Interceptors and so on and so forth.

Edited March 21, 2016 by pete411

[Rimmit]

6 minutes ago, Battrax said:

On the other hand, 75055 ISD, 75054 AT-AT, 10241 Maersk EEE (and even the 10241 Red 5) have been selling at over MSRP for some time. I am not an expert by any means but this just seems to be more dependent on the set selected than everything. Being an "exclusive" alone does not seem to be an indicator of high appreciation, I agree.

 

Can we really take the 10188 to be the barometre of the whole market? I am curious to hear what the older hands have to say about it.

I personally believe that 10188 is an enigma because no other set has been out for so long at such a high price point.  There is no other comparison.

That being said, in the 2 months that I have been back in this game since taking a hiatus from 2007-2016, a massive amount has changed in the market.  From endless remakes, battle packs, Brickpicker, WSJ articles, globalization of Ebay and Paypal, exclusive's galor, endless licensing, and the exponential growth of TLG it's been hard to get up to speed, but after two months of perusing the forums and I feel I am significantly more informed that two months ago.  I must say it's been a real eye opener for me in regards to just how different things are for Lego Resale than in the past. So much so, that I likely will not go "heavy" into Lego's due to the increased effort, and will just dabble enough to fund various hobbies and not feel guilty.

I agree with most people that the market is changing, and that exclusives while still a good bet, are no longer a SURE FIRE WINNER, and that only some exclusives can do well.  There has to be a high universal demand for said exclusive, such as The Tumbler and R5.  Something like ToO just isn't going to cut it as the demand isn't there.  High demand exclusives will continue to do well, but likely never perform like the "good ole days."

The best predictor of future performance is past performance.  75054 AT-AT and the Republic gunship have always appreciated after retirement, until the next remake comes along because they are always going to be high demand sets because of the iconic nature of the set. 

In short, 10188 is not a barometer for the whole market as there is no other set that was out for 8 years at a price point of $400 dollars, but other sets definitely have signaled that the winds are changing.

[emazers]

Look, I Have 60 Death Stars and 100% glad I do, now since 2008 there were plenty times to get them $300 and Lower, when Toys R US had those buy 2 get one free Exclusives were included, so that was about $280 a set, and when Barnes and Noble had them I got 16 for $262.00, so in 3-5 yrs if I can only make $300 on each one I am happy, but they should be $1000 and rising. Just look last year when the SSD retired how many guys on here were saying it would take 3 or more yrs to get to $700, and look at them now. Sure there are plenty out there but people are Cracking everyday just to make a few bucks. So you guys with just a few and selling them now I thing are making a huge mistake, and to sell to pay off your credit card bill, well the big rule is don't go in major debt to buy Lego unless you can pay it off when the bill comes. And guys who think the set should rise big bucks after a few months are living in a dream world. So Unless you have to sell for money that you need now hold on to them. I always stated buying is hard enough, but waiting without cracking is another thing.     Ed

[ISO8T0]

6 minutes ago, emazers said:

"Look, I Have 60 Death Stars...... "

This is a classic Emazers quote.

Love it.

 

"I always stated buying is hard enough, but waiting without cracking is another thing."

solid advice!

Edited March 21, 2016 by pstebbing

[Phil B]

I'm not sure what you are all worried about ... look, the instruction manuals alone are already at $868:

http://www.amazon.com/INSTRUCTION-MANUALS-Lego-10188-DEATH/dp/B00FQUMP20

 

[biking_tiger]

30 minutes ago, pete411 said:

Can you make a decent profit when 3 years from now, the DS is sellling at $550 and PS is $220? By that time, I'll have flipped 10 Ant-Man sets into 20 Jedi Interceptors and so on and so forth.

Every market has periods of expansion and contraction. Maybe not the DS or PS, but eventually, when enough resellers/investors follow suit with small ball, we will have a shortage of desired exclusives again and the market will flip. The game goes to the patient... speaking of patience:

17 minutes ago, emazers said:

 And guys who think the set should rise big bucks after a few months are living in a dream world.

The "gold rush" is never the easy money anyone expects. 

[Darth_Raichu]

1 minute ago, biking_tiger said:

Every market has periods of expansion and contraction. Maybe not the DS or PS, but eventually, when enough resellers/investors follow suit with small ball, we will have a shortage of desired exclusives again and the market will flip. The game goes to the patient...

... as long as you do not stock up on the Winter Village Toy Shop set

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

... as long as you do not stock up on the Winter Village Toy Shop set

touché

Of course, knowing when to sell is part of selling.

[exciter1]

1 minute ago, biking_tiger said:

touché

Of course, knowing when to sell is part of selling.

...and with all this talk, @Ed Mack just sits back and worries about nothing.

[biking_tiger]

5 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

...and with all this talk, @Ed Mack just sits back and worries about nothing.

...because knowing you aren't going to sell is part of collecting.

[meowsmeowsmeows]

9 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

...because knowing you aren't going to sell is part of collecting.

Until your wife wants her storage space back

 

[Martae54]

Meanwhile only 5 sellers left on EBay selling DS  for less than $600... With shipping of course..

Edited March 21, 2016 by Martae54

[Ciglione]

1 minute ago, Martae54 said:

Meanwhile only 5 sellers left on EBay trying to sell DS  for less than $600... With shipping of course..

Fixed it for you.

[Darth_Raichu]

23 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

touché

Of course, knowing when to sell is part of selling.

Yep, right before the next remake, unless there is a race to get out of the boat at that point

[Martae54]

2 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Fixed it for you.

Yeah 4 sold for $580- $600 yesterday.. So I would say they won't have to try hard!!

[newbie77]

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

Exactly. You can't use hindsight until afterwards. I got my re and bids and ant man at more than 20 percent off so I made even more. My rule just makes my winners big winners

btw which birds are we talking about? #20301 ? 

with regard to RE or any other sets, its not always possible to hit/score a discount. those Time Machine only works for few and for most folks like in our area.. it would have been luck to have seen RE or Antman at RRP. they were very very scarce.

Edited March 21, 2016 by newbie77

[redcell]

Umm, maybe because it does have an impact on how a product performs.

When a product has retired and is no longer available, the fact that it is labeled retired has no effect on its performance. If you think otherwise, please explain.

[redcell]

I agree that there is no need to worry about this set, long term. Reasonable people shouldn't be expecting this set to double out of the gate

Regarding my comment - There have been so many false retirements that have come back to life, so until we see that tag, there is always some level of uncertainty. Also, when an end user searches for the Death Star, and sees the "Retired" tag, they are much more willing to pay the premium.

I could understand someone questioning the level of relevance of the retirement tag, but to state that they find it baffling as to why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs?

Regarding the DS, it will have some unusual performance issues. Too many people had to wait a very long time for it to retire. It was expensive. Many will feel the need to cash in at least some of their chips. Some newer investors with limited resources (likely looking for the quick score) will not stick around. Add to that the real/unreal fear of the new set, and you certainly will be having some initial issues. Not awful necessarily, but it certainly will be limiting gains for the short term performance.

Ok, I agree that there is uncertainty until the retired tag appears, but what evidence do you have to support your assertion that certainty on retirement status has a material impact on how a set performs. What drives a set's post-EOL performance is the normal supply/demand curve. When a set sells out at LEGO Shop at Home and dries up at other retailers, those are informational triggers that increase demand and affect performance, but the actual retired tag comes so far after the fact that it is essentially meaningless from a performance perspective. If it was material, we would see the price of retired sets increase materially following the tag. I'm not aware of there being any bump like that in the pricing of set when there is the normal lag between sold out status and retired status.

[Ed Mack]

2 hours ago, exciter1 said:

...and with all this talk, @Ed Mack just sits back and worries about nothing.

Not true.  I am not happy with remakes.  I am not happy with counterfeiting.  I have realistic expectations and believe in the product.  I see how my son reacts to the LEGO brick and realize there will always be LEGO fans, just like me.  I know that long term, not much has changed.   After many impatient resellers will unload their stockpiles for little gain, I will be able to see appreciation that is close to historical values.  Patience will be rewarded.