10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Rimmit]

26 minutes ago, Manse1001 said:

I don't disagree, as I said I was merely pointing out the fact that I just can't get my head round the fact that people just expect sets to double over night due to them being officially retired by Lego !

Some of the newer investors might be somewhat irked that a set did not double in a couple months, however, most older investors know that this game is one of patience.

However, I think what makes most people concerned is that the time it takes to double has increased over the last 2-3 years.

What makes this set in particularly concerning is the sheer VOLUME of sets that is out there.  Whether this set was hoarded significantly matters less with this set than any other exclusive, because the volume of sets available is higher than any other set over $200 EVER.  Given how long it was available, I am betting it could even compete with sets in the $100-$200 range in terms of number of sets made. 

Because of the extreme supply for a $400 dollar set, it will make this a mountain to climb in order to reach $800.  As Brickology stated, there are currently approximately  for sale on Amazon just to get the price to $560.  Many seller's don't even put their full inventory in order to create an artificial feeling of scarcity.  When you add to cart and see only 1 available, you are more apt to panic buy than seeing 20.  Lots of seller's just keep relisting after a sell, in order to create the image of less inventory, and you are buying the last one from them at that price.  There are over 200 sellers on Amazon alone, and that does not include people not even posting inventory yet.  Plus, the used market is in a constant flux.  With the sheer number of Timmy's and AFOL's out there that have built this set, it has so many available used sets, that will affect the MISB market to some degree.  Someone is always selling off their kids toys, or there is a change in life situation, and with the number of built sets, there will be a steady supply of these as well.   

For this set to reach $800 it will take FOREVER.  Some people have the mentality of, "Well, the money is spent, what does it matter.  Enjoy the ride and wait to see where it goes.  I already spent the money, so I can't change anything."  Well, while the money is already spent, there is an opportunity cost associated by having your money and storage locked up in 10188.  While 10188 is piddling around, hovering at $540-$560, other sets are coming and going, increasing in value faster.  Given the 8 years it took to retire, you could in that time have flipped sets 2-3 times in that time span.  That is a significant loss, just because you are holding onto 10188, waiting for that magical cash out point.

The point is while patience is the name of the game, too much patience costs money in lost opportunity.  This set due to volume is not a "Money Loser" per say from an appreciation standpoint.  This set will assuredly make money.  I don't think anyone is arguing that.  It is a "Money Loser" because it was an expensive and large set that is preventing someone from investing in other endeavors.  The rate of appreciation on this set due to volume will likely be soooo slow that people will do better cashing out, and flipping something else.

Edited March 21, 2016 by Rimmit

[eracine]

I am not an expert but in five years.........

[exciter1]

23 minutes ago, eracine said:

I am not an expert but in five years.........

Heck, I even think the "experts" said this all along.

[asharerin]

What is most concerning to me is that alot of the bigger exclusives that have already retired have had zero gains over the past year or negative gains. And that is with no rehash in sight. In 5 years we could very well be on the 3rd iteration of 10188. 

IMO holding for 5 years is no longer a sure thing and extremely risky with this product. With more pieces being pumped out by TLG than ever and more resellers making sure the supply of those pieces is larger than ever demand can simply not keep up with the supply. Lego will always be a cool toy but as a store of value it is diminishing quickly.

[exciter1]

1 minute ago, asharerin said:

What is most concerning to me is that alot of the bigger exclusives that have already retired have had zero gains over the past year or negative gains. And that is with no rehash in sight. In 5 years we could very well be on the 3rd iteration of 10188. 

IMO holding for 5 years is no longer a sure thing and extremely risky with this product. With more pieces being pumped out by TLG than ever and more resellers making sure the supply of those pieces is larger than ever demand can simply not keep up with the supply. Lego will always be a cool toy but as a store of value it is diminishing quickly.

It depends on your risk tolerance too.

[denosya]

Was sold for 1560€ on ebay.fr

http://www.ebay.fr/itm/LEGO-star-wars-10188-etoile-de-la-mort-Death-star-UCS-/172101505028?hash=item28120c9004:g:XmsAAOSwezVWwJGQ

I guess someone made the confusion with the "UCS" version...

 

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, Rimmit said:

Some of the newer investors might be somewhat irked that a set did not double in a couple months, however, most older investors know that this game is one of patience.

However, I think what makes most people concerned is that the time it takes to double has increased over the last 2-3 years.

What makes this set in particularly concerning is the sheer VOLUME of sets that is out there.  Whether this set was hoarded significantly matters less with this set than any other exclusive, because the volume of sets available is higher than any other set over $200 EVER.  Given how long it was available, I am betting it could even compete with sets in the $100-$200 range in terms of number of sets made. 

Because of the extreme supply for a $400 dollar set, it will make this a mountain to climb in order to reach $800.  As Brickology stated, there are currently approximately  for sale on Amazon just to get the price to $560.  Many seller's don't even put their full inventory in order to create an artificial feeling of scarcity.  When you add to cart and see only 1 available, you are more apt to panic buy than seeing 20.  Lots of seller's just keep relisting after a sell, in order to create the image of less inventory, and you are buying the last one from them at that price.  There are over 200 sellers on Amazon alone, and that does not include people not even posting inventory yet.  Plus, the used market is in a constant flux.  With the sheer number of Timmy's and AFOL's out there that have built this set, it has so many available used sets, that will affect the MISB market to some degree.  Someone is always selling off their kids toys, or there is a change in life situation, and with the number of built sets, there will be a steady supply of these as well.   

For this set to reach $800 it will take FOREVER.  Some people have the mentality of, "Well, the money is spent, what does it matter.  Enjoy the ride and wait to see where it goes.  I already spent the money, so I can't change anything."  Well, while the money is already spent, there is an opportunity cost associated by having your money and storage locked up in 10188.  While 10188 is piddling around, hovering at $540-$560, other sets are coming and going, increasing in value faster.  Given the 8 years it took to retire, you could in that time have flipped sets 2-3 times in that time span.  That is a significant loss, just because you are holding onto 10188, waiting for that magical cash out point.

The point is while patience is the name of the game, too much patience costs money in lost opportunity.  This set due to volume is not a "Money Loser" per say from an appreciation standpoint.  This set will assuredly make money.  I don't think anyone is arguing that.  It is a "Money Loser" because it was an expensive and large set that is preventing someone from investing in other endeavors.  The rate of appreciation on this set due to volume will likely be soooo slow that people will do better cashing out, and flipping something else.

You are making too much sense. You are not going to be liked very well around here

51 minutes ago, eracine said:

I am not an expert but in five years.........

Let's put it this way, fans of this set have been waiting 3-7 years for its retirement, what's 5 more years between friends

[Rimmit]

27 minutes ago, denosya said:

Was sold for 1560€ on ebay.fr

http://www.ebay.fr/itm/LEGO-star-wars-10188-etoile-de-la-mort-Death-star-UCS-/172101505028?hash=item28120c9004:g:XmsAAOSwezVWwJGQ

I guess someone made the confusion with the "UCS" version...

 

I think they more likely confused UCS for Money Laundering.

[Guest]

I have two I bought at around $300. Like I said before, they are used as tables in my office. I would hate to lose my tables. Looks like I will have my tables for at least another 3 years or so.

[Val-E]

41 minutes ago, asharerin said:

What is most concerning to me is that alot of the bigger exclusives that have already retired have had zero gains over the past year or negative gains. And that is with no rehash in sight. In 5 years we could very well be on the 3rd iteration of 10188. 

IMO holding for 5 years is no longer a sure thing and extremely risky with this product. With more pieces being pumped out by TLG than ever and more resellers making sure the supply of those pieces is larger than ever demand can simply not keep up with the supply. Lego will always be a cool toy but as a store of value it is diminishing quickly.

Mid term hold is no longer profitable as sets are losing value after the post EOL bump, quick flipping has already proved not to be for some sets (SW, Advents) so when that transfers to all sets because they are all over hoarded, the only investment alternatives will be 0 cost buy in or long long term hoard. If everyone goes long then that won´t be profitable either but then the market will have weeded out most of the fairweather investors and supply should eventually go back to lower levels that will make it proifitable again. What cannot be estimated is the demand side - what will happen if Lego and/or SW becomes less popular than it is now?

[RogerWilco]

At least you folks got a discount on them. I was never able to figure out a way to get a discount on this behemoth. I only have 2, and one is for me, but I paid full price + CA tax ....  

[exciter1]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Mid term hold is no longer profitable as sets are losing value after the post EOL bump, quick flipping has already proved not to be for some sets (SW, Advents) so when that transfers to all sets because they are all over hoarded, the only investment alternatives will be 0 cost buy in or long long term hoard. If everyone goes long then that won´t be profitable either but then the market will have weeded out most of the fairweather investors and supply should eventually go back to lower levels that will make it proifitable again. What cannot be estimated is the demand side - what will happen if Lego and/or SW becomes less popular than it is now?

Good to know I don't have to check back until this time 2018 to assess the mid-term status.

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Good to know I don't have to check back until this time 2018 to assess the mid-term status.

That sounds like a very good idea.

[mfortunek]

1 minute ago, RogerWilco said:

At least you folks got a discount on them. I was never able to figure out a way to get a discount on this behemoth. I only have 2, and one is for me, but I paid full price + CA tax ....  

And that's just it. Full RRP + tax on virtually any exclusive is going to leave you right at the break even point after selling fees and shipping. If you sell a DS for $550 on eBay for example (approx. current going rate) you're at about $440 after eBay/PayPal fees and shipping costs, which is within 10 bucks of what you paid for it at full RRP plus tax.

So something's got to give or you've only got the aforementioned two choices - hold forever (risk a remake) or liquidate now (just to break even). So how do you create a third option of selling one to two years post-retirement to minimize risk and still make a very meaningful profit?

It's not about what you can do now, it's about what you needed to do then.

Because if you'd scratched out a way to obtain those same DS for $360 (including any tax) some time last year, you've got about 80 bucks worth of wiggle room now that makes quite a difference in terms of how you view the situation and your options.

I'm holding about 40 large exclusives at the moment that have all retired in the last year (DS,ToO,R5,MSC,Tumbler) or *allegedly* (cough) on the verge of retiring (PS,EV), in addition to other "might as well be exclusives due to size and/or popularity" like AT-AT,ISD,etc. and "maybe retiring in a year or two" (another cough) like SC,Slave1,PC,FM,etc.

Obviously 40 is a small number around here, especially when you clarify that is all of them (combined). I've got a dozen Tumblers and 3 or 4 of everything else.

So I'm not going to win any volume prizes, but the average total cost of everything I'm holding is right around 20% less than RRP. My three DS were $375, my MSC around $195, my dozen Tumblers at a cool $143, Slave I at $145, FM at $122, ISD at $83, etc. These are all averages for each individual set, and always include any tax I might have paid. I maintain an excel spreadsheet that keeps track of all of this.

I don't buy a lot of anything because I can't score these prices every day. I have to wait for them. I have to prepare for the right moment, and then when I'm ready I only have enough "magic" to get one, never two or three.

One example: I stock up on TRU gift cards at about 20-25% off flipping eBay GC and eBay bucks and just being patient and waiting for the best GC deals. Then I wait for the 20% off coupon, then I find the Slave I in store at TRU, then I pounce. $127.

There are other avenues that I won't go into but most involve eBay bucks promos mixed with gift card deals that pop up and other SAH promos, etc. I was holding about $300 worth of well-discounted eBay GC a couple months ago and a 5x bucks promo hit and a brand new Sandcrawler popped up for $270 and I bought it, coming out to a grand total of about $221. It showed up in near mint condition (as good as what I get from SAH) and now it sits in the closet acquired for almost 25% off RRP. 

So I only pull the trigger when I have the perfect storm in place, which doesn't happen very often. For example last fall when Target had 15% off on all exclusives for about 12 hours and this whole site went bananas, I didn't buy a single thing because I didn't have discounted Target GC and couldn't obtain them on such short notice. 15% off minus 7% tax is only 8% off MSRP, not even close to the 20% off I'm looking for.

My storage space is pretty limited so I'd rather wait and get those exclusives slowly, one at a time, over time, paying my prices, than get them just to have them because there's a small sale going on.

Sorry this kind of derailed from the DS thread, but it was intended to be pertinent to the DS situation.

[Guest]

I don't think it is coincidence that many prices are leveling off at msrp + tax + shipping + fees....

[mfortunek]

2 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

I don't think it is coincidence that many prices are leveling off at msrp + tax + shipping + fees....

Exactly my point. Unless you want to sit with everybody in that same big boat, you have to do something differently than them.

Edited March 21, 2016 by mfortunek

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

Exactly my point. Unless you want to sit with everybody in that same big boat, you have to do something differently than them.

I have been called a fool for stating this before, but again, I don't even think about buying something unless it is 20%+ off.

[biking_tiger]

3 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

I have been called a fool for stating this before, but again, I don't even think about buying something unless it is 20%+ off.

If the boat wasn't so crowded, I'd agree you were missing opportunities. But now, well...

[Val-E]

There have been some recent sets that have turned a better profit at RRP than some bought at 20% off, you never can make a hard and fast rule. Usually, however, it is because they had restricted supply so the horde was caught out and their RRP was low to begin with. 10188 was still up 40% on RRP here during the craziness at the beginning of January so a smart flipper could have made good money even  buying the last December stock at full whack and flipping a month later.

The temptation is to hold for longer and think the appreciation curve won´t change but the recent trend for exclusives  seems to have been a 3 week strong growth period followed by market saturation as the price reaches most sellers´ basic target then a period of slow decline back down to 20% above RRP. Seeing as we are now out of winter it´s likely prices won´t evolve much until the Rogue One hype kicks in Q4 - perhaps with a little blip for May 4th.

[Alpinemaps]

I have been called a fool for stating this before, but again, I don't even think about buying something unless it is 20%+ off.

Makes me wonder if the post EOL bump is really just explained by that.

[Val-E]

If there are resellers who apply a minimum % off buy-in as part of their strategy, there are also those that refuse to buy before a set is showing clear signs of being done and are prepared to pay a premium for that "peace of mind". I guess there are also the buyers who never got round to ordering the set and are forced to do act upon fear the price will spike (and in doing so help the price to spike). False sales registered to give the impression of demand (I often see sets sell for unfathomably high prices on brickset but wonder if the deal really went through) may also be a factor and there will be tens more possible reasons to add to the mix

As most exclusives retire just before Christmas, there is the factor of people buying them as gifts or with gifted money too.

I doubt we will ever get a true explanation for the bump, until there isn´t one anymore and even then it will probably be a combination of many reasons.

[MarleyMoose]

High Hopes for the long haul. I bought one used pretty cheap for myself and only have 2 NIB. Small fishy...

[Guest]

1 hour ago, biking_tiger said:

If the boat wasn't so crowded, I'd agree you were missing opportunities. But now, well...

5 years ago I bought sets above msrp and still doubled my money. I don't think that can happen anymore.

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

5 years ago I bought sets above msrp and still doubled my money. I don't think that can happen anymore.

Raptor Escape and Birds did just that and there will be more where they come from but the hit to miss ratio is definitely getting less favourable.

 

[exciter1]

8 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

5 years ago I bought sets above msrp and still doubled my money. I don't think that can happen anymore.

I'm that guy, Ant-Man!